(Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies/Bar-Ilan University) Gil Feiler - Iran is the second-largest oil producer in OPEC, holding about 10% of the world's crude oil reserves. Iran is second only to Russia in natural gas reserves. The ability of China and India to manufacture cheap goods and services is dependent on affordable Iranian oil. Any severe disruption to Iran's economy would have significant economic repercussions on the Chinese and Indian economies. Thus, China and India are sure to protect Iran against any Western attempt to impose sanctions. On the other hand, Iran is neither an economic nor a military superpower. International sanctions would hamper Iranian technological progress, and its oil industry is not in good shape. In fact, Iran is a net importer of refined oil products, including gasoline. Oil wealth by itself cannot guarantee Iran's 70 million citizens a high standard of living without developing downstream industries. Iran's other allies certainly cannot compensate for decreased European investment.
2006-03-10 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive