(Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security) Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman - Israel's ultimate goal in Lebanon is to ensure that Iran can no longer use the country as a platform from which to attack it. For this to happen, much would need to change in the internal balance of Lebanese domestic politics. Israel's policy during the war was to concentrate on Hizbullah as the enemy, not on Lebanon as a state. Many in Israel saw this as a mistake and called for strikes on Lebanese national infrastructure to enhance Israeli deterrence. But the Israeli approach may nevertheless prove to have been the right choice as it signaled Israel's interest in isolating Hizbullah. Hizbullah's enemies in Lebanon include key elements of the Maronite community; many Sunni leaders, who cannot forgive Hizbullah for its brutal role repressing the Syrian Sunni majority on behalf of the Assad regime; the Druze, led by Walid Jumblatt, who can see where the wind is blowing and have begun to distance themselves from their cooperation with Hizbullah; and a significant number of Shi'ites, who realize that they are the ultimate victims of what Iran has dragged them into. We must take into account that the gains in power and influence made by the Shi'a in Lebanon in the last two generations cannot and should not be reversed, even if Hizbullah should no longer be viewed as their agency. The writer held senior posts in IDF Military Intelligence for over 20 years and was deputy director for foreign policy and international affairs at Israel's National Security Council.
2024-12-12 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive