| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, August 13, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Iran vowed revenge after top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran on July 31, but nearly two weeks have passed and no large-scale response has materialized. Analysts say Iran is trying to formulate a response that doesn't lead to all-out war against a powerful adversary. Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of the Crisis Group think tank, says a substantive response would likely provoke a bigger Israeli response - and Tehran would not be able to control the cycle of escalation that could follow. "Israel has checkmated Iran in this situation because Iran is left with no good options," he said. (New York Times) See also Iran Weighs Retaliation Against Israel - Susannah George In public, Iranian officials are continuing to warn of a "tough" reprisal to "punish" Israel. But in private meetings with the leaders of its armed proxies, Iran has called for caution - seeking to balance any show of force with the desire to avoid an all-out war. An Israeli official said Monday that Israel's latest assessment was that Iran was planning a direct attack and that it could come imminently. (Washington Post) Israel put its military on high alert amid heightened concerns about a possible Iranian and Hizbullah response to the killing of militant leaders in Tehran and Beirut. Israel set the high-alert level after observing preparations by Iran and Hizbullah to carry out attacks. Israel doesn't know whether attacks are imminent and is proceeding cautiously. "We are in the days of vigilance and readiness," said Yoav Gallant, Israel's defense minister. "The threats from Tehran and Beirut may materialize and it is important to explain to everyone that readiness, preparedness, and vigilance are not synonyms for fear and panic." The U.S. has shared intelligence about shifting Iranian force postures, a U.S. official said. But U.S. officials said that identifying the moving of military assets doesn't provide enough information to determine the timing of a potential attack. The U.S., UK, Germany, France and Italy called on Iran to stand down from its threats of a military attack, according to a joint statement released by the White House. (Wall Street Journal) Tens of thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators are expected at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19 to 22. "There will be tens of thousands of people in the streets," said Hatem Abudayyeh, national chair for the U.S. Palestinian Community Network and a spokesman for the Coalition to March on the DNC. On July 21, when President Biden dropped out of the race, the coalition put out a statement saying, "When it comes to the genocide in Gaza there is no difference between Biden, Harris, or any of the likely candidates for the nomination." (Washington Post) At a U.S. Special Forces base in northeastern Syria, American commandos are scrambling to contain a resurgence of Islamic State. Islamic State is mustering forces in Syria's Badiya desert, training young recruits to become suicide bombers, directing attacks on allied troops and preparing to resurrect its dream of ruling an Islamist caliphate, according to officers from the U.S. and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Militant fighters have doubled their pace of attacks in Syria and Iraq this year. They have targeted security checkpoints, detonated car bombs and plotted to free thousands of jailed comrades. During the first six months of the year, Islamic State claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in Syria and Iraq. "This year has been the worst year since we defeated Islamic State," said Gen. Rohilat Afrin, co-commander of the SDF. (Wall Street Journal) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Yonatan Deutsch, 23, was killed and another was wounded in a drive-by shooting attack by Palestinian terrorists near the Mehola Junction in the Jordan Valley. Two cars came under fire in the attack. One was driven by Deutsch. In the second car, Anas Jaramana, 32, from the northern Arab town of Muqeible, was wounded. (Times of Israel) An Israeli man, 60, was seriously wounded by a Palestinian in the West Bank city of Kalkilya on Monday. IDF troops killed the terrorist, identified as Tariq Ziad Abed el Rahum Daud, who was released from prison in November as part of the deal with Hamas to release some of the hostages abducted on Oct. 7. (Ynet News) Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday that Iranian military preparations indicated Iran was preparing for a significant attack against Israel. (Jerusalem Post) See also Iran Tells Israel It Intends to Attack - Tovah Lazaroff "Iran has informed us that it intends to attack Israel," Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Monday. Iran's message was delivered to Israel by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, who told Katz he had received this information from acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri. Katz said, "The world should exact a price from Iran for any aggressive action it carries out." (Jerusalem Post) Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Sunday, "Our enemies in Iran and Hizbullah are threatening us in ways they haven't before, but those who try will face an unprecedented response, unlike anything they've experienced before." "The basic reality that must be understood is that the State of Israel is fighting for its existence in a hostile environment. There were years when this required explanation, but now everyone understands. We are in a war that has lasted for 10 months across seven different fronts." (Ynet News) See also Israel Vows to Strike Iran Even If Its Attack Causes No Casualties Israel has in recent days conveyed messages to the U.S. and several European countries that any direct attack by Iran will be answered by an Israeli strike on Iranian territory, Israel's Army Radio reported Tuesday. Israel has clarified that it is determined to attack Iran even if an Iranian attack doesn't cause any casualties in Israel. (Times of Israel) Hizbullah has evacuated its headquarters in the Beirut suburb of Dahieh as a precaution against a possible Israeli response to its threatened attack on Israel, Lebanese media reported Monday. (Times of Israel) The IDF on Monday named 12 more terrorists killed in its air strike on the Al-Taabin school complex in the Daraj-Tuffah area of northern Gaza on Saturday, increasing the total number of named terrorists to 31. The IDF added that it had probably killed Islamic Jihad's brigade commander for central Gaza and disputed Hamas's claims that the air strike had also killed over 90 civilians, saying it would make no sense for its three precise smaller bombs to have killed that many people. (Jerusalem Post) Sgt. Omer Ginzburg, 19, was killed in battle while fighting in Gaza, the IDF announced on Monday. His parents decided to donate his organs for transplant. His corneas will be used for those who have lost their sight. His heart valves will be used. His skin will be used to treat burns, and bone grafts will be used to repair orthopedic injuries, including limb reconstruction. His parents said, "He was loved by his friends and family and always thought of others before thinking of himself. He was the friend you knew would always be there for you when needed." His girlfriend, Mika Tal, told Walla that at the beginning of the war, when Ginzburg would be on leave, he would go to the Gaza border area to aid in the rehabilitation of the Israeli communities. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran The July 31 killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was both a major humiliation and a severe security and intelligence setback for the Iranian regime. Iran and Israel have been at war for more than four decades. On April 13, Iran launched a barrage of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles directly from its territory. Although the attack did not trigger a major Israeli response, the combination of Israeli, U.S., and allied defensive measures prevented a catastrophe. The best outcome for the U.S. would be if Iran decides that the risks of attacking Israel are unacceptably high. By merely repeating the April 13 attack, Tehran would risk facing a prepared enemy while losing any remnant of surprise. Moreover, by most estimates, half of the ballistic missiles Iran did use failed on the way to their targets. With Iran's April 13 attack, Tehran has effectively created a precedent for launching direct missile attacks against Israel without facing deep consequences. Tehran needs to be unequivocally and credibly warned that any direct attacks against U.S. interests or allies will have serious consequences for the regime. While deploying defensive capabilities is undoubtedly important and contributes to deterring Iran, a credible offensive threat is crucial. The writer is a senior fellow with The Washington Institute, specializing in Iran and the Persian Gulf region. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Tehran may not launch hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel as it did in April because it fears a harsh Israeli response. Instead, it favors vengeance by means of its proxies, while extracting as much as it can from the Americans and Europeans in exchange for not going to war against Israel. According to reports, discussions in Iran's security leadership raised additional possibilities. These include striking Israeli and Jewish interests around the world; delegating responsibility for a response to the resistance axis, particularly Hizbullah and the Houthis; and leveraging the threat of a direct Iranian attack on Israel in negotiations with the U.S. with the aim of extracting Iranian nuclear achievements, securing the lifting of economic sanctions, and obtaining a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. A. Savyon is director of the Iran Media Studies project and N. Katirachi is a research fellow at MEMRI. (MEMRI) Israel's jets can certainly reach Iran. In July, Israel's jet fighters struck the port of Hodeida, Yemen, 2,000 km. away. Iran is only 1,500 km. away. Yet most of Iran's known ballistic missile sites are under the Elburz and Zagros mountains, where Iran has spent the last 30 years building fortified "missile cities." Many of Iran's sites are over 100 meters underground. The U.S.'s largest bunker buster bomb, the GBU-57, can only penetrate up to 60 meters of mountain. While Israel can try and destroy all of Iran's dozens of "missile cities," its success is uncertain. Iran could likely still retaliate with its vast ballistic missile arsenal. The writer is an Israeli F-16 fighter pilot. (X) Simply declaring that you want a ceasefire deal in Gaza, or a nuclear agreement with Iran, or "de-escalation" in the Middle East, or a Saudi-Israel deal to counter the Iranian threat, does not conjure it into reality. The U.S. administration seems to have forgotten that when you berate an ally in public, your foes listen carefully and adjust their tactics. When you telegraph your goals and your limits for pursuing them ("no American boots on the ground"), your enemies are taking notes. When you signal your desire to withdraw from the region, bad actors prepare for the vacuum. On Sunday, President Biden was asked for his message to Tehran as the region awaited an Iranian reprisal for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. "Don't," he replied. Had he forgotten that he had told the Iranians the same thing back in April? At that time, the president's "don't" precipitated a rain of hundreds of missiles and drones on the Jewish state. On that occasion, the U.S. masterminded an international coalition that impressively defended Israeli skies. The very next day, however, the White House demanded that Israel "take the win" and refrain from retaliating. The Ayatollah was left in no doubt about the extent of the American superpower's appetite for exacting a price for aggression. The writer is editor of the Jewish Chronicle-UK. (Telegraph-UK) The Iranian regime is not only the world's leading funder of terror, it is driven by a determination not just to defeat Israel but to extinguish it - to wipe it, and its Jews, from the face of the earth. Israel does not just have the right to resist this, it has the duty. And in standing up to Iran, it is doing the job which too many in the West fail to understand is essential for our own good, too - even if many of Israel's Arab neighbors do grasp that, and have thus become de facto allies. (Jewish Chronicle-UK) U.S.-Israel Relations The Biden administration has assembled an interagency team of targeteers tasked with finding Israeli individuals and groups to sanction. In February, Biden issued an executive order claiming that violence by Israelis in the West Bank was threatening the stability of the entire Middle East. The order laid out the justification for the interagency team of targeteers and provided it with the necessary legal authorities to generate sanctions packages. The International Economics Directorate at the National Security Council (NSC) leads the effort. Ilan Goldenberg, who until April worked for Vice President Kamala Harris and has now moved to the Strategic Planning Directorate in the NSC, also plays a very enthusiastic role. In the State Department, the Office of Economic Sanctions Policy has the lead. It works closely with the Office of Foreign Assets Control at Treasury to prepare evidentiary packages. The team convenes frequently to meet the goal, set by the president and his top advisers, of rolling out packages of sanctions with regularity. Six tranches have been rolled out so far, averaging about one per month. The next tranche is already prepared. Biden did not create this sanctions machine in response to any development on the ground in the Middle East other than the surprise attack by Hamas on Oct. 7. The writer is Director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East and a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute. (Tablet) Hamas Hamas has chosen arch-terrorist Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, atrocities against thousands of Israelis, as chairman of its "political bureau." By electing Sinwar as its "political" leader, Hamas itself is stating that it does not distinguish between politicians and terrorists. It also demonstrates that when it comes to Islamist terrorist organizations, there is no difference between political and military leaders. Did anyone ever consider referring to Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the heads of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS), as the "political leaders" of their organizations? Hamas's "political bureau" includes several figures such as Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Mashaal, Musa Abu Marzouk, Ghazi Hamad, and Taher a-Nunu who have long been advocating the armed struggle against Israel and glorifying acts of terrorism against Israelis. On the day of the Hamas-led attack on Israeli communities, these leaders held a special prayer in the office of Ismail Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, to thank God for the crimes perpetrated by their terrorists and thousands of "ordinary Palestinians," which resulted in the murders of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 240 others to Gaza. (Gatestone Institute) UNRWA in Gaza The United Nations, a once-noble institution, has gradually turned into a political cesspool largely controlled by totalitarian states and rogue nations. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) announced on Aug. 5 that 9 employees who "may have been involved" in Hamas's Oct. 7 attack against Israel will be fired. This means the agency seemingly disregarded or ignored "detailed information" provided by Israel in July that identified 108 UNRWA employees who were linked to either Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In February, the Israel Defense Forces uncovered a "subterranean data center" underneath UNRWA's headquarters in Gaza City. UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini wrote that the agency "did not know what is under its headquarters in Gaza." The Israeli defense bureau for Palestinian civil affairs, COGAT, responded, "Oh, you knew....You chose to ignore the facts so you can later try and deny them." IDF Col. Benny Aharon said, "There is no doubt that UNRWA staff knew that (Hamas) was digging a massive tunnel beneath them. There's a perimeter wall, a gate, cameras, at the gate they log who comes in and out. Whoever worked at UNRWA knew very well who was coming in." (National Post-Canada) The UN agency UNRWA maintains the Palestinians as a people in waiting until they finally realize their vision of "return." Palestinians make it clear that they are owed UNRWA's social services such as education and healthcare until their "return" is realized. A sign as you enter an area under Palestinian Authority control near Bethlehem reads: "UNRWA Services are our Right until Return." Since its earliest days, UNRWA has been hijacked to become a purely Palestinian organization devoted to "return," nurturing violent groups determined to erase Israel. Almost all the terrorists who murdered Israeli athletes in the 1972 Munich Olympics were graduates of UNRWA schools. UNRWA provides the ideological infrastructure of the forever war against Israel's existence. UNRWA's connection with violence against Jews is its defining feature. As long as UNRWA fuels the destructive vision of "return," Western taxpayers' funds will be used only to prepare for war. By providing taxpayer cash to fund UNRWA, the UK is telling Palestinians that they need never build a constructive future for themselves. It is a message that puts peace ever further out of reach. The writer, a former IDF intelligence officer and Knesset member, is the co-author of The War of Return: How Western Indulgence of the Palestinian Dream Has Obstructed the Path to Peace (2020). (Telegraph-UK) Other Issues Israel has drawn a crucial lesson from the Gaza war, the need to indigenously produce and develop critical weaponry for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Historically, Israel has sourced some of these armaments from foreign countries, primarily the U.S. It has now decided to develop and manufacture heavy bombs for the Israeli Air Force domestically, including one-ton bombs akin to those whose delivery has been stalled for months by the White House. The production of these new bombs is projected to take two to three years. The Defense Ministry is also broadening the domestic production of tank ammunition and 155mm shells. Defense Ministry Director General Maj.-Gen. (res.) Eyal Zamir said, "We are investing and will continue to invest tens of billions in building infrastructure and capabilities, expanding production lines, establishing new lines, and purchasing inventories to solidify production independence." Plans are also in place to increase procurement of armored fighting vehicles, including Merkava tanks and APCs, driven by the need to establish an additional new division. (Israel Hayom) Canada's tax authority on Sunday revoked the charitable status of the Jewish National Fund, founded in 1901 to reestablish a homeland in Israel for Jewish people everywhere. JNF has filed suit against the Canada Revenue Agency to overturn the decision. (JTA) See also Ottawa Turns a Blind Eye to Questionable Pro-Palestinian Charities - Warren Kinsella Ottawa wants to take away the charity status of the 100-year-old Jewish National Fund of Canada, but isn't doing likewise with a host of pro-Palestinian charities with questionable links to Palestinian extremist or terror groups. The Canadian Palestinian Foundation, Hands For Charity, International Development and Relief Foundation (IDRF), and Medical Aid for Palestine all have links with entities long associated with terror. (Toronto Sun-Canada) Observations: On Psychological Warfare, Negotiations, and What Lies Between - Aviram Balleishe (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
The writer, Senior Director for Security, Diplomacy, and Communications at the Jerusalem Center, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years. |
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