(BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Prof. Eitan Shamir - Many commentators claim that Israel lacks a clear plan for "the day after" the end of the current war. But Israel is not playing a short-term game. Beyond its declared war goals, Israel is aiming to create a new security reality in the region by weakening Iran and its proxies. This broader goal stems from the understanding that to Israel, this war is existential, and the removal of significant threats from Israel's borders is non-negotiable. Post-Oct. 7, Israel now understands that it can no longer allow hostile terrorist armies to exist on its borders waiting for the order to invade Israeli territory. When a war is existential, the goal is first to remove the threat and only then to clarify arrangements for "the day after." This is not, after all, the American invasion of Iraq, a war that took place thousands of kilometers from U.S. borders. In Gaza, the fight against remnants of Hamas, isolated terrorist cells that continue to operate, will go on for many months and perhaps even years. The realistic goal is to hit Hamas hard enough that Gaza does not pose a greater threat than that posed by Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank. The IDF understands that in Lebanon it is not possible to destroy most of the enemy's forces. It is, however, possible to hit Hizbullah extremely hard. The goal is to bring Hizbullah to the point where it no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel and is unable to carry out a massive invasion of the Galilee. Israel's test will be whether or not it can prevent Iran from rehabilitating Hizbullah. Israel will have to expand the campaign between the wars that it has been conducting in Syria for 10 years. It will now need to include Lebanon for the purpose of disrupting, delaying, and preventing Hizbullah's buildup. Finally, there is potential for new regional arrangements, including normalization with more Arab countries, if Israel succeeds in significantly weakening the Iranian threat. If Israel can show potential allies major military achievements against a common enemy, it can suggest a political plan that will improve its position in the region - but not before then. For Israel there is no end game, only a long game. The writer is head of the BESA Center and professor in the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University.
2024-10-15 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive