Prepared for the Conference of Presidents
of Major American Jewish Organizations

by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs

DAILY ALERT
Thursday,
January 30, 2014
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • U.S.: Iran Can Build and Deliver Nuclear Weapons - Josh Gerstein
    Iran's ability to make missiles loaded with nuclear warheads now rests primarily on the "political will" of its leaders, rather than any technical constraints, according to the annual U.S. intelligence assessment presented by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday.
        "Tehran has made technical progress in a number of areas - including uranium enrichment, nuclear reactors, and ballistic missiles - from which it could draw if it decided to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons. These technical advancements strengthen our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons. This makes the central issue its political will to do so."  (Politico)
  • Syria Has Shipped Out Less than 5 Percent of Chemical Weapons - Anthony Deutsch
    Syria has given up less than 5% of its chemical weapons arsenal and will miss next week's deadline to send all toxic agents abroad for destruction, sources said on Wednesday. The two shipments this month to the Syrian port of Latakia totaled 4.1% of the roughly 1,300 tons of toxic agents reported by Damascus to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). Under a deal agreed by Russia and the U.S. after the August 21 sarin gas attack on the outskirts of Damascus that killed hundreds, Syria vowed to give up its entire stockpile by mid-2014. (Reuters)
  • Syrian Government Has Razed Entire Neighborhoods
    Syrian authorities deliberately demolished thousands of residential buildings in Damascus and Hama in 2012 and 2013, Human Rights Watch said in a report released Thursday, based on satellite imagery, witness statements, and video and photographic evidence. The report documents seven cases of large-scale demolitions with explosives and bulldozers that violated the laws of war. The demolitions either served no necessary military purpose and appeared to intentionally punish the civilian population or caused disproportionate harm to civilians. "Wiping entire neighborhoods off the map is not a legitimate tactic of war," said HRW researcher Ole Solvang. (Human Rights Watch)
  • Israeli General Reveals Al-Qaeda Bases in Turkey
    Al-Qaeda militants fighting in Syria have set up bases in Turkey, where they can also easily access Europe, Israel's military intelligence chief said Wednesday. Al-Qaeda fighters from around the world enter Syria weekly, but they "do not stay there," Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi told the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, while presenting a map of the Middle East marked with areas of al-Qaeda presence. The map showed three al-Qaeda bases in the Turkish provinces of Karaman, Osmaniye and Sanliurfa. (Al Arabiya)
  • CIA Helped Saudis in Secret Chinese Missile Deal - Jeff Stein
    As the West and Iran move closer to a nuclear accommodation, signs are emerging that Saudi Arabia is readying a new missile strike force of its own - which has been upgraded with Washington's careful connivance. According to a well-placed intelligence source, Saudi Arabia bought ballistic missiles from China in 2007 in a deal that won Washington's quiet approval on the condition that CIA technical experts could verify they were not designed to carry nuclear warheads.
        The solid-fueled, medium-range DF-21 East Wind missiles are an improvement over the DF-3s the Saudis clandestinely acquired from China in 1988. The newer missiles have a shorter range but greater accuracy, making them more useful against "high-value targets in Tehran, like presidential palaces or supreme-leader palaces," said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. (Newsweek)
  • Johansson Stepping Down as Oxfam Ambassador over Israeli Ad Campaign
    Scarlett Johansson is ending her relationship with Oxfam International after serving as its global ambassador since 2007, raising funds and promoting awareness about global poverty. A statement released by Johansson's spokesman Wednesday said, "She and Oxfam have a fundamental difference of opinion in regards to the boycott, divestment and sanctions movement" against Israel. (AP)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • IDF Intelligence Head: 170,000 Rockets Aimed at Israel's Cities - Mitch Ginsburg
    IDF Military Intelligence head Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi discussed Israel's central security challenges at the Institute for National Security Studies on Wednesday. He said Israel faces 170,000 rockets and missiles, and that, "for the first time in many decades, the enemy has the ability to drop considerable amounts of munitions on the cities of Israel."
        He also noted the "near 360 degree" presence of Jihadist elements along Israel's borders. Salafist elements cover nearly half of Syria and had a presence in nearly every country in the region.
        At the same time there were some positive developments, including the decline in the popularity and legitimacy of Hizbullah and Bashar Assad, alongside "the erosion" in the Muslim Brotherhood's popularity. He added that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf states all share priorities that "are in confluence" with Israel's most pressing interests. (Times of Israel)
  • Strategic Affairs Minister: Israel Must Have Defensible Borders in the Jordan Valley - Tovah Lazaroff
