| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 |
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We wish our readers a Happy Simhat Torah holiday!
Daily Alert will not appear on Thursday, October 24 News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Israel gave the U.S. a document last week with its conditions for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Lebanon and allow displaced civilians from both sides of the border to return to their homes, U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios. One Israeli demand is that the IDF be allowed to engage in "active enforcement" to make sure Hizbullah doesn't rearm and rebuild its military infrastructure in the areas of southern Lebanon that are close to the border. Israel also demands its air force have freedom of operation in Lebanese air space. A U.S. official said it is highly unlikely Lebanon and the international community would agree to these conditions. (Axios) The Israeli military launched airstrikes on branches of the U.S.-sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hassan bank in Lebanon linked to Hizbullah. Israel says the bank is central to Hizbullah's economic functioning and is used to pay the salaries of Hizbullah operatives. The strikes took place on Sunday evening, when the bank branches were likely empty. "The purpose of the strike is to target the ability of Hizbullah to function both during the war but also afterwards to rebuild and to rearm the organization on the day after," a senior Israeli military official said. "The main objective is to affect the trust between Hizbullah and a lot of the Shiite community that uses this association as a banking system." (Wall Street Journal) See also IDF Reveals Hizbullah Cash Bunker beneath Beirut Hospital, Housing $500 Million - Gadi Zaig (Jerusalem Post) The U.S. has deployed its advanced THAAD anti-missile system to Israel, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed on Monday. President Joe Biden said the THAAD's deployment was meant to help defend Israel, which is weighing an expected retaliation against Iran after Tehran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel on Oct 1. (Reuters) American Jews are almost universally supportive of Israel (86%), while a mere 5% say they are not, according to a poll of 658 Jewish registered voters across the U.S. conducted on Oct. 5-9, 2024. 87% of Reform, 93% of Conservative, and 91% of Orthodox Jews support Israel, as well as 77% of those not identifying with a denomination. 83% of Democratic Jews, 86% of Independents, and 94% of Republicans support Israel. While they lean Democratic, Jewish voters are more likely to report high levels of concern over growing antisemitism in the Democratic Party than within the Republican Party. Many are likely uncomfortable with the Democratic Party's tolerance of voices that criticize Israel in extreme terms. Jewish voters support laws banning people from wearing masks with the intent to conceal their identity while congregating in a public place, like a public protest or encampment. (Manhattan Institute for Policy Research) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Hundreds of Gazan civilians were evacuated from Jabalya in northern Gaza on Monday after hundreds of terrorists had gathered there, turning the local population into human shields. Three weeks ago, the IDF encircled Jabalya to prevent senior field commanders from escaping. Since then, it has neutralized 300 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists in close-range engagements. IDF sources say its recent actions have the potential to secure large geographical areas in northern Gaza, dramatically diminishing Hamas's control. Hundreds of terrorists surrendered over the weekend. (Jerusalem Post) See also IDF Paramedic: Hamas Shooting Gazan Civilians Who Try to Evacuate Jabalya Civilians in Gaza are being shot by Hamas terrorists while trying to evacuate from Jabalya amid a renewed IDF offensive, an Israeli paramedic said Monday. Cpl. Shai Gilboa told Israel's Channel 12 that a photograph of her tending to an injured Palestinian woman was the result of Hamas's attempts to prevent civilians from heeding Israeli orders to evacuate to designated safe zones during the fighting. After terrorists in the area opened fire and wounded some of the Gazans who were trying to flee, "The wounded came to us and we provided them with first aid in the field, which mostly entailed stopping the bleeding," she said. While interactions tended to be limited due to the language barrier, "They smile at us, they wave goodbye at us, they curse Hamas in front of us. Not only are they not afraid of us, a lot of them are on our side." (Times of Israel) Col. Ehsan Daqsa, 41, from the Druze city of Daliyat al-Karmel, commander of the 401st Brigade, was killed on Sunday by an IED in Jabalya, in northern Gaza. Israeli President Isaac Herzog called Ehsan "a hero of Israel, a courageous, humble, and principled warrior - his fall is a loss to the State of Israel and all of Israeli society. I salute him and embrace his family, the community of Daliyat al-Karmel, and our brothers and sisters from the Druze community who have lost many dear sons since the beginning of the fighting, with dedication, a sense of mission, and a shared destiny." (Ynet News) Hizbullah operatives captured in southern Lebanon disclosed during interrogation that they paid off UNIFIL personnel to use their positions, Israeli security sources told Israel Hayom. Hizbullah also took control of UNIFIL cameras near the Israeli border and used them for their own purposes. In light of these revelations and UNIFIL's glaring failure to prevent Hizbullah's entrenchment along the border, Israel plans to rely primarily on commitments from the Lebanese army in any future arrangement with Lebanon, rather than on UNIFIL. (Israel Hayom) See also Former UN Peacekeeper: "We Were Completely at Hizbullah's Mercy" - Danielle Greyman-Kennard (Jerusalem Post) Seven eastern Jerusalem residents have been arrested for planning attacks in Israel, including the assassination of an Israeli nuclear scientist and a mayor. The leader of the ring, Rami Alian, 23, was recruited by an Iranian agent. Alian told investigators he was aware he was working for Iranians and wanted to harm national security, citing the war in Gaza. The cell was active for two years. They were given various missions for which they were paid thousands of shekels, including graffiti demanding the release of hostages in Gaza and vandalism in Jerusalem, and also tasked with photographing various locations. (Times of Israel) Seven Jewish Israelis of Azeri origin were arrested for espionage for Iran, Israel Police announced on Monday. They gathered intelligence on sensitive military and infrastructure sites and identified potential human targets for Iran. Police officials said the suspects were motivated purely by financial gain and were paid hundreds of thousands of shekels, with payments routed through Russian intermediaries who traveled to Israel. The group's leader received orders from a Turkish intermediary and directed the others. (Jerusalem Post) Security forces arrested a terrorist after he threw firebombs along with a burning tire at Migdal Oz in Judea, the IDF reported on Sunday. Security forces in the area responded swiftly, and the situation was quickly brought under control. This incident underscores the vigilance of local defense forces in protecting the community, particularly during a time of heightened security tensions in the Gush Etzion region and across Israel. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War The final moments of Yahya Sinwar's malevolent life are an allegory for the current balance of military power in Gaza. The once mighty terrorist leader was filmed skulking into a building in Rafah like the fugitive he was. Where were his layers of security, the bodyguards to whisk him away when danger loomed? All gone, shattered by Israel's assaults, with even Hamas's most senior terrorist forced above ground by the IDF's progressive destruction of his protective tunnels. Hamas's organized structure has been decimated and its military campaign reduced to small-scale guerrilla operations with the priority on survival rather than offensive action. Many of the senior terrorist commanders have been killed. In latter days Sinwar could no longer exercise meaningful control over his troops. He was the embodiment of Hamas's "resistance" against Israel, the architect of the greatest achievement the organization has ever had or is now likely to have. For the Hamas terrorists who have survived until now he has been an inspiration and an example. His death, therefore, will be a major psychological blow which in some will undermine the will to continue the fight. Plenty of terrorists, however, will remain defiant, galvanized to fight on. The end of Sinwar is not the end of Hamas. He will be replaced like other terrorist leaders, but with its terror army badly weakened. U.S. demands that Israel stop fighting rather than calling for Hamas's surrender give hope and strength to the terrorists, and to their Iranian masters, and help prolong the bloodshed. Instead, with Hamas reeling, now is the time to intensify the fight and drive home the advantage. Netanyahu's policy of attrition against the terror armies while eliminating their leadership, whether in Gaza, Lebanon or Iran, is certainly working. What would not work in any of these places is the Western obsession with ceasefires, peace deals and de-escalation. Against jihadist enemies, all such appeasement of those dedicated to your annihilation can at best only store up the same threat for another day, or an even greater one. Optimism is not a strategy. The writer, a former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, was chairman of the UK's national crisis management committee, COBRA. (Telegraph-UK) Senior Biden administration officials are concerned that despite the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the likelihood of reaching a ceasefire in Gaza and securing the release of hostages remains low. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Israel on Tuesday to push forward plans for a ceasefire, hostage release and an alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza. However, according to a senior Israeli official, the U.S. administration's public statements do not reflect the reality on the ground. "There are currently no serious ceasefire talks, and Blinken is fully aware of this," said a senior Israeli official, describing Blinken's visit as a "desperate diplomatic attempt" ahead of a possible Israeli strike on Iran. (Ha'aretz) For months, Israel's number one target, Yahya Sinwar, architect of the Oct. 7 attacks last year, remained elusive, a ghost in the subterranean darkness of the tunnels beneath Gaza. Israel's military closed in on Hamas's underground labyrinth, destroying strategic tunnel complexes. This tactic forced Sinwar to surface. With ever-fewer places to hide, he spent more time above ground in the Tel al-Sultan area of Rafah in southern Gaza. (Wall Street Journal) The Biden administration is once again threatening to hold its support for Israel's defensive operations against Iran's terrorist proxies hostage unless certain conditions are met. Israel would surely like to comply with the administration's demands, but, from Jerusalem's perspective, it already has. In an Oct. 13 letter to the Israeli government, the U.S. accused Israel of cutting off humanitarian aid to parts of Gaza. Israel must "reverse the downward humanitarian trajectory" within 30 days of the letter or there will be "implications" for the future disbursement of U.S. ordnance and financial aid. "Israel has not halted the entry or coordination of humanitarian aid," the IDF said. UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq said, "The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, and its partners are distributing bread, meals and flour to designated shelters and beyond." Israeli officials don't dispute the claim that aid deliveries have been truncated as a result of the fighting in the area. What is in dispute is the relative risk of hunger in those areas. If the Biden administration hopes to see its Israeli partners emerge from a speedy war against Hamas victorious, it's doing everything in its power to thwart that objective by impugning its ally's actions and motives. (National Review) Israel's account might be settled with Sinwar - the debt paid - but the story is far from over. The war is far from over. Netanyahu wants to secure Israel's safety for a generation. Former Netanyahu election adviser Nadav Shtrauchler told Politico: The mission is far from accomplished. Shtrauchler said, "Now there's a much bigger picture - Iran. After eliminating Nasrallah, and eliminating Sinwar, [Netanyahu] is aiming for the big goal....He's looking for Iran right now, and there's still that debt to pay." And the road to humbling Tehran runs through Lebanon. Even die-hard Netanyahu critics don't take issue with taking the fight to Hizbullah. Ya'akov Peri, a former Israel Security Agency chief and Netanyahu critic, said Netanyahu had no choice but to launch the Lebanon campaign. "Hizbullah had everything ready to pull off the same kind of action as Oct. 7. I cannot say that I'm against the Lebanon incursion. It is a necessity. We understand that the world doesn't like it.... But we haven't got a choice. If we want to stay alive in Israel, we have to." (Politico Europe) In the information war, there is a usual pattern. A newsworthy event happens. There is a coordinated "influencer" messaging push, supported by bot/fake account swarms, to try and dominate the narrative and give the worst possible spin towards Israel. Al Jazeera and other hostile state media amplify the narrative. Mainstream media then run the story as true. A key narrative is Sinwar died a hero fighting on the frontline. This is nonsense. Sinwar was forced out of one tunnel and died trying to get to another. The IDF disrupted the tunnel system to force him above ground, then closed a noose around him. He ran into the cordon and died wounded and defeated. In a video prior to his death, I see a wounded and beaten man throwing a stick in frustration, knowing the immediate inevitability of his own death at the hands of the hated Yahud. Quite some distance from heroism. There is an argument that the IDF should not have released these images and videos as it gives fuel to the "hero" narrative. I disagree. Sinwar's death was always going to lead to his lionization as a martyr, and at least having the videos shows the lie to the myth. My prediction is that the social media storm will have little impact on IDF operations. Israel has made it very clear that they are fighting to the finish, world opinion be damned. The writer, who served in the British Army from 2005-21, is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. (Substack) Israeli Security Some critics claim that Israel can't destroy Hamas. You can't kill an ideology, they say. Israel has pulverized Hamas's underground rat-maze, dismantled or hobbled its battalions, killed thousands of its fighters, choked off its smuggling routes, and taken out its leaders, including Sinwar. Does this constitute Israeli victory? No, not yet. There's more fighting ahead. But it's what winning looks like. And it's how you destroy the enemy. It also means that Hamas's remnants might find themselves without the Iranian funds they'd have used to try to reconstitute the organization in the future. The mullahs can't be happy looking at the present state of Hamas (and increasingly of Hizbullah). Iran's return on its investment in proxy armies is vanishing fast. The list of senior Hamas members killed by Israel is growing longer by the day. The same applies to the senior ranks of Hizbullah. Do Hamas's supporters in the U.S. still think they're on the winning side against Israel? (Commentary) Bombarded by missiles from its foes and advice from its friends, Israel has learned to stand firm against both. Well-meaning advice is easy to promulgate from the safety of the U.S., the UK, and the capitals of Europe. But humane and virtuous calls to "react proportionately," "negotiate a ceasefire," and "stop firing in civilian areas" put Israel in the dock in the eyes of the world. Purveyors of well-intentioned advice to Israel seem to ignore the oft-stated intention of Iran and its satellites in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq to eliminate the Jewish state and its people. Israel's friends often appear to discount the fact that the nation has been fighting for its very existence from the moment it was established and that the fight is far from won. Who is better able to assess Israel's best interests - well-meaning friends or Israel itself? They either fail to appreciate or simply do not believe that Iran has the West and its democratic way of life in its sights just as much as Israel and that by battling the Iranian octopus, Israel is fighting for the West as much as for its own continued existence. The writer is Middle East correspondent for the Eurasia Review. (Jerusalem Post) IDF Military Intelligence has observed how hundreds of Hizbullah operatives near the border are operating in small cells, alongside anti-tank, rocket and mortar fire. It is keeping most of its tens of thousands of armed operatives in areas safe from a ground invasion in southern and central Lebanon, conserving its forces and capabilities for a protracted war. A new IDF operational intelligence tool is being used for the first time in Lebanon - FIU (Field Intelligence Units), which focuses on real-time, hourly intelligence tracking, targeting terror cells and organizations to support the forces on the ground. The FIUs, manned mostly by reservists, are stationed in Israel but maintain an open line with commanders at the front. They receive round-the-clock information from thousands of IDF sensors, rapidly process this information using advanced technologies and intelligence analysts, and quickly generate alerts for the troops on the ground. The FIUs have led to the daily elimination of dozens of Hizbullah operatives, mainly through airstrikes. "We can now identify an ambush against an IDF force in southern Lebanon, which includes an anti-tank cell preparing to fire from 5 km. away, followed by a barrage of rockets being set up 12 km. away and possibly even an explosive they'll try to detonate remotely," military sources explained. (Ynet News) Hizbullah The elimination of Hizbullah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is affecting the Lebanese body politic. Muslim, Druze and Christian parties are seeking an immediate ceasefire, the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and the deployment of the Lebanese army to the south of Lebanon (replacing Hizbullah's presence in the area). In response, Iran intervened by dispatching to Beirut its foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who conducted stormy conversations with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Nabih Berri, head of the Shiite Amal movement, that Druze leader Walid Jumblatt qualified as humiliating. Iran has imposed its political will on Lebanon, forced the Lebanese body politic to retreat, and signified to all parties that it solely retained the political decisions in Lebanon and that everything must be in accordance with its interests. Iran nominated a high-ranking Iranian officer to run the collective leadership of Hizbullah, while its military advisers conduct military operations against Israel in the absence of a field leadership almost annihilated by Israel. At the same time, Hizbullah has lost some of its positions of strength in Lebanon. The international Rafiq Hariri Airport in Lebanon and Beirut Port, which were run solely by Hizbullah, have been transferred to the control of the Lebanese army. The writer, a special analyst at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence. (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs) Houthis in Yemen On Oct. 19, the Navy destroyer Carney became the first American warship to take out a barrage of Iran-backed Houthi rebel missiles and drones fired from Yemen. Such intercepts have since become a harrowing, near-daily occurrence for destroyers in those waters. On that day, Carney took out a Houthi attack the Pentagon later said was headed for Israel, downing 15 drones and four land-attack cruise missiles over 10 hours. Since then, the Red Sea has become the arena for the