| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Hizbullah launched 250 rockets and other munitions at Israel on Monday in repeated barrages. Most were intercepted by Israel's antimissile defense system, and there were no reports of deaths or serious casualties. The Israeli military said on social media that "over a million Israeli civilians are running to bomb shelters in Haifa as Hizbullah indiscriminately fires rockets." Israeli fighter jets bombed Hizbullah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon, in what Lebanese officials said were the deadliest attacks since the 2006 Israel-Hizbullah war. Lebanon's health ministry said the bombardment had killed 492 people and injured more than 1,600, but did not say how many of the dead were Hizbullah fighters. Israeli leaders said they were intensifying their attacks on Hizbullah to stop it from firing into northern Israel, which it began doing on Oct. 8. (New York Times) See also Israel Says "Large Number" of Hizbullah Forces Killed in Airstrikes Israel's military said a large number of Hizbullah forces were killed in airstrikes in Lebanon on Monday. "Among those killed were a large number of Hizbullah terrorists who were next to the weapons that we targeted," military spokesman Daniel Hagari said, adding that "secondary explosions" of weapons stores were responsible for some of the casualties. (AFP) Israeli President Isaac Herzog told "Face the Nation" on Sep. 22, 2024: "When you're dealing with terror organizations, they don't really give a damn about international affairs. They take hostages, or they fire as much as they want. They get instructions from Tehran, they send Houthi terrorists to block the high seas, and the cost of living in the world goes up. This is the culture of terror, and it's a terror of jihadists, meaning they don't give a damn about anything." "We agree, time and again, to go into rounds of talks. We support and welcome the efforts by the United States of America and the administration. Truly. We respect it tremendously. But at the end of it, [American envoy Amos] Hochstein leaves Israel, and they keep on firing and firing, and that cannot go on forever, because our citizens must go back home....We don't want war, but if it's waged against us, we go all the way." "This morning, they launched a barrage of attacks on Israeli cities, towns and villages all over the northern part of Israel....Why would any decent nation accept it? We're almost a year in such a situation of a kind of vicious cycle. We want to get out of this vicious cycle. And if we have no choice, then we are getting ready for escalation." (CBS News) See also Israeli President: Slain Hizbullah Commanders Were Planning Oct. 7-Style Attack on Northern Israel - Elisha Ben Kimon The Hizbullah commanders killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday were meeting to plan an attack akin to the Oct. 7 assault by Hamas, Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Sky News in an interview on Sunday. "All of these leaders were meeting together in order to launch the same horrific, horrendous attack that we had on October 7 by Hamas - by burning Israelis, butchering them, raping their women, abducting and taking hostage old people and young, and little babies - so this is exactly the same plan that they've been planning for years under the empire of evil of Iran. So we are fighting, actually, the war for the entire Free World." (Ynet News) After 11 months of rocket fire and failed ceasefire talks, many of the Israelis who were evacuated from communities on the border with Lebanon - and some who defied orders and stayed - say they back another war with Hizbullah. "I think the Israeli army until now has been too patient," said schoolteacher Shelly Liss Barkan, 60, who stayed in Shlomi. (Washington Post) Jews were targeted in 1,832 hate crimes in 2023, far more than any other religious group and a 63% increase over 2022, according to FBI data released Monday. Jews were targeted in 68% of all hate crimes motivated by religion. Muslims were targeted in 236 incidents. There were 2,002 total offenses against Jews, including 1,000 cases of vandalism, 700 of intimidation, 112 cases of assault and 62 of aggravated assault. There were seven cases of antisemitic arson. (JTA) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
The Israel Defense Forces launched a broad offensive targeting Hizbullah's weapons arsenal, IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari announced Monday. Throughout the day, Israeli fighter jets and drones targeted 1,300 Hizbullah sites in Lebanon. Hagari shared an image of a missile stored on the roof of a family home in southern Lebanon. "This missile is ready to be launched from an opening in the roof. Below the attic lives a Lebanese family, used as human shields," he said. Hagari also presented footage of an airstrike on a house in Lebanon, showing secondary explosions from missiles. (Ynet News) See also Israel: Tens of Thousands of Hizbullah Rockets Destroyed - Yonah Jeremy Bob Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday night that the IDF has in recent days destroyed tens of thousands of Hizbullah rockets. (Jerusalem Post) Thousands of residents in southern Lebanon were seen fleeing toward Beirut and northern regions on Monday following an unusual warning from the IDF Spokesperson urging residents to distance themselves from Hizbullah weaponry. Social media was flooded with images and videos of the exodus from southern Lebanon. On Monday afternoon, the IDF issued another targeted warning, to residents of the Bekaa Valley. IDF Arabic Spokesperson Lt.-Col. Avichay Adraee said, "The IDF does not want to harm you. If you are in or near a building containing Hizbullah weapons, you must leave and move at least 1,000 meters outside the village or go to the nearest central school and not return until further notice. Anyone who remains near Hizbullah members, their facilities, and weapons is endangering their own lives and those of their families." (Ynet News) The UN Security Council must act to ensure that the Iranian proxy Hizbullah pulls out of southern Lebanon, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a letter to the council on Monday. "Even before October 8, Israel repeatedly warned the Security Council and UNIFIL about Hizbullah's increasing military entrenchment on both sides of the Litani River. Now, this council must bring about a full implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701 and guarantee that there are no armed personnel, assets, and weapons between the Blue Line and the Litani River, other than those of the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL." Resolution 1701 set out the ceasefire terms that ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006. That resolution mandates that no armed actor, such as Hizbullah, is allowed to operate between the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Litani River. (Jerusalem Post) On Sunday, the Prime Minister's Office said the IDF was instructed to present to the government plans to take control of the distribution of humanitarian aid. Giora Eiland, former head of Israel's National Security Council, said that as long as Hamas has control of the aid, it provides for its forces and markets the remaining supplies, ensuring a steady flow of cash and its continued civilian rule. (Ynet News) Jerusalem Police arrested a prominent Hamas operative in the Shu'afat neighborhood who is involved in laundering money for and financing terrorist organizations. He is suspected of transferring funds through his personal businesses, including a chain of supermarkets. Five Hamas operatives were arrested. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Hizbullah After many months on defense, the IDF recently went on the attack against Hizbullah after Israel's political echelon directed the Israel Defense Forces to return the residents of the north to their homes. The IDF strategy is a war in targeted moves. The IDF attacks powerfully in places where it has not attacked before and at different ranges, increases targeted countermeasures and special attacks, and re-examines the intelligence picture at each level to achieve its objectives. Jerusalem understands that the actions of the last few days could lead to a real escalation on the northern border, but they understand that this is the only way to bring Hizbullah to a crossroads, where it must decide whether to continue with attacks or come to a settlement with Israel. As IDF Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Herzi Halevi said Sunday: "Hizbullah will receive a blow and another blow until it understands." In Israel they believe it is possible that the expansion of the offensive operation will cause Hizbullah to stop because it has no desire for an all-out war. The IDF is operating in steps, a controlled escalation with the goal of making Hizbullah reconsider its continued actions. The IDF is working to eliminate as many of the terror group's capabilities as possible, with the understanding that such an operational opportunity, if it returns, will only be in a few years. The Americans support Israel's actions to erode Hizbullah's capabilities and are not sorry about the targeting of Ibrahim Aqil, who was also wanted in the U.S., but they have asked Israel to act carefully so as not to exacerbate the escalation beyond what is necessary. (Ynet News) Many in the West denounced the pager attacks on Hizbullah because they don't believe in Israel's right to defend itself against terrorists and because they no longer believe that any Western nation has the right to fight even the most just wars. The claim that this was an Israeli "escalation" is entirely untrue since it is Hizbullah that initiated the current round of strife. There is no other example that I am aware of where such a mass-targeted killing of terrorists was so clearly crafted to avoid civilian casualties. In the past year, Israel has often been falsely accused of making no effort to spare civilians, even though they do more than any nation in that respect. Unnecessary and aggressive wars are unjust. But those waged to defend against murderous regimes are just. A war waged to defend a nation's existence is fully defensible and should be supported by anyone with a set of moral values. The issue is whether it's ever right for Israelis or any citizen of a Western country to defend themselves against murderers with blood on their hands. Ethical people understand that there is only one answer to that question. (JNS) For too long, Israel has been on the receiving end of Hizbullah aggression, with rockets launched indiscriminately at our towns. Now, the moment has come for Israel to defend itself without apology. Imagine if Mexico took over parts of California or launched missiles into Texas - would the U.S. react any differently? No sovereign nation can stand idle while its citizens are targeted. As a nation, we are standing up for our right to live in peace, free from the shadow of terror. This conflict is not about mere retaliation; it's about survival. Hizbullah has spent years stockpiling weapons with the express intent of using them against us. But this is our home, and we will protect it with all our might. Israel will prevail because it must. Our only option is to fight for our survival. (Jerusalem Post) This was a war that both sides had hoped to avoid. The Biden administration has been trying to find an exit ramp for 11 months. But the hard logic of war proved stronger than the soft logic of peace. Hizbullah wouldn't stop firing rockets; Israel wouldn't stop retaliating - and the U.S. couldn't stop them. I'm a journalist, but that doesn't mean I don't have opinions. I think Hamas rule has been a tragedy for Palestinians in Gaza and an intolerable menace for Israel. I think Hizbullah is a terrorist group that kidnapped Lebanon and has the blood of hundreds of Americans on its hands. I visited the U.S. Embassy in Beirut on April 18, 1983, and left about half an hour before a terrorist car bomb demolished the building. Most years since then, I exchange messages with the embassy official who escorted me to the elevator that day. She emailed me last week, after an Israeli airstrike killed Ibrahim Aqil, one of the Iran-backed terrorists who plotted the embassy bombing that day. Suffice to say, she doesn't grieve for Aqil's loss. (Washington Post) The world community would do well to grasp a fundamental truth: the messy Israeli-Palestinian conflict should not be conflated with the threat posed by Iran and its jihadist proxies, where Israel is totally in the right as the party that is under attack. Hizbullah's Iran-driven aggression is the marquee element of an unrelenting effort to expand Iranian influence through violence, terror, and a bizarrely effective Islamist gaslighting campaign. Hizbullah's attacks on Israel are not about land or freedom, even if they have invented a handful of trivial border demarcation disputes in order to bamboozle the gullible. This is not a fight for justice or self-determination but an orchestrated campaign of aggression. Ignoring the threat posed by Hizbullah and Iran is not a viable option. Iran's ambitions in the region are clear, and its pursuit of nuclear weapons is a ticking time bomb that the world cannot afford to ignore. Allowing this to be Israel's problem alone is a terrible mistake. The writer is former chief editor of the Associated Press in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. (Substack) Two years ago, Mahsa Amini, 22, an Iranian Kurdish woman, was beaten to death in custody after being arrested for allegedly violating the Iranian regime's strict dress code. Outrage exploded across Iran as millions of women and their male supporters poured into the streets in the largest and most sustained protests ever in the Islamic Republic. Because the regime worried that some of their own security forces would not fire indiscriminately on Iranian schoolgirls, they allegedly imported Lebanese Hizbullah to do their dirty work and reinforce Iran's mechanism of repression. Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, a post that a Quds Force general always fills, is now blind in one eye after the systematic explosion of Hizbullah pagers on Sep. 17. Ordinary Iranians look at a Hizbullah member blinded in one eye as a job half done, and a Hizbullah member completely blind as appropriate vengeance for what the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies did to them. The writer, a former Pentagon official, is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. (National Security Journal) In Syria, there are many who are glad to see the repeated blows that Hizbullah has received in recent days. Many Syrians, especially the Sunni population, have not forgotten Hizbullah's brutal role in their country's civil war, where it indiscriminately slaughtered their friends and families. Hizbullah is blamed for numerous atrocities during the conflict. The joy on Syria's social media has been unmistakable. When Hizbullah released the names of senior Radwan Force commanders killed in Beirut, Syrians were quick to react to the announced death of Hussein Ali Ghandour. Ghandour was known as the "Butcher of Madaya" in Syria - responsible for starving Syrians and burying them alive. (Ynet News) Hizbullah: The Pager Sabotage The timing of the Hizbullah beeper and other device explosions last week, which wounded around 3,000-4,000 operatives, was not due to the sabotage being exposed but was carefully planned, the Jerusalem Post has learned. Foreign reports said that Israeli intelligence rushed to Prime Minister Netanyahu to warn that Hizbullah operatives had uncovered aspects of the sabotage and that the device explosion capability was at a "use it or lose it" moment. But the Post has learned that whoever caused the sabotage picked the timing carefully and not because of some sudden discovery by Hizbullah. It is noteworthy that in the days leading up to the explosions, both Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made public statements about how returning Israel's northern residents to their homes became one of the primary missions of the current war. This came after Gallant declared Hamas's last of 24 battalions in Rafah defeated on Aug. 21. Without beepers and cell phones to communicate, Hizbullah Radwan special forces commander Ibrahim Aqil and 20 of his top sub-commanders needed to meet in person to develop retaliation plans. When they did on Friday, the IDF killed Aqil and most of the other critical sub-commanders. (Jerusalem Post) Hizbullah is a jihadist terrorist organization and a standing army that is funded, supplied by, and serves the Islamic Republic of Iran. Like Hamas, Hizbullah also has genocidal intentions to annihilate Israel and kill all the Jews. Since Oct. 8, 2023, Hizbullah has fired more than 8,500 rockets at Israel, each an unquestionable war crime, murdering 47 people, including 12 children who were struck while playing soccer. By any stretch of the imagination, Israel is fully entitled under international law to exercise its right to self-defense. Article 52 of the Additional Protocols to the Geneva Convention I, says that acts such as the use of booby traps in communication devices are permissible in circumstances where the objects in question are no longer used for civilian purposes. The pagers and hand-held devices which were distributed specifically to Hizbullah operatives were being used for the purposes of communicating, planning and conducting military operations. As such, they became legitimate military targets. Moreover, only Hizbullah operatives were known to be in possession of these devices, which were not widely or generally available. (Newsweek) There is a psychological asymmetry in fighting an Islamist opponent, which works against the stronger party. If Hizbullah survives, it can claim victory. And, just as for Hamas - its ideological twin in Gaza, sacrificing the lives of its people does not deter Hizbullah from continuing the fight. So how will psychological pressure work against those whose value system is such that conventional losses are computed on a scale different from what Western culture is used to? In an Islamist world, a belief system that stands against reality provides the fuel to continue. Unless the cost-benefit ratio of adhering to that ideology changes, Hizbullah will continue to fight and attack as long as it can - however it can. Yet, unlike Hamas in Gaza, Hizbullah faces real opposition within Lebanon. Alienating the non-Shiite population of Lebanon is not a Hizbullah interest. For an organization whose motivation stems from an unwavering ideology, conventional reality testing does not come easy, but history has taught that it nevertheless sets limits to its losses. We don't know what Hizbullah's breaking point will be, but Israel must continue to take steps that deepen the psychological effect on Lebanon. The writer is a senior fellow and analyst in political psychology at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and a member of the Emergency Division of the IDF Home Front Command. (Jerusalem Post) The Gaza War Gazans are being deradicalized. Recent polling suggests that the war is teaching Gazans that terrorism is both futile and costly. According to the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll in September, satisfaction with Hamas has declined to 39% in Gaza, and satisfaction with Sinwar to 29%. Only 39% of Gazans think perpetrating the Oct. 7 massacres was a "correct" decision. Two other local polling services, Arab World for Research and Development and the Institute for Social and Economic Progress, put Gazan support for Hamas's postwar governance at single digits early in the summer. Gazans are learning that Hamas is a losing cause, because the group is no match for the Israel Defense Forces. Most Gazans have been out of their homes for months. (Wall Street Journal) The London Times' Middle East Editor Richard Spencer describes Israel's military campaign against Hamas in Gaza as floundering. The opposite is the reality. In almost a year of fighting on the most complex battlefield in the history of war, the Israel Defense Forces has taken Hamas apart to the extent it no longer presents a serious threat to the Israeli population. I have met hundreds of Israeli soldiers and commanders in headquarters as well as inside Gaza and on the border with Lebanon as recently as last week. Everywhere morale was high and conviction in the fight absolute. There exists a unity I have never before witnessed between the most seasoned generals and the teenagers on the battlefront. The writer, a former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, was chairman of the UK's national crisis management committee, COBRA. (JNS) Other Issues President Biden's emissaries continue to urge all parties to calm down and dial back the violence. No one is listening. Biden tried and failed to get Iran back into a nuclear agreement with the U.S. He tried and failed to get a new Israeli-Palestinian dialogue on track. He tried to settle the war in Yemen through diplomacy, and when that failed and the Houthis began attacking shipping in the Red Sea, he sought a diplomatic solution to that problem too and failed again. For nearly a year, Team Biden has given its all to the diplomatic effort to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Repeatedly, administration officials have hailed progress toward an agreement. But senior officials are conceding privately that the chances of a ceasefire deal during Biden's remaining months in office are slim. U.S. diplomacy is aimed at preserving a regional order that depends on the kind of American power projection the president desperately wants to avoid. The metastasizing conflicts across the Middle East are the natural and inevitable consequence of Biden's own policies. As America withdraws, or attempts to withdraw, from the region, its influence diminishes. The less reliable America looks, the less value anyone attaches to promises of American support. The more obviously America looks toward the exits, the less anyone fears American power. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College. (Wall Street Journal) On Sep. 18, the UN General Assembly voted to hand the Old City of Jerusalem, home to Judaism's holiest sites, to the "State of Palestine." This resolution would return the Old City, including the Western Wall, to its pre-1967 status, when Jordan had conquered it and Jews were not allowed in it. Moreover, all countries are asked to boycott Israel diplomatically and economically. The vote was 124 yes, 14 no, and 43 abstentions. Israel and the U.S. voted no. What of all the nice, decent, democratic U.S. allies? Many abstained, including Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany, India, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the UK. They understood that this was a completely one-sided, unfair, and unrealistic resolution but nevertheless lacked the guts to vote no. Far worse were those Western democracies who actually voted for the resolution. They include Belgium, France, Ireland, Japan, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, and Spain. They voted to remove Jews from the Old City. They have indulged a great expression of antisemitism, and agreed to apply to Israel standards of conduct that are applied to no other nation. They voted yes on a resolution that does not mention Hamas, Palestinian terrorism, or the Israeli hostages. The writer, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as deputy national security advisor, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House. (Council on Foreign Relations) Israel's astounding feat in killing or disabling thousands of senior Hizbullah operatives by causing their pagers and walkie-talkies to explode has sent its Western enemies into a frenzy. In fact, never in the history of warfare has there been a more precisely targeted attack against enemy combatants. Those accusing Israel of recklessly endangering civilians and escalating the war fail to acknowledge the difference between deliberately aiming to kill civilians and inadvertently causing civilian casualties in a just war of defense. This is a seismic battle of civilization against barbarism, victim against oppressor, truth against lies. Lonely Israel is leading the great fight of good against evil, while the so-called civilized world no longer knows what side it's on. The writer is a columnist for The Times-UK. (JNS) Those who condition their support for Israel on the conclusion of a ceasefire in Gaza and the establishment of Palestinian statehood risk reducing that support to meaningless. Moreover, some imply that, if Israel cannot defeat terrorists without causing large numbers of civilian casualties, it must be defenseless. Since no one in Washington or elsewhere in the world can prescribe how an enemy that hides behind and beneath millions of civilians can be fought without causing collateral damage, this view effectively neuters the IDF. The writer is a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. and Deputy Minister for Diplomacy. (Substack) Observations: Why War in Lebanon Is Inevitable - Robert Nicholson (Providence)
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