| DAILY ALERT |
Sunday, August 4, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
The Biden administration is convinced Iran is going to attack Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week and is preparing to counter it, three U.S. officials told Axios. The U.S. intelligence community started receiving clear indications on Wednesday that Iran is going to retaliate, a U.S. official said. A senior Israeli official said the Israeli intelligence community expects Iran will launch a wide-ranging missile attack on Israel. U.S. officials say they expect any Iranian retaliation to be from the same playbook as their Apr. 13 attack on Israel - but potentially larger in scope - and it could also involve the Lebanese Hizbullah. (Axios) See also Biden Reaffirms U.S. Commitment to Support Israel's Defense Against Threats from Iran President Biden spoke Thursday with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel. The President reaffirmed his commitment to Israel's security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hizbullah, and the Houthis. The President discussed efforts to support Israel's defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments. Vice President Harris also joined the call. (White House) The U.S. will move a fighter jet squadron to the Middle East and maintain an aircraft carrier in the region, the Pentagon said Friday, beefing up the American military presence to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies and safeguard U.S. troops. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has also ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the European and Middle East regions and is taking steps to send more land-based ballistic missile defense weapons there, the Pentagon said Friday. In a call on Thursday, President Joe Biden discussed new U.S. military deployments with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to protect against possible attacks from ballistic missiles and drones. In April, U.S. forces intercepted dozens of missiles and drones fired by Iran against Israel. Austin is ordering the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which is in the Gulf of Oman but scheduled to come home later this summer. (AP-Washington Post) Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of Hamas, was killed on Wednesday by an explosive device smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse run by the Revolutionary Guards where he was staying, according to Middle Eastern and American officials. The bomb had been hidden two months ago and was detonated remotely, once it was confirmed that Haniyeh was inside his room. Haniyeh had stayed at the guesthouse several times when visiting Tehran. The leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, was staying next door, but his room was not badly damaged. David Barnea, the head of Israel's Mossad foreign intelligence service, said in January that his service was "obliged" to hunt down the leaders of Hamas, the group behind the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel. "It will take time, as it took after the massacre in Munich [at the 1972 Olympics], but our hands will catch them wherever they are." (New York Times) Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, hired Iranian security agents to plant explosives in three separate rooms of a building where Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was staying, the Telegraph has learned. The original plan was to target Haniyeh in May when he attended the funeral of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran's former president. Instead, the two agents placed explosive devices in three rooms of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) guesthouse in north Tehran where Haniyeh might stay. The agents were seen as they entered and exited multiple rooms within minutes, according to the officials who have CCTV footage of the building. The operatives are then said to have snuck out of the country but had a source still in Iran. On Wednesday, they detonated the explosives from abroad in the room where Haniyeh was staying. An official within the IRGC told the Telegraph, "They are now certain that Mossad hired agents from the Ansar al-Mahdi protection unit," an IRGC unit responsible for the safety of high-ranking officials. "Upon further investigation, they discovered additional explosive devices in two other rooms." There is now an internal blame game taking over the IRGC, with different sectors accusing each other of the failure, revealed the official. Esmail Qaani, the commander of the IRGC Quds force, has been summoning people to be fired, arrested and possibly executed, he said. He added that for the Supreme Leader, "addressing the security breach is now more important than seeking revenge." (Telegraph-UK) Iran has arrested more than two dozen people, including senior intelligence officers, military officials and staff workers at a military-run guesthouse in Tehran, in response to the security breach that enabled the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Wednesday, according to two Iranians. The deadly blast was viewed as a collapse of intelligence and security, a failure to protect a key ally, an inability to curb the infiltration of Mossad, and a humiliating reputational blow. It delivered a jarring realization that if Israel could target such an important guest, on a day when the capital was under heightened security, and carry out the attack at a highly secure compound equipped with bulletproof windows, air defense and radar, then no one was really safe. An Iranian member of the Revolutionary Guards said that security protocols had been completely overhauled in the past two days for senior officials. (New York Times) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
An Israeli woman, Rina Daniv, 66, was killed as well as an 80-year-old man, and two others were wounded on Sunday morning in a Palestinian stabbing attack in Holon. A policeman shot and killed the terrorist. Rina's husband Shimon, 69, is in serious condition and Yaakov Levertov, 26, is in moderate condition. The terrorist was Amar Odeh, 34, from the Palestinian city Salfit in the West Bank, who was in Israel illegally. Israel Police spokesman Eli Levy called on the public to be vigilant and that those permitted and trained to carry a weapon should have it on their person at all times. (Jerusalem Post) Israel recently killed two Hamas politburo members and three military commanders in a tunnel under Gaza City, according to Hamas sources quoted by Asharq Al-Awsat. The strike on the tunnel took place a week and a half ago. Hamas sources say the bodies were pulled from the rubble in a complicated extraction effort that took several days and they were buried on Thursday. (Times of Israel) The IDF carried out airstrikes in the West Bank city of Tulkarm on Saturday. A drone strike on a vehicle killed five terrorists on their way to carry out an attack, among them the Hamas commander in Tulkarm. Later, after Israeli forces entered the city and exchanged fire with terrorists, a second airstrike killed four Palestinians. (Ha'aretz) According to a Maariv poll conducted last week, 69% of Israelis believe it was correct to target terrorist leaders in Beirut and Tehran, even if it may delay a hostage deal. 19% think it was not correct, and 12% are unsure. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War I was the first U.S. general officer (active or retired) to travel across Gaza during this war. The Israel Defense Forces face the acute challenge of defending their nation while striving to protect Palestinian civilians. Unfortunately, negative perceptions on social media and elsewhere, based on a combination of disinformation, ignorance, and anti-Semitism, indicates there is a wide gap between the reality I witnessed and the perceptions abroad. Assertions that Israel is intentionally starving Gazan civilians did not match what I witnessed. While the average man needs 2500 calories a day to maintain a stable diet and the average woman needs 2000, there is enough aid entering Gaza daily to support over a 3,000 calorie a day diet. The military activities I saw, as well as the processes and procedures followed by the Israeli military, are indicative of the IDF complying with the laws of armed conflict. What I witnessed in Gaza impressed upon me that the sooner the Palestinians subjugated by these militant forces can be free of extremism, the sooner the world can become a better place. The writer, Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and a Senior Military Scholar at the Air Force Academy, was the principal attack planner for the 1991 Operation Desert Storm air campaign and director of the air campaign over Afghanistan in 2001. (Forbes) On July 26, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris stated that the "two-state solution is the only path" for Israel, and made clear her "serious concerns" about casualties in Gaza. "It's time for this war to end," she added. Yet on Oct. 6, 2023, there was a ceasefire in place between Israel and Hamas. Hamas broke it. Harris completely ignored the fact that the Palestinians of Gaza are suffering because of a war initiated by Hamas. She completely ignored that the Palestinians of Gaza are suffering because of a war initiated by Hamas. She could have done many Palestinians a favor had she called on Hamas to relinquish control over Gaza and stop using its people as human shields in its jihad (holy war) against Israel. Harris's remarks concerning the establishment of a Palestinian state in the wake of Hamas's Oct. 7 atrocities show that she and the Biden administration continue to live in a fantasy world. The Oct. 7 massacres demonstrate why the creation of a Palestinian state is actually a surefire way to perpetuate the Palestinian jihad against Israel. Giving up the West Bank and eastern Jerusalem to the Palestinians would surely turn these two areas into launching sites for murdering more Jews as part of their jihadi commitment to destroy Israel. Instead of talking about a Palestinian state, Harris should have told the Palestinians that they will never achieve a state as long as they back Hamas or vow to destroy a UN member state. She should also have warned the Palestinians that they will never be granted their own state unless they recognize Israel's right to exist as the ancestral home of the Jewish people, stop radicalizing their youth, and renounce violence and terrorism. By advocating an end to the war in Gaza, Harris is asking that Israel, by allowing Hamas to remain in power, submit itself to unending jihadist attacks. What country would do that? (Gatestone Institute) Ismail Haniyeh was leader of a genocidal terror organization committed to the extermination of every Jew on the planet. Yet BBC's Middle East correspondent, Yolande Knell, told us that since Haniyeh was overseeing peace talks, he must have been a really good guy because, you know, peace - and so "despite his tough rhetoric," "analysts" saw the now dead Hamas leader as actually "moderate and pragmatic." Haniyeh recorded a message to Palestinians, saying: "We need the blood of women, children, and the elderly of Gaza...so as to awaken our revolutionary spirit." As for "pragmatic," he was prepared to let others join Hamas in murdering Jews on Oct. 7 and let at least four other Islamist terror groups take part. Kudos to Haniyeh for not keeping the glory all to Hamas. The tone of much of the BBC's coverage has been as if the last hope for peace has been brutally extinguished by Israel, rather than a mastermind behind the butchery of 1,200 people on Oct. 7. (Jewish Chronicle-UK) The IDF disclosed a document on Saturday confirming that Ismail al-Ghoul, an Al Jazeera journalist, was an operative in Hamas's Nukhba forces. The document, found on Hamas computers, lists al-Ghoul as an engineer in Hamas's Gaza City Brigade. The IDF reported that al-Ghoul participated in the Oct. 7 massacre and was killed in an airstrike last week in northern Gaza. (Ynet News) Israeli Security Israel has dealt a devastating blow to two of its most formidable adversaries - Hizbullah and Hamas. In the symbol-rich world of Islam, this event deals a severe blow to Iran's image and shatters the self-assurance of the radical axis. The intelligence vulnerability of Iran and its allies, coupled with the Israeli military's remarkable boldness and operational capabilities, pose a genuine challenge to Iran and its partners. Israel is well-acquainted with Iran's arsenal and capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, they do not possess any secret game-changing weapon, and therefore, the expected response will likely follow familiar patterns of action. The writer is former head of the Terrorism Division of the Mossad. (Israel Hayom) Terrorist leader Ismail Haniyeh is dead. Good riddance! Those blaming Israel have it exactly wrong. Haniyeh, the killers he commanded, and their patrons in Iran are the ones causing war and chaos. They're the escalators, not Israel, which - as so many conveniently forget - is the victim, not the aggressor. Haniyeh helped lead an organization devoted to genocide against the Jewish people. His death was a strategic necessity for Israel, and a moral one as well. That his death generated a new crop of equivocators devoted to his defense is beyond obscene. (New York Post) The death in Tehran of Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, suggests to the world that its security services are deeply penetrated by Israel. This is a devastating demonstration of incompetence for the regime. In some quarters, Haniyeh is being eulogized as a moderate and Israel's attack on him condemned as prolonging the war. There were hopes in Qatar, Gaza, Turkey and Iran that the U.S. could be bamboozled into supporting a ceasefire leading to a "moderate" Hamas government in a unified West Bank-Gaza Palestinian protostate under Haniyeh's leadership. For many on Team Biden, getting a ceasefire and moving toward establishing a Palestinian state had become America's top objective. To most Israelis, ending the war with the installation of a Hamas-led government in the West Bank is unthinkable. It would reward terror and give Israel's enemies greater power than ever before. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College. (Wall Street Journal) The life-insurance premiums for senior Iranian and Hizbullah officials just spiked. The coordinated targeting operations send the message that Hizbullah's leaders, and the leaders of other groups that depend on Iran's funding and protection, remain alive only because Israel has not yet decided to kill them. (Atlantic) Iran's ring of fire around Israel is shrinking and the Islamic Republic's axis is not what it was several months ago, says Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He emphasized that the Israel Defense Forces' recent achievements in Gaza represent a significant blow to the Iranian axis, noting that the successful elimination of key figures in Hizbullah and Hamas is part of a larger picture. Amidror pointed out that Hamas in Gaza, once a formidable military-terror organization, now operates at a fraction of its previous strength due to sustained IDF operations. "If Hamas began Oct. 7 with 100% capabilities, today it is at 30%. 70% was destroyed by Israel. The picture in front of decision-makers in Tehran, Beirut and elsewhere is different from a few months ago when it seemed Israel was losing its position." Amidror listed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas deputy politburo chief Saleh al-Arouri, who was targeted in Beirut in January, and Hamas military-terror chief in Gaza Mohammed Deif, as well as Hamas's No. 3 in Gaza, Marwan Issa, as being eliminated. "So we now have four out of six of the top leaders who were already punished for what they had done on Oct. 7." Remaining alive are Yahya Sinwar and his brother Muhammad. (JNS) Secretary of State Antony Blinken took to television to deny any American responsibility for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, in Tehran. That is nothing about which to be proud. Blinken may see such a statement as a way to prevent Iran and Hamas from going after American targets. The problem is that Iran and Hamas already target Americans. The Iranian government quite openly has put bounties on former government officials like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Iran point man Brian Hook and has sought to kidnap Iranian and Iranian American dissidents from American soil. Showing weakness in the face of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps outrage does not bring security; it encourages aggression. Nor should targeting terror leaders be something from which the U.S. shies away. The U.S. first designated Hamas almost three decades ago, because Hamas killed not only Israelis but also Americans. It targeted children and civilians. It specialized in bombing civilian buses, markets, and restaurants. Its covenant openly embraced genocide. For decades, the U.S. did not shy away from targeting terrorists. President George W. Bush killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a man responsible for dozens of American and hundreds, if not thousands, of Iraqi deaths. President Barack Obama (over Vice President Biden's advice) eliminated Osama Bin Laden. President Donald Trump eliminated Iranian Quds Force Chief Qassem Soleimani. Why should anyone be embarrassed about killing Haniyeh? The reluctance to strike terrorists on Iranian territory only shows that the White House and State Department fail to understand the Iranian regime's commitment to its own ideology. Blinken's statement was an expression of weakness that further diminishes the U.S. in the eyes of its enemies. The only unfortunate aspect of Haniyeh's demise was that Israel beat the U.S. to it. The writer is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. (National Security Journal) Iran routinely depicts the Jewish state as irreversibly in decline. Yet the killing of Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh shows that Israel can get its man, anytime, anyplace. Israel is testing the proposition that all militant Muslims welcome martyrdom. It's not unlikely that Tehran believed that by inflaming Israel's frontiers with deadly attacks by its proxies, it could provoke the international community to impose a ceasefire on Israel. Both the Biden administration and the Europeans have acted helpfully, dispatching a parade of mediators seeking a ceasefire. In that scenario, a battered Hamas would survive to fight another day, and Hizbullah's large missile stockpiles would remain, deterring Israel and the U.S. from attacks on Iran. Should Washington warn Iran clearly that if Tehran retaliates against Israel, the U.S. will intervene in the conflict on Jerusalem's side - and far more muscularly than before - the mullahs will take note and proceed more cautiously. They still respect American power and understand that their regime can't afford a conflict with the U.S. Regrettably, the Biden administration has so far taken the opposite path. Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. (Wall Street Journal) It's been a bad week for terrorists, with the deaths of Hizbullah chief of staff Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during a visit to Tehran. These two men have rivers of blood on their hands. The goals of the organizations they lead are to destroy Israel and accomplish the genocide of its people. Headlines about their deaths in America's leading newspapers all emphasized the potential negative repercussions. No matter how many terrorists the Israelis kill, there always seems to be more to take their place. Instead of finding more creative and ingenious ways of killing people, Israelis are told they must stop shooting and find common ground with their foes - or at least stop actions that only inspire more outraged Palestinians, Lebanese and Iranians to become terrorists. That sounds reasonable to Western minds, as well as to Israelis who prefer magical thinking about their nation's security