| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, September 10, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Airstrikes in Syria killed at least 18 people and injured dozens of others, Syria's state news media reported on Monday, blaming Israel for the attacks. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the strikes hit an area containing a scientific research institute where work on "developing short- and medium-range precision missiles" is conducted. The U.S. government has described that institute as a center of weapons research and development, aided by Syria's ally Iran, with the work being done there including chemical, biological and potentially nuclear weapons as well as missiles used by Hizbullah. Israel has struck Masyaf several times in the past. (New York Times) See also Israeli Airstrikes in Syria Are Preparation for Major Campaign in Lebanon - Ron Ben-Yishai Israeli airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon on Sunday night are probably related to the IDF's preparations for a major campaign in Lebanon. Hizbullah stores a significant part of its long and medium-range precision missiles, as well as its sophisticated drones, in Syrian territory close to the Lebanese border. (Ynet News) See also IDF Acts to Weaken Hizbullah before Ground Attack in Lebanon - Avi Ashkenazi The IDF is waiting for the political echelon's green light to restore security for tens of thousands of Israelis who have been evacuated from northern Israel in the face of sustained Hizbullah rocket fire. The Air Force is intensifying efforts to weaken Hizbullah's combat capabilities through increased targeted killings and strikes on rocket launchers. According to IDF data, 53 Hizbullah operatives were eliminated in August, including at least 20 killed in one week. In July, 33 Hizbullah operatives were killed. In June, 35; in May, 45; and in April, 32. In the past week alone, the Air Force has conducted over 100 strikes and dozens of Hizbullah rocket launchers in Lebanon have been destroyed. (Jerusalem Post) A Paris court on May 4 detained and charged a couple involved in Iranian plots to kill Jews in Germany and France, the French news website Mediapart revealed Thursday. Authorities charged Abdelkrim S., 34, and his partner Sabrina B., 33, with conspiring with a criminal terrorist organization. France's General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI) reported, "Since 2015, the Iranian (secret) services have resumed a targeted killing policy," adding that "the threat has worsened again in the context of the Israel-Hamas war." Iran is accused of recruiting criminals, including drug lords, to conduct such operations. Abdelkrim S. was previously sentenced to 10 years behind bars over a killing in Marseille and released on probation in July 2023. He is accused of being the main France-based operative for an Iran-sponsored terrorist cell that planned acts of violence in France and Germany. (AFP) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
A targeted Israeli airstrike on a Hamas command and control center embedded in the Khan Yunis humanitarian zone killed three senior operatives, the IDF confirmed Tuesday. They included Samer Abu Daqqa, head of Hamas's aerial unit; Osama Tabesh, head of the group's surveillance and targeting division; and Ayman Mabhouh. All three were directly involved in the Oct. 7 attack and had been planning further operations against Israeli forces. Extensive measures were taken to minimize civilian casualties, including the use of precision munitions and real-time aerial surveillance. While Hamas claimed the strike resulted in many civilian deaths and injuries, the IDF said, "Hamas's media office in Gaza has been caught lying before, and their figures do not match our intelligence." (Ynet News) President Biden's senior advisers are reassessing whether it is worthwhile to introduce a new proposal for a hostage deal in the coming days, as the differences between Hamas and Israel seem to be widening. The murder of six hostages and Hamas's new demand for the release of 100 additional Palestinian prisoners have fueled pessimism within the White House. "It doesn't seem like we'll present anything in the immediate term," a senior U.S. official said. The Biden administration believes Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is uninterested in a deal, according to senior U.S. officials. Senior American officials say the focus has shifted toward finding ways for Egypt and Qatar to pressure Sinwar more effectively. (Jerusalem Post) The three Israeli civilian guards killed by a Jordanian attacker on Sunday at the Allenby Bridge border crossing were Yohanan Schuri, 61, Yuri Birenbaum, 65, and Adrian Marcelo Podmesser, 57. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Cabinet, "We are surrounded by a murderous ideology led by Iran's axis of evil. Some people ask: 'Will you forever live by the sword?' In the Middle East, without a sword, there is no forever." (Ha'aretz) Two Palestinian terrorists on Sunday tried to run over soldiers standing at a checkpoint near Negohot in Judea. The soldiers fired at the Palestinians, who were hit. There were no casualties among the soldiers. (Ynet News) The Jerusalem District Court has ruled that the Palestinian Authority must pay compensation of NIS 3 million to three Palestinians who helped prevent the murder of Israelis, Israeli media reported Monday. The three were imprisoned by the PA after they cooperated with Israel and were abused while in prison. Israel's High Court of Justice ruled in 2021 that Israeli courts can discuss the question of compensation for Palestinian collaborators who prevented terrorist attacks against Israel. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar doesn't want a hostage deal. He plans to cause Israel to bleed profusely, divide Israeli society, create civil strife, and trigger a regional Iran-driven war on Israel. In its psychological war against Israel, Hamas made sure to record each of the hostages on video to galvanize Israeli and international public opinion to attempt to force Israel to capitulate to Hamas's demands. Calls for "ceasefire" and "bring them home" don't reflect the deal on the table. Israel would pay an enormous price for very few live hostages. The Aug. 28 U.S.-mediated negotiations included the proposed release of only 12 to 20 live hostages, leaving the vast majority of live and dead hostages in Hamas dungeons and increasing the probability of death for the remaining victims. An Israeli pullout from the Philadelphi Corridor would leave this vital passage in the hands of Hamas, enabling the terror group to maintain power, rearm, and resupply. This would also reassert Iran's presence in Gaza and serve as an escape route for Hamas leadership as well as scores of hostages who can be moved into Egypt and ultimately to Iran. Many in the West are convinced that the war against Hamas is a political conflict that can be negotiated to a successful solution. However, this is not the case. Israel is facing a broader ideological, religious war for its existence, led by the Iranian regime and executed by its proxies. The writer is president of the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs. (Jerusalem Post) The families of the six Israeli hostage found murdered in a Rafah tunnel received a report from the IDF about their loved ones' ordeal. According to the findings of the National Center of Forensic Medicine (Abu Kabir), the hostages were murdered roughly 24 hours before the IDF reached the site. Their bodies bore gunshot wounds and clear signs of severe neglect. They hadn't bathed for an extended period, and one victim had marks indicating they had been bound. Israel's Channel 12 reported that the hostages were confined in an exceedingly narrow tunnel that was too low to stand up in. The tunnel lacked air vents, making breathing difficult. The captives had no access to toilets or showers, relying on water bottles for both drinking and rudimentary washing. The captives were starved, leading to drastic weight loss. Despite these dire conditions, the hostages managed to survive 330 days in captivity. All six hostages were found with gunshot wounds to the head and other parts of their bodies. (Ynet News) See also Slain Israeli Hostages Struggled with Their Killers in Final Moments Several of the six Israeli hostages who were executed by their Hamas captors in Gaza attempted to fight off their killers, the IDF told their families. Israel's Channel 12 reported that "Several of the six are assessed to have defended themselves and struggled with those who shot them." (Times of Israel) Gal Hirsch, Israel's chief negotiator for hostages and missing persons, told a conference in Washington, "Unfortunately, many have embraced the narrative pushed by Hamas - that we are the ones blocking the deal. This is false. We have never canceled any deal that was on the table. It simply hasn't happened." Hirsch emphasized that Hamas's key demand, to halt the ongoing conflict, is not a viable option until all hostages are returned and Gaza is demilitarized. "There is a direct correlation between the international pressure on Israel and Hamas' desire to negotiate. When Israel is under pressure from its allies and other nations, Hamas feels it has achieved much without negotiating and recognizes the hostages as its most valuable asset." (Jerusalem Post) See also Israel's Hostage Envoy: "Hamas Is Not Really Negotiating" - Itamar Eichner Gal Hirsch, Israel's envoy for hostages and missing citizens, said Sunday: "Hamas is not really negotiating. There is a facade of negotiations. We thought there was progress but unfortunately now there isn't. Hamas wants to exhaust us. From time to time, Sinwar sends instructions and then dozens of Hamas spokesmen say what they want and drive the families crazy. They are just trying to bide their time. Since December, Hamas is not really in the picture. In March they came for a few days to negotiations in Doha and then disappeared." (Ynet News) After six Israeli hostages were executed by Hamas, President Biden said on Aug. 31, "Make no mistake, Hamas leaders will pay for these crimes." Here are some of the ways the U.S. could hold Hamas accountable: Support Israel's campaign to kill or capture Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and other Hamas leaders, both inside and outside Gaza. Within the U.S. and overseas, lead a crackdown on Hamas networks. Send Israel additional munitions to help it wage an offensive against Iran's terrorist proxies. Bring immediate and intense pressure to bear on Qatar to cut off all political and financial lifelines it provides to Hamas. Pressure Egypt to permanently cut off Hamas supply routes above and below the Egypt-Gaza border. Pressure Turkey to cut off all political and financial lifelines provided to Hamas. Pressure Lebanon to cut off all political and financial lifelines provided to Hamas. Enforce U.S. oil sanctions on Iran, targeting all Chinese entities involved in illicit trade with Iran, Hamas's chief terror sponsor. The writer, who served on the U.S. National Security Council, is a senior advisor at the FDD. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Prime Minister Netanyahu's conduct of the war against Hamas has overwhelming public backing. The majority of Israelis insist that Hamas be defeated once and for all. After the Oct. 7 atrocities in Jewish communities, they demanded that Israel should never again be content with repeatedly inflicting "serious blows" on Hamas, only for it to resume its murder offensives within a few months. The idea that a ceasefire deal will bring the hostages home is sheer fantasy. Only a few of the hostages would be released in the first phase. Hamas would then use the ceasefire to regroup and rearm, spinning out the continuing negotiation farce to keep the rest of the hostages trapped and thus retain control of Gaza. The Biden administration forced Israel to proceed in Gaza far more slowly than the IDF judged necessary to defeat Hamas and thus save the hostages. Worse, for three months, the administration stopped Israel from entering Rafah - below which the six hostages were murdered this month. The writer is a columnist for The Times (UK). (JNS) The Middle East The removal of the threat posed by the Iranian regime has to become a strategic priority, as it poses an existential threat not only to Israel and the Gulf states but the wider world. The clock is ticking if we are to prevent a non-conventional world war that has the potential to wreak destruction on much of the civilized world. If the U.S. and NATO fail to take the necessary steps and the Iranian regime continues with its nuclear program, Israel will take whatever action is necessary to protect its own security. It will do so with the overt support of Arab allies and the covert support of other Arab countries that know a nuclear Iran will seek not only to destroy Israel but also take over the Arab world in order to impose its theological dogma. A better way forward would be for the West to give the Iranians a final ultimatum on ending its nuclear program and sponsorship of global terrorism, backed up by a timeline to the toughest of sanctions. The 80% of the Iranian people who despise the regime need to know the West will no longer go "soft" on the regime and that when the time comes they will have our support to build a new Iran. It is the Iranian regime that has the power to end both the war in Gaza and prevent a full-scale military conflict in Lebanon. They choose not to do so. It is perverse that the International Criminal Court is considering issuing arrest warrants for Israel's leaders. It is the leaders of Iran who should be facing such sanctions. The writer served as the UK minister for the Middle East, 2009-2010, and as an MP, 1997 to 2019. (Jerusalem Post) Today's political reality in Lebanon does not resemble at all the situation that prevailed in 1990 when the Taif agreement signed between the three major communities ended the civil war that began in 1975. The main transformation involves the mounting power of Iran-founded Hizbullah and its growing grip on Lebanese politics. Hizbullah has made no secret of its ultimate goal of including Lebanon as the 32nd province of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Christian camp's consistent criticism of Hizbullah revolves around the fear that Hizbullah's potential to drag Lebanon into a war with Israel could lead to a catastrophic outcome for Lebanon. As a result, Hizbullah decided that the time had come to challenge the Christian dominance of Lebanese politics. This would mean that the Christian camp would lose significant positions such as the presidency, the army commander, and the parity between Christians and Muslims in the Lebanese parliament. This means Lebanon would lose its identity as a multi-cultural republic and become another Arab state affiliated with Iran, where the process of iranization of Lebanon will be accelerated. Hizbullah could then "invite" Iran to send troops to Lebanon to be deployed in south Lebanon, facing Israel, establishing a physical border between Iran and Israel that does not exist today. The writer, a special analyst at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence. (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs) Iran Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its appendages such as the Baseej, the Quds Force, and at least four security and intelligence services account for less than 5% of the Iranian population. Yet they have the largest share of plum jobs in the public sector. Despite the investment of more than twice what is allocated to the regular army, the IRGC never became a military force in the classical sense. Its military experience consisted of fighting secessionist groups in the frontier provinces and crushing unarmed protesters. The IRGC has developed into a factory producing large numbers of one-star generals who retire at 60 but live to be 80 or 90. Thus, you need to find them jobs. The decade-long Syrian war provided an outlet, as hundreds of retirees "volunteered" to go there to supervise the killing of Syrians and return home with a medal and a bundle of cash. But, as the "Zionist foe" started killing them with airstrikes, the flow of "volunteers for martyrdom" dried up. According to French scholar Stephane Dudoignon, over 100 IRGC generals were killed by the Israelis. Last month, when for a brief moment it seemed that the "Supreme Guide" might be forced to risk direct war with the "Zionist foe," the question surfaced: Is the IRGC capable of fighting a real war? My guess is that Khamenei's answer was "no." This is why, having held consultations for several days, he decided to choose "tactical retreat." The writer was executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. (Asharq Al-Awsat) Antisemitism As a member of the Brown University board of trustees, I disagree with the upcoming divestment vote on Israel. I am concerned about what Brown's willingness to hold such a vote suggests about the university's attitude toward rising antisemitism on campus and a growing political movement that seeks the destruction of the State of Israel. I find it morally reprehensible that holding a divestment vote was even considered, much less that it will be held - especially in the wake of the deadliest assault on the Jewish people since the Holocaust on Oct. 7, 2023. Israel, like all nations, has a moral duty to defend its citizens from terrorist attacks, and that is exactly what it has been doing. It is revealing that only Israel is expected to restrain itself because of the civilian lives that will tragically be lost in war. The university leadership has for some reason chosen to reward, rather than punish, the activists for disrupting campus life, breaking school rules, and promoting violence and antisemitism at Brown. Leading pro-boycott groups have ties to terrorist organizations that seek the annihilation of the Jewish people. I can't accept the treatment of a hate movement as legitimate and deserving of a hearing. It's as if the Brown board has agreed to vote on whether Israel has a right to defend itself, whether Israel has a right to exist, and even whether Jews have a right to exist. (Wall Street Journal) Other Issues As birthrates in every other developed country have plummeted to well below replacement levels in recent decades, Israel is the only OECD country with a naturally growing population. Its birthrate - which, since 1980, has consistently been three births per woman - is roughly double the OECD average. The abundance of children is one of the most striking features of modern Israeli society. What makes Israel different? All expectant mothers in Israel have full medical coverage. Moreover, Israel provides every family about $600 upon the arrival of their first child. In contrast, the average delivery in America costs families about $2,000. After giving birth, Israeli mothers are entitled to fifteen weeks of paid leave, funded by the state. Finally, there are tax breaks per child and a monthly child allowance, based on the number of children. What makes Israeli fertility truly remarkable is the fact that elevated fertility rates are not limited to its devout religious minority. Nationalism goes a long way to explaining the exceptional robustness of "secular" Israel's family-oriented culture. Nationalism creates a shared sense of identity across time. To be Jewish is to be the inheritor of an intergenerational project - a national story that precedes each one of us by centuries and will outlive us by many more. And the pervasiveness of this self-understanding among Jewish Israelis is among the most important drivers of Israel's exceptional fertility. Because individual identities are deeply rooted in a sense of national belonging, Jewish Israelis feel remarkably connected to their collective past and invested in their shared future. Israelis do not speak of having children as merely a lifestyle choice or a question of personal preference. There is also an unmistakable sense that having children is about something bigger than each of them individually. The choice to have children is an affirmation of the national story they have collectively inherited and spent much of their lives celebrating. (Public Discourse) In 2008, at age 24, Hisham Abu Raya became the first non-Bedouin Muslim officer in the Israeli army. He was discharged from the army with the rank of major in 2018, and was promoted to lieutenant colonel (res.) in 2022. Military service is voluntarily for most Arab Israelis. "Up until 10 years ago, you could count the number of non-Bedouin Muslim recruits in the IDF on the fingers of one hand," he said. Following his discharge, he founded "Ma'an," a project to strengthen ties between the State of Israel and young Arab citizens. The project now runs in 20 schools in Muslim areas to improve knowledge of Israeli history and civics and promote recruitment into the IDF. The program also runs in Christian Arab schools. Abu Raya estimated that today there are "a few hundred" soldiers from the Arab community enlisted in the IDF, adding that the ranks are growing. "If you want to advance in Israeli society and feel equal, army service is your entry ticket. That's how it was for me. The army embraced me. All the Arabs I know who went to the army today own a house and have a steady job. They have gone ahead in life." "On Oct. 7, the penny dropped among Arab Israelis. They saw that Hamas opened fire on everyone, and did not distinguish between Jewish and Muslim citizens. And there are still Muslim hostages in the hands of Hamas. It was the same during the 2006 Second Lebanon War - nearly half of the civilian victims in Israel (18 out of 43) were Arabs. Rockets don't distinguish between Moshe and Ali." (Times of Israel) Observations: How Can Europe Play a More Positive Role in the Middle East? - Professor Efraim Inbar (Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security)
The writer, professor emeritus of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, is president of JISS. |
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