(Center for Strategic & International Studies) Anthony H. Cordesman, and Nicholas S. Yarosh - The "Arab spring" is likely to involve a decade or more of political, economic, and social unrest. The causes of unrest involve structural problems in governance, demographics, and economics. None can be solved in a few months or years. Most Middle East and North African states have no real political parties or pluralistic structures, and only the monarchies have a history of political legitimacy. There is no clear basis for representative government, no experience with political compromise, and no pattern of effective governance to build upon. Ethnic and religious issues often cut deep and have been repressed for decades. Justice systems are weak and/or corrupt, religious extremism challenges necessary social and economic change, and the security forces are often an equal or more serious problem. The U.S. and the West may still think in terms of rapid, stable democratic change, but none of the proper conditions exist in many states. The reality is that far too many revolutions eat their young and the hopes of those who cause them. Sudden successes are unlikely and even the best regimes will take years to meet popular hopes and expectations.
2012-02-17 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive