| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, July 28, 2026 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Oman has presented a proposal to Iran for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with voluntary fees, a Gulf source told Reuters on Tuesday. Under the proposal, which has regional backing, Iran would not exercise sole control of the vital waterway. (Reuters) Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, according to two sources. This impacted President Trump's decision on Friday to pause U.S. strikes against Iranian targets around the southern coast of Iran and in the Strait of Hormuz area. Cooper stressed that the two weeks of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area had significantly degraded Iran's ability to attack ships. (Axios) Saudi officials have no interest in another clash with the Houthis. Their previous bombing campaign in Yemen had turned into a decade-long quagmire that contributed to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis from violence, hunger and disease. "The Houthis have one solution for every problem in the world, which is go to war," said Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemen-focused fellow at Chatham House in London. "The Saudis solve every problem by trying to shower it with money, and the Houthis by shooting at it." The Houthis are acting in support of their main ally, Iran, but also to force Saudi Arabia and the international community to make political concessions in Yemen. In the past week, the Houthis have fired missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia and at ships in the Red Sea, while a Saudi-led military coalition has carried out airstrikes in Houthi-held territory for the first time in years. The Saudi response so far has been calibrated, said Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen at International Crisis Group. But if they hold back entirely, they risk emboldening the Houthis, he added. "The Saudis were cornered, and they feel like there will be a higher cost if they stay silent." (New York Times) See also Saudis Blame Iran-Backed Militias Based in Iraq for Drone Attacks - Ismaeel Naar Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted and destroyed several drones launched by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that had targeted petroleum facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh regions on Monday. The Saudi defense ministry said, "These terrorist attempts were launched from Iraqi territory and executed by Iranian-affiliated terrorist militias." (New York Times) Ukrainian drones have hit military-supply lines connecting Russia and Iran through the Caspian Sea, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky tweeted Saturday. The Security Service of Ukraine said it had launched drone strikes in the Caspian against ships used to transport Iranian drones to Russia. (Wall Street Journal) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
The Israeli Air Force intercepted an unmanned aerial vehicle detected near the Jordanian border on Tuesday morning for the second consecutive day, the IDF said. "The aircraft did not cross into Israeli territory, and the source of the launch is under investigation," the military said. On Monday the IDF intercepted two drones near the Jordanian border. Jordan also reported intercepting two drones over its territory on Monday. (Ynet News) See also Drones Intercepted over Jordan Likely Launched by Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias - James Genn (Jerusalem Post) Israel's Diplomatic-Security Cabinet on Sunday approved the entry of the multinational Board of Peace force into Gaza. "This is an international plan. It may not succeed, but we should not be the ones to undermine it," said Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar. The Board of Peace had already prepared the infrastructure needed to begin limited reconstruction work in areas free of Hamas. Logistics warehouses have been rented to distribute aid without using UN organizations, and a semi-military camp has been established along the border to house the multinational forces. (Israel Hayom) Lt.-Col. Ella Waweya, IDF spokesperson for the Arab world, was interviewed Saturday by Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya: Q: Some view the fact that you are Arab and Muslim, and now a spokesperson for the Israeli army, as you being part of a reputation-washing effort for the Israeli military. Waweya: I am very proud to be an Arab Muslim woman who belongs to her community and culture, and at the same time, I am proud in fulfilling my duty as a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces. Q: Don't you feel anger when there are dead children? Waweya: In every war, there are casualties. And this is also what happened in Israel, what happened in Gaza, what happened in Syria, what happened in Iraq, what happened in Yemen, what happened in Iran....But I believe, trust, and affirm that the Israel Defense Forces are among the most noble and honorable armies, and that is why I am here." (X) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran President Trump has been giving diplomacy a chance since April and he has little to show for it. As Trump learned last month, the price for a temporary opening of the strait is too high. Trump would not only have to commit to reviving the economy of a regime that struggles to pay its soldiers, but also concede that Hizbullah, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, had a right to continue to hold that country hostage. The negotiation to get the hard-liners in Tehran to sign a nuclear pact is folly. The main reason is that the nuclear program being negotiated has largely been destroyed. The only thing left to do is to secure what the president has called the "nuclear dust," what remains of the highly enriched uranium buried deep beneath the remains of Iran's underground facilities in Isfahan and Natanz. But at this point it's hardly necessary. Iran's regime, for now and in the near to medium term, cannot get to that material either. And even if they could, they no longer have the centrifuge cascades or the workshops to turn that uranium into a nuclear weapon. Even still, if U.S. sensors and satellites detect an effort to secure that material, our military has the capability to end those efforts as they begin. The right strategy now is to play a longer game. Stop trying to get the Iranians to admit defeat. For now, just keep the military and the blockade in place as they are. This will disabuse Iran's leaders of the hope that Trump is desperate to cut a deal that will revive its war machine and economy. When Trump threatens war only to back away, he only makes the battered and impoverished regime in Iran look stronger than they really are. Their nuclear program, built up over three decades at the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars and international sanctions and censure, is today largely rubble and ash. That is an accomplishment of Israeli and American arms. (Free Press) The New York Times claimed that President Trump had hesitated to expand the campaign against Iran due to a growing shortage of Patriot interceptors, increased vulnerability of Arab allies to Iranian retaliation, and concern over the broader economic consequences of continued fighting. Within the Iranian media ecosystem, however, reported hesitation quickly became proof that the strategic balance had shifted toward Iran. "America halted the escalation of war for fear of even heavier losses," declared Kayhan. When Trump insisted that the U.S. "had not retreated," the mere need to deny retreat was presented as evidence that the issue had already become central in Washington. A single Western report was amplified repeatedly until it evolved into a story of Iranian strategic victory. The original report concerned a pause in escalation. Iranian newspapers translated it into an American admission of defeat. Alongside the narrative of American retreat came a series of claims describing widespread Iranian attacks against U.S. bases across the region. The English-language Iran Daily declared that Iranian forces had "struck American bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait." Additional reports assigned operational names to the attacks, while claiming strikes against Amazon data centers in Bahrain and the near-total destruction of American infrastructure in Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan. However, adding names, locations, and operational details does not constitute verification. These claims should therefore be viewed as part of Tehran's messaging campaign rather than as verified operational facts. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia become an Iranian force multiplier. Yemen conducts the attacks, Saudi Arabia absorbs the immediate pressure, and Iran leverages higher energy prices to argue that the regional campaign is working in its favor. Tehran identified what it viewed as a possible moment of American hesitation and immediately converted it into an information asset. The hardline camp portrays Trump as a trapped president, American bases as destroyed, and rising oil prices as proof that Iran holds the initiative. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Uncertainty and drama have been part of Mr. Trump's deal-making since the 1970s. In his view, misdirection is key to the art of the deal. On top of that, Mr. Trump hopes to achieve ambitious objectives with limited costs, leading him to repeated bluffs, threats and tactical retreats as he maneuvers toward his goals. Iranian diplomacy is equally opaque. From the 1979-81 hostage crisis to the present day, Iran's leaders befuddled successive American administrations by allowing supposed "moderates" to propose agreements that "hard-liners" at home veto at will. In situations like this, one needs to pay less attention to speeches and short-term moves, and look at the facts shaping the antagonists' options. The Iranian regime, at least for now, has murdered its way to domestic security. Quite possibly no amount of economic suffering or isolation can overthrow the regime while its goons and thugs stand fast. Additionally, Iran has demonstrated its ability to hold the neighborhood hostage, restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and hitting energy infrastructure and American bases across the region. Given all this, many Iranians believe they are winning the war. But Iran has problems too. Assets and relationships cultivated over decades in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have been torched, and the longer the conflict lasts, the weaker Iran's regional networks are likely to become. And Iran can't indefinitely function as a society without economic relief. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Florida. (Wall Street Journal) The president has adopted a military strategy that can persist as long as he wants, with little likelihood of getting pulled into a quagmire (see Vietnam) or suckered into a humiliating retreat (recall Afghanistan). The president is not just throwing bombs, and then more bombs until the Iranians quit. Nor will he expand the war with a massive influx of ground troops. Trump's strategy is not escalation dominance; rather, he is de-risking - every time the Iranians fail to meet their obligations or retaliate, he takes more capabilities and assets of Iran off the table. Every day the U.S. pounds Iranian targets adds month and years to the timeline it would take them to be the threat they were just a year ago. The IRGC should not bet on the mid-terms as a political constraint on the president. It is clear he will not sacrifice strategic objectives for short-term political impact. The writer is vice president of the Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. (19FortyFive) In early July, the Iranian regime trashed the ceasefire deal it had reached with the U.S. by attacking three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Having negotiated an extraordinary package - ending sanctions, unfreezing assets, and establishing a $300 billion reparation fund - Iran made the seemingly nonsensical decision to pick a fight instead. Understanding why it did this is essential to figuring out how to handle the regime. When I was stationed in Iran for the British Foreign Service 20 years ago, I developed rules to explain the actions of the regime. Iranian leaders are focused single-mindedly on preserving their grip on power. They know that the overwhelming majority of Iranians despise them and that the people will not be forgiving if the regime is finally removed. Determination to stay in power guides the regime's actions. In that sense, Iranian leaders are rational - but that does not mean they are moderate. Iran's missile attacks on its neighbors was an expression of the regime's doctrine of building leverage by continuing to escalate. The writer is a former British ambassador to Israel and former deputy ambassador to Iran. (Washington Post) The Islamists in Iran don't want a favorable settlement. They will never give up their quest for regional hegemony or their mission of spreading their brand of fanatical Islam across the globe. While President Trump may be deeply frustrated with the failure of the military campaign to bring the regime to its knees as quickly as he would like, he is equally determined not to give up and let a terrorist regime have its way. The Islamic Republic has been at war with the U.S. since the Islamist regime seized power in 1979. It is responsible for killing hundreds of Americans and launching wars that caused the deaths of exponentially more people around the region, including the one that followed the Hamas-led Palestinian Arab assault in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Its nuclear ambitions are a direct threat to the U.S. as well as other countries in the Middle East. Contrary to the arguments of those who claim that Washington can simply walk away from this problem, this is a conflict where the defense of U.S. interests requires the defeat of America's antagonist. Far from an illegal or immoral foreign adventure, it is a just war that needs to be fought to a successful conclusion. Kicking the can down the road for a successor to deal with would be irresponsible and dangerous. The fighting will have to keep going until there is a government in Tehran that will accept American terms and be forced to abide by them. Trump may have already concluded that his worries about the midterms won't be fixed by letting the Iranians win. Having lost a war to terrorists will be worse for his party in November than to still be fighting one that is far from popular. Standing his ground on Iran will be a better position for him than waving the white flag. And in doing so, he will actually be rising to his responsibility of defending his nation and the West. (JNS) Israeli Security The London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat reported on July 19 that Egypt had concluded a joint military exercise with Turkey that brought together Egyptian airborne and commando units alongside Turkish special forces, part of an accelerating process of military rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara. The two countries signed a framework agreement on military cooperation during Turkish President Erdogan's visit to Cairo in February. Within a few months, the two militaries have conducted several joint exercises across air, land, and sea. Senior Israeli security officials noted that Egypt also held a series of operational meetings with the Pakistani Navy and has conducted a series of joint exercises over the past year. From Egypt's perspective, Pakistan represents a partner of considerable strategic value. According to senior Israeli security officials, the weakening of Iranian influence across several regional arenas, uncertainty surrounding future American engagement, the continuation of regional conflicts, and growing competition over trade routes and energy corridors are all driving Middle Eastern states to seek new regional security arrangements. Senior security officials say Egyptian officials have assured their American counterparts that expanding cooperation with Ankara and Islamabad should not be interpreted as the formation of an anti-Israel alliance. Nevertheless, Israeli security officials argue that the growing series of joint exercises, defense agreements, and high-level military exchanges among Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan indicates that a much broader strategic partnership is quietly taking shape. They are gradually building interoperable capabilities across the air, maritime, and special operations domains. Senior Israeli security officials say a new Sunni axis is emerging, preparing to fill the strategic vacuum expected to be left by the collapse of the Iranian-led Shiite "Axis of Resistance" following the anticipated fall of the regime in Tehran. The writer, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Lt.-Col. R., 34, commands the INS Dolphin submarine. After the Iran war began on Feb. 28, he says, "It was a very intense period. There was a great deal of uncertainty and missions changed at sea based on ongoing situation assessments." "We have seven operational theaters, and in every theater that includes a maritime arena, submarines can operate - whether on attack missions, defensive missions or intelligence-gathering missions. That applies to nearby theaters and distant ones, at every range you can imagine." "It is a large platform that can be anywhere, and the enemy never knows where it is....A submarine can operate covertly and remain opposite the coast for 24 hours or more. That way, you can see when their guard changes, what observation posts they have, whether they are lit, what equipment they are operating and where they are operating it. You can identify a vehicle arriving at a house, a motorcycle, even a single person." "When you're in a submarine, everything is fine. We're there, we're not in a hurry to go anywhere and no one can see us. That is an extraordinary advantage a submarine has that no other platform does." (Ynet News) Maj.-Gen. (res.) Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel, among the founders of Israel's modern cybersecurity apparatus, told the Jerusalem Post: "No matter what password you use, in a fraction of a second I will break it," describing what a mature quantum computer will do to the protections that banks, governments, and militaries rely on. For quantum computers, a calculation which would take a conventional machine a year could be finished almost instantly. Both cyber and AI were used heavily in the war against Iran, Ben-Israel said. Iran is vast, and a ballistic missile launcher can fire from anywhere. Combing satellite imagery meter by meter would take thousands of analysts thousands of years. An AI model trained to recognize launchers does it in a fraction of a second. The five-minute alerts Israelis received before the sirens would not have been possible without it. (Jerusalem Post) In May, Israel's Kela Technologies, a company that did not exist two years ago, became a unicorn with a $1.2 billion valuation. The company was founded in July 2024 by Alon Dror, a former senior official at the Ministry of Defense Directorate of Defense R&D and winner of the Israel Defense Prize, to develop command and control operating systems for border areas. After securing several outposts on the Jordanian border, Kela is significantly expanding its activities on the northern border, with dozens of additional outposts. Israeli defense exports reached $19.2b. in 2025, up from $14.8b. in 2024 - a fifth consecutive record. Israeli start-ups working with the Defense Ministry's R&D directorate raised more than $1b. in 2025, against $150m. in 2024. Since Oct. 2023, more than 130 Israeli start-ups have been folded into the war effort. (Jerusalem Post-Globes) Gaza Sir Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, boasted to Channel 4 News that he would lobby the prime minister to arrest Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu should he ever step foot in London, adding, "People who commit genocide are not welcome in London." It has become almost taboo to say it, but public figures such as the Mayor of London are wrong. Yes, there might be much suffering in Gaza, but there is certainly no genocide there. For almost two decades I served as the most senior lawyer in the British Armed Forces. War is messy and hellish. Things can, and often do, go badly wrong. Civilian casualties and death are a tragic feature of armed conflict, and they have been since the dawn of time. To pretend otherwise is a fantasy. Genocide is a very serious crime. Those who drafted the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in 1948 - against the background of the Nazi Holocaust - defined genocide as the "deliberate destruction of a human group." The definition was explicit that "the infliction of losses, even heavy losses, on the civilian population in the course of operation of war, does not as a rule constitute genocide." There is absolutely no evidence that demonstrates Israeli intent to destroy Palestinians generally or Gazans in particular. Indeed, the precautions they took throughout the war to warn civilians of impending attacks with leaflet drops and phone calls, the facilitation of aid to civilians in Gaza and the Rules of Engagement for their soldiers, all demonstrate the opposite. Israel even facilitated mid-war an emergency polio vaccination program for 640,000 Gazan children under the age of 10 - hardly the action of a country committing genocide. Israel's aim to destroy a terrorist organization intent on its elimination is legitimate. International law is being subverted and redefined by highly ideological campaigners. They abuse it to advance their obsession with the world's only Jewish state, while unforgivably overlooking the clear evidence of Hamas's own genocidal intent. If anyone is guilty of genocide it is Hamas, not Israel. Every time lawful military action is casually described as a war crime, the ability of the UK and its democratic allies to defend their citizens will be eroded. Ultimately that will make us all less safe. The writer served in the Royal Navy for 31 years and then as Judge Advocate General of the