longest sustained "direct and deliberate attacks at sea" that the fleet has faced since World War II, Fleet Forces Command head Adm. Daryl Caudle said. Since Carney's first victory, the surface fleet has honed its tactics and tuned its radars for such a fight, instances when a ship's Combat Information Center sometimes has mere seconds to ascertain and take out a Houthi attack. Skippers also report that their crews have been galvanized by such experiences, finding meaning in the life-and-death minutes they endure in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. "This really gave our sailors the why," said Cmdr. Jeremy Robertson, the ship's commanding officer for that cruise. While tactical battles have been won, strategic wars have not, according to James Holmes, a retired Navy gunnery officer and professor of maritime strategy at the Naval War College. "The tacticians have done their work magnificently...and the combination of sensors, fire control and weaponry has performed as advertised against an array of threats similar to what [Iran, Russia and China] field," said Holmes. "Bringing down anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles is no easy feat, but they have done it." Yet the Navy has been unable to stop the Houthis from attacking merchant vessels traveling through the vital Red Sea. "The mission has fallen short of its strategic goal, namely allowing merchant shipping through the Gulf of Aden, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Red Sea to resume unmolested. We can flip strategic failure to success when shipping firms - and the all-important maritime insurance companies - feel comfortable enough to start using that route again." (Military Times) Other Issues The contrast between good and evil and between justice and injustice are fundamental themes throughout the Hebrew Bible as well as in the wider Western canon. However, in the postmodern 21st century, this fundamental moral framework has been abandoned and rejected, as reflected in the cliche: "One man's (or woman's) terrorist is another's freedom fighter." Those who, in past centuries, would have been tried, jailed, and cast out of society as evildoers - such as murderers and rapists - are now relieved of responsibility for their actions and recast as victims of circumstances or society, and thus not responsible for their deeds. In the realms of war and peace, the distinction between aggressors (bad) and defenders (good) has been replaced with an ideological litmus test that instead divides the world between ostensible "colonizers" (bad) and victims of colonization, who are automatically good. Regardless of the massive destruction and atrocities that the so-called victims commit, they are treated like children, and cannot be held morally accountable for their actions. In this false morality and reversal of good and evil, the Jewish people and Israel are absurdly relegated to the category of Western colonizers, and Palestinian Arabs are the unquestioned victims who cannot be held accountable for their actions. When four presidents of prominent universities recently told a U.S. congressional committee that categorizing the mob attacks and intimidation targeting Jews as acts of hatred and antisemitism "depended on the context," they were repeating the postmodern blindness to the essential difference between good and evil and between justice and injustice. These distinctions are essential to a moral human society. The writer is founder and president of NGO Monitor and professor emeritus of politics at Bar-Ilan University. (Jerusalem Post) UNRWA (UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East) poses an existential threat to the State of Israel. It was created to undermine Israel's legitimacy and continues to perpetuate the fictional "right of return" for people who had little to no connection to the region to begin with, and most of whom have been living elsewhere for 76 years. This attempt to stop history is the reason Israel is the only country on the planet whose right to defend itself is questioned. The Oct. 7 massacre was carried out not only by graduates of the UNRWA education system but also by members of its staff. UNRWA officials have shown no remorse for their schools being used to harbor weapons and terror tunnels. If we were inclined to entrust UNRWA once more with the task of education, it would be concrete evidence that we had learned nothing at all. UNRWA's continued existence has become a threat to Western values. UNRWA's net contribution to its "clients" is a negative one. It has kept five generations trapped as eternal refugees, teaching them nothing but hatred and despair. Asking "What will replace UNRWA?" is a fallacy. It assumes a need that is not in evidence, and that exists nowhere else in the world. The writer is a strategic policy adviser and former senior political intelligence analyst at the Israel Foreign Ministry. (Jerusalem Post) Observations: What Yayha Sinwar's Death Revealed about Hamas's Waning Capabilities - John Spencer (Newsweek)
The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. |
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