    Strategic Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz told the Institute for National Security Studies on Wednesday that Israel could not ensure its security if it withdraws the IDF from the Jordan Valley, pointing to Israel's experience with the Gaza withdrawal in 2005. Since then, he said, more than 11,000 rockets had been fired at Israel. "We have to make sure that we have defensible borders - total control - in the Jordan Valley, and not only in certain points," adding that it was important to maintain the Israeli settlements in the valley.
        He also noted that the Middle East was unstable, Arab countries were collapsing from within, and no one could promise that a Palestinian state would be immune from takeover by radicals. (Jerusalem Post)
  • French Court Rules Boycott Group Cease Campaign Against SodaStream
    A Paris court ruled that a French pro-boycott group must compensate SodaStream for denigrating its products and cease and desist from advertising that the Israeli company's products are sold illegally. (Ha'aretz)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
  • Israeli General Responds to Critics of Israel's Human Rights Record - Ivan B.K. Levingston and Tyler S. Olkowski
    Maj.-Gen. Yaakov Amidror, who recently stepped down as head of the Israeli National Security Council, responded vehemently against allegations that Israel commits human rights offenses. He told Harvard Hillel on Monday: "Not one of the human rights experts at Harvard are responsible for the lives of citizens anywhere in the world - when you come to real life, it's much more complicated." He defended the Israel Defense Forces' practice of forcibly entering the homes of Palestinians "to prevent suicide bombings."
        He also praised the strength of the relationship between Israel and the U.S., calling the Obama administration "the best we've had since 1967."  (Harvard Crimson)
  • Iran the Biggest Loser in the Syrian Civil War - Zachary Keck
    No third party has been a bigger loser in Syria than Iran. The prospect of the Alawites losing power in Damascus threatened to roll back all the gains Iran made over the last decade, not only undermining Iran's position in Syria, but also by extension in Lebanon. Over the past two years, Iran and its ally Hizbullah have been forced to devote considerable blood and treasure into preventing Alawite rule from collapsing in Syria, and the material costs for Iran are likely to continue to mount.
        The larger cost of supporting Assad has been the loss of Iran and Hizbullah's soft power in the Middle East. Iranian influence in the region is largely based on the soft power it accrues from its defiance and denouncements of Israel and the U.S. For decades this soft power has allowed Iranian leaders to bridge the ethnic and sectarian divide with the Arab Sunni street.
        Iran's popularity in the Arab world has virtually fallen off the cliff since the Syrian conflict began. As James Zogby notes, in 2006 Iran had a 75% favorability rating in twenty Middle Eastern nations. By 2012, Iran's favorability ratings in those same countries declined to just 25%. (National Interest)
  • Confronting European Funding for BDS - Gerald M. Steinberg
    BDS (boycott, divestment and sanctions) is a form of political warfare against the State of Israel based on the exploitation of human rights and humanitarian principles. Leaders of BDS campaigns repeatedly express their rejection of any Jewish right to self-determination, regardless of borders.
        The BDS movement is led by the Palestinian leadership, in close alliance with a network of political advocacy non-governmental organizations (NGOs) funded largely by European governments. This money enables ostensibly "non-political" organizations to flood the media, universities, parliaments and other platforms with a steady flow of anti-Israel demonization.
        The most effective and immediate strategy to blunt BDS and other forms of political warfare is to end the massive funding given to radical NGOs that promote these anti-Israel campaigns, particularly in Europe. The writer is professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University and president of NGO Monitor. (Times of Israel)
  • View the First Photographs Ever Taken of Jerusalem - Rose Eveleth
    View photos of Jerusalem taken by French photographer Joseph-Philibert Girault de Prangey in 1844. (Smithsonian)
Observations:

Does Ashton's Lapse Reflect EU Attitudes toward the Jewish State? - Editorial (Jerusalem Post)

  • Baroness Catherine Ashton, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and vice president of the European Commission, issued a remarkable statement marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day on Monday that never mentioned Jews.
  • The bizarre homage Europe's spokeswoman paid to "every one of those brutally murdered in the darkest period of European history," without any reference to their identity, strains common sense.
  • Not mentioning who the six million were and why Europe's resplendent cultures systematically put them to death appeases elements in the Islamic world - Iran foremost - that don't conceal their sympathy for the Nazi genocide.
  • The Holocaust was blueprinted against Jews. Not every last victim was Jewish, but every Jew on earth was earmarked for death. Only Jews were singled out for eradication because of "tainted" lineage. Nothing could save anyone deemed too Jewish to live.
  • In 2012, Ashton equated the point-blank shootings in France of three small Jewish children and the father of two of them with an assortment of unrelated misfortunes. The Toulouse victims' sole crime was that they were born to Jewish parents - just like the million and a half Jewish children slaughtered in the Holocaust.
  • Such moral blindness cannot be ignored when assessing EU attitudes toward the Jewish state.