| DAILY ALERT |
Tuesday, July 14, 2026 |
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
President Trump told Fox News on Monday: "We're taking over the strait [of Hormuz]....We had a deal. It was a done deal and then they broke it. They always break it. We've had 10 deals with these people, and so we're just going to hit them very hard....We'll become the guardian of the strait." (Roll Call) See also Trump: If the Iranians Ever Had a Nuclear Weapon, They'd Use It within One Day President Trump told Hugh Hewitt's radio show on Monday: "[The Iranians] make deals and, to them, deals are made to be broken. They are extremely unreliable people. And, frankly, if they ever had a nuclear weapon, they'd use it within one day....We're going to hit them very hard tonight. And we're going to hit them hard tomorrow." (Roll Call) Gen. (ret.) Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command, told CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday: "We certainly have the capability to control the Strait of Hormuz if the president chooses to follow that course of action....That would include opening the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining the Strait of Hormuz open, and in fact, seizing Kharg Island, should we elect to do that....That's something we should think about doing because possession of Iranian soil would be a significant factor in future negotiations with Iran." "We have not deployed all the capabilities that we have to open the Strait. We certainly can do that....If you want to gain concessions from Iran, you have to directly pressure the regime, and you have to do so in a way that perhaps is existential to them. We have those capabilities should the president choose to go that way." "What Iran wants to do is extend negotiations in time, arguing about the size of the table, who's in the room, the font on the document, everything except the core issues. We need to recognize that, and we need to be prepared to pressure Iran to negotiate on the real germane issues...opening the Strait of Hormuz, some movement on ballistic missiles, some movement on support for proxies. We are capable of getting some form of movement on all those things. We just have to be willing to put pressure on Iran in order to achieve those goals." (CBS News) On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a sweeping campaign to dismantle the threat posed by the International Criminal Court to U.S. sovereignty. The campaign will seek to systematically disable the ICC's ability to operate and target American servicemen or officials. The ICC poses an intolerable threat to U.S. sovereignty. It claims the authority to prosecute and even imprison American servicemen and officials operating on behalf of America's national interest. Americans never signed up for this, and all American presidents since the ICC's ratification have maintained that the ICC does not have jurisdiction over Americans. The ICC previously opened an investigation into U.S. servicemen and intelligence officers and has since refused to close these cases. (U.S. State Department) See also Why We're Dismantling the International Criminal Court - Secretary of State Marco Rubio America never agreed to a world tribunal that can override our own courts and the Constitution. Both of our major political parties opposed the prospect of handing a distant global court the power to prosecute and jail our own citizens. President Clinton refused to submit the Rome Statute (the ICC's founding charter) to the Senate for ratification due to his "concerns about significant flaws in the Treaty." Independence is our birthright. We don't intend to trade it for rule by a self-appointed priesthood of "international law." Using all the tools at our government's disposal, working beside every ally with whom we can make common cause, we will dismantle the ICC - brick by brick, if necessary. (Wall Street Journal) UN Deputy Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Ramiz Alakbarov, on Monday accused Hamas of interfering with humanitarian deliveries in Gaza and intimidating aid workers. (Asharq Al-Awsat-UK) See also Statement by UN Humanitarian Coordinator "I strongly condemn the recent obstruction of humanitarian operations in Gaza by the de facto authorities [Hamas], which endangered humanitarian personnel, intimidated workers delivering lifesaving food assistance and disrupted life-saving humanitarian operations. Yesterday, humanitarian workers were forced to halt food distributions after armed personnel affiliated with the de facto authorities forcibly entered the Abu Rashid food distribution point in Jabalia, North Gaza. The forces also entered a WFP (World Food Program) warehouse and reportedly assaulted two truck drivers who were delivering humanitarian supplies." "These incidents are not isolated. They are completely unacceptable and reflect an increasingly dangerous pattern of intimidation, violence and obstruction, including smuggling attempts, targeting and abusing humanitarian operations." (Reliefweb) Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter told "Face the Nation" on Sunday: "When the United States signed the MOU with Iran just a few weeks ago, there was one item, just one thing, that the Iranians had to fulfill, and that was keeping the strait open. And that they've completely ignored. So they forced the U.S. to go back into kinetic activity. We're a partner, we're an ally. If the United States calls on us to rejoin kinetic activity against Iran, we're going to be there for the United States." "I'm actually leading the negotiations on Israel's behalf with Lebanon....What the agreement with Lebanon does is completely remove Iran from the paradigm. Iran is not to be involved in Lebanon. They have no business in Lebanon. Hizbullah has no business in Lebanon....We can withdraw the moment that Hizbullah is dismantled. If Hizbullah is not dismantled, then we have to stay in our security zone." (CBS News) UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has announced Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will be designated a threat to national security. Mahmood will use new government powers to ban support for the group, which has been linked to death threats, attacks and intimidation in the UK. Support for the IRGC, from expressing a positive opinion to assisting them, will now be an offense punishable by up to 14 years in prison. Iran's IRGC is believed to have directed seven attacks at UK locations linked to Jewish and Israeli communities. MI5 identified at least 20 potentially lethal Iranian-backed plots against people in the UK in the last year. The EU added the IRGC to its terror list in January. (BBC News) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
On Monday, the U.S. closed the Strait of Hormuz to ships and oil tankers traveling to and from Iran, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear that the Revolutionary Guards would not relinquish control of the strait. The Gulf states are furious over renewed Iranian attacks on their territory and are taking part in U.S. attacks on Iran. After a brief period in which Washington pursued a diplomatic track, with Qatar playing an active role in mediation efforts, they are returning to their fundamental position: seeking the removal of the Iranian threat by force. Two Gulf diplomatic officials told Israel Hayom that a unified message to that effect was delivered to Washington over the weekend, including full support for the resumption of strikes. The shift in policy was partly driven by Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, including Qatar and its natural gas facilities. Qatar, which had previously blocked a unified Gulf position against Iran, withdrew its opposition following the attacks on its territory. (Israel Hayom) If President Trump sells F-35 aircraft to Turkey, Israeli defense officials believe the Turks could work around American limits placed on the aircraft, the Jerusalem Post has learned. Since no country has successfully detected the F-35 stealth aircraft, Turkey could theoretically attack Israel with no warning. In another nightmare scenario, Turkey could provide Syria, or even Iran, with the capacity to track F-35s. (Jerusalem Post) Responding to a request from Honduran President Nasry Asfura, Israel sent an emergency ophthalmology mission to treat Hondurans suffering from serious eye conditions. The Israeli delegation completed the first stage of its work Tuesday after treating 155 patients, including 136 who successfully underwent eye surgery. Additional medical equipment, professional training, and another Israeli delegation are planned for later this year. Asfura, who comes from a family of Palestinian origin, has overseen a sharp change in Honduras foreign policy since his election, altering the country's voting pattern at the UN in Israel's favor. (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran The Iranians have no plans to negotiate an end to their nuclear program and are targeting countries ranging from Oman to Jordan. This isn't peace. It isn't even a ceasefire. The U.S. has believed for 80 years that ensuring the free passage of Middle Eastern oil and gas to world markets is essential to America's prosperity and security. President Trump is unwilling to give Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz. We shouldn't underestimate the sense of joy and vindication that a global wave of anti-Zionism and Jew-hatred have given to the darkened hearts and minds of Iran's current leadership. Their resistance and defiance, they and their proxies in Lebanon and beyond believe, is turning the global tide against the hated "Zionist entity." They expect America will soon turn against Israel, and the holiest of holy wars can finally begin. Mr. Trump may be feeling more confident and less risk-averse than the Iranian leaders believe. Iran's assassination threats are more likely to enrage than to cow him. He will likely find it easier to build support abroad and at home for a war to protect oil supplies by stopping Iran's blocking of the strait than he did for a preventive war against its nuclear program. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Strategy and Statecraft at the University of Florida. (Wall Street Journal) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) R. commanded the Israeli Air Force control center on the night of the first strikes on Iran on June 13, 2025 - the start of the 12-Day War. He recalled, "The moment our aircraft took off toward Iran, U.S. planes routinely stationed in Iraq unexpectedly landed at their bases, clearing the skies. We could clearly see the Iranians saying to themselves, 'If the skies over Iraq have cleared, maybe the Israelis are coming for us tonight.'" "The Air Force commander immediately called senior CENTCOM officers and asked them to take off again at once and restore the usual aerial picture. In the spirit of the excellent cooperation we have with them, they said, 'Whatever you need, we're with you. What do you need?' The Air Force commander told them, 'Do exactly what you did yesterday at this time.'" By then, however, Iran had already realized that something was happening and targets began moving. "We instructed our aircraft to hold just minutes before releasing their munitions," R. said. Then, Israeli defense officials detected that the Iranian side was beginning to relax. Fearing that the targets might disperse to different locations, then-Air Force commander Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar ordered personnel to "make a little noise so their suspicions would return." Not only did the senior Iranian commanders remain in place, but more officials arrived after being summoned for consultations. "At 2:43 a.m., our first munitions struck their targets. We fired the opening shot with great success, and the entire Air Force took off. Its targets included command-and-control sites, surface-to-surface missile sites and air-superiority targets - everything we had defined in advance. From that point, the blitz began, wave after wave after wave, in a highly impressive manner." (Ynet News) As far as Tehran is concerned, it never signed anything guaranteeing free movement through the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, the MoU contains no sentence restoring business as usual in the strait, no guarantee of complete freedom of maritime passage. What it does say is that Iran and Oman will establish some set of arrangements for passage. For the first time in its modern history, this hands Iran genuine leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and the Iranians are not about to let it go. They are further emboldened by what they read as American weakness. So they keep attacking ships across Hormuz. The Israelis regarded the MoU from the outset as a flawed document that left deep ambiguity on a range of issues. They understood the advantage it conferred on the Iranians. It was the recommendation of Israel's defense establishment not to halt the war during the ceasefire and MoU negotiations - to keep hitting the Iranians, and to hit them hard, so they would grasp that this was not a retreat, and certainly not a surrender. Hizbullah and Hamas are emboldened now, pressing new demands in the war's aftermath, pointing out that their patron was not broken - not by the region's most powerful military, Israel, nor by the world's foremost superpower, the U.S. Senior Israeli sources say that Tehran may now believe it has trapped the Trump administration into a kind of submission - a misreading for anyone who actually knows this administration. The writer is a Senior Scholar at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). (Substack) President Trump has apparently had enough of the strange game being played by Iran. He has realized that the faction actually running things is the extremist camp led by the Revolutionary Guards. He has decided, therefore, to hit the IRGC and renew the blockade on Iranian ports. What we are seeing now is a war of attrition that is developing in a pattern that actually serves Israeli interests and prevents the removal of sanctions and the end of American military and diplomatic pressure on Iran. The U.S. is not prepared to allow senior IRGC officials to claim that they won the war because they acquired the Strait of Hormuz for themselves - a profitable economic asset and a global strategic lever. (Ynet News) The prominence of red flags - a Shiite Muslim symbol for vengeance - among the mourners attending the weeklong funeral of Iran's late supreme leader was considered a statement that the country should continue its 47-year confrontation with the U.S. The hard-liners "are attempting to use the atmosphere of mourning, national insecurity and opposition to negotiations to narrow the range of politically acceptable debate and to portray compromise as both strategically dangerous and morally illegitimate," said Saeid Golkar, a professor at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, who studies Iran's security forces. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the Kayhan newspaper, whose columns often reflect hard-line thinking, wrote a front-page editorial last week titled "We Want Trump's Head," which demanded that the government declare the U.S. president a legitimate target and offer a hefty reward for his killing. Hard-line regime supporters are generally estimated at up to 20% of Iran's 93 million population. (New York Times) The 60-day ceasefire, brokered on June 17 to end the war between the U.S. and Israel on Iran that began on Feb. 28 was effectively imposed on Israel. Iran's military capabilities were severely degraded, but its nuclear and missile programs were not destroyed. Both Iran and the U.S. do not want a renewal of the war. But if an all-out war remerges, the Israeli plan is to go all out and destroy most of Iran's military and civilian infrastructure, including power stations, oil and gas installations, water supplies, and industrial sites. (Spectator-UK) The war in the Gulf that everyone thought had ended has been revived. The critical Strait of Hormuz has become pivotal to the entire conflict with Iran, which is using its geographical proximity to force the strait's closure. Iran has interpreted the memorandum of understanding as giving it carte blanche to dictate the progress of traffic when it stated that "Iran will use its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels." Given the benefits that would accrue to Iran from the terms of the memorandum, the continued attacks on Gulf shipping confirm that we are not dealing with rational actors - and certainly not those who will adhere to any peace treaty that may be negotiated. (Telegraph-UK) "There is no ceasefire in cybersecurity," Julia Kogan Ehrlich, a cybersecurity executive and former officer in the IDF's Unit 8200, said in an interview. "Our infrastructure is constantly under attack." The Israel National Cyber Directorate disclosed that Iranian cyberattacks on Israel tripled during the recent war, reaching 4,800 significant attacks. The significant attacks had the potential to damage "critical infrastructure, healthcare organizations, hospitals, even clinics." AI enables the attacks to become automated. "The battlefield is not people against people anymore. Sometimes it's a machine against humans." In the war with Iran, it has been closer to AI vs. AI, an arena in which Israel is among the world leaders. (Jerusalem Post) Syria Lebanon and Syria both pose serious security challenges to Israel, but the nature of those challenges is fundamentally different. In Lebanon, the main problem is clear: Hizbullah. In Syria, the challenge is broader, more unstable and still unresolved. In Lebanon, Israel knows what it is dealing with. The question is how to push the Hizbullah threat back from the border and ensure that it stays there. Syria is a different story. It is a country that has been shattered by years of civil war, institutional collapse, Iranian entrenchment, Russian influence, militia activity, jihadist groups and deep internal mistrust. It remains to be seen whether the new leadership can actually control southern Syria. A paper arrangement is not enough if the south remains vulnerable to militias, extremists, local strongmen or outside powers. As someone who commanded "Operation Good Neighbor" on the Syrian border for years, I learned that southern Syria is villages, clans, minorities, fears, grievances and fragile local structures. In such an environment, a security vacuum can quickly become a strategic threat. Israel must therefore be careful not to confuse hopeful rhetoric with operational reality. That is why the right Israeli approach toward Syria at this stage is a gradual security arrangement, built step by step and verified on the ground. The first need is a coordination mechanism that reduces the risk of misunderstandings and military friction. The next need is a practical commitment to prevent Iranian forces, proxy militias and jihadist groups from entrenching themselves in southern Syria. If the man in charge in Syria emerged from the world of jihad, the real test for Israel is behavior. Can he keep jihadist groups out of the south? Can he prevent Iranian entrenchment? Can he protect minorities? Can he stop the border from becoming a launchpad for future violence? In Syria, the right policy is caution, phased coordination, and strict verification. For Israel, caution is not hesitation. It is strategy. The writer, who lives with his family in Kibbutz Dafna on Israel's northern border, previously founded and commanded "Operation Good Neighbor" on the Israeli-Syrian border - Israel's secret humanitarian mission to rescue Syrian civilians during the civil war. (JNS) U.S.-Israel Relations Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) headed to the West Bank, intentionally directing his entourage into a restricted zone, then pretended he'd been taken hostage. In reality, he was briefly stopped by local security; after the army checked out his story he was free to proceed. Khanna's subsequent whining that it's "illegal" for an "American citizen" to be stopped in a high-security area in another country is not only absurd, it's the ultimate entitled "ugly American" behavior. Any American, even an elected official, who makes an unscheduled and unannounced trip to a contained area in some other part of the world would reasonably expect to be stopped and questioned. (New York Post) See also Israeli Ambassador Disputes Rep. Ro Khanna's Account of West Bank Incident Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter said Tuesday: Congressman Ro Khanna was offered to coordinate his visit with the State of Israel and he chose to ignore that offer. He chose to conduct his visit accompanied by Palestinian activists, and, for some reason, New York Times journalists with cameras at the ready. Mr. Khanna and his entourage entered what was believed to be a closed military zone without permission. The military had no prior knowledge of him going there, due to his refusal to coordinate with them. The vehicle they stopped was unknown to them and therefore provoked suspicion. The moment details of the Congressman's identity were cleared, he was free to go. At no point was the congressman, or any member of his party, threatened by the soldiers, or civilians bearing arms. The Congressman used this instance as an opportunity to tout "genocide" and "apartheid" libels to the press, propelling himself to the center of yet another anti-Israel media frenzy. This was a cheap, anticipated provocation, that could and should have been avoided. I'd be happy to host Congressman Khanna at our embassy for an in-depth conversation on his grievances regarding Israel. (X) Antisemitism Four years ago, the Church of England apologized for 800 years of Christian antisemitism, marking the 1222 Synod of Oxford, which imposed new taxes on English Jews, compelled them to wear identifying badges, and banned them from most jobs. On July 12, the Church's General Synod debated one of the most appalling pieces of contemporary antisemitic propaganda in modern Christian history. Titled "A Moment of Truth: Faith in a Time of Genocide," the report seems to defend the terror group Hamas, saying their Oct. 7 massacre of 2023 was "born out of decades of injustice, oppression and displacement since the Nakba of 1948." It uncritically refers to the "genocidal war on Gaza," and adds: "This genocide has been carried out by Israel after decades of apartheid, settler colonialism, political repression." The Synod will vote on whether or not to make the document one that it will use going forward. The document describes Palestinians as the "indigenous people of the land" and criticizes the Abraham Accords that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. It is little