| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Saydnaya prison, north of Damascus, was where thousands of regime opponents had been locked up, tortured and killed from the earliest days of the 2011 uprising. Rebels entered the control room where screens showed feeds from surveillance cameras. Footage showed them breaking down cell doors and telling bewildered prisoners they were free. From one cell, a blinking toddler emerged. He appeared to have been born in captivity. Old women and young girls streamed out, some of them weeping, others looking dazed. Some screamed in fear, suspecting that their moment had come to be led away for execution or torture. "Everyone to her home now," ordered one rebel commander. "Bashir al-Assad is gone," another explained. "You are free now, everyone go home." There seemed no end to the prisoners walking out. Some held up fingers to show how long they had been imprisoned, others shouted the years. From the male wing, a group of freed prisoners explained that this was the day they had been slated for execution. In 2021, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 100,000 people had been executed or killed in Assad's prison network in the first ten years of the uprising. Of those, 30,000 perished in Saydnaya. (The Times-UK) See also UN Report Exposes Systematic Torture in Syrian Detention Facilities A UN-mandated team investigating serious crimes in Syria released a new report on Friday, documenting systematic torture and abuse across over 100 government detention facilities. The report draws on over 300 witness interviews, medical forensic evidence, and the Syrian government's own documentation. It reveals widespread human rights violations including sexual violence and enforced disappearances. (UN News) See also Text: The Syrian Government Detention System as a Tool of Violent Repression (UN International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism) U.S. B-52 bombers and F-15 and A-10 attack aircraft struck over 75 ISIS targets in central Syria on Sunday to prevent the terrorist group from taking advantage of the situation following the fall of President Assad. (U.S. Central Command) Roads and highways in Syria were packed with bumper-to-bumper traffic on Monday as thousands of Syrians who had been displaced inside their country for years tried to get back home. Some 7.2 million Syrians were displaced from their homes inside the country, while more than six million fled and became refugees. (New York Times) See also Syrians in Turkey, Lebanon Begin to Return Home - Mucahit Ceylan Hundreds of Syrian refugees gathered at two border crossings in southern Turkey on Monday, waiting to return home. Assad's fall has sparked widespread joy among Turkey's 3 million Syrian refugees. Hundreds of displaced Syrians were also returning Monday from Lebanon, with dozens of cars lining up to enter. (AP) See also European Nations Freeze Syrian Asylum Applications (AFP) Hamas's military wing, the Qassam Brigades, kept meticulous records of its fighters, tracking the weapons they were issued and regularly evaluating everything from their fitness to their loyalty. Secret internal Hamas documents shared with the New York Times by the Israeli government say that at least 24 people employed by UNRWA in 24 different schools across Gaza were members of Hamas or Islamic Jihad. A majority were top administrators - principals or deputy principals - and the rest were school counselors and teachers, the documents say. Among the seized records are secret Hamas military plans that show that the Qassam Brigades regarded schools and other civilian facilities as "the best obstacles to protect the resistance." The documents also list two schools in particular that were to be used as redoubts where fighters could hide and stash weapons in a conflict. The seized records - coupled with interviews of current and former UNRWA employees, residents and former students in Gaza - offer the most detailed evidence yet of the extent of Hamas's presence inside UNRWA schools. In several cases, educators remained employed by UNRWA even after Israel provided written warnings that they were militants. Residents of Gaza said in interviews that the idea that Hamas had operatives in UNRWA schools was an open secret. (New York Times) The U.S. has opened an investigation into whether NATO ally Spain has been denying port entry to cargo vessels transporting U.S. weapons to Israel. The Federal Maritime Commission opened the probe after receiving information that Spain had refused to allow at least three cargo vessels into its ports. If the investigation determines that Spain has interfered with such commerce, the commission could levy millions of dollars in fines, up to $2.3 million per voyage. (AP) Responding to Amnesty International's accusation that Israel is committing "genocide" against Palestinians in its military campaign in Gaza, German Foreign Ministry spokesman Sebastian Fischer said: "The question of genocide presupposes a clear intention to eradicate an ethnic group. I still do not recognize any such clear intention and therefore I cannot share the conclusions of the report....It is still our opinion that Israel is acting in defense against Hamas which sparked this conflict with its terror attacks." (AFP) Speaking in London at a dinner for the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, former Israeli President Reuven Rivlin revealed his frosty relationship with Queen Elizabeth II. "The relationship between us and Queen Elizabeth was a little bit difficult, because she believed that every one of us was either a terrorist or a son of a terrorist. She refused to accept any Israeli official into (Buckingham) Palace, apart from international occasions." By comparison, he revealed King Charles III was always "so friendly." King Charles twice visited Israel unofficially for the funerals of Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Rabin, before undertaking an official visit in 2020. Queen Elizabeth II never visited Israel during her 70-year reign. (Jewish News-UK) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said Monday that Israel had struck chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in Syria on Sunday to prevent them from falling into the hands of extremists. Defense Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would "destroy heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria, including surface-to-air missiles, air defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rockets and coastal missiles." A senior Israeli official said airstrikes would persist in the coming days. (Times of Israel) See also Israel Strikes Syrian Air Bases, Strategic Military Targets as Preventive Self-Defense - Lior Ben Ari After the fall of the Assad regime, Israel continues to target Syrian military assets throughout Syria, so that they will not pose a threat in the future. Arab media reported widespread attacks throughout Monday, targeting MiG-29 fighter jet squadrons, airports, air defense batteries, weapons and ammunition depots, scientific research centers, and missile brigades. Two Syrian security sources told Reuters that dozens of helicopters and planes were destroyed. Israeli officials told the Wall Street Journal on Monday that the purpose of the airstrikes in Syria is to protect against rebel groups that could gain access to advanced and unconventional weapons left behind by Assad's army. (Ynet News) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the IDF on Sunday to seize control of the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, which has been demilitarized under the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. "This agreement has collapsed, Syrian soldiers abandoned their positions," Netanyahu said. "We will not allow any hostile forces to establish themselves at our border." (Ha'aretz) See also IDF Deploys across Syrian Border - Yoav Zitun IDF units have deployed at critical points beyond the Syrian border including the summit of Mount Hermon. These operations, executed without resistance following the retreat of Assad's forces, aim to secure key positions ahead of advancing Syrian rebel groups. The IDF has described its actions as a temporary defensive deployment in the buffer zone. Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force is unleashing waves of strikes across Syria, including precise hits on Damascus. Among the reported targets is the "Security Quarter" in the Syrian capital, home to Assad regime intelligence facilities and customs offices. Israel also struck Syria's main military research center, which Iran used for missile development. (Ynet News) A drone from Yemen struck a 16th-floor penthouse in the central Israeli city of Yavne on Monday, sparking a fire and causing damage to two apartments, though no injuries were reported. (Ynet News) Resistance of Hamas terrorists in Jabalia in northern Gaza is steadily crumbling as the IDF is steadily dismantling the last pockets of Hamas forces. Over the weekend, a surprise raid on a terrorist hideout within the refugee camp eliminated 60 Hamas terrorists within a few hours through coordinated airstrikes and direct ground fire. Meanwhile, IDF forces recently completed a focused operation targeting terrorist infrastructure and underground networks in Jabalia. "During the operation, dozens of booby-trapped shafts and a significant number of explosives were destroyed in the area. Forces uncovered and demolished an extensive underground tunnel network stretching hundreds of meters, which Hamas terrorists used to launch attacks against our troops," the IDF said. "During the operation, forces encountered terrorists emerging from the tunnels to fire anti-tank missiles. Using coordinated ground and air strikes, the forces successfully eliminated the attackers." (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Syria From an Israeli security perspective, the collapse of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime represents a net strategic gain. Iran invested tens of billions of dollars and over a decade of effort into smuggling advanced weaponry and deploying tens of thousands of Shi'ite militia operatives in Syria. Those efforts have now been wasted. After Israel's military achievements against Hamas and Hizbullah, Assad's collapse in Syria has delivered another major defeat to Iran's regional aspirations. The Assad regime was one of the central pillars of Iran's plan to achieve regional hegemony. Tehran set up weapons production centers on Syrian soil, which nourished not only Hizbullah but also tens of thousands of Shi'ite militiamen stationed in Syria. While Israel will have to closely monitor Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army - a nationalist rebel coalition backed by Turkey, when stacked against the capabilities of the Iranian-led Shi'ite axis, these Sunni rebels represent a far weaker force, with fewer advanced capabilities and a limited focus that remains largely confined to Syrian territory, at least for the near future. The writer, a military affairs correspondent, is a research associate at the Miryam Institute and the Alma Center. (JNS) Turkish President Erdogan, with an eye both on the destruction of Kurdish forces in northern Syria and his broader expansionary Islamist agenda, gave the green light to his terrorist proxies in Syria to move to bring down Assad. In a lightning offensive Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) burst out from Idlib, seizing the major cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs and now Damascus. Given the Assad regime's monstrosities, many in the West have been enthusiastic about its fall, with some even hailing HTS as the good guys. Not so fast. We can see many echoes of Afghanistan in what's been happening in Syria. Remember how in 2021 the Taliban tried to convince the world that they had changed. Their spokesman said they would not seek revenge on those who had collaborated with Coalition forces and the U.S.-backed government, and would even respect women's rights and press freedom. We know how that worked out. Well, HTS is trying the same trick now. We should not forget that HTS is a jihadist group with origins in al-Qaeda. For the time being, HTS has its sights set on control within Syria. But it is not credible that they will not turn their attention beyond the borders in time. Before welcoming the rise of HTS, we should bear in mind that the enemy of my enemy can still be my enemy. The writer, a former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, was chairman of the UK's national crisis management committee, COBRA. (Telegraph-UK) The force that overthrew the Syrian regime - Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - claimed it had distanced itself from jihadism. Nevertheless, the use of the label "Levant" (Sham) raises a question mark. Using that medieval term instead of the word Syria, which jihadists have always regarded as alien because it was put in use under the French mandate, HTS and its backers implicitly deny the existence of a Syrian nation-state. Those who deny the existence of the Syrian nation cannot masquerade as advocates of stability in the Middle East. The writer was executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. (Asharq Al-Awsat-UK) The collapse at long last of the Assad regime in Syria is no cause for mourning unless you are the leaders of Russia and Iran. Russian state media said Sunday that Bashar al-Assad had been granted asylum in Russia. It's a particular defeat for Iran, which loses its Alawite ally to what is likely to be a Sunni Arab government. Iran's arms supply route to Hizbullah in Lebanon will be disrupted. Iran and its proxies imagined they had Israel on the run. But Israel turned the tables, first by diminishing Hamas in Gaza, then by eliminating Hizbullah's leadership, and demonstrating it can strike even heavily defended targets in Iran. Tehran's mullahs couldn't protect Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and now Assad in Syria. All of this is the result of Israel's daring and fortitude in self-defense. The Oct. 7 Hamas massacre is turning out to be a miscalculation for the ages, leading to defeats for the forces of Mideast mayhem. (Wall Street Journal) The boundaries of Syria were set following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The lines on the map were drawn by Mark Sykes and Georges Picot in a secret agreement in 1916, known as the Sykes-Picot Agreement. But lines on maps did not match the population already present. The lines drawn on the map have little meaning for the northern Sunni, the eastern Shia, the Druze to the south or the Alawite on the Mediterranean coast. There simply is no great purpose in a nation called Syria within borders drawn by European diplomats at the fall of the Ottoman Empire. (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) Iran On the eve of Oct. 7, 2023, Iran's proxy system seemed at the height of its power. Iran had a formidable ballistic-missile array and nuclear ambitions. A year on, however, everything looks different. The Oct. 7 attack, in addition to being a massacre, was a strategically absurd decision by a tiny statelet to launch a conventional offensive against a vastly more powerful neighbor. Hizbullah's choice to bombard Israel