| DAILY ALERT |
Sunday, August 16, 2026 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Syria said on Aug. 9 it had reached a deal to take control of two Russian military bases, largely ending Moscow's military presence in the country. The Syrian Foreign Ministry said the deal would "reorganize Moscow's presence" to give Syrian civilian authorities control of transport facilities at Hmeimim and Tartus, an airfield and naval base on the Mediterranean coast, state news agency SANA reported. Russia's military facilities at the bases will be "transformed into joint training and qualification centers" following a three-month transition period. The announcement appeared to mark a significant strategic blow for Russia, after Moscow's ally Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in late 2024. Russia evacuated hundreds of military and civilian personnel following Assad's ousting. Putin granted asylum to Assad and his family. (Financial Times-UK) Senior Trump administration officials have doubled down on economic pressure in the fight with Iran, vowing unprecedented financial sanctions that would force Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran on Thursday attacked two UAE ships in the strait, Emirati officials said. Iranian officials believe they have time on their side and have expanded their demands for reopening Hormuz. International oil prices have oscillated under $90 a barrel in recent days as the region's producers have managed to find workarounds to keep their crude moving. (Wall Street Journal) See also below Commentary: Iran's Leverage over the Global Economy Weakens Every Day - Landon Derentz (Atlantic Council) See also Iran Tells Trump to "Accept the Reality of Defeat" - Sophia Yan (Telegraph-UK) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Three IDF combat engineering troops were wounded early Saturday when a Hizbullah explosive drone struck them near the Ali Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The Prime Minister's Office said, "Hizbullah violated the ceasefire in Lebanon by attacking our soldiers in the security zone, which protects Israeli communities just across the border....The IDF responded by striking the Hizbullah terror headquarters which ordered the attack." The IDF said its retaliatory strikes killed Ali Hassan, a battalion commander in Hizbullah's Radwan Force at a Hizbullah headquarters in Ansar in southern Lebanon. Additional Hizbullah operatives involved in advancing attacks against IDF forces in the security zone were also killed. It was later learned that Hassan's family was inside the military headquarters with him at the time of the strike. "They were not the target of the strike," the IDF said. "The strike was specifically directed at Hassan, who was a lawful target under international law. The terrorist used his family as human shields and hid with them inside the military headquarters." U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee accused Hizbullah of deliberately placing children in the military area. Lebanese media asked U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michael Issa when Israeli strikes would end. He responded, "Tell Hizbullah that if it hands over its weapons, everything will stop." (Ynet News) See also IDF Kills Second Hizbullah Commander in Retaliatory Strike - Miriam Sela-Eitam The IDF killed senior Hizbullah commander Abu Hassan Alaa of the Bader Unit, who had carried out attacks on IDF soldiers, during strikes in the Deir ez-Zahrani area in southern Lebanon, the military announced Sunday. (Jerusalem Post) The IDF announced Friday that Hamas commander Muhammad Bassam Mushtaha from the Al-Shati battalion was killed in an airstrike in northern Gaza on July 30. Mushtaha was responsible for holding a number of Israelis captive who were kidnapped on Oct. 7, 2023, including Tsachi Idan, who was slain in captivity in Dec. 2023; Cpl. Noa Marciano, who was killed in Gaza in Nov. 2023; as well as Ziv Berman, Omri Miran, Ori Megidish, Naama Levy and Matan Angrest, who were all later freed or rescued. Separately, the IDF said that on Thursday it killed Hudhaifa Khaled Suleiman Qawari, a company commander in the Khan Yunis Brigade who was advancing attacks against Israeli troops. (Times of Israel) Israeli search-and-rescue soldiers began work in Colombia on Friday, joining local crews in the hunt for survivors and delivering humanitarian aid days after the powerful earthquake struck the country. Israel's 80-strong delegation arrived in Cali with search-and-rescue personnel and dogs. The delegation, headed by the commander of the National Search and Rescue Unit, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Pinto, includes both regular duty soldiers and reservists. (Times of Israel-Jerusalem Post) Three recent federal U.S. terrorism cases are investigating humanitarian crowdfunding campaigns supporting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. An FBI agent said Hamas raises funds through several channels, including the diversion of humanitarian aid through "sham charities" that shield the terror group from law enforcement. (Times of Israel) According to Tel Aviv University's Peace Index survey of Israeli public opinion conducted on July 26-30, 2026, only 12% of Jewish respondents believe that negotiations will lead to peace in the coming years. 24% of the Jewish public support the two-state solution, but only 13% believe it has a chance of being achieved in the foreseeable future. 66% of the Jewish public support the expansion of Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria based on security needs, while 25% oppose this. (Tel Aviv University) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
At what point does the U.S. stop treating the Strait of Hormuz as a crisis to manage and start treating it as an opportunity to permanently redraw the global energy map? For weeks, Iran has benefited from a basic strategic assumption: The Strait of Hormuz is too important to the global economy for the U.S. and its partners to tolerate its prolonged disruption. While the closure of Hormuz is painful, the question is whether that pain is more strategically endurable than the concessions Tehran hopes to extract in return for ending it. Iran's leverage over the global economy weakens every day it holds the Strait of Hormuz hostage as energy markets adapt. For half a century, the structure of global energy markets has been moving gradually away from the concentration that defined the oil shocks of the 1970s. The U.S. shale revolution transformed the country from an increasingly import-dependent energy consumer into the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas. Brazil has emerged as a major offshore oil producer. Canadian oil output has expanded alongside new access to Pacific markets. Large offshore discoveries in Guyana have created an entirely new oil-producing state in less than a decade. Chinese crude imports fell by 32% during the second quarter of this year from first-quarter levels. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maximizing existing pipelines and accelerating new infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. All of these measures are buffering the world from the worst economic effects of the crisis. Every barrel produced somewhere else, every pipeline constructed around Hormuz, every strategic stockpile expanded, and every unit of oil demand displaced represents a small reduction in Tehran's future coercive power. That is why the Trump administration does not need to rush to make concessions in negotiations with Tehran. The writer, vice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council, served as director for energy at the White House during the first Trump administration. (Atlantic Council) Four months after the main war in Iran ended in April, the IDF is now seeing a turnaround in many areas of Iran's military industrial complex, including the ballistic missile threat. The Post has independently confirmed statements by senior Iranian officials that it is now producing new ballistic missiles that could hit Israel at a much faster pace than expected. Steady progress now means that in a few years, the Iranian ballistic missile existential threat could be back in play. This will influence broader Israeli strategy about when and if another attack might be necessary. The IDF responded to the Post's report, saying: "Throughout the war, the IDF substantially harmed a diverse range of central components relating to Iran's military capabilities, thereby harming both the capabilities of the regime to utilize portions of its capabilities and the ability to rehabilitate them at the same scope and pace which existed prior to the war. Since then, the IDF has closely and continuously followed the Iranian efforts to rehabilitate and to newly rebuild their capabilities." "The IDF's evaluation and situation assessments are constantly updated and brought in line with actual developments." (Jerusalem Post) Iran's seizure of Hormuz is best understood as hostage taking, but the hostage has already been shot. Oil prices, while elevated, are not catastrophic. Moreover, suppliers are routing around the problem. The U.S. should adapt its blockade to be more sustainable, while sanctioning anyone who buys Iranian oil that gets through. The regime's frozen assets should also stay frozen. And Iran's proxies should be relentlessly suppressed in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza. Crucially, Trump needs to keep the threat of significant escalation on the table, especially if Iran takes even the smallest step toward reconstituting its nuclear program. Cutting deals with a murderous regime has never been a good idea. Feeding Iran more money would reward bad behavior and fund the next round of chaos. The savviest dealmaker knows when it's time to walk away. (Washington Post) The Iranian seizure of the Strait of Hormuz is textbook piracy. The Iranians are demanding cash for passage in waters that aren't theirs, for services no one requested. The Iranian ploy cannot last, much less succeed. The 1970s Arab oil embargo initially quadrupled oil prices, but then led Western producers to find new oil fields, and Western consumers to slash energy consumption. By the 1980s, the oil crunch became an oil glut, with prices plunging at one point to hardly $10 per barrel. Politically, Iran's piracy will win it the enmity of all its victims, first and foremost its Arab neighbors. Yes, as of now the Arab world is surrendering to its Muslim rival's bullying. Yet, Iran's assault on its Arab neighbors will be recalled for generations. Arabs know better than all others that Iran's piracy is part of the Islamic Republic's imperialism, as are the militias it planted in a host of Arab countries. Iran attacked eight Arab countries with missiles and drones. In due course, they will respond. There is no genius, or even just wisdom, in Iran's seizure of Hormuz. It's an act of desperation that only messianic fanatics could devise. It's the beginning of the end of the ayatollahs' quest to impose theocracy on Iran, Shi'ism on all Muslims, and Iran's sway on an unsuspecting world. (Jerusalem Post) Hizbullah Brig.-Gen. Yiftach Norkin led the capture of Beaufort fortress in May 2026. First, IDF forces began shaping the battlefield, clearing terrorists from the dense vegetation along the Litani River, especially on its southern bank. "For two weeks we worked to open an entirely new route through Wadi al-Man," Norkin said. "Hizbullah did not believe the IDF could get through the vegetation at that point, so they were not properly prepared." "For a week we broke through a hidden route. We crossed tank after tank, D9 after D9, without a road and without them seeing us. By morning, the tanks were on the Litani." It took another week to sweep the Litani area and clear it of terrorists. (Ynet News) Israeli Security Following the Oct. 7 massacre, Israel's Navy has been rebuilding its coastal defense system into a multi-layered "Iron Wall" against divers, underwater craft, fast boats, drones, and seemingly innocent fishing vessels. To prevent future amphibious, subnautical, or drone-based infiltrations into Israeli territory, the Navy has deployed upgraded fast patrol boats, integrated drone surveillance and joint intelligence, and mandated a strict zero-tolerance engagement policy. The threat of a sea-based raid - alongside the use of drones, motorized paragliders, and submersibles - remains a constant danger. On Oct. 7, Hamas's Nukhba naval forces launched seven boats toward Israel. Navy sailors managed to strike five boats and eliminate 20 terrorists, but two boats reached the shore carrying 18 heavily armed Nukhba fighters. In cooperation with ground forces, the Navy established multi-layered defensive rings across sea, air, and land to back each other up and ensure continuous surveillance and interception capabilities. As part of the upgraded defenses, forces are positioned to act as a clear, aggressive buffer against sudden threats. (Jerusalem Post) U.S.-Israel Relations Pro-Israel Washington lobby AIPAC on Wednesday responded to New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman who called on Tuesday for Michigan's Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed to "stick it to AIPAC." AIPAC said the Times continues to "amplify lies about AIPAC and our 7 million American members. We are an American organization committed to strengthening bipartisan support for the U.S.-Israel alliance." "Our support for the U.S.-Israel partnership is driven by its value to America. Israel is a critical and mutually beneficial partner in the pursuit of security, peace, stability, democratic values, and prosperity. Our members are Americans. Our donors are Americans. Our Board of Directors is comprised solely of Americans, and it makes its decisions on its own. We take no direction or funding from the Israeli government, no matter who leads it." "Over the years, Mr. Friedman has dedicated considerable column space to blaming Israel for the stalled peace process. We think it's long past time for the focus to turn to the urgency and agency of Palestinians and Arab partners to take the necessary steps for a viable, independent, demilitarized Palestinian democracy: disarming Hamas in Gaza and Palestinian terrorist groups in the West Bank, reforming the corrupt Palestinian Authority, ending the glorification of violence and terrorism, and building a functioning society that isn't dependent on UN agencies, to name only a few." (X-AIPAC) UCLA Professor Judea Pearl has joined forces with David Harel, President of Israel's Academy of Science, and Moshe Vardi, Professor of Computer Science at Rice University, to fight the boycott of Israeli academics. They have already recruited 65 members of three National Academies, among them 10 Nobel Laureates, to issue a statement that essentially says, "If your institution boycotts our colleagues in Israel, count us out, we will decline any invitation to speak on your campus." "Academic boycotts, in all their manifestations, [are] fundamentally antithetical to the essence of scientific exploration, carrying harmful consequences to the global scientific community, to the junior scholars whose careers are derailed, to the boycotting institutions themselves, and to society at large." "In solidarity with our Israeli peers, we declare our unwavering professional and academic alignment with Israel's scientific community, and state our wish to be treated in the exact same manner as all our colleagues residing in Israel - subject to the very same restrictions, institutional barriers, and consequences that such discriminatory practices entail." Never mind the stupidity of boycotting a country that is at the forefront of scientific innovation and excellence, the singling out of Israel for special punishment was always inherently discriminatory and unjust. Now, prominent academics who believe in justice are giving the boycotters a taste of their own medicine. (Los Angeles Jewish Journal) Syria Over the past several months, the U.S. has dismantled much of the sanctions architecture on Syria and restored diplomatic engagement with Damascus. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024 created an opening to pull Syria out of Iran's orbit, where it had been nestled for decades. Still, it is becoming increasingly clear that, at least at the moment, Washington is making its bet based more on hope than hard evidence. Developments inside Syria suggest the ideological makeup of the country's new rulers has not changed nearly as much as Western officials might wish to believe. Beneath the new government's more polished diplomatic messaging lies an Islamist movement that continues to promote many of the same ideas that defined its origins as an al-Qaeda affiliate. The Syrian military now contains 5,000 foreign fighters who fought to topple Assad. Many of them have been accused of abuses against Syria's minority communities. The continued presence of these elements raises serious questions about the reliability of Syria's security apparatus. The issue was supposed to have been settled. Removing foreign jihadist fighters from Syria's armed forces was a central American condition for sanctions relief after Assad's fall. Yet Syrian President al-Sharaa's government has made only limited progress in doing so because these fighters remain indispensable to the new regime's hold on power. The central premise of the Trump administration's current approach is that engagement will gradually moderate the Syrian government. But moderation is difficult to achieve when a regime's political survival depends on the support of militants and the dissemination of extreme