dilemmas to confronting reality. But it is profoundly mistaken because the members of Hamas and Hizbullah aren't interested in peace on any terms with Israel. Targeted killings of leaders of terrorist groups make sense because that is what you do in a war against existential foes. It's true that even the most important of these leaders can, at least in theory, be replaced. Still, disrupting their activities and causing them to operate with far more caution may well save the lives of innocents that might have been lost if the killers were able to go about their business unmolested. For two millennia, Jews were killed with impunity by foes wherever they lived in the world. The rebirth of Israel means that Jews had attained the means of self-defense and the ability to ensure that those who shed Jewish blood would not go unpunished. Murderers like Shukr and Haniyeh must be pursued because the goal of Israel in this conflict should be to win it, rather than to merely survive another day in the vain hope that gentle reason, international mediation or concessions by Jerusalem will achieve peace. The only way out of the impasse isn't by pressuring Israel, which only empowers the terrorists and gives them the ability to kill more Jews. It is only by eradicating the terrorists wherever they can be found that Palestinians will be forced to conclude that their century-old war against Israel cannot succeed and that they must try something else. (JNS) Iran During a call between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu on Thursday, Barak Ravid of Axios reports that Biden warned Netanyahu not to escalate in response to an Iranian attack and to move immediately to a Gaza ceasefire. A Gaza ceasefire is no easy call. It would mean releasing hundreds of terrorists and giving Hamas a fair chance at ruling Gaza when this ends. The least America can do is not undermine Israel when its leaders insist on reasonable conditions, such as control over Gaza's border with Egypt to stop Hamas from rearming. Moreover, Biden's message to Iran is: You will pay no price for attacking Israel. That isn't advice Israel can afford to take. A senior official tells us, "Israel will 'take the win' only after we have won and our war objectives are achieved." Otherwise, direct Iranian attacks would become one more thing Israel is expected to live with. Missing from all the White House statements is what Iran should have to fear if it again fires hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. (Wall Street Journal) Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated in Tehran while he was the guest of the Iranian regime. In the Middle East, when someone comes to visit you, you are obliged to protect him. Not being able to do so heaps shame on you. The fact that Israel was somehow able to eliminate Haniyeh in one of the regime's most protected compounds makes the Iranian government the laughing stock of the Muslim world. In the Muslim world, a person, group or country must avenge a humiliation in order to regain their honor. Not doing so is understood as a sign that you are weak. Middle Easterners despise weakness. That is why the Iranian government must avenge Haniyeh's death as soon as possible. If they don't, they risk being overthrown at home because they appear weak. The writer, a fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, served as an adviser on the Islamic world for the U.S. Department of Defense for 28 years. (JNS) Hamas's surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 was part of a broader Iranian campaign to drive America out of the Middle East and America's Arab and Israeli allies into a corner - before they could corner Iran. President Biden could face the most fateful decision of his presidency: whether to go to war with Iran, alongside Israel, and take out Tehran's nuclear program, which is the keystone of Iran's strategic network in the region. Iran has been building that network to supplant America as the most powerful force in the Middle East and to bleed Israel to death by a thousand cuts inflicted by its proxies. Iran is the biggest indigenous imperial power in the Middle East, and through its proxies it has been dominating the politics of millions of Arabs living in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Iraq and Yemen - dragging their citizens into wars with Israel that few of them have any interest in. No leader in any of these Arab states today can make decisions hostile to Iran's interests without fear of being killed. Lebanon has not been able to appoint a president since Oct. 30, 2022, in large part because Tehran won't allow an independent Lebanese patriot to be in charge there. Lebanon and Syria had to observe three days of mourning after Iran's president died in a helicopter crash. (New York Times) Observations: "In Order to Repair the World, First and Foremost You Must Love Yourself and Your Family" - Rabbi Ammiel Hirsch interviewed by Avital Indig (Makor Rishon-Israel Hayom)
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