Thursday,
December 12, 2024

News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:

Israeli Air Strikes Destroy Syria's Strategic Weapons; IDF Denies Forces Have Gone Past Syria Buffer Zone - James Mackenzie
Israeli jets have conducted more than 350 strikes on strategic weapons stockpiles in Syria to prevent them being used by rebel groups, the IDF said Tuesday. Lt.-Col. Nadav Shoshani denied that Israeli forces had penetrated Syrian territory significantly beyond the buffer zone. "IDF forces are not advancing towards Damascus," he said. (Reuters)

Fall of Assad Reveals Major Divisions within Iran's Armed Forces - Roland Oliphant
Officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said commanders were blaming each other "in angry terms" for the collapse of Assad's regime and the loss of Iranian influence in the region. "The atmosphere is like something between almost punching each other, punching the walls, yelling at each other and kicking rubbish bins. They are blaming each other, and no one is taking responsibility," one official from Tehran told the Telegraph. "The focus for 10 years had been only on keeping [Assad] in power. And it was not because we were in love with him, it was because we wanted to maintain proximity to Israel and Hizbullah."
    A second IRGC official said that some are blaming Brig.-Gen. Esmail Qaani, the present commander of the Quds Force. "No one dares to tell him to his face, but...he is the one to hold accountable and fire. He has done nothing to prevent Iran's interests from crumbling. Allies fell one after another, and he was watching from Tehran."
    Asked about the military's view of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader whose Oct. 7 attack on Israel sparked the war, the first IRGC official said: "I can just tell you that he is no longer a celebrity here." "The resistance project almost no longer exists. You don't need to be an expert to see that we are in our weakest and most vulnerable position in decades and many acknowledge that here."
    Arash Azizi, an Iranian historian, said, "There is a big segment of the Iranian establishment which realizes the gig is up: revolutionary Islamism devoted to confronting America is not going to get them anywhere. That doesn't mean they want to be a liberal democracy, but they want to be more like Turkey or India, a big power in pursuit of their own interests."
    Some ordinary Iranian citizens are celebrating the fall of Assad. One Tehran resident said, "More than 90% of the people are happy and celebrating it. The mullahs should know that this is what will happen if they don't have the people's support. The repression of people leads to dictators' downfall."  (Telegraph-UK)

Iran's Khamenei Blames U.S. and Israel for Toppling Syria's Assad
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday that the toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was the result of a plan by the U.S. and Israel. "What happened in Syria was mainly planned in the command rooms of America and Israel. We have evidence of this," Khamenei said. (Reuters)

Syrian Rebels Had Help from Ukraine in Humiliating Russia - David Ignatius
The Syrian rebels who swept to power in Damascus received drones and other support from Ukrainian intelligence operatives who sought to undermine Russia and its Syrian allies. Ukrainian intelligence sent 20 experienced drone operators and 150 first-person-view drones to Idlib, Syria, to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the leading rebel group. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed in September that "Ukrainian intelligence emissaries" were in Idlib. (Washington Post)

World Central Kitchen Fires Dozens of Workers in Gaza after Israel Accuses Them of Terrorist Links - Nidal Al-Mughrabi
The U.S.-based charity World Central Kitchen fired dozens of Palestinian workers in Gaza after Israel said at least 62 staff were linked to militant groups. An Israeli security official said Israel had demanded an investigation into WCK staff after it identified employee Ahed Azmi Qdeih who took part in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Qdeih was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Nov. 30. (Reuters)

News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

Terrorist Opens Fire on Bus near Jerusalem, Kills Israeli Boy, Injures 3 - Elisha Ben Kimon
Yehoshua Aharon Tuvia Simcha, 12, was killed in a shooting attack late Wednesday on a civilian bus traveling from Beitar Illit to Jerusalem. A woman in her 40s sustained gunshot wounds. Two other passengers were injured from gunfire and shattered glass. The assailant, reportedly firing from a passing vehicle, struck the bus with 23 bullets. (Ynet News)
    See also Palestinian Shooter Surrenders to Israeli Security Forces (Jerusalem Post)

The Destruction of the Syrian Army's Core Capabilities - Yoav Limor
Israeli airstrikes in recent days have stripped the Syrian army of its entire strategic arsenal. Although continuous intelligence was gathered on Syrian military's assets and infrastructure, no one predicted they would become an immediate target for destruction. While Israel has conducted numerous strikes over the past decade targeting air defense systems threatening Israeli jets and weapons production facilities, it deliberately refrained from dismantling the backbone of the Syrian army to avoid appearing as though it was declaring war on Syria or risking entanglement with Russia, Assad's principal patron.
    Since the Syrian rebels subscribe to an extreme jihadist ideology, with deep-seated hostility toward Israel and a desire for its destruction, it was decided to obliterate as much of Syria's military infrastructure as possible that risked falling into rebel hands. Israel leveraged its extensive intelligence on the Syrian military into a massive operation designed to leave the rebels with little more than "pickup trucks and submachine guns," as one senior Israeli official said. (Israel Hayom)
    See also Group of Syrian Rebels Vow March on Jerusalem
Footage from a mosque in Damascus aired by Hebrew media Monday showed Syrian rebels vowing to march on Jerusalem. "This is the land of Islam, this is Damascus, the Muslim stronghold. From here to Jerusalem. We're coming for Jerusalem. Patience, people of Gaza, patience," vowed an Islamist rebel, surrounded by a group of gunmen who responded with cries of "Allahu akbar!"  (Times of Israel)

Syria Served as Iran's Primary Base for Distributing Armaments across the Middle East - Yishai Elmakies
The destruction of such a large percentage of an advanced military force like the Syrian army in under 72 hours is an event unparalleled globally for decades. Israel's Defense Ministry estimates that 70-80% of the Syrian army's strategic capabilities have been destroyed.
    For years, Syria served as Iran's primary base for stockpiling weapons, training countless jihadist forces, and distributing armaments across the Middle East with Assad's cooperation. Exploiting the power vacuum in Syria, the IDF has significantly undermined Iran's foothold in the region.
    Despite the rebels' attempts to project a "clean" image to the West, they are unequivocally jihadist in nature. Once they are done with Damascus, their sights will turn to Al-Aqsa. The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is nicknamed "al-Jolani," a reference to his connection to the Golan Heights. Someone bearing such a name will not relinquish the area without a fight. (Makor Rishon-Israel Hayom)

Israel Destroys Syrian Navy - Emanuel Fabian
On Monday night, the Israeli Navy carried out a large-scale operation to destroy the Syrian Navy. 15 Syrian navy vessels, many armed with sea-to-sea missiles, were destroyed by Israeli Navy missile boats at Minet el-Beida bay and Latakia port on the Syrian coast. The strikes were carried out to prevent the Syrian navy capabilities and weaponry from falling into the hands of hostile forces, following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Times of Israel)
    See also Photo: Syrian Navy Missile Boats Sunk at the Port of Latakia on Dec. 10, 2024 (Maxar-U.S. Naval Institute)

IDF Strengthening Defenses on Syrian Border - Yoav Zitun
The IDF is accelerating the addition of new combat engineering elements along the Syrian border in the Golan Heights to prevent armed terrorists infiltrating Israel. Lessons learned from Hamas's breach of defenses surrounding Gaza are being applied. Tactical combat engineering work includes new minefields, deploying explosive charges, and digging deep trenches.
    The IDF is prioritizing fortifications in areas close to Israeli communities and sectors with limited visibility. An IDF officer said Tuesday that civilian equipment had been leased and "dozens of bulldozers and excavators are working swiftly and efficiently." (Ynet News)

Houthis Causing Negligible Damage to Israeli Trade - Idan Eretz
The blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait by the Houthis in Yemen has not caused any great damage to Israel's international trade, according to a new Bank of Israel study. Shipping prices have risen, but these increases have moderated dramatically in the past six months. In addition, the impact on Israel is marginal due to Israel's intensive trade with Europe, which is not affected by the blockade. (Globes)

Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

With Assad Gone - What's Next? - Ehud Yaari
The ring of fire that Iran had planned to establish around Israel has been dismantled with the loss of the single most important link in the chain, Syria. Hizbullah is now locked in an isolated enclave. Hamas is transformed into a scattered armed underground. The multitude of Iranian-sponsored Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units proved to be ineffective in spite of their bombastic rhetoric. Iran's Revolutionary Guards opted to avoid getting into direct continuous exchanges of blows with Israel, after having a taste of Israel's attack capabilities during a year of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, military industries and air defense systems in Syria.
    Having defeated its enemies, Israel will be looked upon differently by friends and foes alike. For many years to come, its rivals will not dare to test its power. One of the most important commentators in Tehran, Suheil Karimi, warned on Iranian television that "without Assad, ultimately there will be no Hizbullah." Weakened and decapitated, Hizbullah is bound to lose much of its political clout inside Lebanon.
    Rebel leader al-Jolani did not plan to topple the regime at this time. He had obtained a green light from Turkey's President Erdogan to expand the territory he was controlling in the northwestern province of Idlib. However, when the rebels realized that battalion after battalion of the Syrian army defending Aleppo were taking off their uniforms and fleeing, a decision was taken to gallop to Damascus.
    The writer is chief Middle East commentator of Israel's Channel 12 television and an international fellow of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.  (Jerusalem Strategic Tribune)

The International Community Should Thank the Israelis for Demilitarizing Syria - Clifford D. May
The defeat of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, responsible for the slaughter of half a million of his countrymen and the displacement of millions more, deserves celebration. But of the many Syrian rebel groups now vying for power, the strongest is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, whose roots are traced to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
    Meanwhile, the Israelis are demilitarizing Syria. Israeli fighter jets have struck tanks, helicopters, planes and warships. They have destroyed the facilities where Assad stockpiled chemical weapons that could have fallen into the hands of terrorists. The international community should thank the Israelis.
    What would make the world a safer place is if the U.S., on its own or in cooperation with Israel, would make plans to derail Iran's nuclear weapons and missile programs. Though might may not make right, it is might that alters reality in ways that diplomats, peace processors and calls for "de-escalation" and "ceasefire" do not.
    The writer is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).  (Washington Times)

Beware of Iran's Dash to Nuclear Weapons - Dr. Dan Diker
Gholamreza Sadeghian, editor-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated newspaper Javan, published an article on October 26, 2024, in which he points to the growing sentiment within Iran to "go nuclear." Iran's Supreme Council of National Security has also called to re-evaluate the Supreme Leader's fatwa (religious ruling) against nuclear weapons "because circumstances have changed."
    In light of its recent setbacks with Hamas, Hizbullah and Syria, the IRGC and Iranian nuclear engineers are likely rushing efforts to develop deliverable nuclear weapons capability. Attaching a deliverable core device in the nosecones of Iran's existing substantial ballistic missile force remains complicated, but ultimately achievable.
    There are still enough true believers in the regime hierarchy who embrace the medieval theorem that an apocalypse will usher in the global "Golden Age" of Shiism. The West needs to internalize this risk and be prepared to act preemptively.
    The writer is President of the Jerusalem Center.  (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)

Will Tehran Be Next? Iran's Myth of Power Has Been Shattered - Prof. Edward Luttwak
Damascus has fallen - something that has as much to do with Iran as with Syria. Tehran had long kept the Assad dictatorship in power, with its Hizbullah militia in Lebanon, the largest non-state army on Earth. But starting in late September, Israel demolished Hassan Nasrallah's organization. Iran's response was to launch ballistic missiles against Israel, which its own Arrow missiles efficiently intercepted.
    When Israel's air force counterattacked on 26 October, destroying targets in more than 20 locations across Iran, not one of its aircraft was even challenged. Exposed as vulnerable in its own capital, the Ayatollah regime is weaker than ever. And now, perhaps, the revolutionary wind that engulfed the Assad dictatorship could blow all the way to Tehran, as Iranians throw off their fundamentalist masters.
    The myth of Iranian power was ironically propagated by the U.S. itself. Right at the start of his first term, in January 2009, Barack Obama was terrified that he would be maneuvered into fighting a war against Iran. Conscious of what had happened to George W. Bush, his predecessor, when he ordered the invasion of Iraq, Obama set a new rule, one that lasted all the way to October 2024: Iran may attack anyone, but none may attack Iran.
    On 27 September, after Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, alongside his entire high command, Iran's response was massive: over 190 ballistic missiles, each the size of a fuel tanker truck, which might have killed thousands were it not for Israel's unique Arrow interception system.
    Now Iran's population is discovering that it has spent decades in poverty to pay for the massive build-up of the Revolutionary Guards and all their militias. And for what? They have elaborate bases and showy headquarters, but their expensive ballistic missiles can only be used against defenseless Arabs, not Israel with its Arrow interceptors. And clearly Hizbullah cannot even defend themselves, let alone Iran's remaining allies in the region.
    The writer is a contractual strategic consultant for the U.S. government.  (UnHerd)

Israel's Precision Strikes Highlight Its Strategy: Defeat, Not Containment - Rami Simani
Israel's swift and decisive actions, reaching deep into Syria, signal a historic turning point. The IDF's offensive strategy adopted in recent months against Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran mirrors the American "shock and awe" doctrine, blending relentless bombardment, destabilization and eventual destruction. In the Middle East, enemies are not contained or understood - they are defeated.
    Responding to a grave existential threat, Israel now stands on the brink of a modern-day Hanukkah miracle. As Hanukkah approaches, the nation celebrates its success in dismantling the chokehold that sought to destroy it.
    Europe watches in awe. Many Gulf states - alongside India and the Central Asian nations encircling Iran - also recognize the transformative power of Israel's actions. These nations observe Israel's resilience with admiration, awaiting their opportunity to align with its growing influence. Even in Yemen and Iran, where others have hesitated, Israel acts decisively.
    For the nations once under direct Iranian threat, Israel's rise offers hope for stability and prosperity. On the global stage, this momentum will usher in diplomatic and economic opportunities far beyond imagination. Too bold? Consider where we were just a year ago. (Ynet News)

Iran's Grip in Lebanon Must Be Broken - Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Israel's ultimate goal in Lebanon is to ensure that Iran can no longer use the country as a platform from which to attack it. For this to happen, much would need to change in the internal balance of Lebanese domestic politics.
    Israel's policy during the war was to concentrate on Hizbullah as the enemy, not on Lebanon as a state. Many in Israel saw this as a mistake and called for strikes on Lebanese national infrastructure to enhance Israeli deterrence. But the Israeli approach may nevertheless prove to have been the right choice as it signaled Israel's interest in isolating Hizbullah.
    Hizbullah's enemies in Lebanon include key elements of the Maronite community; many Sunni leaders, who cannot forgive Hizbullah for its brutal role repressing the Syrian Sunni majority on behalf of the Assad regime; the Druze, led by Walid Jumblatt, who can see where the wind is blowing and have begun to distance themselves from their cooperation with Hizbullah; and a significant number of Shi'ites, who realize that they are the ultimate victims of what Iran has dragged them into.
    We must take into account that the gains in power and influence made by the Shi'a in Lebanon in the last two generations cannot and should not be reversed, even if Hizbullah should no longer be viewed as their agency.
    The writer held senior posts in IDF Military Intelligence for over 20 years and was deputy director for foreign policy and international affairs at Israel's National Security Council.  (Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security)

Meet Mahmoud Abbas's Temporary Successor - Rami Chris Robbins
Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, 89, recently announced that Rawhi Fattouh, 75, will become his temporary successor if Abbas becomes unable to serve. Fattouh, 75, joined Fatah's first military wing in 1968. By age 20, he was involved in terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians. In 1989, Fattouh was appointed to Fatah's Revolutionary Council. On May 22, 2023, he said, "Palestine, in its entirety, belongs to us and to no one else. We do not share it with anyone."
    He believes that Jesus was Palestinian and supports the PA's pay-for-slay program. After the Hamas Oct. 7 massacre of Israeli civilians, Fattouh praised the terrorist group's "brave resistance." If Fattouh can seize and hold power in the PA, the new boss will be just like the old one. (JNS)

Egypt's School Curriculum Removes Antisemitism, Focuses on Promoting Peace
Egypt's reformed school curriculum is now teaching a more positive representation of Israel and peaceful coexistence, according to a report by the Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se), published in December. Over 80% of Egyptian elementary school students are now learning from revised textbooks focused on promoting peace, while rejecting violence and extremism. There is growing positivity in the presentation of Israel, with anti-Israel statements removed from textbooks for younger students.
    Ninth grade social studies students are being required to memorize the Israel-Egypt peace treaty and outline the "advantages of peace for Egypt and the Arab states." However, while antisemitic references and Jew-hatred were removed from textbooks for younger students, textbooks for higher grades still feature hatred of Israel and Jews. (Jerusalem Post)

New Book: October 7, Antisemitism and the War on the West - Dr. Fiamma Nirenstein
Fiamma Nirenstein's pathbreaking book is a vital contribution to understanding the convergence between Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre and an unprecedented outbreak of genocidal antisemitism across the U.S. and Europe. In her previous books, Jewish Lives Matter and the more recent Barbarians at the Gates, Nirenstein makes the case that the lethal mixture of jihad and genocidal antisemitism threatens not only Israel but the entire free world. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)

Observations:

The dreams of Middle East hegemony by the ruling mullahs of Iran are now in ruins, their genocidal aim of wiping Israel off the map now mission impossible, their ability to supply their murderous proxies across the region with weapons now crippled. There is said to be a growing sense of panic in Tehran among the ruling elite. If Assad can be so easily toppled, what chance their survival?

In little more than a year, Israel decapitated the high commands of Hamas and Hizbullah, killing thousands of their most battle-hardened fighters. Iran built them up, at huge expense, to be omnipresent threats to Israel on its very borders, the advanced guard of its mission to engulf Israel with enemies and destroy it. These threats are no more.

When Iran's puppet regime in Damascus started to totter in the face of a renewed rebel onslaught last month, Iran's diplomats and military personnel scuttled for the exit. Revolutionary Guard bases had been established on Syrian soil. These bases and supply chains are now shattered.

Israel stands vindicated in its uncompromising stance post-October 7. Palestinians who thought Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran were the routes to a better future have, yet again, made the wrong call. Iran is now reeling because Israel ignored the foreign policy pressure of its Western allies and their media echo chambers to hold back.

Washington, London and Paris all urged Israel to show restraint against Hamas and not to open a second front against Hizbullah. The New York Times, the BBC and Le Monde piled on the pressure for Israel to back off by constantly highlighting the humanitarian cost of the conflict, usually with suspect Hamas statistics. But Israel took only cursory notice, pursued its own interests, and did us all a favor.

Tehran's foreign policy is in ruins, its reputation in the mud and its options limited. The people of Iran have never shared the regime's antisemitism, its obsession with Israel, its imperialist expansion, or its passion for medieval theocracy. They have watched billions squandered (as everyone can now see) on the likes of Hizbullah. The ayatollahs have never been more vulnerable. The smell of regime change is in the Tehran air.

The writer, former editor of the Sunday Times, has presented political programs on the BBC and Britain's Channel 4.

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