Thursday,
November 7, 2024

News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:

For U.S. Officials, Lebanon May Be a Problem Too Big to Solve - Michael Crowley
With faint hopes for ending the war in Gaza, U.S. officials have turned their focus to Lebanon to strike a ceasefire deal. So far, however, U.S. diplomacy has failed to stabilize the situation.
    Some senior U.S. officials have called Israel's campaign against Hizbullah an opportunity to reshape the politics of Beirut and stand up a stronger Lebanese government, reducing the influence of Hizbullah and its sponsor, Iran. An empowered Lebanese Army with strong government backing is the only way to keep Hizbullah from reconstituting along Israel's border and avoid further Israeli military action, officials and analysts say.
    To some, it is a fanciful goal. While Hizbullah is clearly weakened and Iran may feel intimidated by Israel's recent displays of military prowess, both retain influence that they are unlikely to surrender easily. U.S. officials are trying to find some way of assuring Israel that Hizbullah will not simply regroup after the current fighting ends.
    Amos Hochstein, a senior White House aide who serves as President Biden's point man for Lebanon, said the aftermath of this conflict "must be entirely different. Lebanon can be secure and prosperous and free. That is an attainable goal but will require international community support."
    Matthew Levitt, an expert on Hizbullah at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he expected that "Hizbullah is going to fight for their position in Lebanon....I just don't have faith that the government of Lebanon is going to get its stuff together and stand up to the militants. I think the Biden administration understands the limits of trying to move the chess pieces in Lebanon."  (New York Times)

Sweden Charges 3 over Explosives Planted at Israeli Firm
Three Swedes who planted an explosive device at the offices of Elbit Systems Sweden in Gothenburg likely acted on behalf of "someone else," prosecutors said on Wednesday. On June 3, Swedish police announced that an unexploded bomb was discovered outside Elbit's office. A day later, security forces detected two suspicious individuals outside Elbit's premises who were carrying an explosive charge. The third suspect stands accused of storing the explosive devices in his home.
    On Oct. 10, a suspected terrorist opened fire at the Elbit office. Last month, the Swedish intelligence agency SAPO said that Iran may have orchestrated recent terrorist attacks on Israeli targets in the country. In May, the agency confirmed that Tehran was recruiting members of Swedish criminal gangs to commit "acts of violence" against Israelis. (JNS)

Iran's Currency Falls to All-Time Low - Amir Vahdat
Iran's currency fell on Wednesday to an all-time low, trading at 703,000 rials to the dollar. In 2015, at the time of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers, the rial was at 32,000 to $1. On July 30, the rate was 584,000 to $1. (AP-Washington Post)

News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

IDF Officer Says Humanitarian Convoys Enter Gaza Daily, Denies Troops Use Gazans as Human Shields - Lazar Berman
"The reports that the Gazan population doesn't receive food and all sorts of things are simply not true," said Lt.-Col. Dori, 47, the operations officer of the 14th Reserve Armored Brigade, which recently concluded an operation in Bureij in central Gaza.
    "With my own eyes, I saw humanitarian convoys go in almost every day," with the exception of days when operational reasons precluded this. "But the next day, the amount is made up. If there is any reason food doesn't reach civilians, it's because of Hamas looters that don't allow their civilians to reach it or don't distribute it." He said he saw Hamas gunmen steal aid: "They wait for trucks to come, raid them and loot them."
    Dori also denied allegations that IDF troops were using Gazans as human shields during operations. "Unequivocally, no," Dori said. "We didn't do that, we didn't see that, we certainly didn't instruct anyone to do that. I didn't come across anything like that or hear about anything like that."  (Times of Israel)

Israeli Civilian Killed in Hizbullah Rocket Strike - Yair Kraus
Sivan Sadeh, 18, was fatally wounded by shrapnel during a rocket attack from Lebanon on Wednesday in an agricultural field of Kibbutz Kfar Masaryk in western Galilee. (Ynet News)
    See also IDF Soldier Killed by Hizbullah Rocket in Northern Israel - Yoav Zitun
Sgt. Ariel Sosnov, 20, was killed by a Hizbullah rocket that struck Moshav Avivim in northern Israel on Wednesday. (Ynet News)

Two Israelis Hurt in Ramming and Stabbing Attack in Samaria - Emanuel Fabian
Two civilians were injured on Wednesday in a car-ramming and stabbing attack near the Israeli community of Shiloh in Samaria. The Palestinian attacker crashed his car into a bus stop at Shiloh Junction and got out of the car with a knife, before being shot dead by an armed civilian. (Times of Israel)

Israel Offers $5 Million and Safe Passage for Release of Hamas Hostages - Itamar Eichner
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday offered $5 million for the release of each hostage held by Hamas, along with safe passage for the captors to a third country. (Ynet News)

Hizbullah Rocket Lands in Ben-Gurion Airport Parking Lot
The IDF Spokesperson reported Wednesday that a volley of 10 rockets were launched from Lebanon at central Israel, with some being intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. One rocket fell inside a Ben-Gurion Airport parking lot without injuries. Shrapnel from the attack landed in a parked car in Ra'anana. (Ynet News)
    See also Israeli Missiles Explode next to Beirut Airport - Neil Johnston
The IDF fired up to three missiles at a building linked to Hizbullah located between two runways at Beirut airport early Thursday. (Telegraph-UK)

Over 200 Gazans Evacuated via Israel for Medical Care - Jeremy Sharon
231 Gazans, both patients and their caregivers, were evacuated to the UAE and Romania on Wednesday for medical treatment, Israel's COGAT civil affairs unit said. The operation was carried out in cooperation with the EU and the World Health Organization. The patients were transferred into Israel via the Kerem Shalom crossing, and then to Ramon Airport near Eilat. (Times of Israel)

IDF Arrests PFLP Operatives in West Bank
Over 60 operatives from the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine terror group have been arrested in the West Bank and Lebanon, the IDF and Israel Security Agency announced Tuesday.
    Also Tuesday, at least seven people were killed during an Israel Defense Forces raid and airstrikes in the northern West Bank, including five in Qabatiya and two in nearby Tammun. (Times of Israel)

Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

IDF Shifts Tactics in Gaza Offensive, Causing Higher Hamas Casualties with Fewer Munitions - Yoav Zitun
Some 1,000 Hamas terrorists have been killed since the IDF's latest operation in Jabalya in northern Gaza began over a month and a half ago. The IDF estimates that 500-600 terrorists remain entrenched in the area, with some blending into the civilian population still present. Of the 70,000 Palestinians originally in the region, the IDF has managed to evacuate 55,000 southward.
    Since the beginning of the operation, IDF forces have discovered over 200 booby-trapped buildings. In two incidents, explosives were triggered inside homes, killing six soldiers.
    IDF ground forces have been developing new tactics. "Instead of firing missiles from a Hermes 450 drone, we've killed dozens of terrorists using Iron Ball, a drone that drops simple fragmentation grenades on terrorists and tunnel shafts," said Lt.-Col. Y., commander of the Multidimensional Unit. "Now, IDF brigades are using Iron Ball in southern Lebanon as well."
    In recent days, the unit also eliminated 10 terrorists hiding in a building using two precision mortar bombs. "These mortars are cheaper and more available than fighter jet bombs." (Ynet News)

The Future of Hamas and the War in Gaza after the Death of Sinwar - Lt.-Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Bartal
An analysis of articles published on Hamas websites and in secret seized protocols shows that the main goal of its Oct. 7 Al-Aqsa Flood attack was to prevent a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is a distinct Iranian interest.
    Yahya Sinwar represented the connection between Hamas and Iran. His survival, as the man who symbolized the Oct. 7 war for Hamas, was in itself an image of victory over Israel. His elimination constitutes a counter-image of Israeli victory, regardless of how the war ends.
    The war Hamas started on Oct. 7 has destroyed Gaza. Hamas is well aware that its support among the Gazan population is at an unprecedented low. The majority of the Palestinian population in the Strip currently believes Hamas's decision to launch the invasion was based on incorrect assumptions and a strategic mistake.
    The writer is a senior researcher at the BESA Center. (BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University)
    See also Palestinian Poll Finds Big Drop in Support for Oct. 7 Attack - Ali Sawafta
A poll conducted in September 2024 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), found that 57% of people surveyed in Gaza said the decision to launch the Oct. 7 offensive was incorrect, while 39% said it was correct, marking the first time that a majority of Gazan respondents judged the decision as incorrect. (Reuters)

Driving through Jabalya in Northern Gaza - Seth J. Frantzman
On Nov. 5, I spent a day with the Israel Defense Forces in Jabalya in northern Gaza, where the IDF has been fighting Hamas for the last month. Much of the area has been impacted from the fighting, with many buildings destroyed or damaged. There are no civilians here and the whole area appears as a kind of deserted urban landscape.
    It's hard to make out where once roads would have been, because so much of the landscape has been changed by fighting and by armored vehicles that have passed through. Much of what remains of the roads are dirt tracks. (Jerusalem Post)

Hizbullah's Massive Underground Combat Sites - Bassam Tawil
Iran-backed Hizbullah spent the past 15 years building a vast network of tunnels in Lebanon as part of its preparations for war with Israel. Some of the tunnels were to be used for invading Israel to carry out atrocities like those committed by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. The funds used to build the tunnels could have alleviated Lebanon's financial crisis, but Hizbullah chose instead to invest in preparing for war and terror attacks against Israel.
    Iran and North Korea helped Hizbullah set up a network of tunnels in Lebanon significantly larger than the Hamas tunnels. The current IDF operation in southern Lebanon foiled Hizbullah's plan to invade Israel. Even if Hizbullah says it will withdraw to north of the Litani River, the tunnels enable it to easily violate that pledge.
    Hizbullah and Hamas bear full responsibility for the death of thousands of Lebanese, Palestinians and Israelis since Oct. 7. The two terrorist groups started the war, at the behest of their patrons in Iran, with the intention of killing a large number of Israelis and eliminating Israel. The vast network of tunnels they built in Lebanon and Gaza are an indication of their determination to pursue their Jihad (holy war) against Israel.
    The current war in Lebanon and Gaza must not end without the destruction of all the tunnels and the total defeat of Hizbullah and Hamas. Those who are pushing for an immediate ceasefire are only empowering Iran and its terror proxies, paving the way for another Oct. 7-style massacre. (Gatestone Institute)

How the Oslo Peace Delusion Led to the Oct. 7 Hamas Massacres - Efraim Karsh
So long as the West Bank and Gaza continue to be governed by the PLO's and Hamas's law of the jungle, there can be no true or lasting reconciliation with Israel, and no Palestinian civil society, let alone a viable state, can develop. The West Bank and Gaza must undergo a profound process of de-radicalization that will sweep the PLO/PA and Hamas from power, eradicate the endemic violence from the Palestinians' political and social life, and teach the virtues of coexistence with their Israeli neighbors.
    The first step in this long and tortuous road is the completion of the ongoing Israeli effort to destroy Hamas's military and civilian stranglehold on Gaza. This may not suffice to jumpstart such a monumental change. But absent this, the region is certain to plunge into ever lower depths.
    The writer is emeritus professor of Middle East and Mediterranean studies at King's College London and former director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University.  (Israel Affairs)

Israel's UNRWA Ban Is Long Overdue - Carrie Filipetti
Failing to hold UNRWA accountable for its actions, including its support for the brutal slaughter of Israeli civilians carried out by some UNRWA officials, puts global humanitarian aid at risk. Accordingly, the U.S. should follow Israel's lead and defund UNRWA, the recipient of $7.3 billion in taxpayer-funded contributions since it was founded. For its entire existence, UNRWA's antisemitic curriculum has brainwashed generations of Palestinians, encouraged a perpetual Palestinian victimhood mentality, and manipulated the international community into funding its perverse ideology.
    The writer is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and former Senior Advisor to Ambassador Nikki Haley at the U.S. Mission to the UN.  (National Interest)

UN Must Stop Protecting Israel's Terror Foes in Gaza and Lebanon - Hillel Neuer
On Oct. 7, 2023, members of the UN organization UNRWA actively took part in the Hamas terrorist massacres in Israel. Last week, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed that the terrorist who commanded the attack that led to the abduction of American-Israeli Hersh Goldberg-Polin and other hostages was an UNRWA employee.
    Meanwhile, in the months since Oct. 7, members of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have provided cover, intentionally or not, for Hizbullah terrorists as they rained down more than 10,000 missiles, drones and rockets on Israeli civilians. The only function UNIFIL performs at this point is to shield Hizbullah's terrorist operation, which continues to threaten Israel from its northern border.
    A top Hamas commander killed in Lebanon turned out to be the principal of an UNRWA school - and the head of the country's UNRWA Teachers Union. A Hamas command room was discovered inside UNRWA headquarters in Gaza. That's why last week, Israeli lawmakers voted overwhelmingly to bar the UN agency for Palestinian refugees and their descendants from operating within Israel, and severely curtailing its activities in Gaza and the West Bank.
    Just like Hamas subverted UNRWA, Hizbullah has subverted UNIFIL. As the IDF uncovers Hizbullah stockpiles of weapons and bunkers in southern Lebanon, their proximity to UNIFIL positions is striking. Under UNIFIL's watch, Iran's terrorist proxy built an arsenal of 150,000 missiles and became far more powerful than Lebanon's own military.
    For UNRWA and UNIFIL to continue operating in their present form is untenable. These organizations must be dismantled - so that Gaza and Lebanon can be freed from the control of violent extremists and their enablers.
    The writer is executive director of United Nations Watch in Geneva.  (New York Post)

Pro-Palestinian Activists Steal Wrong Statue in University Raid - Tim Sigsworth
Palestine Action activists filmed themselves using hammers to smash a glass display case early Saturday at the University of Manchester. They stole two busts, claiming they depicted Chaim Weizmann, the first president of Israel. However, one of the sculptures was of Prof. Harold Dixon, a chemist at the university from 1886 until 1922.
    Social media videos released by Palestine Action showed the busts defaced with red graffiti reading "Smash Zionism" and adorned with keffiyehs. On Tuesday, the group published an image of one of the busts without a head, writing: "First bust of Weizmann is dead. Soon, his Zionist project will be too!" (Telegraph-UK)

Pro-Palestinian Thugs Who Targeted Buildings over Israeli Links Must Be Banned - Catherine Perez-Shakdam
Last Saturday, Palestine Action took to the streets of London to vandalize and deface buildings associated with Jewish businesses and organizations with ties to Israel. These were not random acts; they were deliberate assaults on groups that stand for British-Jewish values, community support, and cultural exchange. This time, Palestine Action trespassed onto private properties, scrawled hateful graffiti, and left behind a trail of damage.
    These actions were acts of intimidation aimed at spreading fear and silence within the Jewish community, going far beyond criticism of Israel's policies and legitimizing violence against an entire community under the guise of "activism." Palestine Action's activities have evolved into a campaign of relentless aggression, harassment, and vandalism aimed at anyone with connections to Israel. This has expanded to encompass organizations and businesses across the UK, including those working to foster mutual understanding and dialogue.
    This is not activism, nor is it legitimate protest. It is coercion, plain and simple. Where does it end if we allow radical ideologues to dictate who can and cannot participate in British society? Free speech does not include the right to intimidate, vandalize, or terrorize. If we allow this, we risk sacrificing not just one community, but the entire social fabric of Britain itself.
    The writer is executive director of We Believe in Israel.  (Daily Express-UK)

Observations:

Following the chain of blows inflicted by Israel on Hizbullah's high command in August and September, its rate of rocket launches on Israel was much lower than expected. More importantly, the quality of those launches - the ability to concentrate barrages of rockets to overcome Israeli air defenses, and the ability to locate and accurately hit targets in Israel - was significantly diminished.

Yet Hizbullah's ground army in southern Lebanon was only slightly damaged. The deployment of the IDF on a very thin strip, in the face of a Hizbullah army that maintains significant military strength, including anti-tank and mortar capabilities, raids and ambushes, exposes the IDF to dangerous enemy initiatives. At least one battle so far, in which almost 50 fighters of the Egoz battalion were injured, illustrated this risk.

To deny the enemy a return to operational equilibrium and to bring about the disintegration of its tactical arrays in the south, it may still be necessary to capture the Hizbullah army in southern Lebanon through rapid divisional moves deep into the south and encircle the enemy based on the river lines (the Litani, Zahrani or Awali rivers) - quickly and aggressively surrounding and squeezing the enemy.

The current Israeli caution stems, at least in part, from an understanding that on the military level, our forces are dangerously vulnerable to enemy capabilities and not effective enough to cleanse the south without sinking into an eternal guerilla war.

At the moment, Israel's strategy strives for the demobilization of South Lebanon by some kind of political agreement, apparently in the spirit of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Yet Israel has bitter experience of the unreliability of such mechanisms.

No one will dismantle Hizbullah in Lebanon for us. If a significant part of its power is preserved, its deterrence of Israel will improve, and Israel will not be able to enforce demilitarization by force. Hizbullah's survival in defeat will simply turn over the hourglass for the next clash with a smarter enemy that is eager to restore its honor.

The writer is former commander of the Dado Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies of the Israel Defense Forces.

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