| DAILY ALERT |
Sunday, October 6, 2024 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
U.S. officials say Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is determined to see Israel embroiled in a wider regional conflict. According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Sinwar has long believed he will not survive the war, a view that has hindered negotiations to secure the release of hostages seized by his group on Oct. 7. His attitude has hardened in recent weeks, U.S. officials say, and American negotiators now believe that Hamas has no intention of reaching a deal with Israel. Hamas has shown no desire at all to engage in talks in recent weeks, U.S. officials say. In Sinwar's assessment, a larger war that puts pressure on Israel would force it to scale back operations in Gaza, the U.S. officials said. The war in the region has widened, but not in ways that have meaningfully benefited Hamas. The failure of Hizbullah or Iran to meaningfully damage Israel is a telling sign of Sinwar's miscalculation, American officials said. A senior U.S. official said Iran's actions over the past few months had sent a clear message to Sinwar: "The cavalry is not coming." (New York Times) The U.S. Central Command said Friday it struck 15 Houthi targets in Yemen, including "Houthi offensive military capabilities," in an effort to secure international waterways. Houthi-affiliated al-Masirah TV reported four strikes on Sanaa, the capital, seven on the port city of Hodeidah and at least one strike on Dhamar, south of the capital. (New York Times) The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Thursday that Fawzia Amin Sido, 21, was freed from Gaza where she had been held captive by Hamas for years after being trafficked by ISIS. Fawzia told CNN she had been returned to Iraq with the help of the U.S. She was initially kidnapped by ISIS as a child in 2014. She said life in Gaza was "unbearable." "Hamas constantly harassed me due to my Yazidi background," she said. (CNN) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Two Israeli soldiers were killed and 24 were wounded in a drone attack by an Iran-backed militia in Iraq Thursday morning, the IDF announced on Friday. Two explosive-laden drones were launched from Iraq, one of which was shot down, and the second impacted an army base in the northern Golan Heights. (Times of Israel) Six IDF commandos from the elite Egoz unit were killed in intense combat in southern Lebanon early Wednesday when met with heavy fire from small arms, anti-tank missiles and mortars. In heavy fog and total darkness, at least 30 Hizbullah fighters were killed. 30 Israeli soldiers were wounded in the incident, with several continuing to fight despite their injuries. (Ynet News) More than 250 Hizbullah operatives have been killed during Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon since last week's ground offensive began, the IDF said Friday. The Israeli toll in the ground offensive against Hizbullah stands at nine. More than half a million Lebanese civilians have fled southern Lebanon following IDF evacuation warnings. IDF troops have mostly come under anti-tank missile fire and mortar attacks, though there have also been several close-quarters engagements. Meanwhile, 180 rockets were fired from Lebanon in barrages targeting northern Israel on Friday. Many of the rockets were shot down by air defenses, and the remainder struck open areas. There were no reports of injuries or major damage in the attacks. (Times of Israel) See also IDF Finds Large Amounts of Weapons, Munitions in South Lebanon Villages - Yoav Zitun (Ynet News) See also 440 Hizbullah Gunmen Killed in IDF Offensive by Saturday - Emanuel Fabian (Times of Israel) An Israeli fighter jet struck the West Bank city of Tulkarm Thursday night, targeting Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, a top Hamas commander, along with other Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives. Hamas confirmed Oufi was a commander and also named seven other members who were killed. The IDF said Oufi was planning a major terror attack on the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 onslaught and described him as a "ticking time bomb." Oufi planned and led an attempted car bombing attack near the community of Ateret last month. He also provided weapons to other terror operatives who carried out numerous attacks in the West Bank and in Israel recently. Another of those killed in the airstrike was Ghaith Radwan, a top commander in Islamic Jihad. (Times of Israel) See also IDF: 12 Terrorists Eliminated in Tulkarm Airstrike - Yoav Zitun The IDF reported Saturday that at least 12 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists were killed in airstrikes in the West Bank city of Tulkarm Thursday night. "All of the terrorists were involved in the manufacturing of explosives and supporting terrorist activities against Israeli civilians," the IDF said. (Ynet News) The IDF clarified on Saturday that the Iranians launched 201 missiles at Israel on Tuesday, some of which impacted targets. The IDF plans to respond significantly. (Jerusalem Post) See also CENTCOM Chief to Arrive in Israel, Help Coordinate Response to Iran - Nadav Eyal Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), will soon arrive in Israel to coordinate the response to the Iranian missile attack. (Ynet News) Sky News Arabia reported on Saturday, citing Israeli security sources, that Hashem Safieddine - the head of Hizbullah's Executive Council and identified as the potential successor to Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah - was killed in an airstrike in Beirut Thursday night. The Saudi Al-Hadath channel also reported Safieddine's death, along with several newly appointed Hizbullah commanders and Iranian advisors. (Ha'aretz) See also Iran Revolutionary Guards Quds Force Commander Believed Killed in Beirut - Abul Taher Esmail Qaani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, was reported to be with the new leader of Hizbullah, Hashem Safieddine, who was targeted in his bunker in Beirut by the Israelis on Thursday night. (Mail on Sunday-UK) Aziz Salha, one of the perpetrators of the Ramallah lynching in 2000, was killed in an Israel Air Force strike in central Gaza, the IDF reported on Thursday. Salha became famous for waving his hands out the window that were covered in the blood of two IDF reserve soldiers that he and other perpetrators had murdered. IDF reservists Vadim Norzhich and Yosef Avrahami were lynched by a Palestinian mob while detained at the el-Bireh police station in Ramallah after accidentally entering the city controlled by the Palestinian Authority. Salha was arrested in 2001, but was released as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange deal in 2011 and deported to Gaza. (Jerusalem Post) Israeli fighter jets eliminated Hizbullah commander Khider al-Shaebia, who orchestrated the July rocket attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 children and teenagers, the IDF announced Thursday. Al-Shaebia also oversaw hundreds of rocket and anti-tank missile launches targeting IDF positions. (Ynet News) Israel Air Force fighter jets struck a 3.5-km.-long underground tunnel on Thursday, which crossed from Lebanon into Syria and was used for smuggling and storing large quantities of weapons, the IDF reported Friday. (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Hizbullah Two years ago, the new line of Apollo pagers seemed precisely suited to the needs of Hizbullah. The AR924 pager was rugged, built to survive battlefield conditions. It boasted a waterproof Taiwanese design and an oversized battery that could operate for months without charging. Best of all, there was no risk that the pagers could ever be tracked by Israel's intelligence services. Hizbullah's leaders bought 5,000 of them and began handing them out to mid-level fighters and support personnel in February. None suspected they were wearing an ingeniously-crafted Israeli bomb. As many as 3,000 Hizbullah officers and members were killed or maimed when Israel's Mossad triggered the devices remotely on Sept. 17. The first part of the plan, booby-trapped walkie-talkies, began being inserted into Lebanon by Mossad in 2015. The mobile two-way radios contained oversized battery packs, a hidden explosive and a transmission system that gave Israel complete access to Hizbullah communications. For nine years, the Israelis eavesdropped on Hizbullah, while reserving the option to turn the walkie-talkies into bombs in the future. The idea for the pager operation originated in 2022. In 2023, Hizbullah began receiving solicitations for the bulk purchase of Taiwanese-branded Apollo pagers, a well-recognized trademark with no discernible links to Israeli or Jewish interests. The Taiwanese company had no knowledge of the plan. The sales pitch came from a marketing official trusted by Hizbullah, a former Middle East sales representative for the Taiwanese firm who had established her own company. The actual production of the devices was outsourced and the marketing official was unaware that the pagers were physically assembled in Israel under Mossad oversight. The bomb component was so carefully hidden as to be virtually undetectable, even if the device was taken apart. The device used a special two-step procedure required for viewing secure messages that had been encrypted. The procedure ensured that most users would be holding the pager with both hands when it detonated. On Sept. 17, thousands of pagers rang or vibrated at once, all across Lebanon and Syria. A short sentence in Arabic appeared on the screen: "You received an encrypted message." Hizbullah operatives dutifully followed the instructions for checking coded messages, pressing two buttons, triggering explosions. Less than a minute later, thousands of other pagers exploded by remote command. The following day, hundreds of walkie-talkies blew up in the same way. (Washington Post) For more than a decade, U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East, has been working with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to bolster its ability to recover control of the nation's borders, should Hizbullah's grip ever weaken. That moment appears to have arrived. Israel's decapitation of Hizbullah has created a security vacuum in Lebanon. For the first time in a generation, there's a real chance that the LAF takes control of the nation's security and its borders, with proper assistance. But to help Lebanon regain sovereignty, the Biden administration will have to move quickly and decisively while Hizbullah is still in disarray. (Washington Post) Iran Iran's second ballistic missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1 stood out for its large scope and limited impact, analysts say. A Washington Post analysis shows that at least two dozen of the missiles made it through Israeli defenses, causing damage, but reports of critical damage on the ground have been limited. Evidence suggests that Iran used its highest-grade munitions, its quickest-to-launch and fastest-traveling missiles, and a larger number of launchers than experts knew the country had. Analyzing the extent of Iran's missile capabilities, and Israel's ability to intercept or withstand them, some experts call into question the value of Tehran's enormous missile arsenal, which U.S. officials have estimated to be the largest in the Middle East. Afshon Ostovar, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in California, said Tehran "cannot win this fight with ballistic missile strikes against Israel. Israel doesn't need to fire 180 weapons to hit Iran. It can fire 10 weapons and hit Iran more effectively." (Washington Post) Iran's religious leadership is devoted to exporting its fundamentalist ideology, driven by the pursuit of hegemony and captivated by the thought of its opponents' violent subjugation. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has established around Israel a "ring of fire" of terrorist armies with capabilities comparable with those of nations. They have tens of thousands of rockets, drones and commando forces ready for attack. Furthermore, Iran continues to rush to acquire nuclear capabilities, covertly and overtly. Make no mistake: Iran is preparing, building and waiting for the right moment of weakness to pounce. It did so in Lebanon, using Hizbullah. It did the same in Syria, amid the havoc of Syria's civil war. It did so in Yemen as well. In a post-Oct. 7 reality, it is clear that Israel must - and the world should - be proactive and determined in the face of the threat the Iranian regime poses to Israel's existence and the region's future. On the military front: Governments must engage forcefully and proactively with Iranian aggression and systematically degrade its proxy capabilities. We must also prepare for the right moment to remove the threat of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. The time to act against Iran is now. It's not only a matter of necessity for Israel but also one of strategic imperative for the region and moral clarity for the world. The writer, former Israeli defense minister and IDF chief of staff, is chairman of the opposition National Unity Party. (New York Times) The Oct. 7 Massacre Shari Mendes, 63, an architect, switched on her phone on Oct. 7 to find an emergency call-up order. She had never done military service because she was born and brought up in the U.S., only moving to Israel in 2003 to raise her family. A few years ago, however, she had been approached to be part of a small, all-female unit which would help take care of the bodies of women soldiers in the event of a mass casualty event. In the Jewish tradition, it is women who prepare female bodies for burial. As more young women were seeing frontline service, the army thought it was a necessary precaution. That night, Shari drove to the Shura army base and joined her unit. "There were refrigerator trucks lining up as far as you could see. There's this massive intake area like an airport hangar and it was packed with bodies, body bags stacked one on top of each other right up the walls. Hundreds of bodies. The smell was incomprehensible....There was blood on the floor, so much blood." "Most of the people in my unit have no medical background. We're normal people, like secretaries or lawyers or retail workers, whatever. And suddenly there we were dealing with things that no one ever thought you could deal with." The women were shot many times in the head. "Why? Why? We saw that these women were shot to be killed, maybe in the heart, in the head, but then they were shot many times in the face, and it looked like systematic mutilation because it seemed like they wanted to ruin these women's faces." "A lot of them were young soldier women, and a lot of them had been very beautiful. The first few we saw weren't too bad because they might have been caught in their sleep and Hamas just shot them. But, after a while, we got women who had clearly been awake when they were murdered and these women came in and their mouths, their teeth were in grimaces and their hands were clenched, if they had hands." "We got notified that a woman's coming in and she has no legs, so the terrorist cut off her legs. There was clearly immense sadistic violence." A lot of the women had bloody, stained underwear, Shari says, some had no underwear at all. "People were shot in the breast, they were shot in the crotch, and that was not done to kill them." One body Shari dealt with personally still had a knife stuck through her mouth. Of all the young women whose bodies she took care of and prepared for burial, how many were in a fit state to be shown to their parents? "None," Shari says. "Not one girl we could show to her parents." (Telegraph-UK) Tomorrow will mark one year since the Oct. 7 massacre. Time should be taken to remember why Israel is fighting. A year ago, 1,200 people were murdered, and 251 hostages kidnapped by terrorists who had devoted themselves to the calculated destruction of a nation and people. No country could tolerate the outrages perpetrated against Israel on a monthly basis, the barrages of rockets fired indiscriminately against civilian targets by Iran's proxies. That Israel has managed to minimize casualties through its development of its own defenses does not in any way lessen the repugnance we should feel at the actions of these terrorists. They are intended to wound and kill, and it is only through the ingenuity of the Israeli people that they do not more often succeed in doing so. That so many in the West have lost sight of these fundamental truths brings shame upon us all. Too many politicians are desperate to pressure Israel into a ceasefire that will not bring the conflict to an end, but will merely give Hamas and its allies a chance to rearm. As we remember the dead of Oct. 7, we should remember too why Israel is fighting. And we should remember why we owe it our support. (Telegraph-UK) Israel and the West There's the real world in which there are bullies, aggressors and perpetrators - and the proper response to them. And then there's the fake world in which right and wrong and life and death don't seem to exist, in which the victim is blamed for angering, and then responding to, the bully. In which the bully becomes the victim as soon as anyone tries to stop them. In which mendacious respectability requires the condemnation of war, escalation, and the inflammation of tensions. In which anything is better than making the bully more angry. In which appeasement is the emotional and political order of the day. In which winning is taboo. In which the "international community" and dubious "international law" are weaponized against the good guys. Israel is the real world. It alone among Western nations is awake. It is fighting a multi-pronged war with its Iran-funded enemies, and it is a war waged to be won. Israel is busy fighting a battle whose outcome could determine the fate of the entire world, in the West and beyond. Israel knows it is facing an existential threat. We don't seem to, even though it is staring us in the face. Iran, in cahoots with other Islamist territories, plus Russia and China, could well take us all down - and would stand a much greater chance of doing so if Israel was behaving with less warlike courage, clarity of mission, ingenuity and persistence. (Telegraph-UK) Observations: The Year American Jews Woke Up - Bret Stephens (New York Times)
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