Prepared for the Conference of Presidents
of Major American Jewish Organizations

by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

DAILY ALERT
Wednesday,
January 29, 2014
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • Iran Will Not "Dismantle Anything" in Its Nuclear Program
    Senior Iranian nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi said Tuesday: "Nothing will be stopped or dismantled in Iran's nuclear program. Anything or activity will press ahead."
        Regarding the lifting of sanctions, Araqchi said: "We have had good achievements on petrochemicals, oil, food and drugs, and cash and banking transfers, as well as release of $4.2 billion of assets, which shows the P5+1 has withdrawn from the sanctions on Iran." He added Iran's earnings from oil sales could reach $18 billion over the next six months. (ISNA-Iran)
  • Iran Will Not Give Up Arak Heavy Water Reactor
    Operation of the heavy water reactor in Arak is Iran's red-line and the country has no plan to relinquish this project by any means, informed Iranian sources said on Monday. "The Arak reactor is the result of 30 years of efforts and Iran will not lose it even under the most difficult conditions," a source said.
        He warned that the radical stances taken by some U.S. officials could push the current negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group into a deadlock. "Iran has never been blackmailed by the Americans, and it won't be in the future either," he said. (Fars-Iran)
  • Gunmen Kill Egyptian General - Shadia Nasralla and Sameh Bardissi
    Egyptian Gen. Mohamed Saeed, head of the Interior Ministry's technical office, was shot in his car outside his home in Cairo on Tuesday by Islamist militant gunmen on a motorcycle. Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, a Sinai-based militant group inspired by al-Qaeda, said it carried out the attack. (Reuters)
  • Palestinians Oppose U.S. Listing of Islamic Jihad Leader as Global Terrorist
    Dozens of Palestinians demonstrated in Gaza on Monday against an American decision to declare Ziad al-Nakhala, deputy leader of the Islamic Jihad movement, as a "specially designated global terrorist." Washington has included Islamic Jihad on its list of foreign terrorist organizations since 1997. It calls for the destruction of Israel, receives financial and military aid from Iran, and has claimed responsibility for deadly bombings and rocket attacks against Israel. (Xinhua-China)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Netanyahu: Iran Set Back Only 6 Weeks by Nuclear Deal
    The interim deal with the West set back the time Iran would take to assemble a nuclear bomb by only six weeks, Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Institute for National Security Studies on Tuesday. "The whole world knows that Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said. "We will only support an arrangement that ensures the complete dismantling of Iran's infrastructure and capabilities to build nuclear weapons. We will not let Iran develop the capability to build nuclear weapons."  (Times of Israel)
  • Netanyahu: Israel Not Obligated by U.S. Peace Plan - Gilad Morag
    Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Institute for National Security Studies on Tuesday: "The Americans are establishing American positions - not Israeli. Israel does not have to accept these positions. The Palestinian state should be a demilitarized entity that recognizes the Jewish state." "I don't want another Iran-sponsored state that launches rockets and terror at us."
        "The conflict is not about the territories or the settlements and it is not about a Palestinian state. The Zionist movement agreed at the time of the Partition Plan [in 1947] on a Palestinian country, but the conflict persists due to the stubborn opposition to acknowledge a Jewish state."  (Ynet News)
  • Thomas Friedman: Kerry's Plan Envisions Palestinian Capital in East Jerusalem - Barak Ravid
    U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's draft framework agreement for Middle East peace talks will include support for establishing a Palestinian capital in Arab areas of eastern Jerusalem, New York Times analyst Thomas Friedman wrote Wednesday. Friedman, who is currently visiting Israel, said that Kerry's framework document would present the core concessions that Washington considers Israelis and Palestinians need to make. (Ha'aretz)
  • Palestinian Terrorist Killed after Opening Fire on Israeli Troops - Mitch Ginsburg
    A Palestinian man opened fire on an IDF post near Ofra in the West Bank on Wednesday. A soldier returned fire and killed the shooter. The soldier "acted swiftly and professionally to prevent casualties. We will continue to stand guard and protect Israeli civilians from terror acts such as this one," IDF spokesman Lt. Col. Peter Lerner said. (Times of Israel)
  • Hamas Cell Uncovered in Jerusalem - Ben Hartman
    The Israel Security Agency has arrested 16 "prominent operatives with Hamas in eastern Jerusalem and members of its operations branch, and among the leaders of its activities at the Temple Mount," the ISA stated on Tuesday. They include activists from the northern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel. The ISA found that the Islamic Movement was operating educational courses on the Temple Mount and paying people to maintain a presence there in order to "increase the tension and cause disturbances, especially during Jewish holidays." This was "another effort by Hamas to expand its influence among the Palestinian population in Jerusalem and the West Bank." (Jerusalem Post)
  • Defense Minister: Israel Can't Rely on Palestinian Authority for Security - Amos Harel
    Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon told the Institute for National Security Studies on Tuesday that, from a security standpoint, the Palestinian Authority is not a responsible neighbor on which Israel can rely. He noted that last year the PA arrested more than 1,000 people associated with Hamas in the West Bank, but none were ever brought to trial.
        Regarding Iran, he said, "History will judge the interim agreement with Iran. We contend that it is a historic missed opportunity." "The agreement left Iran with the independent capacity to enrich uranium to a level of 3.5%. That's at the core of the retention of a nuclear military option. They can develop centrifuges - to replace them. No one has stopped the development process for missiles with a 10,000-km. range [or] their aiding terror in Afghanistan, Syria, Lebanon and in the Palestinian arena."
        "They have already been freed of the international and economic pressure. As far as what we anticipate, the Iranians will exploit the next three years to solidify at the nuclear threshold in a way that will position them in a breakout position when they've decided to become a nuclear state. Their strategic aspirations have not changed: Export of the [Iranian Islamic] revolution and regional hegemony based on diplomatic subversion, terrorism and, in the future, perhaps also a nuclear umbrella....One way or another, it must be stopped."  (Ha'aretz)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
  • Uzi Arad: Iran's Nuclear Bid "Only a Matter of Time" - Elhanan Miller
    Former national security adviser Uzi Arad said Tuesday he sees little prospect of Iran rolling back its bid to attain nuclear weapons capabilities. "Most experts doubt whether a [final] deal can be reached, so we should treat the current situation as one which will continue. They [the Iranians] will continue enriching [uranium] to a level they regard as permissible, until the opportunity arises when they decide to catch up easily. It's only a matter of time. Meanwhile, they achieve sanctions relief and the sense of [Western] laxness."
        "I ask in the name of common sense: a state which went through such efforts to reach military nuclear capabilities, which paid such a heavy price over the years for whatever reason, will suddenly simply say: 'All right, never mind, this was just a game?' Of course not. The same impulses remain, except now [Iran] needs to add new considerations to the equation. They want to reach nuclear capabilities cheaply, without sanctions."  (Times of Israel)
  • The Palestinians' New Enemy: Israeli Peace Negotiator Tzipi Livni - Khaled Abu Toameh
    The Palestinians are angry with Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, who heads the Israeli team to the peace talks, for daring to criticize PA President Mahmoud Abbas. The PA leadership is now saying that Livni must be replaced. In an interview last Saturday, Livni announced that Abbas' positions are "not only unacceptable to us, but to the whole world, and if he continues to stick to them, then the Palestinians will be the ones to pay the price."
        Livni's statement has been misinterpreted by Palestinians as a threat to eliminate Abbas. The goal is to make Abbas appear as a "martyr" who paid a heavy price for standing up to Israel and the U.S. After Livni made her statement, several PA officials and organizations responded by accusing her of "incitement."
        The attacks on Livni correspond with a campaign being waged by Palestinians against U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. Over the past few weeks, many Palestinian groups have been waging protests against Kerry's efforts. (Gatestone Institute)
  • Is Hizbullah about to Withdraw from Syria? - Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira
    Hizbullah has now lost almost 350 men in Syria, while the number of wounded has passed a thousand. This puts into question Hizbullah's ability to keep sacrificing its fighters in Syria when its target of jihad is Israel. Moreover, the devastating Salafi terror attacks in Beirut have included an attack on the symbolically charged Iranian embassy. Hizbullah has trouble functioning when its leaders, operatives, and supporters are busy trying to survive and searching for car bombs. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
  • Palestinian Incitement: An Obstacle to the Peace Negotiations - Alice Bexson
    Ending Palestinian incitement is critical to the peace process, says David Pollock, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former Senior Advisor for the Broader Middle East at the U.S. State Department (2002- 2007). Official Palestinian Authority incitement is spread through PA media - subsidized by the U.S., UK and EU. This activity amounts to glorifying terrorism, which is banned under formal signed agreements between the PA and the international community.
        Incitement is self-defeating, even from a Palestinian perspective, because it creates the impression that they are not credible partners for peace. Moreover, incitement only convinces Israelis that they cannot risk withdrawal from territory that will then become a hotbed for more violence and terrorism. Aid and funding must be conditioned on the willingness of the PA to crack down on this rhetoric. (Henry Jackson Society-UK)
Observations:

Iran Is Not Our Friend - Leon Wieseltier (New Republic)

  • The American government is no longer disgusted by the Iranian government. We are partners now, Washington and Tehran, and not only in the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program. The administration hopes for an Iranian contribution also to a diplomatic solution to the Syrian excruciation.
  • There is a bizarre warmth between the governments, a climate of practicality and cordiality, as if a new page has been turned in a history of ugly relations, as if the ugliness of those relations were based only in illusion and misunderstanding.
  • Hassan Rouhani is an improvement over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He does not deny that the Holocaust happened, which for the Islamic Republic counts as a breakthrough in enlightenment. But it is important to remember that Iran is still the Islamic Republic, a theocratic tyranny ruled by a single man, a haughty cleric who subsumes the state beneath religion and his interpretation of it, and maintains his power by means of a fascistic military organization that brutalizes the population and plunders the economy.
  • This same mullah-king supports the murderer in Damascus and the murderers in Lebanon and Gaza, and remorselessly pursues a foreign policy animated by anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism. We may have extended our hand, but the Supreme Leader - the title itself is repugnant to decent modern ears - has not unclenched his fist.
  • I appreciate the need for a diplomatic exploration of the Iranian nuclear challenge, but believing we must choose between a nuclear-free Iran and a tyranny-free Iran is a false choice.
  • In the twentieth century, Soviet missiles threatened the U.S. infinitely more than Iranian centrifuges threaten us now, but arms control was not permitted to eclipse human rights in our policy toward the nuclear dictatorship; and we learned that human rights had vast strategic implications.