[International Herald Tribune] Volker Perthes - Whether a peaceful resolution of the nuclear conflict with Iran is possible hinges on three factors: an international consensus that Iran should not acquire a nuclear weapon; the willingness of the U.S. and the West to communicate to Iran and others that the conflict is about proliferation, not about the character of the regime; and domestic politics in Iran. The incoming American president has stated that he is prepared to talk to Iran directly and, in principle, without preconditions. However, high-level bilateral talks between Washington and Tehran would not begin before the fall of 2009. And they should not, unless Iran responds to Obama's inauguration with a considerable confidence-building measure, such as the suspension of enrichment or improving the IAEA's access to Iranian nuclear installations. The prospect of re-opening diplomatic relations between the two countries would boost Ahmadinejad's domestic popularity tremendously before Iran's presidential elections next summer. But there is little reason to help him win re-election, if he does not show that he wants to do business. After the Iranian presidential elections, Washington and Tehran may be prepared to hold serious bilateral talks, though we should not have too many illusions. Most probably, the West will have to realize that Iran, with or without Ahmadinejad, will not be prepared to give up its nuclear "achievement" - the 4,000 or more centrifuges that will be installed by that time. The writer is executive chairman of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin.
2008-12-05 08:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive