| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
An American official said Sunday that the U.S. and Iran will "stand down for now" after days of strikes tested the fragile ceasefire agreement signed this month. Iran insisted it had a right to full control of the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump threatened to "complete the job" of the war he launched four months ago if Tehran did not relent on the waterway. At the heart of the ceasefire deal was an agreement to allow safe passage of vessels through the strait. Iran and the U.S. differ on whether the memorandum of understanding they signed gives Iran the ability to control which vessels can cross the strait and when. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that the "management and full reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's responsibility. Mike Waltz, U.S. ambassador to the UN, said the Iranian regime is "sadly mistaken" if it "thinks for a second that President Trump is going to sit by, stand by, while Iran continues to attack international shipping without a response." (Washington Post) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said an Iranian technical team would meet with Qatari officials about unfreezing $6 billion of frozen Iranian assets held in a Doha bank. The money has become the latest sticking point. Under the MoU, the assets were to be released as soon as that document was signed, under "mutually agree[d]" procedures. Since President Trump signed the agreement on June 18, both he and Vice President Vance, who negotiated the document, have said the money would be released only under U.S. control and would be used to purchase U.S. agricultural goods to benefit American farmers. Iranian officials have denied that was part of the agreement, saying that the government in Tehran would decide how to spend its money. The conflicting narratives followed several days of military attacks by both sides caused by differing interpretations of what they had agreed over opening the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic. Neither side announced any new attacks Monday. (Washington Post) While the U.S.-Iran deal to free up shipping in the Strait of Hormuz promises a quick cash injection for the Tehran regime, for ordinary Iranians, economic relief is likely to take much longer. Analysts estimate that Iran could gain $10 billion in the next two months from oil sales alone. Iran's balance sheet may improve within weeks, but its battered economy will likely take months or longer to feel the effect. "In the short term this is a windfall, but it isn't enough to kick-start the broader economy," said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst focusing on Iran at Eurasia Group. "Tremendous damage has been done to industries and to infrastructure in major cities and the government needs to create an impression that peace will last, that the bombing won't come back." A technician in Isfahan province said he expects the deal to have little effect on ordinary people's lives, and that the government will just channel any new cash flows to itself. "We fear the ceasefire, an agreement and the survival of the regime more than we fear war itself," he said. (Wall Street Journal) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
The IDF destroyed a fortified underground Hizbullah tunnel network in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun on Sunday. The compound, built 25 meters below ground and stretching over 200 meters, was used to store weapons, including drones, warheads and explosives. The IDF said, "The compound was built using technology and knowledge from the Iranian terror regime." Hundreds of weapons were found inside the tunnel network, along with four launch shafts aimed at Israeli territory. Israel notified the U.S. and the American representative in Lebanon ahead of the demolition. (Ynet News) After reports that the U.S. is considering providing Turkey with F-35 fighter jets and advanced jet engines, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Israeli Cabinet Sunday that "barely a day goes by without Erdogan calling for the destruction of the State of Israel." "If we have learned one thing in the history of our people - when someone says they intend to destroy you, take them seriously. We take these statements seriously, and we will also draw the attention of our American friends to these remarks. We are not ignoring them." (Ynet News) Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday that he met on Friday with the commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper. Katz said, "I agreed with him that the IDF will not withdraw from the three security zones - in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. The soldiers of the Lebanese Armed Forces will not suddenly turn into lions and charge at Hizbullah. The IDF's presence in Lebanon will be long-term." According to defense establishment estimates, there are 1,200 terrorists between the Yellow Line and the Litani River, and another 1,300 terrorists up to the Zahrani River, totaling about 2,500 Hizbullah terrorists south of the Zahrani River. Katz said, "The equation stands - rocket fire on Israeli communities means an immediate assault on the Dahieh [Hizbullah stronghold in Beirut]." "If Iran fires missiles at Israel, Israel will strike back with immense force inside Iran....The IDF is preparing to act independently in Iran, for a blue-and-white operation. The IDF is just waiting for it. We have selected targets to strike in Iran, and the IDF is prepared and alert, but we will not interfere with the U.S. President's current moves vis-a-vis the Iranians." (Israel Hayom) During a visit to Israel, Saudi journalist Abdulaziz Alkhamis and Bahraini journalist Ahdeya Ahmed Al-Sayed told a panel hosted by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs that Iran's direct attacks on Gulf states have fundamentally altered regional perceptions. Al-Sayed said, "We have a common enemy, and this enemy is not a theory anymore. It's not proxies anymore. Iran actually directly attacked Gulf states with its ballistic missiles and drones, just as it attacked Israel and Jordan." Alkhamis argued that despite official rhetoric, many Arab governments privately welcomed Israel's military campaign against Iran and its proxies. "Some countries are brave enough to say Israel did a very good job in this war and wanted Israel to continue. Others claim Israel dragged them into the conflict, but nobody believes that....The main source of instability in the region is not Israel. It is extremism, and those countries that support extremists and their barbaric actions like October 7 - especially Iran." Jerusalem Center President Dan Diker said many governments across the Arab world quietly support Israel's efforts to weaken Iran, even if they cannot publicly express that support. "Israel stands alone publicly, but it has very quiet, even embarrassed, cheerleaders across the Arab world." "As Gulf Arab countries revisit decades of appeasement of Iran and distancing themselves from Israel, it is very possible that Israel will find itself partnering with countries that until now avoided any public affiliation." (i24News) Rafael Advanced Defense Systems announced Sunday that it has signed an agreement with Romania's Ministry of National Defense for the Spyder air defense system to protect against short- to medium-range air threats, as part of a large-scale strategic agreement with an estimated value of $2.2 billion. The Spyder advanced air defense system is in operational use in several armies around the world, including Czechia and Morocco. It provides solutions against a variety of air threats, including drones, aircraft, helicopters and short-range ballistic missiles. Over the past three decades, Rafael has provided Romania with advanced tactical missile systems (SPIKE), electro-optics, and communications for all branches of its military. (Globes) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran The best selling point for President Trump's memorandum of understanding with Iran was that at least it opened the Strait of Hormuz. Now the regime is trying to nullify those terms by using force against commercial vessels, Gulf states, and U.S. bases. All of this violates the deal. This is the Battle of Hormuz that Mr. Trump thought he had ducked. The regime wants to conquer the strait and turn it into a toll booth, with transit by permission only. This is the opposite of free navigation and provides no security for energy flows. During the deal's early days, vessels sailed out via the strait's southern, Omani lane. Tehran demands that ships transit only through the Iranian lane, request access two days in advance, and sign up for special Iranian "insurance." The regime isn't respecting the deal, which mandates a ceasefire as well as Iran's "best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels." That means don't shoot at them, for starters. The hard men in Tehran behave as if they have escalation dominance because they think Mr. Trump won't return to war before the midterm elections. They see his reluctance to enforce the ceasefire terms. The regime is leaving the President a choice: surrender Hormuz to Iranian terror or fight for it and reopen the strait by force. (Wall Street Journal) Hizbullah The first clause of the Trilateral Framework, signed on June 26, states that Israel and Lebanon recognize each other as sovereign neighbors with the right to live in peace, and commit to ending the state of war between them. A Lebanese government has not put that on paper since 1983. In the 2022 maritime agreement, American officials shuttled between two rooms precisely so that the Lebanese side would never have to acknowledge Israel. This time, both governments signed in one room. What actually holds the agreement together is that Hizbullah is broken. For 20 years, the party sold its own community the idea that the resistance kept them safe and the Lebanese state did not. The war that started in February buried that idea. Hizbullah took heavy casualties and the Shia south is rubble. People who once saw the weapons as protection now look at them and see the reason their towns are flattened. None of it is safe yet. Can Tehran rearm Hizbullah before Beirut disarms it? Last time, Iran was rebuilding a confident proxy inside a state that let it happen. This time, the proxy is broken, and the state has signed its name to the other side. (Jerusalem Post) The Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, signed last week, explicitly preserves the Israel Defense Force's full freedom to act against threats in the southern Lebanon security zone, an official familiar with its contents told the Times of Israel on Sunday. The classified security annex of the deal reiterates that there will be no automatic IDF withdrawals and that any redeployments will be based on conditions on the ground. The security annex had been kept classified at the request of the Lebanese government. (Times of Israel) See also Text: Security Annex of Trilateral Framework Agreement between U.S., Israel, and Lebanon (Times of Israel) Lebanese President Joseph Aoun received approval from the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, to reach an agreement with Israel. Aoun is now expected to gain at least promises of investment from the Gulf states, which would provide a lifeline for the Lebanese economy. The Lebanese president has also received U.S. guarantees for the preservation of his rule, his personal safety, and the lives of other senior officials in his government who support the agreement with Israel and oppose Hizbullah. (Israel Hayom) Jonathan Conricus, former IDF international spokesman and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said it is "very interesting to see, very telling to see, who is for a peace deal between two sovereign states [Israel and Lebanon] and who's against it." Those truly committed to sovereignty, democracy, and peace should be welcoming a roadmap between Israel and Lebanon, not reflexively resisting it because it weakens "Iran and Hizbullah." He argues that what matters is the practical framework: a continued Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon until the situation is fit for withdrawal. This involves a tentative peace built on the weakening of Hizbullah. Before Oct. 7, Hizbullah was "very, very powerful," armed with "more than 130,000 rockets" and the ability to strike deep into Israel. After the fighting that followed, the "beeper attack," the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah and other senior commanders, and the elimination of the Radwan unit, Hizbullah's military weight had been reduced enough to create room for the chance for the Lebanese state to reassert itself. "We have now kind of turned the tables in Lebanon," he said, arguing that Israeli military action - "forced upon Israel" - unexpectedly opened the door for Lebanon to act like a sovereign state. Referring to the U.S. MoU with Iran, Conricus said the assumption that money appeases extremist regimes is one that history has already rejected. "That never happens. You give money to terrorists and terror supporters, they will use it exactly to continue to promote that agenda." (Media Line-Jerusalem Post) The flood of statements from Tehran and Hizbullah against the Lebanon-Israel framework agreement reflects their deep frustration and sense of defeat. They wonder if the commitment to Iran in the memorandum of understanding to limit Israeli activity in Lebanon was part of a "conspiracy" leading up to the signing of the Israeli-Lebanese agreement. The framework agreement demands the end of Iranian involvement in Lebanese affairs and directly links the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon to Hizbullah's disarmament, thereby refuting the claim that the IDF presence on Lebanese soil is illegitimate. Neutralizing, or at the very least significantly reducing, Iranian influence in Lebanon is critical to Israeli security. Even before discussing its disarmament, Israel must continue to prevent the rehabilitation of Hizbullah, the rebuilding of its missile arrays, and its reinforcement processes. For the foreseeable future, a military presence and operational freedom of security action will remain the key to achieving this. The writer, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, served as Israel's National Security Council head during 2017-2021. (Israel Hayom) The U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon Trilateral Framework signed Friday tries to box Iran out, focusing on disarming Hizbullah, Tehran's Lebanese Shiite proxy. Lebanon's government has reaffirmed that Hizbullah's disarmament must come first. Some Iran analysts have criticized the framework as "incompatible" with the memorandum of understanding with Iran. But Trump Administration sources tell us this framework is the U.S. interpretation of the MoU's language regarding Lebanon. On this, Vice President Vance backs Secretary of State Rubio; nobody on the Trump team wants to force Israel to cede all of southern Lebanon to Iran's proxy, as Iran demands. The framework states a reasonable desire by Israel to stop years of rocket fire on its northern towns. That means a buffer zone and defensive strikes until Hizbullah can be disarmed. Israeli officials say the deal's security annex doesn't contradict their freedom of action against emerging and developing threats. In any event, the deal shores up the diplomatic basis for Israeli counterterrorism. On Sunday, the IDF blew up a Hizbullah tunnel complex that served as a drone factory and air base, guarded by steel blast doors that opened for launches. Hizbullah wants