(Guardian-UK) Amos Harel - If Hosni Mubarak's regime collapses, it could endanger the peace agreements Israel has with Jordan and Egypt. In the longer run, the new reality on its southern border may also require structural military changes and place an extra burden on the Israeli economy. While recognizing the basic American inclination to back a popular freedom struggle, Jerusalem has reservations about the American tendency to see events in Cairo as an Arabic version of the Boston tea party. Israel believes that, if Mubarak falls, the Muslim Brotherhood - the only organized force within the Egyptian opposition - will be first to exploit the confusion and seize power. Seared in Israeli memory is a fresh precedent: in January 2006 parliamentary elections were held in the Palestinian territories, under pressure from President George W. Bush. Today a radical Islamist regime is in control of Gaza, much more repressive than the Mubarak regime and very hostile to Israel. If Mubarak is overthrown it could damage the status of the international peacekeeping force in Sinai and lead to a refusal by Egypt to allow movement of Israeli military submarines and ships in the Suez Canal, employed in the last two years as a deterrent against Iran and to combat weapons-smuggling from the Red Sea to Gaza.
2011-02-10 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive