Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs

DAILY ALERT
Sunday,
September 15, 2024
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:

  • Missile Fired from Yemen Hits Israel
    A surface-to-surface missile was fired at central Israel from Yemen on Sunday, hitting an unpopulated area. (Reuters)
  • Israel Destroyed Iranian Underground Missile Factory in Syria Ground Raid - Barak Ravid
    The IDF raided Syria in a ground operation on Sep. 8 and destroyed an underground precision missile factory built by Iran. Israel briefed the Biden administration in advance of the operation. The Iranians began building the underground facility in coordination with Hizbullah and Syria in 2018 after Israeli airstrikes destroyed most of the Iranian missile production infrastructure in Syria. Israeli intelligence monitored the building for five years and realized they would not be able to destroy the facility with an airstrike. (Axios)
  • How Hamas Uses Brutality to Maintain Power - Julian E. Barnes
    The bodies of six Israeli hostages recovered last month provided a visceral reminder of Hamas's brutality. Each had been shot in the head. But Hamas also uses violence to maintain its control over Gaza's population. In July, Amin Abed, a Palestinian activist who has spoken out publicly about Hamas, was attacked by Hamas security operatives, who covered his head and dragged him away before repeatedly striking him with hammers and metal bars. In a phone interview from his hospital bed, referring to Hamas, he said, "They almost killed me, those killers and criminals."
        In September, the Palestinian Journalists' Syndicate blasted the "policy of intimidation and threat" facing some journalists in Gaza after a group of gunmen stormed the home of Ehab Fasfous, a reporter and social media activist. Fasfous, a well-known critic of Hamas, has long been targeted by the group's general security service, a secret police force in Gaza that has conducted surveillance on everyday Palestinians.
        On Wednesday, Abed left Gaza, one of dozens of wounded and ill people whom Israel permitted to travel to the UAE for treatment. "I feel safe for the first time in 17 years," he said from his hospital bed in Abu Dhabi. "There's no one that wants to kill, arrest or follow me."  (New York Times)
  • Iran Turns to Criminal Gangs to Target Critics - Greg Miller
    Exiled Iranian journalist Pouria Zeraati had been moved in and out of safe houses by London's Metropolitan Police. Yet, on March 29, he was stabbed four times outside his home in the London suburb of Wimbledon by assailants who were not from Iran, according to British investigators. Instead, Iran hired criminals in Eastern Europe who encountered few obstacles as they cleared security checks at Heathrow Airport, spent days tracking Zeraati, and then caught departing flights just hours after carrying out the ambush.
        U.S. and Western security officials, formerly focused on tracking operatives from Russia's GRU or Iran's Revolutionary Guard, now confront plots handed off to criminal networks deeply embedded in Western society. In recent years, Iran has outsourced lethal operations and abductions to Hells Angels biker gangs, a Russian mob network known as "Thieves in Law," a heroin distribution syndicate led by an Iranian narco-trafficker, and violent criminal groups from Scandinavia to South America. (Washington Post)

  • News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

  • IDF: UNRWA Staffer Killed in West Bank Raid Was Hurling Explosives at Troops
    UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, said Friday that Sufyan Jaber Abed Jawwad, one of its employees, was killed this week during an Israeli raid in the West Bank. IDF spokesperson Nadav Shoshani said Jawwad was throwing explosives at troops. "The terrorist was known to Israeli security forces and he had been complicit in additional terrorist activities. This is yet another example of an UNRWA employee taking active part in terrorist activities against Israel, as has been proven in several other cases in the past, including employees who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre."  (Times of Israel)
  • Hamas Terrorists Killed in Gaza Strike Were UNRWA Employees - Danielle Greyman-Kennard
    After UNRWA said that its staffers were killed in a strike on the Al Jaouni School in Nuseirat in central Gaza on Wednesday, the IDF revealed Thursday that nine terrorists had been eliminated in the strike. Muhammad Adnan Abu Zayd, an UNRWA employee and one of the nine, launched mortars at Israel. Yasser Ibrahim Abu Sharar, another employee of UNRWA, was a member of Hamas's Izzadin al-Qassam Brigades, as was Ayad Matar.
        Other terrorists named by the IDF were Aysar Karadia; Bassem Majed Shaheen, who took part in the Oct. 7 attack; Amar al-Jadili; Akram Saber al-Ghalaydi; Muhammad Issa Abu al-Amir, also involved in the Oct. 7 attack; and Sharif Salam. (Jerusalem Post)
        See also Israel Responds to UN Criticism of Attack on Gaza Terrorists - Daniel Edelson
    After UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called the killing of UNRWA workers in Gaza by IDF forces "completely unacceptable," Israel's ambassador to the UN Danny Danon responded: "What is 'unacceptable' is the fact that the UN Secretary General refuses to recognize reality and continues to distort it. Terrorists who operate out of a civilian structure that was used by UNRWA in the past are not 'innocent actors'."  (Ynet News)
  • Hamas Warehouses in Gaza Are Overflowing with Stolen Humanitarian Aid
    Hamas terrorists have confiscated so much humanitarian aid that it is struggling to find space in warehouses to store all of it, according to intercepted communications between Hamas operatives that were played on Israel's Channel 12 on Friday. One operative said, "At this point, we have everything....The warehouse is at full capacity."
        The recordings expose how Hamas takes control of these shipments and also highlight how this aid is not being used for humanitarian purposes but is instead aiding the enemy. (Jerusalem Post)
  • Most Hamas Weapons from Egypt Came through Rafah Crossing, Not Tunnels - Yonah Jeremy Bob
    The main goal of the Philadelphi Corridor tunnels for Hamas was not to smuggle weapons but to facilitate firing long-range rockets, IDF sources said Thursday. IDF sources said Rafah and the corridor had one of Hamas's largest long-range rocket arsenals.
        Hamas's strategy was to place the long-range rockets and their launchers next to the border with Egypt to deter Israel from striking them. Hamas rocket teams would hide in the large tunnels, which held launchers and inventories of rockets. The IDF did not invade Rafah during any of the large conflicts in 2008-09, 2012, 2014, and 2021, giving the Hamas rocket crews a sense of immunity.
        The largest number of weapons in Hamas's arms buildup is believed to have come aboveground through the Rafah Crossing, IDF sources said. Moreover, the IDF believes that when Mohamed Morsi was president of Egypt from 2012-2013, he allowed an unprecedented amount of weapons to go through the Rafah Crossing and the cross-border tunnels. (Jerusalem Post)
        See also No Active Cross-Border Tunnels Found in Rafah - Emanuel Fabian
    The IDF has killed at least 2,308 operatives of Hamas's Rafah Brigade and destroyed over 13 km. (8 miles) of tunnels, military officials said Thursday. Brig.-Gen. Itzik Cohen said his combat engineering forces located 203 separate, but interconnected, tunnels in the Philadelphi Corridor, including 9 that had crossed into Egypt, but every single one had been blocked up before the IDF arrived. "There are a total of nine underground sites [tunnels] that cross into Egyptian territory, but they have collapsed, they are not usable, they are not active," he said. (Times of Israel)
  • Israel to Respond Against PA If Palestinians Win at UN - Shirit Avitan Cohen
    Israel is girding for a diplomatic confrontation at the UN as the Palestinian Authority pushes for a General Assembly resolution calling for an international arms embargo and sanctions. Israeli officials say the PA's moves violate the Oslo Accords and have crafted a series of countermoves, from halting fund transfers to severing security cooperation.
        Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Danon blasted the move and urged democratic nations to reject a resolution that he says turns a blind eye to Palestinian terrorism. On Sep. 18, a vote on the Palestinian resolution is widely expected to pass by a comfortable margin.
        "The Palestinians are waging diplomatic terror, and the UN is complicit - it's a new moral low," Danon told Israel Hayom. "It's a blatant politicization and misuse of UN resources, dedicating an entire week to Palestinian issues while turning a blind eye to 101 hostages languishing in Gaza without Red Cross access, and hundreds of thousands of Israelis displaced by multi-front Iranian attacks. I urge UN member states to oppose these moves that effectively reward terrorism and the slaughter of innocent civilians."  (Israel Hayom)

  • Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:


