(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall - With the sanctions on Iran tightening in recent months, its leadership has been trying to project business as usual. Iran is waging an extensive propaganda campaign at home, emphasizing that the sanctions have not harmed Iran's oil exports and indeed are strengthening its local production in many areas. Yet the sanctions constitute the greatest economic, political, and governmental challenge Supreme Leader Khamenei has faced since the end of the Iran-Iraq War. Ahmadinejad's government did not prepare in time for the intensity and scope of the sanctions. They probably assessed that, in light of the ongoing crisis of the Western economies, the likelihood of biting sanctions on the oil and banking sectors was low. In response to the intensifying sanctions and the ongoing foreign-currency crisis, domestic criticism of Ahmadinejad's government's poor performance has mounted. Critics in the Majlis (parliament), the media, and the religious establishment claim the Western-imposed sanctions have had only a minor effect on the economy and the problem mainly lies in the flawed performance of those entrusted to run the Iranian economy. Iran is now beginning to pay dearly for its heavy dependence on oil revenues. Although this dependence was no secret to the Iranian leadership, they wrongly assessed the seriousness of the West. Thus, Iran's leadership now faces a higher potential than in the past of renewed public unrest backed by the religious establishment. Indeed, most of Iran's senior clerics have withdrawn their support for Ahmadinejad and his supporters ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in June 2013. The Iranian regime has been encouraged by its successes so far in advancing its nuclear program (including the reported completion of the installation of centrifuges at the Fordo uranium enrichment site) and by the changes that are reshaping the Middle East. There is great doubt whether the challenges Iran faces will lead the current leadership to revise its nuclear policy and its preparedness for compromise with the West on the nuclear issue. Since the effects of the sanctions are evident, in the West there are those who will exploit this fact to defer military action against Iran in order to give the sanctions "just another chance" to work. Iran will continue to promote the different components of its nuclear program and is prepared to pay the price of sanctions, believing it will be able to contain any popular protests as it has done in the past and to rely on the West's eagerness to avoid any military action. IDF Lt.-Col. (ret.) Michael (Mickey) Segall is a senior analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and the Terrogence company.
2012-11-06 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive