Prepared for the Conference of Presidents | |
DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, December 3, 2019 |
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
U.S. officials cite new intelligence suggesting Tehran's finances are more dire than previously thought and are bringing it closer to a financial crisis. According to the new intelligence, the government is scraping the barrel on foreign-exchange reserves. Combined with the oil drop-off and a widening trade deficit, Iran is facing even greater economic duress than in 2013, when the government was pressured into starting nuclear negotiations with global powers, U.S. officials say. Iran's currency reserves are estimated by the IMF to be at $86 billion currently, or 20% below the level in 2013. But the situation likely is more challenging. Brian Hook, the U.S. special envoy for Iran, said Tehran has access to only 10% of those cash reserves, as sanctions against the financial sector prevent the government from tapping them. (Wall Street Journal) U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Monday that Iran was the uniting factor behind protests in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran. Iraqi premier Adel Abdel Mahdi resigned "because the people were demanding freedom and the security forces had killed dozens and dozens of people. That's due in large part to Iranian influence," Pompeo said. "The same is true in Lebanon, the protests in Beirut. They want Hizbullah and Iran out of their country, out of their system as a violent and a repressive force." He said that protests inside Iran showed that Iranians were also "fed up." "They see a theocracy that is stealing...tens of millions of dollars." (AFP) A YouGov poll found that 35% of those who "strongly like" Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn agreed with four or more statements deemed to be anti-Semitic, while 58% held two or more such views. The proportion of ardent supporters of the other candidates who agreed with such statements was significantly less. Gideon Falter of the Campaign Against Anti-Semitism said that "the leader of the once fiercely anti-racist Labour Party is now the candidate of choice for anti-Jewish racists." (Sunday Telegraph-UK) See also Ruth Smeeth, Jewish Labour MP, Carries Panic Button due to Death Threats Prominent Jewish Labour party politician Ruth Smeeth told Stoke on Trent Live that she carries a panic button in her pocket, and refrains from using public transport due to death threats. "My house is a fortress, my office is a fortress. I've got panic buttons in my house, I carry one in my pocket. I have to live in an environment that no one should have to live in," she said. (Jerusalem Post) See also Anti-Semitism Is Embedded in British Culture - Prof. Robert S. Wistrich (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2008) The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Fatou Bensouda, on Monday again refused to open an investigation into the 2010 storming by Israeli forces of a Turkish flotilla heading to Gaza. Appeals judges in September ordered Bensouda to reconsider her earlier refusals to open a formal investigation into the storming of the Mavi Marmara. (AP) Iraqi security forces opened fire on demonstrators in Nassiriya, killing at least 29 people and wounding dozens more. David Schenker, U.S. assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, said Monday, "The use of excessive force over the weekend in Nassiriya was shocking and abhorrent." Iraqi forces have killed over 400 people since mass anti-government protests broke out on Oct. 1. (Reuters) Fabrice Labeau, Deputy Provost of McGill University, sent an email to its students stating that their student government's decision to prosecute a Jewish student for attending a Hillel-sponsored trip to Israel fosters "a culture of ostracization." The decision "is contrary to the University's values of inclusion, diversity and respect" and represents a "very serious breach of trust." "There is absolutely no place for discriminatory behavior, attitude or discourse that runs contrary to our core values and principles." (Post Millennial-Canada) Retired Turkish general Adnan Tanriverdi, a chief advisor to Turkish President Erdogan, told a conference in Istanbul on Nov. 29 "that it was not possible for the Islamic world to give up on Jerusalem," and that "Israel governed 85% of Palestinian land." He added: "The Islamic world should prepare an army for Palestine from outside Palestine." (MEMRI) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Visiting Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said Tuesday he was in favor of "new thinking" about the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, acknowledging that the realities on the ground have changed since the Oslo Accords in the mid-1990s. He acknowledged that any peace agreement will have to take Israeli security concerns into consideration. In an interview with Israel's Channel 11, Coveney reiterated Dublin's opposition to a bill passed in the upper house of Ireland's parliament that would criminalize the import of settlement products into Ireland. "Because we don't believe it's legally sound, we have effectively blocked the legislation from moving through parliament," Coveney said. (Times of Israel) Abd al-Hadi al-Hajj, foreign minister to Gen. Khalifa Haftar's interim government that controls east Libya, told Maariv during a visit in Paris that he hopes Libya could establish normal relations with Israel if the Palestinian problem was resolved. Al-Hajj said his government, which sits in Tobruk, enjoys the support of Russia, France, Egypt, the UK and Saudi Arabia. According to Hajj, extremist Islamic militants backed by Turkey and Qatar sit in Tripoli. (Maariv) A special Israeli aid mission departed Tuesday for Albania, headed by the commander of the National Search and Rescue Brigade, Col. (res.) Golan Wach, following the devastating earthquake there. Ten officers and engineers will survey damaged buildings. A humanitarian aid shipment includes tents to be used as emergency dwellings and logistical support for casualties. (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran has experienced its most significant turmoil in a decade. The crowds have adopted chants that include taunts against the supreme leader. They have attacked statues of Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the revolution, and offices affiliated with his successor, Khamenei. Numerous images and videos of Basiji paramilitary forces firing into crowds, rushing into crowds while swinging truncheons from the backs of motorcycles, and beating protesters indiscriminately have been posted to social media. The most severe anti-regime activism in terms of destruction to government buildings appears to be occurring in more blue-collar and traditionally more conservative provincial cities. In Iraq, Iran has become one of the key targets of the protest movement. Iran's massive political influence in Iraq has made it an arch villain. A recent opinion poll found that Iraqis view Iran even less favorably than they view the U.S. Iran has invested in militants who can fight wars and take territory, but they are generally poor at governance. Once security has been established, and citizens have the luxury to think about more than mere survival, suddenly things like access to electricity, employment, education, and health care begin to matter more. The protests in Iran evince the shaky ground undergirding the Islamic Republic. As the region's recent history has shown, repressing the popular desire for good governance and justice does not end that desire and could beget even further instability. Afshon Ostovar is an assistant professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Henry Rome is an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group. (War on the Rocks) Iran's economy is in far worse shape today than it was on the eve of the Shah's fall in 1978. While the protests were initially largely motivated by economic factors, they now demand the removal not only of President Rouhani and his government but of the supreme leader and the clerics around him as well. The regime forces suppressing dissent are ideologically committed to the system of clerically-dominated rule. Their commanders realize that the fall of the regime could mean an end to their power and perks. This means that the regime is likely to survive in the short term, but its legitimacy has been irreparably damaged by the disproportionate and brutal use of force. Hardly anyone in Iran now buys the argument that the governing powers are defending Islam and the country against foreign enemies. The writer is Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations at Michigan State University. (National Interest) Observations: New Hallmark Hanukkah Movies Are Anti-Semitic - Britni de la Cretaz (Washington Post)
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