| DAILY ALERT |
Sunday, October 27, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Israel carried out a wave of "precise strikes" against military targets in Iran early Saturday local time. The attacks were limited to military assets. An Israeli official had said the attacks would not hit Iran's oil production or nuclear facilities. A senior administration official said, "The president and his national security team of course worked with the Israelis over recent weeks to encourage Israel to conduct a response that was targeted and proportional with low risk of civilian harm. And that appears to have been precisely what transpired." National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett described Israel's launches against Iran "as an exercise of self-defense" in retaliation for a barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Israel on Oct. 1. (Washington Post) See also Israeli Strikes Target Bottlenecks in Iran's Arms Production - Adam Taylor Analysts say Israel's calibrated strikes on Tehran's weapons supply chains could cause significant problems for Tehran. There are "incredibly narrow bottlenecks" for production of missiles and drones in Iran, said Fabian Hinz, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Berlin. "If you target something like that, you cause potentially major disruption, even if it won't produce a fancy YouTube video." Hinz and other analysts have pointed to a plant that produces motors for Iran's more modern solid-fuel missiles in Parchin, that appeared to have sustained damage. (Washington Post) Israel struck military bases in the provinces of Tehran, Ilam and Khuzestan, according to Iran's national air defense. Iranian officials said one site targeted was the S-300 air defense of Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran. In Tehran Province, at least three Revolutionary Guards missile bases were attacked, Iranian officials said. In a second round of Israeli strikes, Israeli drones targeted the secretive Parchin military base in the outskirts of Tehran. (New York Times) See also How the Israeli Attack on Iran Unfolded - Ronen Bergman More than 100 combat aircraft, including fighter jets and unmanned drones, took off from Israel early Saturday. To prevent interceptions by Iran's allies, jets first targeted air defense batteries and radars in Syria and Iraq. In Iran, more than 1,000 miles away from Israel, Israeli jets first struck air defense systems. A second wave of jets targeted Iran's long-range missile production sites, and was specifically aimed at destroying a critical component in the production process. Israel targeted 20 sites over the course of the attack. (New York Times) After reviewing satellite imagery, David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector, and Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at CNA, a Washington think tank, said Israel's attack in Iran struck buildings in Parchin, a massive military complex, and Khojir, a missile production site near Tehran that was undergoing massive expansion. Albright said Israel hit a building in Parchin called Taleghan 2 that was used for testing activities in Iran's nuclear weapons development program. Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security research group, who was given access to the nuclear files stolen from Tehran by Israel's Mossad in 2018, said Iran kept important test equipment in Taleghan 2. (Reuters) An AP photographer captured the moment a missile launched from an Israeli jet hit a building in southern Beirut on Tuesday. The airstrike came 40 minutes after Israel warned people to evacuate two buildings in the area that were near Hizbullah warehouses and assets. Minutes before the strike brought down the building, there were two smaller strikes on it, in what Israel's military often refers to as a "knock on the roof" warning strike, according to AP journalists at the scene. Using a "smart" bomb with an advanced guidance system and a delayed action fuse explains why the destruction was limited almost entirely to the targeted building. People standing a few hundred meters away felt little to nothing from the blast and didn't see much fragmentation. (AP) On Sep. 4, 2024, Mark Dion, mayor of Portland, Maine, expressed full support for his city council's successful resolution to divest from companies linked to Israel. Now the mayor is taking it all back. "Upon personal reflection and following many private conversations I have had with our Jewish neighbors, I have come to the conclusion that my vote on the divestment was wrong," Dion told the council on Monday. He added that a local government has no business engaging in international matters. "I had not only failed to stay in my lane, but I went totally off the road." He called his stance "pretentious," "a serious mistake in judgment" and "a betrayal to the trust that Jewish people should expect from the mayor's office," and offered a "sincere apology" for his vote. Weeks after the resolution's passage, Portland council members said the city does not have any funds invested in the companies on its divestment target list and that "no divestment is expected to occur" as a result of the resolution. (JTA) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
37 people were wounded, 5 seriously, in a truck ramming attack in Glilot, north of Tel Aviv, on Sunday. Many of the injured were senior citizens who had disembarked from a bus ahead of a visit to a nearby museum. The truck driver was shot and neutralized. (Times of Israel) Hassan Sawaed, 21, and Arjwan Manna, 35, were killed by rocket shrapnel following a Hizbullah rocket barrage on the Galilee town of Majd al-Krum on Friday. Seven more people were wounded. (Ynet News) Two long-range rockets launched at Israel from Lebanon were intercepted by IDF air defenses over Tel Aviv on Wednesday. (Times of Israel) Iran and Hizbullah's assassination attempt on him in Caesarea on Oct. 19 "is an issue of dramatic significance that cannot be ignored," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Jerusalem on Tuesday. The two men discussed Israel's expected retaliatory strike against Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in his meeting with Blinken, emphasized that "Israel will continue striking Hizbullah's infrastructure even once the targeted operations are complete, and that this will continue systematically until it is possible to ensure the safe return of Israel's northern communities to their homes, and the withdrawal of Hizbullah forces from southern Lebanon." (Jerusalem Post) See also Israel Confirms Hizbullah Drone Hit Netanyahu's Caesarea Residence The Israel Security Agency confirmed Tuesday that a Hizbullah drone struck the residence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Caesarea on Oct. 19. The prime minister and his wife were not present during the incident. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran Israel's precise strikes on military targets in Iran was wider and more destructive this time, but remained within the range defined as a "degradation of capabilities" and was not an "all-out" war. Iranian media outlets tried hard to minimize the extent of the damage. Israel's retaliation proved its military capability of striking dozens of targets deep inside Iran, over a large and dispersed area, in a manner which conveyed an important message. It showed that Israel has the tactical, military, operational and intelligence-based ability to attack strategic targets and, if needed, nuclear sites. (Ha'aretz) See also The Israeli Operation in Iran Was Meticulously Coordinated with the U.S. - Amos Harel (Ha'aretz) Israel targeted an Iranian solid-fuel plant crucial to the production of Kheibar and Qasem ballistic missiles, which were fired at Israel earlier this month, Saudi news site Elaph reported on Saturday. The strike is said to have taken the facility completely offline, destroying 12 heavy fuel mixers, each worth $2 million. Sources said the facility will likely require years to resume operations. Israeli officials claim the strike caused severe damage to Iran's air defenses and ballistic missile capabilities. A senior Israeli source noted that while the Israel public expects dramatic displays, the high level of U.S.-Israel cooperation on security matters weighed heavily on operational decisions. (Ynet News) At a bleak time in global affairs, a powerful blow has been struck against the most malign regime in the Middle East. On Friday night the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a measured, precise but devastating aerial assault on Iran. It was a proportionate response to Iran's missile attack on Israel, and civilian casualties were kept to a minimum. Israel has reminded allies and enemies alike of just how formidable its military capabilities are. The IDF has established air superiority over Iran and can destroy its military infrastructure with virtual impunity. Having already decapitated Hamas and Hizbullah, Israel has demonstrated that it could do the same to their masters in Tehran at a time of its choosing. While Europe and America have sought to bully Israel into ceasefires, the IDF has methodically set about eliminating the terrorist threat on its border, while checking Iranian power and influence. (Telegraph-UK) Israel has apparently inflicted severe damage on Iran's air defense systems. It is reasonable to assume that they were significantly impaired in the initial wave of attacks, given that the Iranians barely intercepted any missiles or Israeli fighter jets. With its air defenses neutralized in several critical areas, Iranian leaders will have to carefully consider whether to launch a strong attack on Israel and risk a counter-response they cannot stop. The Israeli strike was deliberately designed to offer the Iranian regime the option to avoid retaliation. The IDF spokesperson explicitly stated the strike was "focused," and Israel has no interest in prolonging the exchange of blows. The Israeli strikes aimed to achieve a tangible impact on Iranian military capabilities, a clear signal to the regime that it is exposed and vulnerable, which strengthens deterrence, and a severe blow to its prestige in the eyes of its citizens, all while carefully giving Tehran a "ladder to climb down from the tree," providing a justification to halt the cycle of retaliation. Neither Israel, the U.S., nor Iran currently desires a regional war. The strikes on facilities for the development and production of surface-to-surface missiles and rocket engines were carried out around 2:00 a.m., when no civilians were present. Attacks in Ilam and Khuzestan provinces targeted surface-to-surface missile launch facilities and arrays, from which ballistic missiles were launched at Israel in the two previous Iranian attacks. (Ynet News) Israel destroyed Iran's air defense systems, leaving the country vulnerable to repeated Israeli Air Force strikes. These systems, of Russian origin, also demonstrate the superiority of Western weapons over Eastern ones. Given that Russia needs these systems for its war against Ukraine, it's questionable whether Russia will agree to sell additional systems to Iran. Israel's offensive capabilities surpass Iran's defensive capabilities, revealing Israel's clear operational superiority over Iran. Israel managed to strike all of its intended targets, while Iran did not. In deciding whether to escalate, Khamenei must consider key factors: Does Iran have enough missiles to sustain a prolonged campaign against Israel, given that production has been disrupted? Could Israel's next strike target energy and nuclear facilities? No response would signify an historic weakness, while a response would allow Israel to strike where it truly hurts. All this is happening as Hizbullah is weakened and no longer serves as a restraining force on Israel. The writer, executive director of INSS, was former head of IDF Intelligence. (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) One particular economic indicator that tells us everything about Israel's security landscape and where we're headed - Iran's oil exports. The number instantly telegraphs whether regional terror forces are about to bulk up or slim down. When global sanctions hit Iran's nuclear program, Hizbullah's allowance took a massive hit in the latter half of the previous decade. Then came the nuclear deal, unfrozen assets, and lighter sanctions - suddenly Tehran was raking in $50 billion annually from oil. No surprise that from 2016 onward, we saw Iranian proxies everywhere flexing their muscles: Hizbullah, Iraqi militias, Yemen's Houthis, and Palestinian Islamist groups all grew fat on Tehran's petrodollars. The landscape shifted dramatically after Trump cranked up sanctions. Iran struggled to bankroll its military ambitions and proxy networks. But when Biden took office in 2021, the sanctions pressure eased considerably. This year, Iran's oil sales hit $50 billion, with China playing the role of eager and nearly exclusive customer, happily scooping up discounted Iranian crude. But last month brought a stunning reversal. The U.S. Treasury announced fresh sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector. This time they went after maritime shipping companies that help Iran play hide-and-seek with its oil exports. The impact was immediate and dramatic. Iranian exports to China plummeted from $4 billion in August to $1.5 billion in September, with October projected to sink below $1 billion. This economic offensive allowed American officials to make the case that striking oil facilities would be overkill. Moreover, Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, pled with Washington to keep Iranian oil infrastructure off the target list, terrified of Iranian retaliation against their own facilities. (Israel Hayom) The Gaza War On Oct. 16, Israeli soldiers eliminated Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas commander who plotted and implemented the invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Sinwar's goal was not to force Israel to end the "occupation" of Gaza because all Israelis left Gaza in 2005. His goal was to destroy Israel "from the river to the sea" and then replace it with a theocracy. President Biden is again pressuring Israel to cease firing and offer deals. He fails to comprehend that enemies who are determined to kill you for ideological or theological reasons cannot be appeased. A big stick may deter them, but offers of carrots only whet their appetite for more war, genocide and conquest. The writer is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). (Washington Times) Israelis appreciate the munitions America has supplied, and President Biden's tremendous moral support. Still, the obsessive administration attempts to restrain Israel terrify me as an American historian. Such moral and strategic confusion does not bode well for America's defense posture. It telegraphs weakness to America's enemies, along with impatience with the kind of sustained conflict required to defeat evil. Such callowness cultivates among America's population a sniveling, simplistic, and unrealistic approach to foreign relations that underestimates the need to unleash tremendous firepower when fighting totalitarians and terrorists. Sinwar's reign of terror ended only because Netanyahu and Israel defied conventional wisdom and world opinion. Deploying unremitting, prolonged pressure on Gaza worked. Nevertheless, both southern Lebanon and Gaza still overflow with weapons depots, command-and-control centers, and jihadists vowing to destroy Israel. We cannot end the war in Gaza until Israel is secure. We, who want this war to end yesterday, must keep fighting tomorrow until the aggressors - Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iran - cave in. The writer, a Distinguished Scholar of North American History at McGill University, is a Senior Fellow in Zionist Thought at the Jewish People Policy Institute. (Jerusalem Post) Hamas has been investing great efforts to regain civilian control across Gaza. Hamas is biding its time to fully reemerge when circumstances are more favorable. This cannot be allowed to happen. Hamas uses criminal elements to ensure its control. With the movement's approval, crime families in Gaza have been collecting taxes and enforcing order. In return, Hamas allows them to divert respectable chunks of humanitarian aid, among other benefits. Hamas's taxation and distribution of humanitarian aid serves as an important resource that ensures its continued status as the strongest force in Gaza. Hamas's widespread control of aid has made many Gazans feel that much still depends on the movement. To complete the process of toppling Hamas, the international community must formulate a powerful and independent governmental alternative and then take steps to implement it. Devorah Margolin is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute. Neomi Neumann is a visiting fellow and former head of research at the Israel Security Agency. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The IDF on Thursday published documents captured in Gaza that indicated close cooperation between Hamas and Al Jazeera. Hamas advised the Qatari network not to criticize it, and they coordinated on concealing incidents of failed rocket launches. The IDF also released evidence of Hamas's efforts in 2023 to establish a secure line with Al Jazeera for classified information and emergencies. On Wednesday, the IDF publicized documents that showed that six active Al Jazeera reporters are operatives in Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Anas al-Sharif served as head of a rocket launching squad and a member of a Nukhba Force. Alaa Salameh was deputy head of the Shaboura Battalion's propaganda unit in Islamic Jihad. Hossam Shabat was a sniper in Hamas's Beit Hanoun Battalion. Ashraf al-Sarraj was a member of Islamic Jihad's Bureij Battalion. Ismail Abu Omar was a training company commander in the East Khan Yunis Battalion. Talal al-Arrouqi was a team commander in Hamas's Nuseirat Battalion. (Times of Israel) Captured Hamas documents show that the mastermind of the Oct. 7 slaughter, Yahya Sinwar, envisioned the operation as a go-for-broke effort to ignite a wider regional war that would topple Israel. At a "strategic vision" conference in Gaza on Sep. 30, 2021, Sinwar affirmed that "the heart of Hamas's strategic vision" was "full liberation of Palestine from the sea to the river." Sinwar was quite clear that this "vision" meant neither a two-state solution nor coexistence but "the Palestinian refugees' return to their homeland, and the establishment of a Palestinian state with full sovereignty over its lands, with Jerusalem as its capital." As for the 7.2 million Jews (46% of the world's Jewish population) who would remain under Hamas "control," the conference final report proposed that Israelis who fought Hamas "must be killed," although anyone "fleeing" could "be left alone or be prosecuted for his crimes." "Educated Jews and experts in the areas of medicine, engineering, technology, and civilian and military industry" would be "retained...for some time" and "not be allowed to leave and take with them the knowledge and experience that they acquired." The implication is that they would serve the new Hamas regime, voluntarily or otherwise. (Washington Post) Israeli Security In the wake of Oct. 7, when the unthinkable happened and Israel was brutally attacked, many Jews felt an overwhelming sense of abandonment from outside the Jewish world. We had long allied with and supported various groups, governments, and individuals who had spoken of friendship, support, and shared values. Yet when Jewish blood was spilled, the reactions of many were muted, ambiguous, or even hostile. But in the year that followed, Jews of all stripes began to come together in ways we hadn't seen in years. It was a unity based on mutual responsibility and survival. Suddenly, the divisions that often define Jewish discourse