[Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University] Yiftah Shapir - On Nov. 12, the Iranian media reported the test launch of a new missile called the Sejil. According to Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, the missile is two-staged, with both stages powered by solid fuel and a range "close to 2,000 kilometers." Developing a solid fuel propelled two-stage missile indicates considerable technological know-how that differs greatly from the liquid fuel technology that has characterized Iranian missiles to date. Therefore, claims made by experts that this is in fact a Shahab-3 missile with a different logo have no foundations whatsoever. A solid fuel missile does not require a long, complicated process of fueling a short time before its launch, and is more mobile and therefore harder to locate prior to its launch. The existence of Iranian ballistic missiles is meant primarily to deter other countries from attacking Iran. Their existence does not constitute a reason to assume automatic Iranian use of these missiles to attack targets. Israel has long been within Iran's missile range. As long as there is no change in the warhead (i.e., the development of a nuclear warhead), there has been no change in the threat against Israel, though the fact that the missile is solid fuel propelled reduces its vulnerability. There is a large gap between test-firing one missile and equipping an army with enough missiles to represent a threat with operational implications. Thus, even if the recent test was successful beyond all expectations and the missile goes into serial production in the near future (which is not very likely), one may safely assume that several years will pass until Iran can deploy a significant number of missiles of this type. The writer is Senior Research Fellow and Director of the INSS Middle East Military Balance project.
2008-11-20 01:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive