| DAILY ALERT |
Thursday, August 15, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
The U.S. has approved $20 billion in arms sales to Israel, the State Department announced Tuesday. Congress was notified of the impending sale, which includes more than 50 F-15 fighter jets for over $18 billion, advanced air-to-air missiles, 120 mm tank ammunition, high explosive mortars, and tactical vehicles. The weapons are in contracts that will take years to fulfill and delivery of the earliest systems aren't expected until 2026. (AP-Washington Post) According to three independent sources in Iran, the Islamic Republic is advancing its secret nuclear weapons program by resuming tests to produce nuclear bomb detonators. Iran has intensified its efforts to complete the nuclear weapons production cycle, including high-level uranium enrichment, the production of nuclear detonation devices, and the development of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. On Jan. 20, Iran launched a satellite into orbit using long-range ballistic missile technology. Sources indicate that Tehran's efforts to launch IRGC satellites are part of its plan to develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. (Iran International) U.S. Border Patrol agents caught Omar Shehada, 35, a Palestinian migrant whose name appears on a terror watchlist, at the border in Santa Teresa, New Mexico, on Monday. (New York Post) On August 19-22, the Democratic Party will host its convention in Chicago. "March on the DNC" - a loose network of nearly 100 NGOs - intends to protest in Chicago, demanding that Democrats adopt anti-Israel policies. Their central demand is "End U.S. Aid to Israel." On July 22, the group announced: "On August 19th we will march on the DNC for Gaza regardless of who gets nominated for the presidency [and the] Democratic Party leadership switching out their presidential nominee." On April 25, the group tweeted: "The Democratic Party is part of the system that upholds the Zionist occupation of Palestine and drives the imperialist system that oppresses all the people of the world." March on the DNC coalition members include Samidoun, a subsidiary of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization, and Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), whose chapters were suspended in November 2023 at Brandeis, Columbia, and George Washington University. (NGO Monitor) Pro-Palestinian protesters shut down the 405 Freeway in West Los Angeles on Tuesday morning during rush hour. Nine people were arrested on suspicion of unlawful assembly and failure to disperse, the California Highway Patrol said. "Accessing state freeways or roads to protest is unlawful and extremely dangerous because it puts protestors, motorists, and first responders at great risk of injury or death," the CHP said. "The CHP will not tolerate the actions of a small group that unlawfully prevent commuters from making it to their jobs, medical appointments, personal engagements, and many other daily activities." (Los Angeles Times) U.S. District Judge Mark C. Scarsi on Tuesday admonished UCLA for its handling of pro-Palestinian encampments and ordered the university to ensure equal access to Jewish students, three of whom alleged in a lawsuit that the university helped to enforce a "Jew Exclusion Zone" on campus and hired security guards who allowed protesters to cross into the encampment, but not Jewish students. "In the year 2024...Jewish students were excluded from portions of the UCLA campus because they refused to denounce their faith. This fact is so unimaginable and so abhorrent to our constitutional guarantee of religious freedom," Scarsi wrote. "UCLA claims that it has no responsibility to protect the religious freedom of its Jewish students because the exclusion was engineered by third-party protesters. But under constitutional principles, UCLA may not allow services to some students when UCLA knows that other students are excluded on religious grounds, regardless of who engineered the exclusion." The judge's order gives UCLA until Thursday to instruct UCLA police, security and student affairs that "they are not to aid or participate in any obstruction of access for Jewish students to ordinarily available programs, activities, and campus areas." (Los Angeles Times) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
"Prime Minister Netanyahu firmly stands by the principle that the IDF will physically remain in the Philadelphi Corridor" on the Gaza-Egypt border, an Israeli official said Wednesday. Netanyahu has insisted that the only way to prevent weapons smuggling that would allow Hamas to rearm is for the IDF to physically be present at the Philadelphi Corridor. (Jerusalem Post) Hamas launched rockets from a site near the humanitarian aid route in Khan Yunis toward central Israel on Tuesday, the IDF announced on Wednesday. Shortly afterward, the Israel Air Force struck terrorist targets in the area from which the rockets were launched. IDF International Spokesperson Lt.-Col. Nadav Shoshani shared a video on X showing Hamas terrorists in civilian clothes launching rockets from within tents near the humanitarian zone. (Jerusalem Post) Two Palestinian terrorists were found in critical condition after a bomb exploded while they drove through downtown Hebron, Israeli media reported Tuesday. (Jerusalem Post) Iraq finds itself at the center of the brewing conflict between Iran and Israel. Asharq Al-Awsat reports that Iraqi airspace is a key corridor for Iranian missiles en route to Israel. In April, some of Iran's 300 missiles and drones landed inside Iraq, including a drone that fell in the holy Shiite city of Najaf. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq have also targeted Israel multiple times, and have resumed assaults on U.S. bases in Iraq. (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War Recently, CNN published an in-depth article on the war in Gaza, claiming that while the IDF dealt a severe blow to Hamas, its military strength remains intact and it is renewing itself. This claim reflects a fundamental misunderstanding. Israel has had a declared strategic goal since the beginning of the war: To eliminate Hamas's military and governing power in Gaza. From conversations with some of the commanders leading the IDF in Gaza, it is clear that they believe they are advancing toward its full implementation. Elimination of military power requires eliminating Hamas fighters, its infrastructure including command and control centers, and its intelligence apparatus; destroying all weapon production facilities and isolating Gaza from Egypt to prevent the smuggling of weapons in the future and to deny Hamas the ability to rearm; and blowing up the tunnels to deny Hamas a hiding place. All these tasks are being carried out in practice, with Hamas unable to stop them. Many Hamas terrorists remain in the field, occasionally harming IDF soldiers and even firing a few rockets at Israel, and they still hold hostages. But no one has asked what Hamas's response from Gaza will be to the elimination of Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh. The reason is that Hamas's military capability has become far less relevant to Israel; every day that passes it loses more of its capabilities. At the end of the process, Gaza should become like Area A in the West Bank, meaning the IDF will enter and operate there whenever there is intelligence on any terrorist organization. This will mark the end of the war in Gaza. Once it concludes, every leader in the region will know that crossing a red line, as Hamas did, will lead to their destruction. The writer was national security adviser to the Israeli prime minister and chairman of Israel's National Security Council. (Jerusalem Post) See also Gen. Amidror: "If Israel Evacuates Its Forces Now, Within a Year, Hamas Will Be Strong Again" - Helene Cooper While American officials say Israel has achieved all that it can militarily in Gaza, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror rejected the notion that Israel had nothing more to gain in Gaza through force. "Israel's achievements in Gaza are impressive, but they're far from what should be achieved," he said. "If Israel evacuates its forces now, within a year, Hamas will be strong again." He emphasized that stopping the war now would be a "disaster" for Israel. Another two to three months of high-intensity fighting in central and southern Gaza are needed. After that phase, Israel could transition to conducting intelligence-based raids and strikes for around a year to take out remaining Hamas fighters and weapons infrastructure before allowing another party to take over the administration of Gaza, he said. (New York Times) Undercover IDF soldiers disguised as beggars and vegetable sellers were key to Israel's daring plot to target Hamas commander Mohhammed Deif. The missile attack which killed him last month came after a secret operation within Gaza by an undercover IDF team that pinpointed his location. One Israeli agent posed as a market stallholder, selling vegetables outside the building Deif was believed to visit regularly. The Israelis had been aware for months that Deif had become a regular visitor at the al-Mawasi tent complex on the Gazan coast. Prior to his visits, Deif would enter an apartment building near the complex where he would meet fellow Hamas operatives to receive updates. Then the IDF received reliable information from local collaborators and Israeli undercover units about the timing of Deif's possible next visit. The Duvdevan undercover team, whose activities were featured in the TV series "Fauda," arrived and began trawling through the displaced populace. Some posed as UNRWA workers coming to deliver aid, some as Muslim religious figures who had come to lift the spirits of the evacuees. This enabled them to develop physical and verbal contact with the displaced Gazans so as to collect as much intelligence as possible. On July 13, news spread among the Gazans that their hero Deif was coming to visit and the undercover team passed on this information. Two fighter jets flew on alert for seven hours, waiting for Deif to enter the building. Deif was finally seen entering the building, the signal was given, and the IDF ground forces quietly and calmly made their way out of the area. The first plane hit the building and completely destroyed it. The second plane then laid a belt of fire with tiny bombs around the building to discourage Hamas operatives from attempting to rescue Deif from the flames. The final stage involved firing a bunker-penetrating missile that could reach an underground floor beneath the building where Deif would try to flee. According to intelligence acquired after the incident, he did just that. (Jewish Chronicle-UK) Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar views the conflict with Israel as a religious one, a conflict between Muslims and Jews where Palestine is sacred Islamic land not even an inch of which can be compromised. There is no recognition of Israel's right to exist; jihad is the path to its destruction and is the duty of every Muslim. A "ceasefire" in Western terms is equivalent to a hudna (truce) in Hamas's terms. A hudna is a temporary break from war and does not indicate a desire to end it and achieve peace. A hudna will occur only when Hamas concludes that the IDF is close to defeating it. Jihadists can break the hudna whenever they feel that the enemy is weak enough and the situation is ripe for a surprise attack. The writer, Senior Director for Security, Diplomacy, and Communications at the Jerusalem Center, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Israel and the U.S. have disagreed about who should run security in Gaza after hostilities calm down. President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken want a multinational force without a substantial Israeli military presence. Prime Minister Netanyahu insists that, whoever is tasked with street-level law and order, the Israel Defense Forces will remain the predominant power inside Gaza. Netanyahu is applying a lesson Israelis have learned since the Oct. 7 massacre: only the IDF can guarantee the security of Israeli civilians, precluding the need for operations like Israel's current campaign against Hamas. The IDF's absence from Gaza permitted Hamas to recruit, build an elaborate command structure and a huge tunnel network, and plan operations like the Oct. 7 massacre. Hamas received a majority in the 2006 parliamentary elections, and most Gazans still support the Oct. 7th massacre. The West Bank is different. Although Israel has fought terrorist cells in the northern cities of Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nablus, nothing like Gaza-grade destruction has been visited upon West Bank Palestinians. West Bank terrorism is simply less threatening to Israelis because over two decades of ongoing Israeli operations have kept terror networks from forming. Cole Aronson is a journalist based in Jerusalem. Avi Bell is a professor of law at Bar-Ilan University. (The Dispatch) Israeli Security Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Hizbullah are delaying a retaliatory attack against Israel due in part to the readiness of the IDF to launch a counterattack against any aggression from Iran or Hizbullah. Recent overflights by Israeli Air Force jets above Beirut aim not only to intimidate Lebanese residents but also to exploit Israel's aerial superiority and maintain constant surveillance for any preparations for an attack on Israel. The skies over Lebanon and western Syria are densely populated with armed aircraft and drones, ready to strike within minutes if a missile launcher is detected. While drones and Grad rockets are relatively easy to conceal, heavier missiles that require preparation for launch are more easily detected by Israel's advanced monitoring systems. Iran's missiles require about an hour to prepare for launch, including fueling, making them detectable by satellite surveillance. Iran and Hizbullah understand that Israel and the U.S. will not preemptively strike, but they will likely act during or after an attack through a counterstrike. (Ynet News) Following the targeting of senior Hizbullah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Israel has been readying itself for an attack from Iran and Lebanon. For now, there is no need for Israel to take preemptive action against Iran unless one of the players escalates to full-scale war. Israel will certainly react to any Iranian and Hizbullah attacks with strikes of its own, in a manner reflecting the outcome of their attacks. There is also consensus in Israel that Hizbullah's continued presence on the northern frontier is unacceptable. A ceasefire with Hizbullah would not be enough to make evacuated Israeli citizens comfortable about moving back to their homes in the north. That sense of security will only come if the group is fully removed from the border and Israel must be prepared to do what is necessary in the north. Regarding a Gaza ceasefire, Hamas commander Yahya Sinwar has not yet reached the point of desperation. Israel may control the Philadelphi Corridor between Egypt and Gaza, but Hamas still has access to some of its weapons supply lines. The writer, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, formerly served as director-general of the Israel Defense Ministry and commander of the Israel Air Force. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) "It's important to remember that we have no real reason for war against the Iranian people, quite the opposite. Iran is ruled by a regime hated by most Iranians. Therefore, Israel must ensure it does not harm Iranian civilians, only regime assets." "We have the capability to hit their oil fields, which is a very serious matter - because the Chinese have a deal to purchase oil from Iran for the next 25 years. If China wants to ensure a steady oil supply from Iran, it will have to restrain Tehran because damage to the oil fields could leave the Chinese freezing." "Iran is a militarily and economically weak country. The ayatollahs' regime fears for its future, which is why they have avoided investing in strengthening the army, fearing it would support the overthrow of their regime....Their air force is outdated and irrelevant, and they pose no threat. We [Israel], on the other hand, can do as we please in Tehran....The Iranians are highly exposed and have more reasons to fear than we do." Dr. Dan Sagir, an Israeli nuclear researcher, is a Research Fellow at the Institute for International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. (Israel Hayom) Few people in the West can imagine the experience of living day-to-day while anticipating a major attack. Ordinary Israeli citizens are going about their lives in the knowledge that, sooner or later, Iran will try to destroy them. Yet it is becoming increasingly apparent that Iran does not want war right now. This has been the consensus of intelligence analysts in the fortnight that has passed since the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Israel's enemies have seen the consequences of embedding your combatants among your own civilians. Jerusalem will do its utmost to target only the terrorists but ultimately, mess with the Jews and you will be bombed towards the Stone Age. Remember Rafah? President Biden was adamant that the IDF refrain from entering the town, citing the risk of mass civilian casualties. The fact that it was strategically vital as the location of the smuggling routes