[Ynet News] Eyal Zisser - In a speech this week in southern Beirut, Hizballah's secretary-general called on Shiites in Lebanon not to fear a new civil war in the country. "Only the weak side fears such a possibility, and we're not weak," he said. Nasrallah is a gambler by nature. In July, too, he gambled that Israel would not be responding to the abduction of IDF soldiers. However, at that time he lost the gamble, and Nasrallah and his supporters were forced to pay a heavy price. Now, he is gambling again that eventually his opponents will cave in. The problem is that none of the Lebanese poker players have anything to lose anymore. After all, any concession in the face of demands means handing over power in the country to Nasrallah, and this was not the aim of Prime Minister Siniora and his colleagues. The last war and Security Council Resolution 1701 created a fragile, unstable reality on Israel's northern border. Those comforted by the deployment of the Lebanese army and the international force may discover that once fire is exchanged in Beirut, these forces would be the first ones to leave the area. Nasrallah's willingness to challenge the Lebanese system's stability shows that he feels self-confidence and possibly believes that he regained the power and status lost during the war. This raises the concern that sooner or later he will seek to revert the situation along the border with Israel to the reality that prevailed on the eve of July 12, 2006. After all, those who threaten a civil war within Lebanon would not be deterred from renewing their activity against Israel along the border. The writer heads the Middle Eastern History Department at Tel Aviv University.
2006-11-16 01:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive