| DAILY ALERT |
Thursday, August 8, 2024 |
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin said Tuesday: "To maintain our carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, I have ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt later this month. I've also ordered more cruisers and destroyers capable of ballistic missile defense to the region, and I've ordered the deployment of another fighter squadron to the Middle East to reinforce our defensive air support capabilities there." "These posture adjustments add to our already broad range of capabilities in the region, and we remain ready to deploy on short notice to meet evolving threats to our security, our partners, or our interests." (U.S. State Department) See also U.S. Navy Jets Sent to Base in Middle East to Bolster Israel Defense - Lolita C. Baldor Around a dozen F/A-18 Super Hornets from the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier have flown to a military base in the Middle East to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies. A dozen Air Force F-22 fighter jets are en route to the same base from their home station in Alaska. (AP-Military Times) Iran may be rethinking launching a multi-pronged attack on Israel, U.S. officials say. The Biden administration has in recent days warned Iran that a massive strike would risk a direct confrontation between the two countries, two senior U.S. officials said. U.S. officials have sent messages to Tehran that if the blast that killed Haniyeh was caused by a covert Israeli operation and did not kill any Iranian citizens, then Iran should reevaluate its plan to launch a military attack on Israel. The officials said Tehran seems to have recalibrated and the U.S. does not expect an attack on Israel imminently. (Politico) See also Report: Hizbullah Poised to Strike Israel Independent of Iran - Alex Marquardt Hizbullah looks increasingly like it may strike Israel in the coming days independent of whatever Iran may intend to do, two sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN. (CNN) Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) was defeated in a primary Tuesday, becoming the second member of the anti-Israel Squad to be ousted this year. She was defeated by Wesley Bell, the elected lead prosecutor in St. Louis County. Although the Israel-Hamas conflict had barely factored into the primary, a wave of outside spending amplified Bush's vulnerabilities. Bush is the second member of the Squad to lose their primary this year after Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) was defeated in June. (Politico) Asif Merchant, 46, a Pakistani national with ties to Iran, was arrested and charged with plotting to murder current and former U.S. government officials including former president and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, according to charges unsealed Tuesday. U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials including FBI Director Christopher Wray have been investigating numerous threat streams from Iran against politicians and government officials that date back to the killing of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Merchant flew to the U.S. in April, according to court documents, to "recruit individuals to carry out his plot to assassinate U.S. government officials." "People who will be targeted are the ones who are hurting Pakistan and the world, [the] Muslim world," Merchant allegedly said. Law enforcement officials arrested Merchant on July 12 at his residence ahead of a planned trip outside of the U.S. "For years, the Justice Department has been working to aggressively counter Iran's brazen and unrelenting efforts to retaliate against American government officials for the killing of General Soleimani," Attorney General Merrick Garland said Tuesday. "The Justice Department will spare no resource to disrupt and hold accountable those who would carry out Iran's lethal plotting against Americans." (CBS News) Israeli UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan concluded his four-year tenure in a ceremony in Manhattan on Monday organized by Israel's UN delegation and the UJA-Federation of New York. He said, "Many times I have been asked how I can come to work every day in a place where there is so much hatred and hypocrisy against Israel. My answer is simple: It is easy to defend Israel because if you know the truth and believe in it, you hold your head up proudly even in the face of continuous criticism and attacks. I know the good that I represent - the most moral country in the world, Israel." Erdan also warned of the continuing danger to Israel of the Islamic Republic, which together with its proxies "are threatening to attack Israel from every direction," and criticized the UN for ignoring Tehran's stated intentions. "Even today, when Iran openly threatens to 'punish' Israel, the UN is silent. Iran interprets the silence of the world and the UN as giving a green light to attack Israel, which is just like the shameful silence of the world when the Nazis decided at the [1942] Wannsee Conference on the genocide of the Jewish people." (JNS) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Israel is concerned that Hizbullah will attack IDF bases in the center of the country and has made it clear to the U.S. that if Israeli civilians are harmed in the attack, the IDF's response will be disproportionate, senior Israeli officials said Thursday. (Walla-Jerusalem Post) Iran and its proxies have amassed a considerable capability to fire missiles and drones at Israel, but it is expected that their attack will be measured and not very destructive. This assessment is based on the knowledge that if the Israeli home front were badly hit, Israel would be easily able to target at least 30% of Iran's oil industry. Israel will also quite easily destroy Iran's dams, causing not only drought but a shortage of drinking water. Iranian ports, the country's lifeline to the world, are large and more vulnerable than the ports of Haifa and Ashdod. Moreover, not all of Iran's nuclear facilities are underground and its military production sites, including its drone production plants, are known to Israel's intelligence and are also susceptible to attack. In addition, Israel and the U.S. forces have a multi-layer air defense system with a proven ability to intercept incoming threats, as demonstrated during the April Iranian attack on Israel. (Ynet News) If Israel retaliates directly against Iran, it should hit at regime targets and refrain as much as possible from harming the Iranian population. Iran's two key vulnerable points, the island of Kharg and the Bandar Abbas complex of three ports along Iran's southern shores, are very tempting objectives. Some 80% of the oil Iran exports to the world is stored at Kharg, an island smaller than Ben-Gurion Airport. Oil export earnings account for at least 40% of the regime's national expenditures. One can safely assume that Israel Air Force pilots have been training to destroy a part or all of the facility for years. The Bandar Abbas complex accounts for 70% of Iran's container imports. The writer is a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, and professor (emeritus) at Bar-Ilan University. (Jerusalem Post) A Hizbullah drone attack on the Nahariya area in the Western Galilee injured 19 people on Tuesday, one of them critically. (Times of Israel) The IDF said Wednesday that its forces completed operations in the Bani Suheila neighborhood of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza last week, dismantling dozens of sites used for terrorist activity and eliminating more than 70 terrorists. (Ynet News) IDF forces operating in the Balata neighborhood in Nablus in the West Bank located a laboratory for the production of explosive charges, which contained explosives that were ready to be used. IDF engineering forces blew up the laboratory. (Ynet News) The Israel Foreign Ministry will end an arrangement with Norway to assist in the transfer of frozen tax funds earmarked for the Palestinian Authority (PA) that were collected by Israel. The decision comes in response to Norway's recognition of a Palestinian state and its criticism of Israel and the war in Gaza. (Ynet News) Following Nagasaki Mayor Shiro Suzuki's decision to not invite Israel to the annual ceremony commemorating the atomic bombing of the city in 1945, Western ambassadors will boycott the event. U.S. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel personally informed the mayor that if the Israeli ambassador is not invited, he would not come. Instead, Emanuel, together with Israeli Ambassador Gilad Cohen, will attend a memorial ceremony for the Nagasaki victims being held in Tokyo. Ambassadors from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia and Ukraine also will boycott the ceremony in Nagasaki. (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran Where does the money come from that Iran uses to finance its anti-Israel terror? Large-scale oil exports enable it to keep financing its anti-Israel activity, despite the many sanctions imposed on the country since 2019 to stop oil exports. Iran counteracts these sanctions with more than 300 tankers registered in foreign countries, which form a "ghost fleet." These ships turn off navigation and identification systems and use false registration documents. China buys 85%-90% of the approximately 1.5 million barrels per day that Iran exports. From the beginning of President Biden's tenure in January 2021 to December 2023, the ayatollah regime's revenues from oil exports to Beijing totaled $100 billion. It has been written in the Iranian media that thanks to China, Iran has protection against the sanctions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2023 the Iranian economy grew by 4.7%, led by 19% growth in the oil sector. Iranian oil production grew to 3.1 million barrels per day. The writer, vice president for Strategy, Security, and Communications at the Jerusalem Center, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Israel is preparing for a coordinated attack from Iran and its allies that will present the biggest test yet for its multilayered air defense system. Iran has drones and ballistic missiles that Iron Dome isn't designed to stop. And Hizbullah has tens of thousands of mortars, rockets and precision-guided missiles that could threaten to overwhelm the country's defenses. In response, Israel and the U.S. have stitched together a bigger air-defense system to shoot down Iranian projectiles. "It's an entire system that is synchronized and works like a clock," said Yehoshua Kalisky, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Much of it is coordinated through U.S. Central Command. (Wall Street Journal) The Gaza War Hamas announced on August 6 that Yahya Sinwar will replace Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed last week in Tehran, as the chairman of its political bureau. Sinwar's selection symbolizes the victory of the pro-Iranian wing within Hamas's leadership and shifts the movement's decision-making center from abroad to Gaza. By choosing Sinwar, the Hamas leadership secures continued military and financial support from Iran. Sinwar's election also reinforces Hamas's jihadist path aimed at destroying Israel. Senior Israeli security officials believe this move will accelerate efforts to locate Sinwar's hiding place in Gaza and eliminate him as soon as possible. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) U.S.