ideology. Washington needs to proceed with considerably more caution. The writer is senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council. (Washington Post) External pressure - particularly from the U.S. - is mounting for an Israeli withdrawal from the security zone Israel seized near the Golan Heights immediately after the fall of the Assad regime, and for talks with Damascus on a security arrangement, essentially a renewal of the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement following the Yom Kippur War. Syrian President al-Sharaa, in a recent interview with Al Jazeera, expressed support for a security agreement with Israel but he said this would not come at the expense of Damascus' demand for sovereignty over the Golan Heights. "The displacement from the Golan is embedded in my identity because my family comes from the area," al-Sharaa explained. In new school textbooks being published in Syria, alongside strong hostility toward Iran, they also contain negative attitudes toward Israel. There is, however, a difference from the Assad era: Israel is referred to by name and the purpose of the conflict with it is not defined as advancing toward its annihilation or as an expression of support for the Palestinian cause. In the country's media discourse and among religious figures, no one is talking about peace or normalization, but many support advancing some form of arrangement between the two countries. The writer is a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University's Moshe Dayan Center. (Ynet News) Palestinian Arabs There has never been a Palestinian state in all of history. There was never an independent Palestinian Arab country with its own government, army, currency, or capital. The word "Palestine" does not appear in the Hebrew Bible, the Christian New Testament, or the Koran. In the modern era, Palestinian Arab statehood was repeatedly put within reach and repeatedly rejected beginning in 1937. In 1947, the UN proposed dividing British Mandatory Palestine into two states, one Jewish and one Arab. The Jewish leadership said yes, and the Arab leadership said no. From 1948 to 1967, Jordan controlled Judea and Samaria, while Egypt controlled Gaza. Yet no Palestinian state was created during those years. In 1993, Israel decided to test a different path. Israel recognized the PLO, withdrew from Palestinian population centers, and helped establish the Palestinian Authority, expecting negotiations to lead to a permanent settlement. In July 2000, at Camp David under U.S. President Bill Clinton's auspices, Prime Minister Ehud Barak offered Yasser Arafat far-reaching territorial concessions, including in Jerusalem. Arafat rejected the deal. What followed was the Second Intifada. Israeli buses, restaurants, and cafes were attacked by Palestinian terrorists. In 2005, Israel withdrew its soldiers and uprooted every Jewish community from Gaza - in a test of what Israeli withdrawal could produce. Hamas seized control and turned Gaza into a terrorist fortress. Rockets were fired at Israeli towns. Terror tunnels were dug under the border. On Oct. 7, 2023, 18 years after Israel had left Gaza, it became the launching pad for the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. If Israel were really the main reason there is no Palestinian state, then the periods when Israel was absent should have produced one - from 1948 to 1967 in Judea and Samaria and Gaza, and in the years following Israel's 2005 withdrawal from Gaza. They did not. Territory surrendered by Israel was used to prepare and launch the Oct. 7 massacre. A Palestinian state under present conditions would be a gamble with millions of Israeli lives. After Oct. 7, why should Israel be expected to ignore every lesson of the past and take the same risk again? (Jerusalem Post) Arab World As the Hackney Council in east London moves towards ending its 58-year twinning with Haifa, two senior academics in the city say councilors are overlooking precisely the kind of place that should be engaged with rather than cut off. Historically, the link supported medical exchanges between Homerton Hospital in east London and Rambam Health Care Campus in Haifa. Dr. Reda Mansour, Senior Director of Global Resource Development at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, said, "Haifa is really the model of coexistence for us in Israel." Mansour, a retired Israeli diplomat, author and historian, who is Druze, said, "Living together, working together, studying together, is something that is so normal that nobody really speaks in terms of integration or diversity." Mansour describes Haifa as an important center for Israel's Arab middle class, drawing doctors, academics and other professionals from towns and villages across northern Israel. At the Technion, 23% of students are Arab. "These are students; some of them identify as Palestinian Israelis. So, you are going to boycott this Palestinian community, supposedly, to protect another Palestinian community? It doesn't make sense." Prof. Uriel Simonsohn, a historian at the University of Haifa, said, "People do not consider living with one another here as something that is exceptional." He added that there are "forces here in Israel that are very much committed to peace, to shared society, to human dignity, to liberal values, democracy. I fail to see the point of ostracizing us." Simonsohn urged council representatives to visit Haifa before reaching their final decision. "Come over. Meet with us, see what we're doing, see what people think. Ask them, go to the street, speak with people. You'll come out of it with a very different impression from the one you currently hold." (Jewish News-UK) Observations: The Elimination of Ali Khamenei Has Created a Vacuum - Amir Taheri (Gatestone Institute)
The writer was executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. |
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