in the following days constituted a similar misstep. Iran's decision in April 2024 to abandon proxy warfare and launch a direct attack on Israel compounded the error. In each case, Israel's response laid bare the profound inferiority of the Iranians and their allies in direct confrontation. The result: Hamas and Hizbullah are decimated, Gaza is a smoking ruin, Southern Lebanon is a pile of rubble, and Iran is exposed as helpless before Israeli air power. The region now sees Iran and its axis of resistance as a paper tiger. The rebels' assault in Syria and the stunning collapse of the Assad regime are the first fruits of this new look. More will doubtless come. The writer is director of research at the Middle East Forum and director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis. (Wall Street Journal) The rapid fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, coming hard on devastating losses suffered by Hizbullah, has dealt a serious blow to Iran's "axis of resistance." After devoting a great deal of blood and treasure to propping up the Assad regime, only to watch its investment fail in a matter of days, Tehran hasn't only lost a client; it has seen its ability to project power, key to its own security, upended. As officials in Tehran spent money on far-flung militias, they told Iranians that the network provided a layer of protection: It allowed them to fight their adversaries abroad, rather than at home. Assad's fall has prompted sharp criticism of Tehran's policy inside Iran. "No one has the right to spend the nation's dollars to maintain spiderwebs anymore," Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a former member of parliament, wrote on X. (Washington Post) Iran spent decades and billions of dollars building a network of militias and governments that allowed it to exercise political and military influence across the Middle East, and deter foreign attacks on its soil. In a matter of weeks, the pillars of that alliance came crashing down. After Israel devastated Hamas, Iran's main Palestinian ally, and killed most of the leadership of Hizbullah, Iran's most powerful ally, Assad's toppling destroys the remaining front line of Iran's "forward defense," said Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project. "The Islamic Republic thought that Hamas's 7 Oct. attack was a turning point in history. That's true, but in the entirely opposite direction to what it hoped for," he said. Many Syrians hold Tehran responsible, alongside Hizbullah, for aiding Assad's oppression. After entering Damascus, the rebels ransacked the Iranian mission. The loss of Syria will have economic ramifications for Iran. In 2023, Syria imported 40 million barrels of oil from Iran. Syria paid for the oil on credit lines, and its total debt to Iran is estimated at tens of billions of dollars. Syria had also been the source for amphetamine-like captagon, which Hizbullah smuggled in annual trade estimated at $6 billion. (Wall Street Journal) The end of Bashar al-Assad's tyranny in Syria was made possible not because President Biden had the foresight to unleash the Jewish state against America's enemies in the Middle East. It's because Israel defied Biden's efforts to restrain it. When Israel took the very steps that have weakened Iran and its proxies, it was greeted by threats and disapproval from Washington. Biden's approach has been to prevent regional escalation. That may sound sensible on the surface, but it has meant trying to limit Israel's war to a purely defensive one against Iran's proxies - one at a time - while preventing Israel from taking the fight to Iran, the patron of those proxies. It goes back to President Obama's policy of respecting Iran's regional ambitions. It turns out that another regional power - Israel - was able to extinguish much of Iran's vaunted "ring of fire," despite the warnings, arm-twisting, and weapon-shipment delays from the Biden administration. The Israelis did not have to "share" the region with a regime intent on dominating it. While the Washington foreign policy establishment had persuaded itself of the futility of fighting a regime dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state, Israel could not afford that illusion. It demonstrated the fragility of Iran's imperium and the delusions about that imperium. (Free Press) Israel and the West After the fall of Bashar Assad, French President Emmanuel Macron is campaigning fiercely to offer PA President Mahmoud Abbas an independent state. The French president loves grandiose ceremonies and dreams of one day being able to bring together all the world's great leaders at the Palace of Versailles to witness the signing of a new Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty. Listening to him, one gets the impression that France is still ruling in our region. The French president's megalomania seems to blind him to the reality on the ground. Does he really think that the Jewish state will give in to the creation of a new terrorist state after the terrible events of Oct. 7, 2023? Israelis reject diktat, unnecessary risks, and suicide. The