Armed Forces between 2004 and 2020. (Telegraph-UK) The body of Lt. Hadar Goldin was abducted by Hamas terrorists into Gaza after a ceasefire on August 1, 2014, and hidden for more than 11 years, until it was finally returned in November 2025. The State of Israel, the IDF and the security services attempted many operations to bring Goldin back and obtain intelligence about the place where Hamas was holding his body. A small intelligence team named "Bring Back Your Sons" managed to locate Goldin's body. The team was established by Col. M., 51, who led the intelligence effort that accompanied the special operations to locate and return Goldin to Israel for nine years. After Oct. 7, M. became a key figure for the entire issue of hostages and missing persons, and led numerous intelligence and operational deceptions designed to provide real information about the fate of all the hostages. Intensive intelligence work located the tunnel in Rafah where Goldin's body was being held four years before Oct. 7 and during the war the IDF avoided bombing the tunnel. The start of the IDF operation in Rafah finally made it possible to try to reach him. As forces reached the main shaft, the fighting there was difficult and complicated. "It was far beyond ordinary," M. said. "Stubborn fighting by Hamas operatives took place there, with many blockages, secret doors, booby traps. There were three levels there and a route of about 7 km." In July 2024, during the tunnel search, the forces tried to open one of the secret doors, and then shouting was heard from the other side and fire was opened at the soldiers. It emerged that these were the bodyguards of Mohammed Sinwar and Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Mohammed Shabana and this was their command center. Following that incident, the two fled and their escape led to the flight and collapse of the entire Hamas Rafah Brigade. When forces later killed Shabana, it emerged that he had been carrying Goldin's personal weapon. (Ynet News) New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani released an official video that repeated his false narrative that a "genocide" had been committed. In Mamdani's world, it is Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu that brought on devastation in Gaza, not Hamas. Listening to Mamdani, you might think it was Netanyahu that started that war on Oct. 7. You might be led to believe that it was Netanyahu who savagely murdered 1,200 in Israel that day. Or that it was Netanyahu who fired rockets at Israel, built tunnels with aid money, and used his own citizens as human shields in orchestrating the war against Israel. Why do people continue to reject overwhelming evidence that Israel has been defending itself against brutal terrorists, when it appears clear and compelling? One reason is psychological "cognitive dissonance" when facts conflict with deeply held beliefs. Protecting one's identity and staying aligned with one's family and community usually overwhelmingly trumps the truth. We are in a perfect storm when it comes to the rejection of the truth. For years we were fed with new ideological frameworks that include newly created concepts like "Islamophobia" but have left out antisemitism almost entirely, despite the fact that statistics show that the Jewish community is the most targeted group for racism and discrimination. It's going to take generations to overcome the distortion and denial that has taken place since Oct. 7. The writer is chairman and CEO of the Abraham Global Peace Initiative, a Canadian think-tank. (National Post-Canada) Syria Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's statement that Damascus is working toward a security agreement with Israel deserves serious scrutiny. While this could represent a strategic opportunity, opportunity must not be confused with certainty. The Syrian regime remains fragile, its control over the country is partial, and figures with jihadist backgrounds have been incorporated into state institutions. It would therefore be a mistake to portray al-Sharaa as a man of peace who has undergone a complete transformation or reject all dialogue on the grounds that it must necessarily be a trap. The right question is not merely whether al-Sharaa is a partner, but whether an arrangement can be designed that will protect Israel even if his intentions change or if his government is not strong enough to enforce its commitments. Renewed dialogue with Damascus should therefore not be based on trust in al-Sharaa or his intentions. It should rest on an agreement that reduces risks and formally safeguards Israel's essential security interests from the outset. Effective security arrangements and the demilitarization of southwestern Syria must be established. The area must be free of heavy weapons, strategic systems, armed militias and any foreign military presence that threatens Israel. The Druze issue must be included among Israel's demands. These should include guarantees of security and political representation, as well as an end to severe sectarian violence. In the Middle East, a good agreement is measured not only by the intentions expressed on the day it is signed, but by its ability to withstand violations the next day. The writer is head of the Syria research field at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). (Israel Hayom) Observations: Collapse of the Blood Libels Against Israel - Maj. (ret.) Andrew Fox (Substack)
The writer, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, served for 16 years in the British Army. |
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