to turn Lebanon into Gaza. The Trilateral Framework gives Beirut and Israel the best chance in years to prevent that. (Wall Street Journal) Gaza The IDF Military Intelligence Directorate and Southern Command submitted a warning last week to Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir that Hamas is preparing for renewed war with Israel, Israel's Channel 11 reported Sunday. Hamas has been producing hundreds of explosive devices and anti-tank missiles every month, has been recruiting fresh fighters, and recently restarted training for its Nukhba attack force. Hamas is also rebuilding underground infrastructure across Gaza and is trying to smuggle drones and communication devices from Sinai. In light of this information, the IDF believes it must restart its offensive against Hamas, but the U.S. is opposed to this. Washington prefers to preserve the current status quo in Gaza while continuing to advance President Trump's Board of Peace initiative. Despite the ceasefire, the IDF has been carrying out strikes in Gaza on a near-daily basis in response to violations of the truce, including thwarting plans by terrorists to attack troops. (Times of Israel) Israeli Security Since Hamas's Oct. 7, 2023, invasion, Israel's security concept has undergone a fundamental shift, underscoring the essential importance of protecting all of Israel's borders by demilitarizing the territory beyond the border, creating broad buffer zones, enabling Israel's control and monitoring mechanisms, with strategic depth and maneuverability. Establishing a buffer zone and demilitarized belt inside Gaza under Israeli control, including along the border between Gaza and Egypt, is essential to establish minimal strategic depth to prevent a repetition of Oct. 7. Before the attack, the lack of strategic depth between Israeli communities and Gaza rendered them virtually defenseless against a mass terror assault. The porousness of the Gaza-Egyptian border reflected similar strategic and existential vulnerabilities. In the North, Israel has faced ongoing threats of Hizbullah infiltration through the Lebanon-Israel border and has established a buffer and demilitarized zone to prevent hostile direct fire at Israeli communities. On the Syrian-Israeli border, threats by radical Islamist militias to invade Israel require Israel to establish buffer and demilitarized zones beyond the border with Syria. Opposite Egypt, Israel should seek a full demilitarization of the Sinai approaches to Gaza, as set in the 1979 Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty's military annex. In Judea and Samaria, securing and holding the Jordan Rift Valley and the Judea-Samaria hill ridge constitute unconditional security requirements for any prospective Palestinian entity there. Dan Diker is President of the Jerusalem Center. Yossi Kuperwasser heads the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Israel's eastern border stretches 300 km. (186 miles), yet most of it remains without a continuous physical barrier. In light of the events of Oct. 7, the Israeli government is drafting a comprehensive national plan to reinforce the eastern border. At the core of the plan lies a time-tested concept from the founding generation - "settlement equals security." Minister for Settlement and National Missions Orit Strook said, "We cannot wait until the threat materializes. We learned that we must build layers of defense in advance - not just the military, but also settlement, agriculture, communities, and young people living on the ground." Uri Sapir, the deputy CEO of HaShomer HaHadash, explained that "The solution is a strong population that sits on the border, lives there, works there, and constitutes part of the defense array." (Israel Hayom) For decades, Western diplomats and decision-makers have clung to the most dangerous belief that Islamist terrorist organizations can be persuaded through negotiations and diplomatic agreements to surrender their weapons and abandon their jihad (holy war) against Israel. More than seven months after President Trump unveiled his peace plan for Gaza, Hamas remains armed, entrenched, and firmly in control of large parts of the territory. Now Washington has brokered another ambitious agreement - between Israel and Lebanon - that seeks to restore Lebanese sovereignty by eventually disarming Hizbullah and dismantling its military infrastructure. Unfortunately, the Lebanon agreement risks proving impossible to implement because it rests on a false assumption: that terrorist organizations honor agreements and voluntarily disarm. Washington continues to negotiate as if Hamas were a rational political movement rather than a jihadist organization whose declared objective is Israel's destruction. It continues to recruit fighters, rebuild its military infrastructure, and prepare for future attacks against Israel. Its leaders openly reject demands to disarm while insisting that the group's weapons are "non-negotiable." The framework agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon deserves recognition for several positive elements. It formally commits both countries to pursue peaceful relations, seeks to restore the authority of the Lebanese state, provides for a process aimed at dismantling