West, led by Macron, is wrong to focus its concern only on the territorial conflict with the Palestinians. The real problem remains the presence of Shiite and Sunni Islamists in our region, God-crazed people who want to take over from the Arab-Muslim regimes and then destroy the Jewish state. They will not stop there, their next step will take place in Europe. How does Emmanuel Macron dare to imagine the creation of a Palestinian state? Who will lead this new state? Hamas, which already has a presence in Jenin and Hebron? Has Macron not yet understood the meaning of the pro-Palestinian slogans in street demonstrations, on campuses, and in Paris chanting: "From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free"? After the massacre of Oct. 7, no Israeli government will accept the two-state formula. The writer, a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who was Israel's first Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania, is a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. (Israel Hayom) Educated people are often blindsided by major events, misled by wishful thinking disguised as analysis. Israel has confounded expectations in its war against Hamas. The IDF has ground Hamas into the rubble of Gaza, killing most of its leaders. It has wreaked sufficient devastation on Hizbullah to produce a ceasefire agreement. Commentators warned solemnly of "escalation ladders" and a "wider regional war," predicting that Iran would not stand idly by as its proxies were degraded. Yet apart from a few missile strikes, that is precisely what has happened. Heeding caution in military matters is wise. But an aversion to conflict at all costs grants bad actors free rein. As Israel's enemies sue for peace - precisely because of Israel's resolve in pursuing a war many deemed unwinnable - it's clear that caution has its limits. Israel has demonstrated that the murder of its citizens has dire consequences - a fact it must constantly prove to secure its survival. (Spiked-UK) Palestinian Arabs In the Middle East, periods of calm aren't seen as stepping stones to lasting peace but as temporary pauses in an ongoing cycle. You can't negotiate away deeply held religious aspirations. Turkey's ambitions, for instance, are deeply rooted in Ottoman history. At the Iranian pavilion in a Shanghai exhibition, I saw a massive map of the ancient Persian Empire. This wasn't mere decoration - it was a statement of aspiration. For American strategists still seeking to impose stable order in the region, think of the Middle East less like a chess board and more like a weather system, where hurricanes form and strike with a force beyond human control. Yes, conflicts can be temporarily contained, but even the most promising peace arrangements remain vulnerable to sudden, unpredictable shifts. The tactical implications of recent events are equally sobering. The rebels' offensive, much like the Oct. 7 attacks, used motorcycles, jeeps, and pickup trucks to launch devastating surprise attacks. It's a sobering reminder that even a supposedly demilitarized Palestinian state could quickly mobilize such civilian resources for military purposes. The writer served in the IDF for 42 years, commanding troops in battles with Egypt and Syria. (Makor Rishon-Israel Hayom) When Hamas launched the Oct. 7, 2023, assault on Israeli communities near the border with Gaza, its leaders were hoping that many Arabs and Muslims would join the fight to eliminate Israel. The hope was that Hizbullah in Lebanon would launch a similar invasion of Israel, that Iran would unleash thousands of ballistic missiles against Israel, and that tens of thousands of Muslims would invade Israel from Jordan. The only parties that chose to join Hamas's war on Israel were Iran's other terror proxies: Hizbullah, the Houthis in Yemen, some Shiite armed groups in Iraq, and several Iran-backed armed groups, consisting mostly of Palestinian Islamic Jihad members in the West Bank. Hamas leaders view the involvement of Iran's other proxies in the Jihad against Israel as insufficient. "We truly feel let down by the [Islamic] nation in an unprecedented manner," said senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya. Many Palestinians and Arabs are openly talking about the "betrayal" of the Arabs and Muslims. The reason more Arabs didn't join in is that many Arabs and Muslims are aware that Iran's mullahs want to use them to export the Iranian "Islamic Revolution" to their countries and to expand Iran's control over the Middle East. It appears that a large number of Arabs and Muslims are tired of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations constantly entangling the Palestinians in pointless and lethal conflicts with Israel. The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. (Gatestone Institute) Observations: Khamenei Loses Everything - Eliot A. Cohen (Atlantic)
The writer is a professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University and former dean of its School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). |
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