| DAILY ALERT |
Monday, March 30, 2026 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Four of Iran's key ballistic missile manufacturing locations and at least 29 ballistic missile launch sites have been damaged in the first four weeks of the U.S.-Israeli offensive, undermining Iran's central military strategy, according to a Washington Post review and analysis by experts. Strikes have destroyed aboveground launching facilities, temporarily blocked access to missiles stored underground, and halted Iran's ability to immediately build new missiles. But Iran's missile program has not been destroyed. "They're still shooting. That's a key indicator," said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. (Washington Post) Saudi Arabia's crucial East-West pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia has rolled out the contingency plan to boost exports through the pipeline to the Red Sea. Flotillas of tankers have redirected to the port of Yanbu, where crude exports have now reached 5 million barrels a day. The kingdom is also exporting 700,000-900,000 barrels a day of oil products. (Al Arabiya) Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani will not leave Lebanon despite being declared persona non grata and ordered to leave the country by Sunday, an Iranian diplomatic source told AFP. Hizbullah denounced the government decision, while the Shiite Amal party led by parliament speaker Nabih Berri joined Hizbullah ministers in boycotting a cabinet session in protest of the order. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry accused Sheibani of making statements "interfering in Lebanon's internal politics." French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot called the expulsion "a courageous decision." Lebanese authorities have banned Hizbullah's military activities as well as the presence and operations of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). (AFP-Al Arabiya) Tehran is exploiting Britain's "permissive environment" as a base for its Western intelligence-gathering and propaganda campaigns. The regime was accused of using Press TV, the English-language channel of Iran's state broadcaster, which has a studio in London, as a front to recruit assets. The channel has effectively created a "target list for terrorists" with its reports on Jewish charities, schools and community organizations. There have long been warnings about the threat posed by Iranian agents in Britain. (Telegraph-UK) Iraqi militias have attacked bases that host U.S. forces in Iraq for weeks. Flames rose from the embassy compound on March 17. Iran's proxies also struck hotels that they claim house U.S. servicemembers in Baghdad and in Iraqi Kurdistan. In southern Iraq, militia drones have targeted U.S.-operated energy infrastructure. (National Interest) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Even if the Iran war were to end now, the regime has been badly battered and is on the verge of collapse. A senior political-security official said the current pattern of sustained attrition is pushing Iran toward the limits of its economic and military capacity. A regional diplomatic source added that there is a significant gap between reports about the diplomatic contacts and the reality on the ground. Iran's oil exports have fallen from more than 2 million barrels a day to about 1.2 million, and revenues have dropped accordingly. The regime is facing a severe cash shortage. Many public-sector employees have not been paid, banking services have been disrupted, and cash machines have run dry. Inflation has soared to about 120% a year, and the local currency has lost much of its value. President Masoud Pezeshkian has even warned that the economy could collapse within weeks. A large share of Iranian assets abroad is held in China, but Iran is struggling to access it. Assets worth tens of billions of dollars are also being held in the UAE and were frozen after Iranian strikes on civilian and oil facilities in the Emirates. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, made clear that any future agreement must include compensation from Iran "for damage to infrastructure and civilians." (Israel Hayom) The IDF assessed on Saturday that it would finish targeting nearly all of Iran's key military industry sites in the coming days. IDF spokesman Effie Defrin said, "This means we will destroy most of the military production capabilities, and it will take the regime a long time to restore them." The IDF assessed that it is now close to having targeted around 90% of the key sites used to develop weapons that threaten Israel. (Times of Israel) Sgt. Liran Ben Zion, 19, was killed and an officer was seriously wounded in a Hizbullah anti-tank missile attack that struck a tank in southern Lebanon on Sunday. (Times of Israel) The IDF's LOTAR counterterrorism unit specializes in urban warfare. Maj. N., a company commander in the unit, said Sunday, "The fighters are creating a buffer between Lebanon and residents of the north....We continue our attacks even under a barrage of mortars. Rockets sometimes land among the forces, sometimes on targets we're on the way to clear." "Hizbullah also uses drones that drop explosives, so we constantly stay sharp - maintaining concealment while advancing quickly toward objectives. When that happens, we blend into the terrain, take whatever cover is available and wait for a lull. Some cling to rocks or buildings, while armored vehicle crews move into their vehicles." There are relatively few instances in which troops see the enemy directly. "You're being shot at constantly, whether direct or indirect fire. But on the other hand, you don't encounter militants around every corner....It's a much weaker enemy than what we faced during [the 2024] Israeli operation in the north but it is still firing." "Because of the nature of the fighting, things change instantly. There have been many times I set out with my troops to seize a target and saw Hizbullah attacking it with heavy rocket fire. So we shift to a reverse slope, recalculate direction and re-enter, attacking from an area the enemy didn't anticipate. That's happened to me several times." (Ynet News) The IDF said Monday it struck a Hizbullah cell in southern Lebanon over the weekend that was operating an ambulance while posing as paramedics. Hizbullah systematically uses ambulances to transfer weapons across the country, in order to attack Israel and IDF soldiers. The IDF said the incident highlighted Hizbullah's "cynical and systematic use of medical infrastructure and civilians for military purposes. In several recent incidents, Hizbullah has transported and hidden weapons using ambulances in several locations, operated command and control infrastructures from medical facilities, and transported terrorists in the combat zone while violating the special protection afforded to them and deliberately endangering civilian populations." (Jerusalem Post) The Israeli defense industry has recently tripled the pace at which it produces interceptor missiles and other aerial munitions. The pace is expected to increase to four times the usual rate within another few weeks. After the 12-day war with Iran last June, the Defense Ministry and the defense industries prepared to ramp up the pace of production, on the assumption that there was likely to be a second round of fighting during the first half of 2026. To this end, large quantities of explosives and other raw materials needed by the industry were imported into Israel in advance. At the same time, more than 200 U.S. cargo planes have landed in Israel from the U.S., mainly bringing U.S.-made munitions. (Ha'aretz) A lion and three lionesses arrived at the Haifa Zoo on Thursday as part of efforts to conserve the endangered species. The lions, all about a year and a half old, had been housed in zoos in the Czech Republic. El Al captain Roy Efodi said, "We were required to ensure precise conditions in the cargo compartment, including with an adjusted temperature, and to plan a flight path that would minimize air pockets and turbulence as much as possible." Whenever there are sirens warning of Iranian or Hizbullah missiles, zoo staff members herd the lions, along with other animals, into indoor chambers or rooms made of solid concrete to take shelter. (Times of Israel) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran Destroying Iran's means to project power is a vital part of achieving the strategic goals of the U.S. and Israel. The U.S. has not run out of options. It has not even used all of them. Option: Strike the economic center of gravity. Kharg Island handles 85-90% of Iran's oil exports. Seize it, disable it, or destroy export capacity. That is strategic paralysis. Option: Turn off the lights. Target the national power grid. Tehran and major urban centers go dark. Modern regimes rely on electricity for command and control, communications, and internal security coordination. Precision strikes on key substations and transmission nodes can create cascading outages without total destruction of infrastructure. This has been demonstrated in past conflicts. Option: Turn off the internet for the regime, turn it on for the population, through cyber warfare. Option: Control the Strait of Hormuz battlespace. Seize or neutralize key islands. Deny Iran the ability to threaten maritime traffic. Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands are critical terrain controlling access to the Strait. Qeshm Island hosts IRGC naval facilities, missile systems, and surveillance infrastructure. These positions enable Iran's anti-ship missile coverage, fast attack craft operations, and maritime coercion. Controlling or neutralizing these islands would fundamentally alter Iran's ability to contest the Strait. Option: Dismantle Iran's "toll booth" control of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC has created a system where ships must be approved, routed through Iranian-influenced lanes, and in some cases pay up to $2 million per tanker. The U.S. and Israel have the capability to dismantle this system. Target the leadership directing it. Destroy the coastal radar; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) nodes; and command centers enabling it. Eliminate the fast attack craft, drones, and missile batteries enforcing it. Option: Seize or interdict all Iranian oil exports at sea. Stop and divert tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Enforce a full maritime denial of regime revenue. The U.S. and partners have already seized sanctioned Iranian shipments and enforced maritime security operations in the Gulf. Be careful of analysts who rely on surface analogies. Iran is not Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq. Past wars involved nation-building, attempts to create democracy, prolonged fights against insurgencies, and enemies who enjoyed sanctuary outside the operating environment. Those are not the same conditions at play here. The geography, technology, intelligence, and regional dynamics are different. The options available today are far broader and more precise against the objectives. The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at West Point's Modern War Institute. (X) On Tuesday night, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared victory over Iran during a press conference, my family and I took shelter in our safe room. Despite the close partnership between Washington and Jerusalem, and the historic cooperation between the U.S. military and the Israel Defense Forces, America and Israel are living in entirely different realities. From an American perspective, the near destruction of Iran's military capabilities, damage to its nuclear infrastructure, and the elimination of senior leadership can be framed as a victory. For Israel, the standard is far stricter. Any outcome that allows Iran to rebuild its nuclear and ballistic programs, retain enough enriched uranium for multiple nuclear weapons, and continue supporting terrorist proxies is not a victory. It is a pause before Israel is forced to fight the same war again, possibly alone. During negotiations, Iran may accept principles in theory, then stall, dilute and avoid implementation in practice. We have seen this pattern before. The 20-point Gaza plan stalled when Hamas refused to disarm. The risk now is that Iran follows the same path, agreeing in principle while preserving its core capabilities. Israel cannot afford that outcome. Israel must press for clear, enforceable guarantees before any agreement takes shape. Not vague assurances, not frameworks, but concrete commitments that address the core threat. At the same time, Israel must act with urgency, both in Iran and in Lebanon, to shape the strategic environment before diplomacy locks in outcomes it cannot reverse. The writer was Israel's ambassador to the U.S., 2009-13. (Ynet News) As U.S. and Israeli military commanders met to