(Institute for the Study of War) Brian Carter and Frederick W. Kagan - The Iranian missile-drone attack on Israel was very likely intended to cause significant damage. The attack was designed to succeed, not to fail. The strike package was modeled on those the Russians have used repeatedly against Ukraine to great effect. The attack caused more limited damage than intended likely because the Iranians underestimated the tremendous advantages Israel has in defending against such strikes. The 170 drones were launched well before the ballistic and cruise missiles, very likely in the expectation that they would arrive in Israel's air defense window at about the same time. The purpose is to have the slower cruise missiles and drones distract and overwhelm air defenses in order to allow the ballistic missiles, which are much harder to shoot down, to reach their targets. The Iranians likely hoped that a significantly higher percentage of the ballistic missiles would hit their targets. Israel also benefits from the 1,000 km. separating its borders from Iran. Israel and its allies used that distance to intercept all of the incoming drones and cruise missiles with ground-based air defense and combat aircraft before they even came within Israel's own missile-defense umbrella. The lessons that Iran will draw from this attack will allow it to build more successful strike packages in the future. Israel and its partners should not emerge from this successful defense with any sense of complacency.
2024-04-16 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive