| DAILY ALERT |
Thursday, September 19, 2024 |
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Pagers carried by Hizbullah members exploded simultaneously across Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least 11 people and wounding at least 2,700 others, officials said. Hizbullah has used pagers for years to make it harder for messages to be intercepted. At 3:30 p.m., the pagers received a message that appeared to come from Hizbullah's leadership, before exploding. In Syria, the exploding pagers injured at least 14 people. Among those wounded was Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amini. After Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned in February that Israeli operatives could be using members' cellphones to spy on them, he encouraged Hizbullah members to switch to a new system of wireless paging devices. (New York Times) See also Israel Pushed Up Lebanon Pager Attack amid Hizbullah Suspicions - Barak Ravid Israel decided to blow up the pager devices carried by Hizbullah members in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday out of concern its secret operation might have been discovered, three U.S. officials said. "It was a use it or lose it moment," one U.S. official said. Al-Monitor reported that two Hizbullah operatives had raised suspicions about the pagers in recent days. On Tuesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant called U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and told him Israel was about to conduct an operation in Lebanon soon, but did not give specific details. (Axios) Hand-held walkie-talkies and other wireless communication devices used by Hizbullah were detonated across Lebanon on Wednesday, killing at least nine people and injuring more than 300. Explosions took place, including from hand-held radios, in southern Beirut, Tyre, Nabatiyeh, Hermel and the Bekaa Valley, as well as in scattered villages and towns in the south, all areas with a heavy Hizbullah presence. Images circulated on social media for the second day running, showing fire-damaged cars and motorbikes, homes and shops ablaze, and people being rushed to hospitals in ambulances. (Financial Times-UK) See also 20 Killed, 450 Wounded in 2nd Wave of Hizbullah Device Explosions - Emanuel Fabian (Times of Israel) See also Hizbullah Hit by Second Wave of Explosive Device Attacks - Summer Said The walkie-talkies that exploded across Lebanon on Wednesday had new batteries that had arrived in a recent shipment and had been distributed to a narrower range of Hizbullah members than the pagers. Former Israeli military officials said Israel's attack was likely aimed at forcing Hizbullah to stop its cross-border attacks that have displaced tens of thousands of Israelis and was designed to show that there is a price for its support for Hamas. "The purpose of such an operation was not to escalate, it was to reach a settlement that will allow people to go back to their houses," said Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of research for Israeli military intelligence. "This act is meant to convince Hizbullah to accept an arrangement that makes that possible." (Wall Street Journal) The UN General Assembly on Wednesday voted 124-14, with 43 abstentions, to support a nonbinding Palestinian resolution demanding that Israel end its presence in Gaza and the West Bank within a year. The U.S. and Israel voted against the resolution, while Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, India, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine and the UK abstained. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon slammed the vote as "a shameful decision that backs the Palestinian Authority's diplomatic terrorism. Instead of marking the anniversary of the Oct. 7 massacre by condemning Hamas and calling for the release of all 101 of the remaining hostages, the General Assembly continues to dance to the music of the Palestinian Authority, which backs the Hamas murderers." The U.S. mission to the UN called the resolution "one-sided," pointing to its failure to recognize that Hamas, "a terrorist organization," still exerts power in Gaza and to state that Israel has a right to defend itself from acts of terrorism. "This resolution will not bring about tangible progress for Palestinians," the U.S. said. "In fact, it could both complicate efforts to end the conflict in Gaza and impede reinvigorating steps toward a two-state solution, while ignoring Israel's very real security concerns." The resolution demands the withdrawal of all Israeli forces and the evacuation of Israeli civilians from the territories, urges countries to impose sanctions on those responsible for maintaining Israel's presence in the territories, and halt arms exports to Israel if they're suspected of being used in the territories. The resolution also calls for Israel to pay reparations to the Palestinians. (AP-Washington Post) See also How Countries Voted (UN News) See also Israel Condemns UN General Assembly Vote Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Oren Marmorstein said Wednesday on X: The political theater called the General Assembly today adopted a distorted decision that is disconnected from reality, encourages terrorism and harms the chances for peace. The decision of the General Assembly tells a one-sided, fictional story, in which countless murderous terrorist attacks on the citizens of the State of Israel do not take place; in which Israeli children, women and men were not victims of the horrific atrocities committed by the Hamas terrorist organization during the Oct. 7 massacre; in which Israel is not being attacked on a daily basis from seven different fronts by terrorist organizations led by Iran; and where the State of Israel and the Jewish people have no historical rights in the Land of Israel. The resolution sends a message that terrorism pays off and yields international resolutions. The decision only encourages Hamas's rejectionism and undermines the foundation of any attempt to promote a peaceful solution to the conflict. (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs) In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Finland's President Alexander Stubb defended his country's decision to buy arms from Israel, saying it had no link to Finland's unwillingness to recognize an independent Palestinian state at the present time. Finland is acquiring the high altitude, David's Sling missile defense system from Israel. Helsinki considers the system a high priority for its own defense due to neighboring Russia's ongoing missile attacks on civilian and military targets in Ukraine. Stubb, who took office in March, has defined Finland's new foreign policy stance as "values-based realism," which was about "achieving things in the world as it is," instead of "promoting only the world as how I want to see it." He added that the time was not right to recognize a Palestinian state, even though its Nordic neighbors, Sweden and Norway, have done so. (Reuters) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
According to official updates from Lebanon, 12 people were killed when thousands of pagers exploded on Tuesday and 20 in the walkie-talkie blasts on Wednesday, but in Israel officials believe this is significantly lower than reality. It is estimated that there are many dozens of dead, if not more. Significant damage was inflicted on Hizbullah's special operations Radwan force, which lost large parts of its command structure. (Ynet News) 19 Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed after their pagers exploded in Deir ez-Zur in eastern Syria, Saudi news source Al-Hadith reported Wednesday. An additional 150 IRGC members were wounded. (Jerusalem Post) See also Explosions Occurred in Iraq at the Same Time as in Lebanon - Lior Ben Ari (Ynet News) Four Israeli soldiers were killed in Tel al-Sultan, just north of Rafah in southern Gaza, on Tuesday after a hidden explosive device detonated and caused a partial collapse of the building they were in. Five other soldiers were wounded, three seriously. Staff Sergeant Agam Naim, 20, a paramedic, was the first female soldier to be killed in Gaza. Also killed were Captain Daniel Mimon Toaff, 23; Staff Sergeant Amit Bakri, 21; and Staff Sergeant Dotan Shimon, 21. (Ha'aretz) Eight Israeli soldiers were injured, two seriously, on Thursday morning by anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon by Hizbullah west of Kiryat Shmona. (Times of Israel) The Israel Security Agency announced Tuesday that it had thwarted an attack by Hizbullah against a former senior security figure using a Claymore anti-personnel mine, which was intended to be carried out in the coming days. It was also revealed that an explosion in Yarkon Park in Tel Aviv last September was also an attempted attack by Hizbullah, using a similar device. (Ynet News) See also Ex-Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon Named as Hizbullah Assassination Target Last Year - Avi Ashkenazi (Jerusalem Post) The deadly attack at the Allenby Crossing on Sep. 8 in which three Israeli security guards were killed reminded us of the dangers from Israel's eastern border with Jordan. The IDF plans to secure the Jordanian border with a new unit, barriers and drones. The first stage will involve the deployment of hundreds of surveillance radars and cameras. Then, Israel will place forces that can reach any location quickly in case of infiltration or smuggling. The IDF will also upgrade its local aerial capabilities and the barrier at the border. (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Hizbullah An ingenious and unprecedented attack against thousands of operatives of the Hizbullah terrorist organization using exploding pagers was carried out in a dozen Hizbullah centers in Lebanon. Writing in the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, Hizbullah's mouthpiece, on Sep. 18, Ibrahim al-Amin, a close associate of Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, admits that Israel carried out an "extraordinary" military operation against Hizbullah, due to its intelligence and technological advantage. He claimed that more than 3,000 Hizbullah fighters were wounded. Israeli security sources believe that Hizbullah is preparing for a significant military response, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are taking measures accordingly. Analysts suggest that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, will determine the scope of Hizbullah's retaliation, wary of triggering a broader regional conflict. Since Oct. 7, Iran has taken care to avoid escalating tensions, fearing an Israeli strike on its oil infrastructure or nuclear facilities. This operation has severely damaged Hizbullah's standing, humiliating its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who is now under pressure to restore the group's tarnished image. This successful strike temporarily crippled Hizbullah's command and control infrastructure, dealing a significant blow to its operational capacity and morale. The writer, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs) I cannot find a similar intelligence-military operation with such secrecy, lethality, ingenuity, audacity, and impact - targeted lethal use of force, precise and proportionate, as many enemy hit over a wide geographic area. In a single operation, the terrorist group Hizbullah was significantly impacted. War is a contest of will. The psychological impact is massive. Hizbullah cannot trust their equipment, cannot communicate, and will likely change many elements of their operations with the potential to make further mistakes that can be exploited. With a single push of a button, fear was produced in the mass of Hizbullah forces. The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. (X) Current and former defense and intelligence officials who were briefed on the attack involving booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies said that B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front. B.A.C. produced a range of ordinary pagers, but the pagers produced separately for Hizbullah contained batteries laced with the explosive PETN. The pagers began shipping to Lebanon in the summer of 2022, but production was quickly ramped up after Hizbullah leader Nasrallah denounced cellphones. (New York Times) Some within the government and military argue that after the pager attacks, Israel should seize the opportunity to launch an offensive now against Hizbullah. However, a senior security official noted that Israel must also consider the position of the U.S., which has made it clear that it opposes expanding the war at this time. Israel cannot ignore this demand, as in the event of an all-out war, Iran and its proxies may come to Hizbullah's aid, and Israel would need U.S. defense systems to help respond to a multi-front assault. It is therefore likely that Israel will let Hizbullah make the next move. (Ynet News) The scene in Lebanon on Tuesday was like something out of a bizarre James Bond movie - with pagers exploding simultaneously in the pockets of hundreds of Hizbullah fighters around the country in what appeared to be an ingenious Israeli operation that combined cyberwar with sabotage. Israel didn't take credit for Tuesday's attack, but an attack of this sophistication and daring in Lebanon could not have been staged by any other nation. U.S. officials were in contact with Iran through a back channel on Tuesday to convey that the U.S. did not have any role in the attack. Israel sent an unmistakable message to the Iranian-backed militia: We own you. We can penetrate every space in which you operate. "When Hizbullah considers how to respond, they should consider that Israel may have more surprises for them. And Israel does," said one source familiar with Israeli thinking. Israel's desire to strike Hizbullah harder reflects a broad view among Israelis that the country can't afford what has become a prolonged war of attrition with the Lebanese militia. U.S. sources told me that Israeli agents likely got access to the pagers before they were distributed and inserted small amounts of very powerful explosives. Malware inserted into the pagers' operating systems likely created a cyber trigger, so that when the pagers received a signal, the explosives detonated. From a technical standpoint, it was a brilliant operation. Everyone on the military network was a target. Hizbullah has now lost its special internal communications system. (Washington Post) The explosion of pagers held by Hizbullah operatives across Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday is an audacious display of modern technological warfare. It's also a warning to Iran's Shiite proxy militia of the human price it will pay if it continues bombing northern Israel. More than 4,000 were injured and 11 killed, according to Lebanon. Israel has ample cause to target Hizbullah fighters who have fired more than 8,000 rockets at Israel since Oct. 7, forcing 60,000 Israelis from their homes for nearly a year. The bombing has widened recently to other Israeli cities. No sovereign state can tolerate this and Israel can't afford to let a terrorist militia backed by Iran and operating next door bomb its territory with impunity. The pager attack was discriminating, exploding in the hands and pockets of Hizbullah combatants. (Wall Street Journal) Reports from Lebanon suggest that the campaign of exploding communication devices was a significant and astonishing blow to Hizbullah, showcasing an impressive combination of penetration, technological, and intelligence capabilities. How much is Hizbullah willing to pay for its continued attacks on Israel in support of Hamas? Despite the heavy blows Hizbullah has suffered, it remains doubtful that Israel can compel it to withdraw its forces from the border for the long term, and ensure the safe return of northern Israel's residents. Yet the recent operation fundamentally changed the game, and everyone knows it. The writer is former Head of IDF Military Intelligence and former Director of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. (Times of Israel) The Gaza War The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) conducted a poll in the West Bank and Gaza on September 3-7, 2024. In Gaza, support for Hamas's decision to launch an offensive against Israel on Oct. 7 was 39%, down from 71% in March. 57% said the decision was incorrect, up from 23% in March. Support for Oct. 7 in the West Bank was 64% versus 21% opposed. When asked if Hamas had committed the atrocities seen in the videos from Oct. 7 against Israeli civilians, such as killing women and children in their homes, 89% said Hamas did not commit such atrocities, and only 8% said it did. Asked who will win the war, only 28% of Gazans said Hamas, down from 56% in March. 25% said Israel. 65% in the West Bank said Hamas will win. Asked who will rule Gaza after the war ends, 37% of Gazans said Hamas, down from 46% three months ago. 70% in the West Bank said Hamas. 77% of West Bankers say they fear the spread of war from Gaza to the West Bank. 63% of West Bankers believe that if the war spreads to the West Bank, Israel will succeed in destroying most of its cities, as it did in Gaza. Asked which political party they support, in the West Bank, 37% said Hamas, while 18% said Fatah. In Gaza, 35% said Hamas, while 26% said Fatah. Overall, 43% believe that Hamas is most deserving to represent and lead the Palestinian people today, while 19% say Fatah. 58% oppose the concept of a two-state solution, while 39% support it. 48% support armed struggle as the best means of achieving Palestinian goals, while 30% support negotiations and 15% support peaceful popular resistance. In the West Bank, 56% support armed struggle, while 24% support negotiations. In Gaza, 40% support negotiations, while 36% support armed struggle. (PSR-PA) "We do not want to move towards the destruction of the West Bank the same way Gaza was destroyed. We will not allow the destruction of Gaza to repeat itself in the West Bank," Palestinian Interior Minister Ziad Hab Al-Reeh said on Sep. 11, 2024, on the PA's Hebron TV. "I personally receive complaints from many provinces, about gangs being formed....We will use all the power at our disposal to remove the pretexts for a repetition of the Gaza model...in order to prevent the loss of life among our people, and also to avoid any danger to our infrastructure." (MEMRI) The U.S. has spent months trying to pressure Israel into a long-term ceasefire with Hamas that would serve American interests. But the U.S. view fails to address Israel's need to ensure sustained freedom of operation in Gaza to prevent Hamas from regrouping; to counter Hizbullah's massive military-terrorist infrastructure and stop its 11-month-long assault on northern Israel; and to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, which are intended to provide a protective cover to the entire jihadist Iranian axis. While the U.S. has played a vital role in coordinating and taking part in defensive operations that have greatly benefited Israel, particularly during the April 14 Iranian missile and UAV attack on Israel, and has played an essential role in supplying Israel with war munitions, it has no desire to be drawn into sustained offensive operations against Iran. American efforts are therefore far from fully aligned with Israel's interests, as they apply a "band-aid" approach that would leave festering threats in place. American officials have released statements at almost every step of the war in Gaza designed to cast doubt on Israel's ability to deal with Hamas, as well as Israel's ability to militarily take on Hizbullah. Yet there appears to be no purpose to the release of these statements to the public by American officials other than the overall goal of pressuring Israel into a Gaza ceasefire. There is little reason to continue to pretend that American and Israeli security interests in the Middle East are identical. The U.S. long ago decided to seek de-escalation as its primary goal. Israelis should think twice before automatically accepting the claim that Washington's regional agenda and public statements always promote Israel's own critical security needs. The writer, a military affairs correspondent, is a research associate at the Miryam Institute and the Alma Center. (BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) On Sep. 12, Hamas repeated its demand that Israel withdraw completely from Gaza in order to reach a ceasefire-hostage agreement. In other words, Hamas is demanding that Israel lose the war so that the terrorist group can regroup, rearm and prepare for more attacks on Israel. Ending the war now means an Israeli surrender, ensuring that Hamas can continue to control Gaza. Hamas wants to see Israel defeated and humiliated. The terror group seeks to proclaim victory and send a message to Israel's enemies that the Oct. 7 atrocities were worth the high cost that Palestinians in Gaza have paid. Hamas is willing to fight to the last Palestinian and does not care if tens of thousands of its own people lose their lives as a result of the war it began. To understand the real intentions and aims of Hamas, just look at what it is saying in Arabic. Hamas and its allies are saying that the only deal they would accept is one that results in Israel raising a white flag. If Hamas is permitted to win the war, Iran and its other terror proxies will feel more empowered. This will convey to Muslim Jihadis worldwide that Israel and the West are too weak to protect their people and values against Islamist terror organizations. This weakness will lead to more terrorism, not only against Israel, but also against the U.S. and most Western nations. (Gatestone Institute) In an interview with the New York Times, Hamas political leader Khaled Mashaal revealed he thinks that Hamas is "winning the war" and that it will play a "decisive" role in Gaza in the future. One of the key fronts in this war is in the U.S., where the political battle over the war in Gaza has been going pretty much the way the terrorists wanted it to. After Oct. 7, the terrorists have been playing for time. And they expected that the time they needed to outlast the Israeli offensive would be provided to them by Israel's closest ally. President Joe Biden's initial response to the Oct. 7 massacre was to say that the only proper response was for Hamas to be "eliminated," but then he began to slowly back away from that position. Over the next several months, while Washington continued to supply Jerusalem with munitions badly needed by the IDF, the Pentagon started slow-walking their delivery to maintain leverage over the Israelis. Biden was heavily influenced by the open revolt against a pro-Israel policy from lower-level administrators and congressional staffers, as well as parts of his Democratic base. As a result, statements about the war soon were more about its impact on the Palestinians rather than the need to eliminate the terrorists who committed the largest mass slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust. Rather than push back against demands for an immediate ceasefire that would essentially save Hamas, the administration began pushing for a deal that would end the war at virtually any price, even if it didn't result in freedom for all of the Israeli hostages. Administration officials were soon parroting the defeatist line about Hamas being an "idea" that could not be defeated. By adopting this position that regarded Hamas as an eternal force, the opportunity to convince Palestinians to give up their fantasies about Israel's elimination was thrown away and their century-long war on Zionism prolonged. Combined with the post-Oct. 7 surge in antisemitism made obvious by the pro-Hamas encampments at elite universities, it gave Hamas every reason not to negotiate seriously for a hostage release deal. As Mashaal told the Times, Hamas viewed all of this as encouragement for its plan to hold out until U.S. and international pressure forced Israel to stand down and allow the Islamists to emerge as the victor in the war. Above all, Hamas views American pressure on Israel as its ace in the hole. (JNS) Antisemitism British Home Secretary Yvette Cooper told the Community Security Trust (CST) on Tuesday in London that "there is no place for the glorification of terrorism or support for proscribed terrorist groups like Hamas, Hizbullah or Hizb ut-Tahrir. No ifs and no buts - those who proliferate that poison, on the streets or online, must always face the full force of the law." "We know from experience that events in the Middle East can and do play out in increased tension and hatred here on our streets. And while there will always be room for fierce debate and disagreement on foreign policy issues...what is not acceptable, and will never be acceptable, is using conflict in the Middle East as a pretext to attack communities here in Britain." "The horrific and soaring levels of antisemitism we have seen over the last year cannot and will not be tolerated. Not now and not ever. Because there is no place for antisemitism in this country." (Jewish News-UK) Josep Borrell, the EU's top diplomat, has several times asserted: "Hamas represents an idea, and one cannot kill an idea with bombs." He doesn't say what idea Hamas represents. But I will. It's killing Jews. Exactly what you saw on Oct. 7, 2023. The Nazis had a similar idea. The slogan on the flag of the Iranian proxy Houthi rebels of Yemen states: "God Is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam." Hamas forcefully rejects a "two-state solution" based on its theological conviction that any territory ever conquered by Muslims is an endowment from Allah to the Muslims for eternity. The writer is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). (Washington Times) Other Issues Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Israel's Knesset some years ago: "Canada will always have Israel's back." When one perceives today's utter betrayal and hostility of Canada toward Israel by the present Canadian government, one cannot but be shocked and dismayed. A group of irresponsible politicians prefers to buy into the false and hostile "genocide" propaganda propagated by the Hamas terror organization, rather than to responsibly analyze and consider the truth. They permit such false and pernicious propaganda to dictate Canada's foreign policies. Canada is being dragged along by this group of sworn anti-Israel fanatics and propagandists. This betrayal of Israel is embarrassing for any true supporter of true Canadian values. It should be roundly condemned. Canada should be ashamed of itself. The writer, a former Israeli Ambassador to Canada, heads the international law program at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs. (Jerusalem Post) Weekend Features The stairway up to the first floor is full of broken glass, and what used to be the bedroom is in ruins. There's dust everywhere but above us blue skies where the roof used to be. Luckily, the old couple that lived here had already been evacuated from their home in Kibbutz Hanita when it took a direct hit from a rocket fired by Hizbullah. Their son, Erez, stayed behind and has been protecting the kibbutz. More than 9,000 rocket attacks have been detected in northern Israel since Oct. 8 last year. Erez, the kibbutz's security team commander, recalled how the 700 residents of Kibbutz Hanita were evacuated within a week of Oct. 7, including Erez's parents, his wife and three daughters, along with 60,000 other Israelis along the northern border. What used to be a lively community on Israel's border with Lebanon has, like dozens of other kibbutzim and villages, become a ghost town. These are the towns and villages Israel wants back for its people. Some 20 rockets have hit the kibbutz so far, but for every house they hit, another 10 are impacted by the blast, according to Erez. Last month, five Iranian-made suicide drones hit the kibbutz, all within five minutes. One of the drones landed in the kindergarten, starting a fire. I asked how much time we had to run for shelter if a siren went off. After all, Lebanon is just a few hundred meters from where we stood. "The siren and the explosion come at the same time. We don't have any time," he responded. (Telegraph-UK) Observations: The Battle Israel Faces Is about Upholding Civilization Itself - Allister Heath (Telegraph-UK)
The writer is editor of The Sunday Telegraph-UK. |
|