map out war with Iran, they deliberated over how to divide responsibility for an array of targets. It was clear from the outset that one grim mission would belong to Israel: hunting and killing Iran's leaders. Israel has pursued this assignment with ruthless efficiency, killing Iran's supreme leader in the opening salvo of the war and more than 250 other "senior Iranian officials" since, according to the Israeli military. The campaign relies on an apparatus that Israel spent decades building but transformed over the past several years to achieve new levels of lethal proficiency. Senior Israeli military and intelligence officials cited a proliferation of sources and surveillance capabilities inside Iran - regime insiders recruited to spy for Israel as well as cyber-penetrations of thousands of targets including street cameras and payment platforms. These and other streams of data are being scoured by a new, classified artificial intelligence platform programmed to extract clues to leaders' lives and movements. Israel's targeted killing tactics - bombs planted months before being detonated, drones capable of slipping into apartment windows, and supersonic missiles fired from stealth fighter jets - have been honed by years of conflict in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Asked why the mission of targeting Iran's leaders was assigned to Israel, a senior Israeli security official cited its experience and expertise, saying: "There was a need to target them. And we could do it." (Washington Post) Antisemitism Last year in the UK there were more than 3,700 incidents of antisemitism, with a sharp increase in attacks on visibly Jewish people and public figures, including the attack on a Manchester synagogue in October. France, Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands have seen similar spikes in antisemitic attacks and incidents following the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist assault on Israel. Jewish people in the UK and in Europe are genuinely fearful. Some have already left the countries they were born and grew up in, because they know these countries are not dealing with the roots of modern antisemitism and the environment of tacit permission that stalks parts of Western politics. So we end up in the bizarre situation that a community, relatively small in the case of Britain, which on the whole works hard, does well, and gives proportionately more philanthropically than any other, is targeted by bigotry - and in any other case would provoke not just firm action but a concerted attempt to challenge the ideology behind it. Antisemitism is not new. It rolls on through the centuries with some in each generation seemingly finding new reasons, justifications, explanations, or excuses for it. But today it has new forms, on the right and on the left. The left-wing version is a pernicious and novel development in progressive politics: the alliance with Islamists. And the war in Gaza has allowed it full rein in pursuing it. Parts of the left cast the Jewish community as supporters of the government of Israel. And Jews become "fair game." The suffering of Gaza, the death and destruction, is undeniable. But you cannot engage in criticism legitimately if you do not also condemn the terrorism of Oct. 7. You cannot pretend that Israel does not face a substantial terrorist threat from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hizbullah, the Iranian regime, and other groups that do not recognize Israel's right to exist. You should not diminish the charge of genocide by a barb particularly aimed at Jewish memories of the Holocaust, which was a genocide. I don't know what the response of the people of Britain would be if we woke up one day and found 1,200 of our citizens were murdered, including young people at a music festival, with women raped and others taken hostage. But I suspect it would be total determination that those responsible were going to be removed as a threat, and nothing would deter us from doing so. I know some say that defending the State of Israel is not the way to defeat antisemitism. But there is more at stake than simply defending Israel. It's about defending reason. Defending facts. Standing up to the noise and intimidation to assert the truth. The writer is former Prime Minister of Great Britain (1997-2007). (Tony Blair Institute for Global Change-UK) The arson attack in London's Golders Green, targeting ambulances operated by a Jewish volunteer rescue organization, shatters a basic rule of civilized society. Ambulances save lives. They do not carry ideology. Anyone who burns them does not protest. They declare that nothing remains off limits. This attack fits a pattern that grows more violent, more organized, and more brazen. Evidence points to networks aligned with the Islamic Republic of Iran directing, enabling, and inspiring violence against Jewish targets across multiple countries. This is not random hatred. It is strategy. Iran uses proxies and deniability to project power beyond its borders. Antisemitism does not stay contained. It escalates. It tests how much a society will tolerate before it acts. Once violence replaces rhetoric, the damage does not stop with Jews. It spreads outward and weakens the norms that protect everyone else. This moment does not call for statements. It demands action. Governments must take responsibility for the security of Jewish institutions. In the U.S. alone, Jewish communities spend more than $750 million each year on guards, surveillance, hardened infrastructure, and emergency preparedness. That is indefensible. Protecting houses of worship, schools, and communal institutions sits at the core of state responsibility. Violence does not begin with violence. It begins with language that society excuses, minimizes, or disguises. Stop pretending that rhetoric and violence exist in separate worlds. When attackers target institutions of care, worship, and communal life because they are Jewish, the issue extends beyond antisemitism. It becomes a test of whether democratic societies still enforce their own rules. Societies that fail to defend these boundaries lose them. The writer is CEO of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. (Jerusalem Post) Observations: Confronting Jihad's Forever War - Dr. Dan Diker (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
The writer is President of the Jerusalem Center. |
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