and politics seemed to fade, revealing a shared sense of peoplehood with an unwavering commitment to communal self-sufficiency. Yes, we still disagree about important things. Yet, we know something more important: We are an eternal people who stand for our shared safety and prosperity. Our enemies have attempted to divide us, to sow fear and hatred. But in their efforts to harm us, they have inadvertently made us stronger and more determined. We know that those who hate us, those who wish to see the Jewish people eradicated, will exploit any cracks in our coalition. If they can divide us, they believe they can destroy us. But we will not allow our disagreements to weaken our resolve or our commitment to each other. Our enemies thought they could do more than kill us - they thought they could break us. But they do not understand what it means to be Jewish. They only served to bring us closer together. The writer, Assistant to the U.S. President and Special Representative for International Negotiations (2017-2019), played a key role in developing the Abraham Accords. (Times of Israel) Golda Meir said of Israel's enemies, "They say we must be dead. And we say we want to be alive. Between life and death, I don't know of a compromise." Israelis live in the Middle East, not the Middle West. Yet politicians speak dreamily of ceasefire agreements and a Palestinian state. The root of the conflict is not the so-called "occupation." When Jordan oversaw the West Bank for 19 years and Egypt controlled Gaza, no one demanded a new Palestinian state. Israel doesn't occupy Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen or Iran, and yet it is being attacked by all those countries. The issue has never been Palestinian self-determination. Arab states invaded Israel in 1948 to carve it up among themselves, not create a Palestinian state. The Palestinians literally blew up the 1993 Oslo Accords with terrorism and turned down independence provided by the Clinton, Olmert and Trump Mideast peace plans. What fuels this ongoing conflict is not a fight for Palestinian self-determination but the refusal of Islamist forces to accept a Jewish state in their midst. Peace cannot be achieved through land or ceasefire agreements since Muslim extremists do not believe that Jews can live on any part of Islamic land. The two-state crowd ignores the Palestinians when they say a Palestinian state would have to be Judenrein, the only place in the world where Jews would not be permitted to live. Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah expressed hope that diaspora Jews would all move to Israel. "If they all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide." War is hell, but it is also sometimes necessary. What is the alternative when the Iranian regime has surrounded Israel with an "axis of resistance," attacks it with ballistic missiles, and is developing nuclear weapons to incinerate it? Americans are in the same fight. Israelis are told they are creating more terrorists, but Americans have never hesitated to kill terrorists out of such concern. While some are telling Israel to "take the win," no one proposed that the U.S. stop the war on terror after Osama bin Laden was dispatched. (JNS) U.S.-Israel Relations As Israel conducts ground operations against Hizbullah in Lebanon, it has encountered tunnels similar to those beneath Gaza. Not for the first time, Israel is engaged in a new kind of fight that the U.S. will face in its future conflicts. Just as the U.S. has learned from Israel's wars in the past, how Israel is overcoming the risks of tunnel warfare through coordinated troop maneuvers and technological adaptations should drive a shift in the U.S. approach to subterranean combat. (Breaking Defense) Israel and the West It took the world community nearly a year to condemn the war in Lebanon, but instead of condemning Hizbullah for starting the war in support of the terrorist organization Hamas, the West's political "elites" condemned Israel for defending itself by targeting Hizbullah's leadership. The UN Security Council called an emergency session on Sep. 20, during which UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said he was "appalled" by the attacks on Hizbullah pagers and walkie-talkies. Slovenian ambassador Samuel Zbogar, whose country held the Security Council presidency, blamed Israel for creating destabilization and "terror" with its precision targeting of Hizbullah terrorists. "Those who ordered and carried out such an attack must be brought to justice," he said. There was no mention of international law for Hizbullah's unprovoked, year-long bombardments of missiles and attack drones. Israel, in other words, must supposedly be brought before a world court for having the gall to defend its civilians from a terrorist organization. (Gatestone Institute) Observations: U.S. Pressuring Israeli Lawmakers to Drop Bill Banning Terror-Linked UN Agency - Efrat Lachter (Fox News)
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