    The Gaza War

  • "I Cannot Let People Say that Israel Is Targeting Civilians, because That Is Wrong" - Bernard-Henri Levy interviewed by Celia Walden
    French philosopher, war reporter and documentary-maker Bernard-Henri Levy described the scene at what was left of Kibbutz Kfar Aza in Israel on Oct. 10. "The bodies of the victims had been buried by that point, but there were still pieces of bodies that hadn't been assigned yet. They were stacked in a corner of a vegetable shed that was being used to house unidentified body parts. And that image? There is not a day or a night when I do not see it in my head. It follows me around constantly."
        We're speaking on Zoom. For the past year, he has been living in an undisclosed location under very heavy police protection, after intelligence officials discovered that the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had paid an Iranian drug dealer $150,000 to assassinate Levy, who has been critical of the country's leadership.
        He says that after Oct. 7, "there's a realization not just that things will never be the same again, but that things were not what we thought they were before....Hours after the attack, there were...actual, veritable explosions of joy. Professors at U.S. universities with huge online followings recorded and broadcast messages of absolute joy. This, when the bodies of the dead had not even all been buried." He points out that even many of those who did offer early support began to fall away within the ensuing weeks and months.
        Asked if he still believes Israel's response has been just, he doesn't have to think about it for a second: "Yes. I still don't think the response has been disproportionate." When filming the liberation of Mosul in 2016, he says, "I saw what indiscriminate hits looked like, what the desire to destroy a place from top to toe looks like, and let me tell you: that is not what is happening in Gaza."
        He also stands by the assertion that Israel "has done everything to avoid civilian casualties....I've been covering wars for 40 years, and it's the first time in my life that I've ever seen an army open up a corridor every day between 6 a.m. and noon in order to warn civilians that they are going to hit an area where they are. The Israeli army is the first army in the world that I have seen say: 'We're going to hit here - please move'."
        "I cannot let people say that the hits are indiscriminate and targeting civilians, because that is wrong. And I cannot allow it to be said that there has been a genocide, because that is wrong."  (Telegraph-UK)
  • Why Israel Can't Give Up the Philadelphi Corridor - Josef Joffe
    The Philadelphi Corridor, a tiny sliver of land separating Egypt from Gaza, served as a key conduit for arms and cash flows to Hamas. Loath to re-occupy all of Gaza after its withdrawal in 2005, the IDF had regularly returned to "mow the grass," to cut down Hamas's war-making potential. Yet after each IDF incursion, Hamas rebounded with better gear and training. Cairo could not or would not stop the flow - as it won't if the IDF pulls out.
        While it is claimed that the IDF will have to withdraw from the corridor in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages, Hamas will not release all the hostages, for the simple reason that the value of each remaining Israeli hostage will rise. What is more likely is that they will dribble them out and keep the remainder as bargaining chips to maintain pressure, trading lives for concessions. This game will not end.
        The writer is former publisher-editor of Die Zeit. (UnHerd)
  • Hamas Is Weakened, But Maintains Control of Gaza - Ido Levy
    Despite its severe military degradation, Hamas has largely maintained its grip over Gaza's population. Sustaining the IDF's gains and securing a postwar stabilization mission will require a long military campaign. Israel, the U.S., and Arab partners should assume that Hamas remnants will strive to reassert full control over Gaza - just as jihadist efforts persist in Iraq, Syria, Somalia, and elsewhere.
        None of the countries that would presumably be involved in peacekeeping missions are likely to sign up while Gaza is still torn by violence. Moreover, failure to impose an enduring defeat on Hamas may allow the rise of younger fighters who are currently gaining valuable combat experience, setting the stage for more arduous battles in the future. So far, Israel appears to be the only actor willing to do the hard fighting that removing Hamas from power necessitates.
        The writer is an associate fellow at The Washington Institute. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
  • Special IDF Unit Handles Imprisoned Hamas Nukhba Terrorists - Shosh Mula
    Force 100 is the IDF unit responsible for handling unusual incidents involving Hamas's Nukhba terrorists imprisoned at the Sde Teiman base. The Nukhba led the attack on Israel on Oct. 7. Recently, some of the unit's soldiers were investigated after a complaint by a Nukhba terrorist. Five other fighters of the unit have provided a rare glimpse into what they do inside the terrorist detention facility.
        There are between 100 and 120 terrorists in each of the detention cells. Gideon (alias) said, "People don't get it. If it wasn't for us, the Nukhba terrorists would have surely raped soldiers - female and male - at Sde Teiman by now. Or the terrorists altogether would have risen up and hurt them, let alone kidnap and take them hostage for bargaining purposes." Yossi (alias) said, "It is possible that without us being here, there would have been a mass escape of hundreds of Nukhba terrorists to the area that borders Gaza."
        After Oct. 7, thousands of terrorists were captured in Israel. The Israel Prison Service was not equipped to house the overwhelming number of detainees, so a detention facility was opened at Sde Teiman, as had been done in previous wars with Hamas. The guarding and treatment of terrorists in Sde Teiman falls mainly on Military Police soldiers, who are not trained to deal with dangerous terrorists.
        The IDF feared - and rightly so - that extreme scenarios would develop in Sde Teiman, such as a mass escape, an uprising or the kidnapping of soldiers and taking them hostage. That is why it was necessary to establish a special force, trained for such scenarios.
        Yossi explained, "We are all fighters coming from special units, we went through tests and sorting, then intensive training for a month." Gideon said, "When we accept fighters into the unit, we instruct them to use reasonable force according to the regulations and laws, explaining what is allowed and what is not."
        Oren (alias) explains what they find while doing searches of prisoners: "We found steel, screws, pieces that they take apart from the showers, or pieces of thin plastic, which they sharpen to be used as weapons." Moshe (alias) added: "We also find thin pipes that they make from the wire fence they dismantle, transforming them into weapons, or steel with which they cut their own [zip-tie] handcuffs or create some kind of spikes."
        Gideon said, "We fear that at the moment of truth, the terrorists will take advantage of our weaknesses and slaughter the Military Police officers and everyone who happens to be in the area. And if they have not done it until today, it is only thanks to Force 100 and our deterrence....Everyone there has blood on their hands, they are well-trained terrorists who have undergone grueling training in the terrorist organizations specifically to perform these kinds of missions."  (Ynet News)
  • EU Foreign Policy Chief Cancels Israel Trip after Israel Rejects Official Visit
    EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has canceled a planned trip to Israel after Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said he would not be allowed to make an official visit, Ynet reported on Thursday. Borrell had announced his intentions to visit Israel on Sept. 14 and 15. However, Jerusalem rejected those dates and called on him to coordinate a visit in late October, which would come after his term in Brussels concluded.
        Borrell has been a harsh critic of Israeli policies toward the Palestinians, at times making incendiary remarks. Last month he asked EU members to consider imposing sanctions on Israeli ministers. In March, he accused Israel of "provoking famine" in Gaza. Katz has called on Borrell to stop bashing Israel and recognize its right to defend itself. (JNS)


  • Israeli Security

  • Israel and the Coming Long War - Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Assaf Orion
    From the outset, "the Gaza war" was a misnomer. In some ways, this wider regional war is already at hand. Ever since Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, Israel has faced not one but numerous antagonists in what is already one of the longest wars since its founding. The day after Hamas's assault from Gaza, Hizbullah began attacking Israel from Lebanon. Shortly thereafter, the Houthis in Yemen also joined in.
        Meanwhile, Shiite militias in Iraq, and sometimes Syria, have also menaced Israel with drones and rockets. And in mid-April, Iran launched 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel, creating a new precedent for direct and open combat between the two countries. At the same time, Iran has been flooding the West Bank with funds and weapons to encourage terrorist attacks against Israel.
        Just as it took several wars and many decades for Israel to vanquish the threat of Arab coalitions, victory over the Iranian axis will require a prolonged struggle. The current war must be seen in relation to Iran's larger, long-term project to bleed out and destroy Israel.
        Sooner or later, Israel will have to address the Hizbullah threat in Lebanon. Optimally, it would do this by means of a carefully planned, preventive attack at a time of its choosing. If it becomes clear that Hizbullah is preparing for a major attack on Israel, it would be wise for Israel to consider another preemptive strike, but this time with much stronger signaling, including lethal force against a broader range of targets.
        To truly end the threat posed by the Houthis to international interests will require a collective approach that addresses the supply chain that is funneling Iranian support and weapons technology to the Houthis and by weakening the Houthis' power in Yemen by reinforcing their competitors.
        The writer, a former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division, is an international fellow with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.  (Foreign Affairs)


  • The Peace Process

  • Peace Requires Genuine Partners - Liat Collins
    Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is again negotiating with the Palestinians. His partner is former PA foreign minister Nasser al-Kidwa, Arafat's nephew, who, in 2004, launched the campaign against Israel in the International Court of Justice for building the security fence as a means of tackling terrorism.
        The plan is similar to the one drawn up between Abbas and Olmert in 2008, with 4% of the total territory of the West Bank annexed by Israel, with Israeli territory being swapped in its place, including a corridor linking Gaza and the West Bank. Having a Palestinian corridor cutting across Israel will not improve its security.
        The plans for Jerusalem would make all Arab neighborhoods that were not part of Israel before 1967 part of Palestinian Jerusalem. The plan also calls for the involvement of five countries in control of the redivided Israeli capital. The idea is to push Israelis tired of the war, and the West enmeshed in its own socio-economic and political problems, to agree to something - anything - that would theoretically make the century-old problem disappear.
        The Knesset in July passed a declaration - supported by members of the opposition - against establishing a Palestinian state, saying it would present an existential threat to Israel and, if created now, would be perceived as rewarding terrorism and would strengthen Hamas, encouraging further massacres like Oct. 7 and furthering Islamist jihadist control in the Middle East.
        The Middle East doesn't need another "peace process." It needs peace. And that requires genuine partners, not people who continue to incite, pray for, and pay for the destruction of the sovereign Jewish state. (Jerusalem Post)


  • Other Issues

  • The International Solidarity Movement's Victims - Lenny Ben-David
    Aysenur Eygi, Rachel Corrie, and Emily Henochowicz were recruits to the radical, anarchist, anti-Israel International Solidarity Movement. They were passionate and careless newbies at real-life Palestinian demonstrations (not the U.S. campus camping experience), and they were killed or wounded in incidents where ISM producers were present.
        When Corrie was severely injured after carelessly "playing chicken" with a bulldozer 22 years ago, one of the ISM members did not rush to her aid, but fluttered around, taking pictures. Most ISM volunteers are in the territories for only several weeks. They are quickly thrown into the front lines, where, as human shields, they become PR assets. (JNS)

  • Observations:

    Deradicalizing Gaza - Cole S. Aronson (European Conservative)

  • After World War II, there was no postwar insurgency. After the Nazis and imperial Japanese surrendered, groups of disaffected soldiers did not lead violent campaigns to restore the defeated regimes. The occupations of Germany and Japan were peaceful. Both countries became reliable American allies. Hundreds of thousands of the defeated regimes' supporters - including senior officials, including war criminals - escaped serious punishment, rejoined society, and sometimes gained political influence. And still the peace was kept. How did the populations that had supported and fought for the Axis regimes get moderated?
  • Politically speaking, ideas can certainly be destroyed, just as they can be weakened, or die peacefully, or be resurrected. Imperialism was destroyed in Japan. Baathism was destroyed in Iraq. Communism died (without war) in Russia. Nazism was destroyed in Germany. Hamas's bellicose Islamism might be destroyed in Gaza, not necessarily because Gazans stop believing, deep down, that Hamas has noble ideals. Rather, because Hamas's ideals are deprived of the instruments of political power - armed militants.
  • Military losses and urban destruction can improve political cultures. Populations can abandon the aims that motivated them very recently to support aggressive wars and the regimes that start them. Deradicalization begins as civilians are persuaded of the futility and costliness of the aims of those who rule them. The German and Japanese peoples lost their homes, their streets, and their comfort, brought on by their regimes' failed wars. Military defeats showed the Axis projects to be futile. In great measure, the German and Japanese peoples were deradicalized by the war itself.
  • Since Oct. 7, Israel has undertaken a war of Palestinian regime change and is doing a remarkable job given its political constraints. Hamas's Gaza leadership is hiding or dead. The majority of Hamas battalions have disintegrated into gangs. More than 17,000 fighters have been killed. Israel's current campaign makes a moderate Gaza more likely, not less. Destroying Hamas not only deprives Islamists of the ability to rule - it proves the futility of armed resistance to Israel, a condition for peace.
  • A noteworthy obstacle to moderate Palestinian governance is the lack of much precedent for it. For a hundred years, Palestinians have been led either by out-and-out Islamists like Hajj Amin al-Husseini - a wartime guest of the Third Reich - and like Hamas, or by better-marketed militants like Palestinian Authority chiefs Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas. Palestinian leaders have shared certain broad commitments: to brutalizing their domestic opponents and to terrorizing Jews.
  • A long-term Israeli military presence will be needed to protect non-Hamas Palestinian leaders after main hostilities calm down. The Palestinians are now suffering as never before for their leaders' viciousness. The leaders themselves are in dire condition, with more killed every week. The Hamas movement looks like a losing, destructive, and pathetic cause. Palestinians know it, more or more each day.