-Israel Relations With Iran and its proxies threatening to launch a massive attack against Israel, the Americans are poised to help defend our skies. But will the U.S. stand behind Israel if it decides to strike preemptively? The indications are by no means encouraging. U.S. policy today is almost unrecognizable from what it was on Oct. 7. In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack, President Biden offered Israel immediate and unlimited support to fulfill its twin goals of rescuing the hostages and destroying Hamas. Biden dismissed Hamas's casualty figures as exaggerated and stressed the difficulties Israel faced in fighting an enemy hiding behind its own civilians. Two months later, much of the initial American position had changed. The administration began claiming that "too many Palestinians had been killed," that Israel was bombing indiscriminately in Gaza, and that its reaction to the Hamas attacks was "over the top." President Biden went from impugning Hamas statistics to citing them repeatedly. Soon, the supply of American munitions to the IDF was delayed. Recent weeks have seen yet another major shift in American policy. No longer seeking the destruction of Hamas or even guaranteeing that it will never be able to launch another Oct. 7, the White House wants to secure the release of the hostages and put an end to the war. These goals are to be achieved at almost any price, including Hamas's survival and Israel's forfeiture of control over the Philadelphi route between Egypt and Gaza. Biden's position stands at odds with the Israeli government's longstanding determination to prevent Hamas from once again smuggling arms from Egypt into Gaza and to eliminate the terrorists as a political and military force. For all its dangers, the present crisis offers a unique opportunity to deter Iran and strengthen the regional alliance against it. America can emerge with its reputation as a reliable ally and formidable superpower restored by staying the course and acting in effective concert with Israel against Iran. The writer is a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. and Deputy Minister for Diplomacy. (Times of Israel) While the Biden administration has been easing sanctions on Iran over the past year, it is using a recent executive order to impose unprecedented sanctions on Jews in Israel who disagree with the administration's policies. The sanctions violate the constitutional rights of U.S. citizens in Israel and their supporters in America. This week an American Christian Zionist nonprofit, Texans for Israel, and several American Jews living in Israel filed a lawsuit in federal court in Texas challenging the sanctions regime on free-speech, due-process and equal-protection grounds. Biden's executive order permits the imposition of sanctions on anyone the administration regards as involved in undermining "peace" or "stability" in the West Bank - even if there is no allegation of criminal conduct or violence. This directive is far-reaching because the administration deems Jews merely living in the West Bank as "obstacles to peace." An internal administration memo described the sanctions as targeted at those who "disrupt or prevent efforts to achieve a two-state solution." When the U.S. government imposes sanctions on an individual, his bank accounts and those of his immediate family will be frozen. Anyone who provides any "funds, goods, or services" to them may in turn be subjected to sanctions as well. These are harsh measures typically reserved for terrorists and dictators. A different administration down the line could freeze the bank accounts of Americans who support left-wing Israeli groups simply by deeming their activities bad for peace and stability in the West Bank. Sanctions have never been used to silence policy disagreements like this. Palestinian terror is rampant in Judea and Samaria. In the first half of 2023, Palestinians murdered 28 Israelis and wounded 362. Violent acts by Jews are a tiny fraction of those committed by Palestinians against Jews, and they are almost overwhelmingly property crimes. Yet no Palestinian terrorists have been sanctioned under this order. The writer is a professor at George Mason University Law School and a member of the plaintiffs' legal team. (Wall Street Journal) Hizbullah Israel and Hizbullah stand at the brink of full-scale war for the first time since 2006. But more dire than Hizbullah's rocket arsenal is the threat that it will launch an Oct. 7-style ground incursion into Israel. Since the day after Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre, Hizbullah has been firing rockets into Israel almost daily. More than 60,000 Israeli civilians displaced from their homes along the border with Lebanon will not return until the threat posed by Hizbullah ground forces is dealt with. They have good reason for concern. The Hamas massacre came straight out of Hizbullah's playbook. The Israeli military has been actively training for years to counter a Hizbullah plot to overrun Israeli communities, kill and kidnap civilians. Across the political spectrum, Israelis agree that they can no longer live with a gun to their heads, not from the south or from the north. The idea that enemies sworn to destroy them can be allowed to amass massive arsenals on their borders is no longer tenable. That means that Israel will ultimately have to address both Hizbullah's rocket stockpile and its 30,000-strong standing militia. The writer is director of the program on counterterrorism and intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. (Los Angeles Times) Israeli Security The key lesson to be learned from Oct. 7 is the failure of a defensive strategy that allowed the terrorist armies to build up major strength on our borders without hindrance. Israel's flawed border strategy rested on the false assumption that Hamas and Hizbullah could be tamed through withdrawals and understandings, and that they could be deterred by the threat of Israeli air power. Every military expert knows that there is no chance of stopping a significant attack on a border line that has no depth. Under conditions in which an enemy is constantly present and ready, there is no chance for early warning. The defense forces will always be surprised. The border turned from a political line into a military conceptual fixation. Military thought became enslaved to the division between "our territory" and "their territory." Our forces have to know what is happening across the border and must be able to prevent evolving threats. The front should benefit from good intelligence and air support but should not be dependent on them, especially not in surprise scenarios. Intelligence gathering should rely on mobile capabilities and unmanned aircraft, because cameras mounted on masts are too easy a target. Sustainable defense cannot be based on an obstacle and light forces. It should be built from the presence of significant reserve forces at the front. Training facilities close to the border will allow this. A border is a political concept, not a military one. It is necessary to remove the misperception of the border. From now on, call it a front. The writer is former commander of the Dado Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies, a department of the Israel Defense Forces. (BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) A conversation was held about the desirability of creating a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on July 16, 2024. Dennis Ross and Mohammed Dajani make the case for "yes," Elliott Abrams and Fleur Hassan-Nahoum for "no." Elliott Abrams, former U.S. deputy national security advisor in the administration of President George W. Bush, where he supervised U.S. policy in the Middle East for the White House, also served as Special Representative for Iran in the Trump administration. He said: "I wish I could believe that the two-state solution was a solution, but it's not. For one thing, neither Israelis nor Palestinians believe in it. On neither side is there majority support....[British author Salman Rushdie said in May,] "If there were a Palestinian state now, it would be run by Hamas and we would have a Taliban-like state, a satellite state of Iran." "The main goal of Palestinian nationalism has been negative, not positive. It has never been to build a Palestinian state. It has been about destroying the Jewish state....The creation of a Palestinian state today or tomorrow is a formula for increasing the conflict as Iran makes that state, as Rushdie said, its own satellite and a launching pad for attacks on Israel." "When you listen to world leaders...they always talk about two states, a Jewish and democratic state and a viable, independent, sovereign Palestinian state. And the word that's missing is "democratic." Why is it missing? Because they know that an independent Palestinian state is going to be a Hamas state and they don't want that." "The need for change is in Palestinian society, yet plazas and schools are still being named after murderers. The Pay to Slay program is still there, where Palestinians who have committed acts of terrorism are paid salaries - by the PA, not Hamas - while they are in prison, and the amount they are paid rises with the severity of the crime. This has been going on for decades and it hasn't stopped....There's no evidence, none, that the vast majority of Palestinians actually want a peace-seeking government. That's a real problem." (Open to Debate) View the Video (Council on Foreign Relations) When air-raid sirens sound, Israelis all know where to go - a system of bomb shelters dating back five decades that are built to withstand most conventional missiles. This familiarity partly explains why Israelis are not panicking as a promised attack from Iran looms. The military is telling people to go about their daily lives. After Saddam Hussein fired dozens of Scud missiles at Israeli cities in 1991, the next year Israel passed a law mandating bomb shelters in every new building. Today, 65% of Israelis have a room in their home or apartment that is a bomb shelter, or have a bomb shelter on their floor servicing several apartments, or live near a public shelter. (Wall Street Journal) At a time when the eyes of the world are on Israel, anticipating an attack by Iran and its proxies, President Isaac Herzog said Sunday, "We did not seek this war. But when left with no choice, when faced with actions aimed at our destruction, we will defend ourselves without compromise - anytime, anywhere, and by any means necessary." "Our enemies, part of an axis of evil, have declared their intent to attack us soon with great force....As someone privy to intelligence and other materials, I unequivocally declare: The State of Israel is prepared to confront this threat. Our air force and highly advanced multi-dimensional defense systems stand alert and ready - and have already proven themselves. We have comprehensive intelligence. Our emergency and rescue networks, as well as the Home Front, are more prepared than ever before." (Jerusalem Post) Palestinian Arabs Although public opinion polls have indicated a rise in support for Hamas among West Bank Palestinians, the number of demonstrators who took to the streets to protest against the July 31, 2024, targeting of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was notably low. Yet the low turnout does not signify a decline in these Palestinians' support for Hamas. The killing did not come as a surprise. News of the death of senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials has become commonplace among Palestinians, especially over the past ten months. Moreover, Haniyeh was killed in Tehran. There is no love for Iran among many Palestinians. Since Oct. 7, the West Bank has experienced extremely dire economic conditions, primarily as a result of Israeli authorities forbidding or restricting Palestinian laborers from entering Israel. This is in addition to a massive Israeli security crackdown on armed groups, particularly in the northern West Bank. According to Palestinian sources, more than 500 Palestinians, mostly gunmen, have been killed by Israeli security forces in the West Bank since Oct. 7. There is growing recognition that Hamas has forced the Palestinians in Gaza to endure another "nakba" (catastrophe) as a result of its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. For some Palestinians, Haniyeh and the Qatar-based Hamas leaders lived affluent lifestyles abroad while their people in Gaza were suffering. Others are incensed with the Hamas leaders in Gaza for wreaking havoc on their people. The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) In response to the article "The Palestinian Authority Is Collapsing" (July 17, 2024), although the authors are right to raise the crucial issue of the dysfunction and inefficacy of the Palestinian Authority, they are wrong to attribute the PA's failings to Israel. The authors cite the PA's financial troubles. What they neglect to mention, however, is that in 2018, the last year that the PA made its budget public, $350 million - 7% of the total - was reserved to pay terrorists who killed or injured civilians in Israel or members of the IDF, and to pay the families of those terrorists. While civil servants are suffering with 50% salary cuts, the authority continues to pay terrorists and their families 100% of their stipends. According to Palestinian Authority law, the PA is required to employ any males who have served at least ten years and females who have served at least five years in Israeli prison, at salaries no less than the monthly "pay for slay" stipends they received in prison. The PA has created a perverse system that incentivizes violence and hatred, breeding a bureaucracy of malfeasance and depravity. Before condemning Israel for "degrading" the PA, one must acknowledge that the PA has degraded itself. Before calling on countries, international institutions, and donor organizations to rally around the impoverished authority, one must recognize that the PA uses its resources to prioritize the murder of Israelis over basic governance. The PA's financial condition is a product of an immoral system that it - and it alone - has created. Elliot Abrams is a Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Sander R. Gerber is a Managing Partner, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer at Hudson Bay Capital. (Foreign Affairs) Other Issues U.S. forces have launched 800 missiles and 7 rounds of air strikes against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen since November in the most sustained military campaign by American forces since the air war in Iraq and Syria that reached its height in 2016-2019. ice Adm. George Wikoff, commander of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, said Wednesday that the Houthis are well armed and have strong and consistent supply lines into Iran, "and are looking for a reason to use it." While the group is claiming that its latest attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea are aimed at Israeli vessels, the reality is they're attacking anything they can hit. The Navy is knocking down most of those drones and missiles targeting commercial shipping, requiring the U.S. to deploy warships to the Red Sea for months. Day after day, the U.S. Navy has been fighting off waves of inexpensive, mass-produced drones launched by Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea. And the drones keep coming, forcing the American military to burn through hundreds of multi-million dollar missiles on a mission with no end in sight. The Red Sea mission has pulled in many high-end American assets including multiple aircraft carriers, destroyers, cruisers and air wings stationed in the region. "We are burning readiness to the tune of tens of billions of dollars for what really amounts to a ragtag bunch of terrorists that are Iran proxies," said Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who chairs the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness. "Iran is the core of the issue." (Politico) Last week, Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner general of UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, was heckled while giving a speech in Lausanne, Switzerland. "UNRWA kidnapped my son," an anguished Israeli woman shouted from the audience. Ayelet Samerano's son, Yonatan, was murdered on Oct. 7. His body was then dragged into Gaza by ghoulish UNRWA staff. Ten months later, as his mother held up his picture during the UNRWA speech in Switzerland, a member of the audience snatched it from her hands and shoved it into a nearby bin. There could be no better metaphor for the contempt with which the UN seemingly holds Israel and Jews. In Gaza, UN facilities are regularly used by Hamas. In February, a subterranean terrorist command center was found directly underneath the UNRWA headquarters in Gaza City. Why do the Palestinians need their own dedicated refugee agency? All other refugees in the world are serviced by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Refugees from other parts of the Middle East and Africa lose their refugee status when they settle permanently elsewhere. Under UNRWA, however, Palestinians are classed as refugees even when they become full citizens of other countries. A Palestinian born in the U.S. who becomes wealthy will, under UNRWA's terms, be classed as a "refugee" in perpetuity. The writer is editor of the Jewish Chronicle-UK. (Telegraph-UK) Reports of antisemitic incidents in the UK in the first half of 2024 have reached a record high. From January to June 2024, Britain's Community Security Trust (CST) recorded reports of 1,978 anti-Jewish hate incidents, up from 964 in the first half of 2023. There were 121 incidents of assault, an increase of 41% from the same period last year. Cases of damage and desecration to Jewish property rose from 24 to 83. British Home Secretary Yvette Cooper described the figures as "truly appalling." She added: "There is no place in Britain for this vile hatred and we are absolutely clear that those who push this poison - on the streets or online - must always face the full force of the law." (BBC News) Observations: Perception Warfare as Both Threat and Opportunity in Israel's Post-October 7 Existential War - Dr. Dan Diker (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
The writer is President of the Jerusalem Center. |
|