Hizbullah's military infrastructure, and includes an important provision designed to prevent reconstruction funds from reaching Hizbullah. The problem is that Hizbullah has already made clear that it has no intention of allowing the agreement to succeed. (Gatestone Institute) October 7 Eliya Cohen was with his girlfriend, Ziv Abud, at the Nova Festival on Oct. 7, 2023. As they tried to drive away from the rocket fire, they stopped at a bomb shelter. Eliiya said, "More people joined us in the shelter, but we were all talking and joking. Although it was scary, we had seen it before." "Then suddenly the terrorists were outside the shelter and they were going to kill us. A grenade rolled into the shelter and exploded. Another grenade and we are fighting, picking up the grenades and throwing them out of the door. It was like this for 40 minutes until the terrorists fired a rocket-propelled grenade." "Ziv fainted and I knew the only chance to save her was to bury her underneath the dead bodies. Two of those bodies were her nephew and his girlfriend." Eliya was shot in the leg and "then I was dragged out and loaded onto a truck. The last thing I saw was a terrorist pointing his gun into the shelter and firing a hundred bullets. I was sure Ziv was dead." "I was driven to Gaza and thousands of people were on the streets celebrating. I was more scared of these people than I was of the terrorists. The terrorists wanted to keep me alive, a hostage for negotiation. Those ordinary people wanted to kill me. They wanted the respect that would come from killing a Jew." "I was held for 505 days. In the tunnels was the worst - no light, no sleep, beatings, being stripped naked so they could laugh at us, no food, no water." And then he was released. Ziv tells her story: "The bomb shelter we were in on that day in 2023 - on Route 232 near Kibbutz Re'im - is now known as the shelter of death. The first grenade exploded and the sound, the smell, the dead bodies...not even bodies, arms and legs and blood. I was scared like I have never been scared before." "The last thing I remember is holding Eliya's hand and him covering me with dead bodies....I woke up at 11 a.m. and the attack had started at eight. There was me and six other survivors in the shelter, and we had no idea what was going to happen. Would the terrorists come back? We sat with our dead friends for seven hours until we were rescued." "When he was finally released and I saw him again, after 16 months, he was so thin, my Eliya, and like a ghost. When I was a child I heard people talk about the Holocaust and how much people hated Jews, but I thought that people had changed. Then I saw marches all over Europe, defending what had happened." "Of the people who were murdered, we knew 48 of them....I suffer from PTSD and still have nightmares." (Sunday Times-UK) Over two years after the terrorist attack that triggered the Israel-Gaza war, October 7 survivors are attempting to heal by recounting the memories that still keep them up at night. Recounting her story at the Nova Exhibition in London on Thursday, Mia Schem, 24, routinely had to take pauses as she became choked up. She was shot in the arm and her wound was allowed to deteriorate. "They didn't give me any medicine...My body was broken, it's a miracle that I have a hand, I don't know how I survived 55 days without treatment." She was tormented by her guard's wife, who she describes as cruel, depriving Schem of water for days at a time. Hadar Sharvit told the Daily Mail how she and her friend got stuck in a traffic jam and were forced to escape on foot. As terrorists closed in on them, they hid under a bush. "'I'm lying down, with my face on the ground. The terrorists are ten meters from me, and they're shooting....All the police officers that were around me got killed....Everywhere, people were screaming, begging for their lives, getting murdered, and being abused by terrorists. The smell was unbelievable. Burnt bodies, blood, fire." When their hiding place began to erupt in flames, they ran for their lives and reached an army checkpoint. Her PTSD was so severe that every knock on the door reminded her of a bomb or a grenade. She wasn't able to sleep with the light off, nor was she able to drive. She has also struggled with her memory, feels anger, and copes everyday with the strain of survivor's guilt, knowing that so many others died. Nevertheless, she says, "For me, to stay alive after this, it's a gift." Omer Wenkert, 25, was kidnapped as a hostage at the Nova festival, where his close friend, Kim Damti, was killed by grenades as the pair hid together in a bomb shelter. Alone, starved and abused in an underground tunnel, Wenkert was released after 505 days of torment on February 22, 2025. He told the Daily Mail he was beaten with an iron rod, had pesticides sprayed all over his body and his eyes, and lost 36 kg. due to food deprivation. (Mail on Sunday-UK) Observations: The Lebanese Government Must Replace Hizbullah in Providing Services to the Population - Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yitzhak Gershon (Ynet News)
The writer served as IDF Home Front Command chief and as deputy commander of Northern Command. |
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