from Egypt apparently made no difference. Prime Minister Netanyahu finally ignored him and gave the green light. In ten days, a million civilians were evacuated to safety. Israeli forces quickly conquered the town with very low casualties. Now, despite the White House's best efforts, Hamas is in a final chokehold, deprived of the means for replenishing its weapons and cash. After the mass attack from Iran on Israel in April, the White House once again demanded "de-escalation," publicly counseling Jerusalem to "take the win." Knowing the laws of the Middle East, Netanyahu understood that this could not be an option, or the jackals would circle. His calibrated response was a surgical attack on a radar station near Tehran's sensitive nuclear site at Natanz. Netanyahu was saying: You fired 300 missiles at us with next to no damage. We fired two and hit one of your most closely-guarded assets. Beware. A similar message was sent by Jerusalem when Ismail Haniyeh was targeted in one of Iran's most closely-guarded facilities in Tehran: We can reach you anywhere. Israelis understand the experience of suffering a major attack. That tends to focus the mind on the need to deter the enemy. In the Middle East, peace is won through strength. Israel learned this long ago. What would it take for the West to catch on? (Telegraph-UK) Palestinian Arabs On October 7, 2023, Palestinian arch-terrorist Mohammed Deif festively heralded the opening of their brutal massacre as "the Al-Aqsa Flood," in which over a thousand Israeli citizens and foreign residents were cruelly and brutally murdered, raped, violated and kidnapped. The decision to integrally link this horrific massacre with Islam's third most holy site carried with it a clear intent and message - to present Hamas, before the Islamic world, as the sole and most worthy defender of Islam's holy sites, and in so doing to attract the support of all of Islam in the war against Israel and the Jews. One may well wonder how millions of Muslims worldwide are able to resignedly tolerate and live with the regrettable association and identification of one of their holiest religious sites with one of civilization's most cruel massacres? The juxtaposition of the religion of Islam with the October 7 massacre and its fruition in the form of one of the cruelest massacres since the Holocaust should be treated by the international community as an ominous precedent. The writer, Director of the Institute for Diplomatic Affairs at the Jerusalem Center, served as Legal Adviser and Deputy Director-General of Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro wrote an opinion piece in his college newspaper when he was 20 after the 1993 Oslo accords, which put Yasser Arafat in charge of the Palestinian Authority in Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Recalling Neville Chamberlain's proclamation of "peace for our time" after meeting with Hitler in 1938, Shapiro found it "extremely difficult to trust a man with as much blood on his hands as Arafat, who was also on both the Israeli and American lists of international terrorists." Shapiro ended with hope for a peace that can come only when the children of Ishmael agree to coexist with the children of Isaac. When Germans spread fascist antisemitism in the 1920s and '30s, they found no American allies among liberals in the universities, media or government. Today, Islamists have penetrated all these institutions and seek control over the Democratic Party. The military war against Israel is being fought as a political war in America. The ideology that blames Israel as "racist oppressor" has been enthusiastically welcomed by homegrown intersectional coalitions of disaffected minorities, delighted to put a Jewish face on their otherwise abstract targets. People whose forebears found refuge in the U.S. now burn its flag on campuses that welcome them as students. Mr. Shapiro in 1993 felt free to tell the truth about the enemies of freedom, hoping for Middle Eastern reform while valuing Israel as America's own fighting front line. We can only hope that today's college students will, like him, become "advocates of realism" rather than the kind of Islamist appeasers his party is pressing him to become. The writer is professor emerita of Yiddish and comparative literature at Harvard. (Wall Street Journal) Walter Russell Mead writes that for a Palestinian consensus for peace to emerge, "Palestinians would need to see realistic proposals for a two-state solution that respects their dignity and responds to their needs" (Wall Street Journal, Aug. 6). The problem is that, on available evidence from surveys of Palestinian opinion, the only solution that respects their dignity and responds to their needs is a Jew-free, river-to-the-sea solution. That alone redeems their dishonor from decades of defeat at the hands of the despised Jews. The Palestinians who truly want peace with their Israeli neighbors are at risk of their lives from the Palestinian majority that is willing to sacrifice its children's future in the cause of ethnic cleansing of Jews from all of Israel. No U.S. president will have the power to refocus the Palestinians on a compelling vision of peace with Israel unless and until the Palestinian majority gives up on its dream of defeating the Jews. (Wall Street Journal) Weekend Features A new video series from PragerU - Israel at War - features Israeli historian Amb. Michael Oren explaining five of Israel's past major wars. Israel at War: 1948 Israel at War: 1956 Israel at War: 1967 Israel at War: 1973 Israel at War: 1982 (PragerU) Observations: The Only Obstacle to an Israeli Military Victory in Gaza Is Washington - Maj. (ret.) Andrew Fox (Tablet)
The writer, who served in the British Army from 2005-21, is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. |
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