wonder that the Jewish Board of Deputies has claimed the document "risks real harm to Jews in the UK through its dissemination," while Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis said it was "little more than political activism dressed up as theology." He added: "It is truly shocking that a document which purports to speak in the name of truth contains so much falsehood - using extreme rhetoric to challenge the very concept of a Jewish state, and to oppose existing peace agreements in the region." If the Synod endorses the document, the Church will be guilty not only of antisemitism in its most modern form, but also of the greatest betrayal of Britain's Jews in centuries. (Telegraph-UK) See also Church of England Backs Study of Palestinian Document Accusing Israel of Genocide - Kelly Hartog The Church of England's legislative body voted Monday to encourage churches across England to engage with a document produced by Palestinian Christians that accuses Israel of genocide, despite requests from Jewish organizations and Britain's chief rabbi to reject it. (JTA) Islam and the West Peaceful coexistence between the Islamic and non-Muslim worlds is possible only under specific political and theological conditions. Current realities make such coexistence difficult. Many Western observers fail to appreciate how deeply religion and inherited legal traditions shape political behavior in Muslim societies, leading them to expect agreements, compromises, and diplomatic formulas that may not mean the same thing to all sides. One of the key barriers to peaceful coexistence is the Western concept of permanence. Westerners believe disputes can be permanently settled. The Muslim world does not. Another is the concept of "peace" itself. The Muslim world does not see "peace" as the natural state of mankind. Lasting harmony between Muslim and non-Muslim societies would require both the reinterpretation of Muslim sources and strategic clarity within the non-Muslim societies. We are not there yet. Coexistence is possible - but only when ideas, incentives, and power align. Territorially, the Muslim world divides the world into two realms: the world where Islam rules and the world where Islam does not yet rule. These worlds are in constant conflict and will continue to be until the entire world succumbs to Muslim rule. Does this imply that all Muslims are united in this fight against the non-Muslim world? Clearly not. Muslims live in unending conflict with each other. Their differences are based on the social structures in their societies and on unending/unsolvable conflicts between families, clans, and ethnic and religious identities. If Muslims cannot live in peace with each other, how can we expect them to live in peace with non-Muslims? There are many Muslims who do not accept this view of the world, but these Muslims rarely dare to say so publicly, because they fear being assassinated by Muslims who disagree with them. While Western governments may view a signed agreement as a permanent legal settlement, the Muslim world, by and large, sees such agreements as nothing more than steps toward achieving its own political goals. Their signatures on these pieces of paper are not as sacrosanct as they are in the Western world. The Muslim world now sees the West as weak and unwilling to stop it from overwhelming us. The writer, a fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, served as an adviser on the Islamic world for the U.S. Department of Defense for 28 years. (Jewish Policy Center) Other Issues A Hamas document brought back from Gaza by the IDF, handwritten by Yahya al-Sinwar, head of the Hamas political bureau in Gaza and dated August 24, 2022, presented the plan to invade Israel in detail, including the rapid seizure of 25 junctions and more than 220 communities, kibbutzim, "small and large" cities and military installations. To that end, he estimated that a force of 10,000 "well-trained fighters" would be required. The document included instructions to "expel the settlers" and to take men between the ages of 17 and 50 hostage. (What actually occurred was that women, children and elderly people were taken hostage.) The document shows that the attack was based on a structured operational concept of destruction, prepared meticulously and in secrecy. (Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center) Most people only see Israel through the news. This is the most toxic lens. Antisemitism and anti-Zionism are at record levels. Some claim that because Zionism has become so toxic, Judaism is better off without it. But Zionism is the fuel for modern Judaism. It's the flame we kept lit for 1900 years after the destruction of the Second Temple turned us into wandering Jews at the mercy of our hosts. Visiting Israel, as I did last month, helps one see the Israel beyond the toxic headlines. A people comprising a hundred different nationalities gathered from around the world after centuries of separation and revived the Hebrew language. That ingathering reminds us that we're more than a religion - we're a people. Israel, and everything it has accomplished, has given Judaism a spine. After two millennia of insecurity and persecution, Israel shows us a way of being Jewish that is the opposite of weakness. "The mere existence of the State of Israel reinforces our ability to assert our identity wherever we are," writes Adela Cojab in Young Zionist Voices (2024). There is news, and there is eternal truth. Those who are sticking by Israel are going with eternal truth. (Los Angeles Jewish Journal) Observations: Israel's Buffer-Zone Military Strategy - Jonathan Spyer (Wall Street Journal)
The writer is director of research at the Middle East Forum. |
|