(War on the Rocks) Amos Yadlin and Ari Heistein - If the Iran deal (JCPOA) continues to limp along, Israel should devise a method for coping with the agreement's sunset clauses over the next decade that could leave Iran with a full-scale nuclear program, accompanied by a dangerously short breakout time, by 2030. Preparing for this will require a great deal of investment in diplomatic, intelligence collection, and force-building efforts that can be utilized for an international push, bolstered by an effective military option, to prevent Iran's nuclearization, perhaps by seeking to extend the sunset clauses. This would be no simple task even with the current level of support from the U.S. administration, and it will be considerably more complex should one of Trump's opponents win the presidency next year and choose to rejoin the JCPOA. Whether or not the nuclear deal survives, Israel could be faced with a severe Iranian nuclear crisis within the next decade. Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin served as Chief of Israel's Military Intelligence from 2006-2010. He is now the executive director of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. Ari Heistein is a policy and security consultant.
2019-06-06 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive