| DAILY ALERT |
Thursday, July 9, 2026 |
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
The U.S. carried out airstrikes against Iran on Tuesday after revoking a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil around the world, in a dual response to Iranian attacks on three commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including a Saudi oil tanker and a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier. Senior U.S. officials asserted that the Iranians had chosen the path of aggression despite being well aware of the consequences. Iranian officials announced that the U.S. had violated the June 18 agreement intended to end the war. (New York Times) See also U.S. Forces Complete New Round of Retaliatory Strikes Against Iran U.S. Central Command struck over 80 targets in Iran with precision munitions on July 7 as an immediate response to Iran's latest attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking international commerce. The unwarranted aggression by Iranian forces is a clear and dangerous violation of the ceasefire and undermines freedom of navigation. (CENTCOM) See also U.S. Forces Complete Second Round of Strikes Against Iran U.S. Central Command completed an additional round of strikes against Iran on July 8 to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces struck 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. (CENTCOM) See also Iran Targets Sites in Bahrain, Kuwait after Wave of U.S. Strikes Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they carried out joint missile and drone attacks against U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait on Wednesday and Thursday after the U.S. launched a wave of military strikes on Iran in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters) See also NATO Chief: New U.S. Attacks on Iran Were Absolutely Necessary The new attacks by the U.S. on Iran were "absolutely necessary," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Wednesday. "When you have a ceasefire and Iran is basically violating the ceasefire, I think it is totally crucial that the U.S. forcefully react," he said. (Reuters) U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran to end the conflict was "over," adding he didn't want to engage with Tehran. "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them," Trump said. "They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by sick people. As far as I'm concerned, it's just a waste of time dealing with them." (Reuters) Two Romanian nationals - Nandito Badea, 21, and George Stana, 25 - have been jailed for stabbing Pouria Zeraati, an Iran International journalist, on behalf of the Iranian regime in an attempt to "silence" him in March 2024 as he walked to his car near his home in Wimbledon. Stana was sentenced to 12 years in prison and Badea to eight, after being convicted last month of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said: "For anyone to act on behalf of Iran and to plan and carry out an attack on a journalist, on British soil, is deplorable. Today's sentence sends a clear message to the Iranian regime and those who do its bidding." Justice Cheema-Grubb said the victim "was not selected at random. He had previously been subject to threats," and there had been posters in the Iranian capital Tehran with his photograph and the words "Wanted. Dead or alive." (BBC) See also Two Sentenced over Targeted Knife Attack on Iran International Journalist (Crown Prosecution Service-UK) President Trump said Tuesday he would consider selling the F-35 jet fighter to Turkey, setting up a potential showdown with U.S. lawmakers who have long opposed such a deal. During his visit to Ankara for a NATO summit meeting on Tuesday, he said, "it's something certainly we'd consider." In 2017, Erdogan approved Turkey's import of a Russian S-400 air-defense system, a move that triggered American sanctions. The first Trump administration removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter program in response. U.S. officials are concerned that the Russian air-defense system could gather data about the F-35, including its radar signature, and send it to Moscow. In 2020, Congress passed a law that explicitly barred the U.S. from allowing Turkey back into the F-35 program until Turkey agrees to remove all S-400 systems and commits to never acquiring them or other Russian systems that could compromise the high-end jet fighter. Congress remains staunchly opposed to offering Ankara a way back into the program unless it relinquishes its Russian air-defense systems. U.S. lawmakers who traveled to Ankara for the NATO summit said they would welcome Turkey rejoining the F-35 program if there is a solution on the S-400 first. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the issue needed to be "dealt with in a way that doesn't give Russia the ability to use the S-400 to figure out how we're building the F-35." (Wall Street Journal) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Israel is urging the U.S. to block a possible F-35 sale to Turkey, or at least provide Ankara with downgraded versions of the advanced stealth fighter if the deal goes ahead, Israeli officials said. Israel's Security Cabinet was briefed Tuesday on the emerging F-35 deal between Washington and Ankara. Israel assesses that the sale can still be prevented. Israel has told Washington that funds for Hamas and Hizbullah pass through Turkey and that President Trump could condition any assistance to Turkey on shutting down bank accounts and other financial channels. "Our air superiority will be preserved in any case, but of course we want it preserved even more strongly," a senior Israeli official said. "There are many versions of this aircraft, and we are trying to influence this as much as possible." Israel is expected to work with Congress in an attempt to block the F-35 deal, relying on U.S. laws requiring Washington to preserve Israel's qualitative military edge. Those laws require consultations with Israel and possible compensation, such as upgraded versions of aircraft, if a regional arms sale could affect Israel's military advantage. An Israeli security official said Tuesday that F-35s in Turkey's hands are not expected to harm the IDF's freedom of action, "but they will challenge us. For now, we are focused on preventing it. It is not clear that this is possible, but we are not giving up." (Ynet News) Assessments presented to Israel's Security Cabinet described Israel's situation in Lebanon as "excellent." Under the Israel-Lebanon agreement, Israeli officials say Israel received international legitimacy to remain in a security zone 8-10 km. deep inside Lebanese territory and continue clearing and dismantling terrorist infrastructure until Hizbullah is dismantled. "This is a huge achievement for Israel, remaining in the territory with authority and permission while the IDF continues to operate and dismantle infrastructure," a senior Israeli official said. The IDF is expected to hand over two pilot areas to the Lebanese army. According to a senior Israeli official, it will take at least several weeks before the Lebanese army is ready to assume responsibility for them. However, the official said, "We assess that the Lebanese army cannot dismantle Hizbullah and that ultimately we will have to do it ourselves, on our own timetable. We will prepare ourselves with intelligence and everything else that is needed. But at least during this period we remain in a security zone, keep the enemy away from our communities, remove the threat and thoroughly clear the entire area for complete sterilization, something that has never happened before." In Gaza, Israel is pushing Hamas into a smaller area along the coast in order to clear the territory, the Israeli official said. "We drill, destroy tunnels, and gradually deepen the clearing and purification of all terrorist infrastructure in Gaza....Gaza is in ruins. There is no reconstruction....We have full freedom of action. All the headlines claiming Hamas is rebuilding are complete nonsense. It has very limited ability to rebuild because we control everything that enters. So yes, it has some smuggling here and there, but it is not a dramatic development that changes reality." (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran With Iran's renewed attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran's hard-line leaders are relying on their control of the waterway for leverage in talks with the U.S. as they feel their grip weaken as more ships slip through. Tehran watched with rising alarm as traffic that was deterred from crossing during the war now ply the U.S.-backed route near Oman. (Wall Street Journal) "The U.S. is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway," U.S. Central Command said on July 8. The U.S. is seeking to seize the initiative or at least shape the battlefield and determine the tempo of operations. Iran's regime believes it can outlast the U.S. It also believed the U.S. would refrain from strikes during the week-long funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. (Jerusalem Post) See also White House Preparing for Prolonged Iran Conflict over Hormuz - Shoshana Baker The White House is preparing for what could turn into a multi-day or even multi-week exchange of fire with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials told Axios on Thursday. The duration and intensity of the new campaign depend entirely on Iran's upcoming actions. The White House believes it has more room to escalate because hundreds of oil tankers have successfully navigated through the strait in recent weeks. "That has eased concerns within the administration that a renewed clash would immediately trigger a major oil price spike," the officials said. "They started shooting, and we decided it's time to slap them back hard. It's a process. We have patience. If we don't feel we're getting the deal we want, we are not going to do it," another U.S. official said. (Jerusalem Post) Iran, fearing that its hold over the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was gradually slipping away, risked overplaying its hand by again firing on oil tankers and potentially rekindling a major war with the U.S., analysts said. The basic bargain in the Memorandum of Understanding was that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping in exchange for badly needed economic relief. Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran analyst and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said, "The view from Tehran is that the U.S. is engaged in a concerted effort to take control of the Strait out of Iran's hands, to weaken its position in Lebanon, and to regain its own strength in order to put even more pressure on Iran." The perception by Iran that it had bested the U.S. and Israel in the war earlier this year likely helped lead to the renewed confrontation, analysts said. The message from Iran was that it intended to enforce a newfound chokehold over the strait. The U.S., which had lifted oil sanctions against Iran that had been in place for decades, immediately reimposed them. "They risk misreading President Trump, which they have done over and over again," said Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former special envoy for Syria during the first Trump administration. Iran has a long habit of taking provocative actions like firing on the tankers and then acting as the aggrieved party, he said. "They are overplaying their hand." (New York Times) President Trump's decision to launch new airstrikes on Iran came after envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reported that the Iranian negotiating partner, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, said he could not guarantee that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would not continue firing on ships and tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The Revolutionary Guards' leadership decided to break the understandings for calm during the mourning period for Ali Khamenei and insist on the principle of long-term control over Hormuz, requiring all ships to receive passage approval and pay for it. This conduct directly contradicts a clause in the memorandum of understandings that stipulates completely free movement through the strait. That clause led to the U.S. concession of lifting the blockade and sanctions. Intelligence officials in Israel and the U.S. conclude that the Revolutionary Guards' leadership believes it can extract more concessions from the Americans in the near future, and are prepared to endanger oil exports, which were now flowing at a rapid pace. (Israel Hayom) Iran's leadership is seeking to present the funeral processions for Iran's former leader, Ali Khamenei, as a show of force in an effort to demonstrate its victory and strength. The mass turnout cannot be ignored, evidence that the regime is able to maintain support among several million citizens who are loyal to it for ideological reasons or depend on it for their livelihood. However, there are several fundamental problems that cannot be concealed. The continued absence of leader Mojtaba from public view is raising questions. A series of meetings was held on the sidelines of the funeral ceremonies between senior regime officials and representatives of the "resistance front," including Hamas, Hizbullah, the Lebanese Shiite Amal, and the Houthis. The officials stressed the Islamic Republic's continued support for the pro-Iranian axis in the region and emphasized Tehran's commitment to linking negotiations with the U.S. to the Lebanese front, as well as Gaza. These statements reflect the leadership's growing confidence in its ability to achieve a regional order that recognizes Iran's status, given its success in inflicting significant damage on its neighbors and on the global economy. The writer is Director of the Iran and the Shi'ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). (Ynet News) The Islamic Republic has shown few signs of investing its resources toward fixing its expanding environmental problems. 11% of deaths and 52% of the burden of diseases in Iran are attributable to environmental risk factors, according to the World Health Organization. Excessive groundwater extraction has caused buildings and roads to crack and sometimes collapse. Iran's capital Tehran is ranked as having the worst levels of air pollution in the world. In 2025, local media reported 350 deaths caused by poor air quality within a ten-day period. Iran is now using its groundwater far faster than it can be naturally replenished. As a result, major lakes and wetlands are drying up. Lake Urmia - once the Middle East's largest saltwater lake - has dried out. Water shortages are undermining agriculture. The writer is Executive Co-Director of the Institute for Water, Environment and Health at United Nations University. (The Conversation) Gaza Hamas has announced that it is dissolving its de facto governing body and is prepared to hand authority to a committee of Palestinian technocrats. The announcement is merely Hamas's latest attempt to deceive the international community into believing that it is complying with the requirements of the Trump peace initiative, while preserving its military power. The key question is not who sits in ministerial offices in Gaza, but rather who holds the guns. Hamas admits that its ministries and thousands of employees will remain in place. Moreover, Hamas says it will continue overseeing security and policing in the areas still under its control. In other words, nothing essential has changed. As long as Hamas retains its military forces, every future civilian administration in Gaza will operate under the shadow of Hamas's guns. No technocratic government will be able to function independently. Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar wrote, "Hamas's apparent willingness to make room for a technocratic government is designed to prevent its own disarmament." He warned that Hamas seeks to replicate the Hizbullah model in Gaza. This is simply outsourcing civilian responsibilities while preserving the machinery of jihad (holy war). Both Israelis and Palestinians have already paid an unbearable price for repeatedly believing Hamas's promises. They cannot afford to make the same mistake again. (Gatestone Institute) The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) will fail if implemented, as only an emirate-style system in which dominant local clans govern independent districts can effectively rule Palestinian society there, Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a Middle East scholar and expert on Islamic affairs, told the Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. "Only the clans can run Gaza. But for this, you have to get rid of Hamas first," he said. Kedar said the clan system is "the only system which works well in the Arab world. Kuwait, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Oman. All these emirates and states in the Gulf are based on clans. And this is why they are flourishing. This is why they are stable." (Jerusalem Post) Hizbullah Hizbullah has spent four decades cultivating ideological loyalty, political influence, and future generations of supporters. The 1926 Lebanese Constitution guaranteed religious communities the right to run their own schools. With the emergence of Hizbullah, religious education among the Shiites of Lebanon shifted to a political mobilization project funded by Iran. Former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah frequently highlighted the strategic expansion of Hizbullah's private school networks (such as the Al-Mahdi and Al-Mustafa schools) as an extension of the group's core military and ideological mission. Nasrallah also framed the role of educators and religious leaders as a vanguard responsible for shaping public perception. Sheikh Naim Qassem, today Hizbullah's secretary general, is one of the founders of the Al-Mustafa school network, which caters primarily to the Shiite middle class and families of senior cadre. Hizbullah schools operate under directives of detachment from national identity. Values are adapted to promote ideas from outside the Lebanese national context. Education is not a tool for critical thinking but for "molding" the individual. There is one absolute truth, and all competing narratives are suppressed. Youth are taught that the highest achievement is self-sacrifice for the cause. Education systems identify a clear enemy to foster group cohesion through shared hatred. These institutions are designed to transform the Shiite community into a disciplined, ideologically uniform base, ensuring that the party's survival is anchored in the minds of the next generation. Hizbullah views education as a primary pillar of societal engineering and the building of a "resistance society." The writer, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Syria The Dar al-Wahi al-Sharif school network, affiliated with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), operates as part of the official education system of Syria's regime under the leadership of Ahmad al-Sharaa. HTS is the Sunni Islamist political and paramilitary organization that spearheaded the 2024 rebellion to oust President Assad. Under al-Sharaa's leadership, HTS now governs major parts of Syria. Throughout the religious curriculum, consistent messages appear of jihadist and anti-Israeli indoctrination, beginning in kindergarten and intensifying as students advance. Israel is consistently portrayed as "the Zionist enemy," while educational maps erase its existence and replace it with the name "Palestine." Educational materials frame the conflict as an ongoing religious struggle between Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. Jihad is presented as a desirable means of confronting unbelievers, while fighting Islam's enemies is portrayed as a religious obligation. (Alma Research & Education Center) Observations: Israel Is Not Isolated, Not Bloodthirsty - Amb. Michael Oren (Israel Hayom)
The writer was Israel's ambassador to the U.S., 2009-13. |
|