| Prepared for the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs | |
| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, June 2, 2015 |
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With only one month left before a deadline to complete a nuclear deal with Iran, international inspectors have reported that Tehran’s stockpile of nuclear fuel increased about 20 percent over the last 18 months of negotiations, partially undercutting the Obama administration’s contention that the Iranian program had been “frozen” during that period. The extent to which Iran’s stockpile has increased was documented in a report issued Friday by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN organization that monitors compliance with nuclear treaties. The overall increase in Iran’s stockpile poses a major diplomatic and political challenge for President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry. The administration will have to convince Congress and America’s allies that Iran will shrink its stockpile by 96 percent in a matter of months after a deal is signed, even while it continues to produce new material and has demonstrated little success in reducing its current stockpile. (New York Times) U.S. President Barack Obama told Israeli journalist Ilana Dayan that the forthcoming agreement between the world powers and Iran is the best way to ensure that Tehran does not obtain nuclear weapons. "I can I think demonstrate, not based on any hope but on facts and evidence and analysis that the best way to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon is a verifiable tough agreement," he said. According to Obama, an American military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would not dismantle Tehran's nuclear program. (Ha'aretz) French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said a possible nuclear deal with Iran risks sparking a nuclear arms race in the Middle East unless the agreement grants international inspectors access to Iranian military sites and other secret facilities. Mr. Fabius insisted the ability to inspect such sites be part of a final agreement with Iran to ensure Tehran doesn’t covertly try to build a nuclear weapon. “The best agreement, if you cannot verify it, it’s useless,” said Mr. Fabius. At times, Mr. Fabius has taken a harder line than officials in Washington, warning in 2013 that the West risked being suckered into a “fool’s game.” (Wall Street Journal) Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commanding officer of Qods Force, the special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, has reportedly been photographed in Iraq’s Anbar province alongside Shiite militiamen. Soleimani was also photographed in Baghdad with Popular Mobilization Committee chief Abu Mahdi al Muhandis, and Imam Ali Brigade leader Shebl al Zaydi. Muhandis is a former commander in the Badr Organization who was listed by the US government as Specially Designated Global Terrorist in July 2009. (Long War Journal) Fierce battles raged between Islamic State and rebel fighters in Syria’s Aleppo province on Monday, the day after the militant group seized villages close to the Turkish border and came within seven miles of the main highway connecting Syria’s largest city to Turkey. The highway is the main supply route for aid and weapons coming from Turkey. (Wall Street Journal) See also While Nobody Was Looking, the Islamic State Launched a New, Deadly Offensive - Liz Sly The Islamic State's surprise assault in the Aleppo province opened a new front in the multi-pronged war being waged by the extremist group across Iraq and Syria, and it underscored IS' capacity to catch its enemies off guard. The U.S. Embassy in Syria issued a tweet “Reports indicate that the [Assad] regime is making air strikes in support of ISIL’s advance on Aleppo.” (Washington Post) The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for Guided Bomb Units and associated equipment, parts and logistical support for an estimated cost of $130 million. The proposed sale will provide the UAE with additional precision guided munitions capability to meet the current threat represented by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, and Houthi aggression in Yemen. The UAE continues to provide host-nation support of vital U.S. forces stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base and plays a vital role in supporting U.S. regional interests. Question: "Director, the political breach we have with Israel, has that degraded or in any way made -- hurt our intelligence gathering capabilities?" CIA Director John Brennan: "Absolutely not. There is a very, very strong relationship between United States and Israel on the intelligence, security and military fronts. It's one of the great things, I think, about our system, there can be policy differences between our governments, but the intelligence and security professionals know that we have an obligation to keep our countries safe and secure. "And so although there's been great debate about the Iranian nuclear negotiations that are ongoing, the CIA, NSA and other intelligence community entities are working very close with their Israeli as well as other counterparts." (CBS Face the Nation) A pro-Palestinian group that denies Israel's right to exist and which critics say is a front for Hamas won key status from a UN panel, prompting angry diplomats from the Jewish state to lash out at nations that voted for the measure, including several with dubious human rights records. The UN Committee on Non-Governmental Organizations, a 19-member panel that includes Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, Venezuela, Russia and China, granted “observer” status to the Palestinian Return Center (PRC). (Fox News)
Last summer’s war with Hamas in Gaza presented a case of dueling narratives that Israel is still fighting to this day, Amb. Dore Gold told a press briefing at his Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) think tank on Monday. “Part of Israel’s challenge in all these conflicts is when ideas and conclusions are asserted even though they can’t be checked, they become the lingua franca on the nature of the conflict,” he explained. “These are the type of issues that helped form a narrative about the war that are certainly affecting Israel’s position up until this point in time.” The JCPA monograph, The Gaza War 2014: The War Israel Did Not Want and the Disaster it Averted, was presented to reporters at the press conference in Jerusalem. (Jerusalem Post) Just one week before upcoming parliamentary elections in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and officials in his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) found a unique way to try and secure a victory at the polls by calling for the "liberation" of Jerusalem. Erdogan drew a straight historical line between the capture of Jerusalem from the crusaders by Saladin to the capture of Constantinople [in 1453] and to the elections in Turkey due to take place next week. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently dedicated a new airport in the south of the country, naming it after Saladin. According to Davutoglu, "It's a name that says to the Kurds, to Turkey, and to the Arabs, yes, this is our leader. It's a symbol that unites us," he continued. "All those who claim that Jerusalem is the Jews’ holy city should be ashamed." (Ynet) Syrian Druze near the Israeli border are under threat from the Islamic State as the Assad regime withdraws its forces from the area, according to Druze sources. The heads of the Israeli Druze community raised their concerns for their brethren in Syria in meetings with senior Israeli security officials. Israel is closely following developments in case Druze residents flee to Israel because of the jihadist threat. (Jerusalem Post) A Lebanese-Canadian man detained in Cyprus after two tons of potential bomb-making material was found in his home was reported by media Friday to be a member of the militant group Hizbullah. The Phileleftheros newspaper said the 26-year-old man belonged to the Lebanese organization’s military wing and had personal links to Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. (Ya Libnan - Lebanon) Iraqi security forces lost 2,300 Humvee armored vehicles when the Islamic State jihadist group overran the northern city of Mosul, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on May 31. (AFP/Al Arabiya) Observations: A Critique of Obama's Understanding of Israel by an Israeli General - Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic) |
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