Thursday,
December 5, 2024

News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:

In a Ruined Hizbullah Stronghold, Supporters Question the Costs of War - Abbie Cheeseman
In Tyre, Lebanon, the bodies were laid out in long rows, hundreds of them, mostly fighters. "It's our culture to view this as a victory," said Mahmoud, a police officer. "But anyone who tells you that we won militarily...something has gone wrong in their head." The ceasefire in Lebanon was spun by Hizbullah as a triumph over Israel, but among its supporters - now getting a first glimpse of their devastated villages - the sense of loss is overwhelming.
    At a funeral in the southern Lebanese village of Maarakeh, Kamal, a chef, said, "I was deceived by all of their promises. A lot us were." He had always supported Hizbullah, he said. Now, he just wants to get his children out of the country. "I was promised they would destroy Tel Aviv, but none of this happened. Hizbullah is also still here, so this will just happen again in 10 or 15 years."  (Washington Post)

U.S. Intelligence: Hizbullah Aims to Rebuild - Erin Banco
Hizbullah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, but the Iran-backed group will likely try to rebuild its stockpiles and forces and pose a longterm threat to the U.S. and its regional allies, four sources briefed on updated U.S. intelligence said. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that Hizbullah had begun to recruit new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria.
    One U.S. official said that in the past, had Israel considered bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, it faced the prospect of Hizbullah reciprocating, but with Hizbullah weakened, Israel can attack Iran directly without the same threat. In Gaza, U.S. intelligence indicates Hamas has lost at least half of its fighters. (Reuters)

U.S. Air Force Destroys Threatening Weapon Systems in Syria - Matthew Olay
U.S. Central Command on Tuesday successfully engaged and destroyed several weapon systems that posed a threat to U.S. and coalition forces in Syria. The weapons destroyed - which included three truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers, a T-64 tank and multiple mortars - presented a "clear and imminent threat" to U.S. and coalition forces in the vicinity of eastern Syria's Mission Support Site Euphrates.
    "The self-defense strike occurred after the mobile multiple rocket launchers fired rockets that landed in the vicinity of MSS Euphrates, and mortars were fired toward U.S. forces," said Pentagon Press Secretary Maj.-Gen. Pat Ryder. Iranian-backed militia groups have attacked MSS Euphrates in the past. Ryder said the U.S. strikes "were not linked to any broader activities in northwest Syria by other groups."  (U.S. Defense Department)

Cyprus Takes Delivery of Israeli Air Defense System
Cyprus has taken delivery of an Israeli air defense system, local media reported on Thursday. The Barak MX anti-aircraft system will complement and eventually replace the older Russian-made Tor M1. (Reuters)

News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

IDF Thwarted Oct. 7-Like Hizbullah Raid on Northern Israel - Shaked Sadeh
A surprise attack was planned on Israel's northern border in the days following the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, a senior IDF official revealed in a Wednesday Maariv interview. The official emphasized that such an attack is unlikely to occur at this stage due to the IDF's efforts in neutralizing terror tunnels, clearing dense brushlands, and dismantling nature reserves that had been converted into terror strongholds.
    He said that 3,000 terrorists were stationed across southern Lebanon within 3 km. of the Israeli border, ready to invade upon receiving orders. "Opposite every Israeli community, a Hizbullah company was waiting to infiltrate. On October 6, Israel faced an existential threat without realizing it. The terrorists [in the north] were on full alert, ready to act."
    What prevented a coordinated invasion was the IDF's rapid deployment of four brigades to Israel's northern border on Oct. 7. "The IDF's deployment neutralized the surprise element in Hizbullah's plan, and the terrorists realized their plan was no longer feasible since surprise was central to their strategy, just as it was in Gaza."
    He noted that areas of thick vegetation provided terrorists with almost complete cover, hiding firing positions, observation posts, movements, weapons, and underground infrastructure. "These areas have been turned into open fields, so any future attempts by Hizbullah to re-establish themselves will be immediately and effectively monitored."
    The IDF reportedly held a firm stance that homes in southern Lebanese villages, from the border up to three km. into Lebanon, would not be allowed to be rebuilt. "We will not rely on Hizbullah respecting agreements or solely on intelligence warnings. The security of northern residents is based on the presence of IDF soldiers on the ground." (Jerusalem Post)

Israel Presents Hamas New Ceasefire and Hostage Release Deal
Israel has given Hamas, through Egyptian mediators, an updated version of a ceasefire deal proposal that involves the release of hostages, two Israeli officials said. "Egyptian and Qatari mediators believe Hamas might now agree to a hostage-release and ceasefire deal, even if it is partial," one Israeli official noted.
    The new proposal offers a ceasefire with Hamas lasting 42 to 60 days. During this period, Hamas would release female hostages, male hostages over 50, and hostages in critical medical condition. The proposal maintains Israel's readiness to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange. (Walla-Jerusalem Post)

Israel Rejects Claims It Is Restricting Gaza Aid, Says Hundreds of Trucks Waiting - Emanuel Fabian
Israel pushed back Tuesday against European criticism of the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oren Marmorstein said, "Israel is facilitating the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza and does not impose any restrictions on the quantity of aid entering." He said international organizations had failed "to distribute the aid due to looting by Hamas."
    According to the Defense Ministry's Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), 780 truckloads of aid were awaiting pickup on the Gazan side of the Kerem Shalom crossing between Israel and Gaza on Tuesday, after just 43 were picked up the previous day by international organizations. On Sunday, UNRWA said it was pausing the delivery of aid through Kerem Shalom because of looting by armed gangs in Gaza. (Times of Israel)

IDF Drone Kills 3 Hamas Gunmen in Jordan Valley Planning "Imminent Terror Attack" - Emanuel Fabian
Three Hamas gunmen who were planning an "imminent terror attack" were killed in an Israeli drone strike on Tuesday near the Palestinian village of Aqabah in the Jordan Valley. The IDF later seized four weapons. (Times of Israel)

Israel Strikes Hizbullah Rocket Launcher in Southern Lebanon
An Israel Air Force aircraft struck a Hizbullah rocket launcher in the Majdal Zoun area of southern Lebanon, in order to enforce the ceasefire, the IDF said Wednesday. (Jerusalem Post)

Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

Lessons from the Israel-Hizbullah Ceasefire - Stuart E. Eizenstat and Dennis Ross
Israel's use of force set the stage for the ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah, brokered by the U.S. The Israel Defense Forces and Mossad acted decisively to decapitate Hizbullah's leadership; disrupt its command, control, and communications; destroy 80% of its rocket forces; and dismantle its weapons stocks and infrastructure - below- and aboveground.
    Israel also retaliated against Iran after its Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel, destroying Iran's strategic air and missile defense and 90% of its ballistic-missile-production capability. It reminded us once again of Henry Kissinger's maxim that you can achieve at the negotiating table only what you have won on the battlefield.
    The Israelis understood that they could not eliminate Hizbullah; instead, they aimed to ensure that Hizbullah could have no forces south of the Litani River and could not easily rearm there. The U.S. will also provide intelligence to monitor implementation of the agreement, and will chair the committee through which any violation will be immediately addressed. Israel has reportedly received assurances from the U.S. that, if violations are not reversed, it can act militarily.
    Stuart E. Eizenstat was President Jimmy Carter's chief domestic policy adviser and served as U.S. Ambassador to the EU. Dennis Ross is a former U.S. Envoy to the Middle East.  (Atlantic)

Israel Must Enforce the Ceasefire with Hizbullah - Gil Troy
The U.S. must support Israel aggressively, allowing Israel to punish any violations of the ceasefire with Hizbullah, no matter how minor. The ceasefire will only last if Israel's 80,000 northern evacuees can return home and rebuild, while Hizbullah terrorists avoid Southern Lebanon, knowing they'll be crushed if they dare return. Yes, my language is aggressive, but not enough people realize that strength brings peace and weakness brings war, especially against jihadists.
    We kept hearing that Hizbullah fighters were professional, their missiles plentiful, Tel Aviv's towers were vulnerable, and weeks-long electrical outages were possible. Then Israel changed everything. And no, my delicate friends warning that violence begets more violence, you're wrong. These attacks were as surgical as it gets in warfare against jihadi maniacs who cower behind civilians. Israel has degraded Hizbullah and demeaned its Iranian paymasters.
    I haven't heard any Americans regret their advice to slow down, avoid conflict, and try to appease Hizbullah. Similarly, having seen the IDF overrun Hamas in Rafah with limited civilian casualties, few Americans admitted they were wrong for constantly trying to restrain Israel. Such stubbornness amuses me as an Israeli, because we won anyway. But it terrifies me as an American historian. The unwillingness of people in power to acknowledge mistakes prevents them from learning from them.
    The writer, a Distinguished Scholar of North American History at McGill University, is a Senior Fellow in Zionist Thought at the Jewish People Policy Institute.  (Jerusalem Post)

The Syrian Rebels' Lessons for Washington - Walter Russell Mead
The embers of the long-smoldering rebellion against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's murderous regime have burst into flames. With Assad's Hizbullah allies decimated, his Russian backers stretched in Ukraine, and his Iranian paymasters reeling under Israel's hammer blows, the rebel forces smelled weakness, and they came down from the hills. While nobody knows how this ends, there are important lessons here.
    Assad's defeats aren't all good news for Jerusalem. The strongest of the rebel groups around Aleppo are forces formerly linked to al-Qaeda and separate factions supported by Turkey's Islamist-leaning President Erdogan. An Islamist Syria under Turkish protection could be an even more dangerous neighbor for Israel than Assad's Syria has been.
    Another lesson is that Israel is an excellent ally, and the U.S. benefits when we support it. Overall, the Biden administration has given Israel the weapons it needed to prevail in Gaza and Lebanon. As a result, a weakened Iran is ready to offer more concessions to both Israel and the U.S. than it was a year ago. The superiority of American weaponry over Russian gear has been convincingly demonstrated. All this was accomplished without the loss of American lives and without American boots on the ground.
    Even greater support would likely have brought more good results, as a genuinely coordinated Israeli-American diplomatic strategy for the region could have done more to solidify the Middle East security structure both Washington and Jerusalem want.
    The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College.  (Wall Street Journal)

The Rebel Offensive in Syria: Risks and Implications for Israel - Carmit Valensi et al.
From an Israeli perspective, the still-evolving events in Syria have both negative and positive elements. On the positive side, the Assad regime has been hit hard, and its overthrow would be a significant blow to Iran and its proxies.
    Iran would be compelled to withdraw its forces from Syria, while the direct route for rebuilding Hizbullah's strength, by smuggling weapons from Iran and Syria to Lebanon, would be blocked. An anti-Iranian regime in Damascus would also pose a direct threat to the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and would force Tehran to focus on its own direct security, at the expense of attacking Israel.
    However, more concerning is the possibility that jihadist factions could take control of massive stockpiles of weapons, including chemical weapons, thereby posing a serious threat to Israeli interests. (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
    See also Success for Syria's Rebels Is Far from Guaranteed - Jonathan Spyer (Spectator-UK)

Iran Is Sending Regional Fighters to Syria - Susannah George
Iran has deployed members of Hizbullah and Iraq's Shiite militias to Syria to help prop up President Bashar al-Assad and hold back a sudden advance by Islamist rebels who have taken over the city of Aleppo. Syria is one of Tehran's closest allies, home to vital supply lines that allow it to send money, arms and advisers to Hizbullah.
    "Iran has been there for us," said a member of Hizbullah. "We are allies and will always be," he added, dismissing concerns that Hizbullah is too weak to join the fight in Syria. Hizbullah fighters have largely deployed across Lebanon's border toward the cities of Hama and Homs.
    The Iranian government has not committed to deploying its own soldiers, relying for now on military advisers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) embedded throughout the country. Israel has launched a series of successful strikes in recent months targeting IRGC advisers in Syria. (Washington Post)

Syrian Rebel Commander Tells i24News: "We Are Fighting a Common Enemy" - Matthias Inbar
One of the commanders of rebel forces in Aleppo, Abu Abdo, told i24News in an interview on Wednesday: "We are fighting against a common enemy." He said that Iran and its proxies, including Hizbullah and the Assad regime, are "dreaming of returning to the glory days of the historical Persian Empire, but it won't happen if we all face them."
    A member of the former Free Syrian Army, now dubbed the Syrian National Army, he said, "We look at Israel and the U.S., with the arrival of President Donald Trump, and we have a lot of respect and sympathy for them, for their actions against Iran - the country that leads terrorism in the region and all over the world." (i24News)

IDF Eliminates Hamas Terrorists in Northern Gaza - Ron Ben-Yishai
The Givati Brigade has been fighting in Gaza for over a year, beginning on Oct. 7. Its command center is now in an abandoned building in Jabalia, where screens display real-time updates of troop positions, enemy movements, and live feeds from surveillance systems.
    Brigade commander Col. Liron Batito explains, "Now the terrorists are waging urban guerrilla warfare against us, mostly in small groups of two or three. But when we entered here, there were thousands. We've eliminated 1,000 and captured another 1,000, but a few hundred remain. Most are fanatics, Islamist jihadists....They won't surrender." Givati commanders have recently observed that Hamas operatives are facing a growing shortage of ammunition.
    The IDF is now operating in what commanders describe as the "third phase" of combat: swift raids by small detachments targeting terrorists identified through intelligence and eliminating those attempting to approach Israeli forces.
    We stop about 100 meters behind the Tzabar Battalion's forward unit, which had encountered terrorists. Battalion commander Lt.-Col. Matan Elgraby says, "We'll eliminate them shortly with an airstrike." This means an Air Force fighter jet will deliver precision munitions to destroy the building housing the terrorists. "Why risk soldiers when one bomb can achieve the goal?" Elgraby says. "I move slowly and act cautiously to minimize casualties among my men."
    "The public should understand the fighting is slow because we are uprooting terrorist cells in an urban area, much of which had been leveled, where terrorists move stealthily from house to house. It may take another week or another month, but Jabalia will fall....Anyone who saw what we did [on Oct. 7] won't forget and will fight to the end to ensure it never happens again."  (Ynet News)

Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to U.S. Pressure - Patrick Clawson
After years of misguided policies, Iran is in the throes of a serious domestic energy crisis complete with rolling blackouts, empty gasoline pumps, and shortages of natural gas for home heating. A recently leaked report from Iran's National Supreme Energy Council showed that the country's power plants were able to produce only 75% of their nominal peak capacity. Blackouts for two hours per day have been announced in major cities.
    Former oil CEO Abbas Kazemi offered a glaring example of the problems in the government's energy policies: "Instead of stockpiling diesel for winter, the Abadan Refinery sold 400 to 500 million liters meant for power plants."
    Regime mismanagement makes it vulnerable to U.S. pressure to discourage the sale of oil products to Iran. In 2010, an overwhelming bipartisan majority in Congress forced an unenthusiastic Obama administration to levy sanctions on companies and governments for "providing goods or services that could directly and significantly contribute to the enhancement of Iran's ability to import refined petroleum products, including insurance or reinsurance services; financing or brokering services; or ships and shipping services."
    Enforcing sanctions on Iran's gasoline imports is less diplomatically fraught than sanctioning its oil exports, most of which go to China. The most active sources of oil products for Iran are the UAE, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Pressing companies and officials in these jurisdictions could give Washington a particularly effective way to press Tehran.
    The writer directs the Program on Iran and U.S. Policy at The Washington Institute.  (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

Understanding Abbas's Decision to Appoint Rawhi Fattouh as His Successor - Lt.-Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch
The decision of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, 89, to issue a "constitutional declaration" appointing Rawhi Fattouh, the Chairman of the Palestinian National Council (PNC), to "temporarily serve as PA President pending the holding of presidential elections," signifies, in essence, the final nail in the coffin of the Palestinian Authority.
    It is the latest in a series of decisions made by Abbas over the last six years, all intended to replace the PA bodies with those of the Palestine Liberation Organization, over which Abbas and his Fatah party have complete dominance.
    Abbas' choice of Fattouh as his interim replacement was not a positive appointment of a successor, but rather a function of Abbas finally imposing the PLO on the PA after he had dismantled the PA's electoral and governing mechanisms, as designated by the Oslo Accords, and replaced them with the PLO.
    The writer, Director of the Palestinian Authority Accountability Initiative at the Jerusalem Center, was director of the Military Prosecution in Judea and Samaria.  (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)

The British Government Must Clearly Reject the ICC Ruling - Editorial
The capture of international organizations by ideologies that see the Jews, through their homeland, as being the main cause of the world's troubles has been so thorough that it would have been more of a shock if the ICC had not issued the arrest warrants for the prime minister and former defense minister of Israel. The court has behaved not as a legal but as a political institution, demanding that its view supersede the security decisions and policies of a democratically-elected government. (Jewish Chronicle-UK)

Arabs No Longer Buying the Lies of Hamas, Hizbullah - Bassam Tawil
After the recent ceasefire deal with Israel, supporters of Hizbullah claimed "victory." This declaration is similar to that of Hamas, when after earlier rounds of fighting its commanders would typically emerge from the debris and proclaim "victory." Even now, Hamas continues to pretend that it is winning the war.
    After Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal announced Hamas's victory in the Gaza war, Egyptian political analyst Abdul Latif Al-Manawi wrote in Al Arabiya on Oct. 10, 2024: "Is this how Mashaal sums up a whole year of devastation inflicted on the Palestinian people?...Victory, Khaled Mashaal, is not like this....Victory is not bringing back the era of illusory speeches and false victories."
    Hizbullah leaders said they would stop their rocket and drone attacks against Israel only if it ended the war against Hamas in Gaza. Yet in the ceasefire agreement, reached on Nov. 27, Hizbullah agreed to disconnect itself from the war in Gaza and to withdraw its men from the border with Israel. This reversal is precisely why many Arabs cannot understand Hizbullah's claim of "victory," especially in light of the elimination of most of the group's top political and military leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah.
    Many Arabs are no longer fooled by the lies and propaganda of Iran's terror proxies. Over the past 14 months, Hamas and Hizbullah have dragged the Palestinians and Lebanese into wars that have claimed the lives of thousands of people - all to serve their patrons in Iran. The terrorists are continuing to sell imaginary victories to the Arabs to encourage them to join the Jihad (holy war) against Israel. (Gatestone Institute)

The Gentle Art of Negotiating with Terrorists - Daniel Greenfield
The first rule of negotiating with Islamic terrorists is don't. The second rule is if you do it, do it with heavy artillery. Islamic terrorists don't negotiate. They make demands in hopes of securing concessions without actually giving up anything. It is hard to find an example of a negotiation process during which the Islamic terrorists made an actual concession, followed through on it, and did not later take it back or turn right around and go back to terrorism.
    The most prominent counterexamples are the three decades of negotiations between Israel and Islamic terrorist groups, which initially won a round of Nobel Peace Prizes and then degenerated into an endless war during which the terrorists took back every concession they ever made, did not follow through on any of them, and used Israeli concessions to become a much worse threat. Negotiating with the Taliban, Hizbullah and Iran all had the same end result.
    Offering to negotiate with Islamic terrorists is a statement of weakness. Jihadists only offer to negotiate out of fear, weakness or to entrap us, and they assume we do the same thing. Nothing would ever convince them that we genuinely want to live in peace with them, or that we prefer alternatives to violence. So any time we offer to negotiate, they see it as weakness or a trick. (Gatestone Institute)

Amnesty International Accuses Israel of Genocide
The deplorable and fanatical organization Amnesty International has once again produced a fabricated report that is entirely false and based on lies. The genocidal massacre on Oct. 7, 2023, was carried out by the Hamas terrorist organization against Israeli citizens. Since then, Israeli citizens have been subjected to daily attacks from seven different fronts.
    Israel is defending itself against these attacks acting fully in accordance with international law. This photo of a child's bedroom on Oct. 7 tells you everything you need to know about Amnesty's report. (Israel Foreign Ministry)
    See also Amnesty Israel Rejects Amnesty International's Report Accusing Israel of Genocide - Michael Starr
Amnesty International's Israel section rejected the findings of Amnesty International's Thursday report accusing Israel of committing genocide during the war against Hamas in Gaza. The Israeli association said it was not involved in any way with the report and argued that the allegation of genocide had not been "sufficiently substantiated." (Jerusalem Post)

Scottish School Textbook Teaches that Israel Is "Apartheid, Colonial Regime" - Jane Prinsley
Classroom materials published by the largest teachers' union in Scotland are riddled with hostile depictions of Israel, a Jewish Chronicle investigation has revealed. One resource promoted by a Scottish local authority accuses Israel's "apartheid and settler colonial regime" of "genocide."
    In recent years, Jewish schoolchildren in Scotland have reportedly faced a wave of antisemitic attacks and bullying over their perceived connection to Israel, forcing many families to consider leaving the country. Distraught parents of Jewish pupils who have suffered attacks and verbal abuse said many had moved their children to different schools, while others were looking to move to Israel.
    Edinburgh mother-of-two Elisheva Abramson said, "I don't want to be part of a society that doesn't consider us worth protecting." (Jewish Chronicle-UK)

Observations:

Iran is discovering a reality: there is no military way to stop Israel. The freedom of action guaranteed to Israel in the event of Hizbullah moving south or resuming its efforts to rearm, the significant involvement of the U.S., as well as the transition to the Trump era in the White House, which promises political backing and a continuous supply of arms, and above all, the strength of the blows Hizbullah has suffered, including the elimination of Nasrallah and the severing of the connection between Lebanon and Gaza - all place Israel in a much-improved position compared to before October 7, 2023.

It will be difficult for Hizbullah to rebuild its infrastructure in southern Lebanon and its leadership across Lebanon. Its ability to rebuild its arsenal may also be limited, depending on Israel's response.

The agreement allows Israel to prepare for a united struggle with the Trump administration against the Iranian threat, with Iran's two main proxies severely damaged and its power limitations demonstrated.

It will improve Israel's bargaining position against Hamas, which will lose Hizbullah's backing, and give Israel freedom of action against Hizbullah beyond what is permitted by the UN Charter in the context of self-defense (Article 51), which does not allow action against a mere buildup of the enemy.

The real test will be in Israel's response when a Hizbullah violation is discovered. If the response is not only targeted and proportional, but aims to create a new reality in southern Lebanon and the entire Lebanese state, then it will reflect the lessons of October 7.

The writer, Director, National Security and Middle East Affairs at the Jerusalem Center, is former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Division. This article originally appeared in Hebrew on N12 on Nov. 28, 2024.

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