| DAILY ALERT |
Sunday, June 14, 2026 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
The U.S. and Iran are expected to finalize a deal Sunday to extend their ceasefire, President Donald Trump and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said, though Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said no agreement would be signed Sunday. (Washington Post) See also U.S. Downs Iranian Attack Drones Attempting to Strike Commercial Ships in Strait of Hormuz on Saturday U.S. Central Command said Saturday: "Iran launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces have downed all of them in recent hours as traffic flow through the strait continues unimpeded. The international trade corridor remains open for transit." (X-CENTCOM) In recent weeks, Iran has dramatically escalated efforts to seal off its cache of near bomb-grade uranium, deliberately collapsing tunnels and booby-trapping entrances with explosive mines, making access to the half-a-ton of highly-enriched uranium far more difficult, according to five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence. (CNN) Federal prosecutors unsealed an indictment Wednesday against eight pro-Palestinian activists accused of conspiring to run a criminal intimidation campaign against University of Michigan officials. The indictment describes threats and vandalism at officials' homes, some businesses, and the Jewish Federation of Detroit. U.S. Attorney Jerome Gorgon Jr. said, "Attempts to terrorize government officials, businesses, and the Jewish Federation are anti-American. We will counter intimidation with justice." Fake bloody corpses were placed in an elected university board member's yard and anti-Israel messages were spray-painted at the home of the school's president. Two glass jars filled with a blue substance were thrown through a window at the home of the university provost. Board member Jordan Acker said his home, car and law office were vandalized with paint. All eight are charged with conspiracy to transmit threats through interstate commerce, but some face more charges than others. (AP-Washington Post) See also What We Learned from the Federal Charges Against a Pro-Hamas Ring - Seth Mandel No one in the U. of Michigan case is being punished for protesting. They are being indicted for behavior they knew fell into the category of federal criminal conspiracy. They threatened their victims, handed them a list of demands, and then used the anniversary of Hamas's attacks to vandalize the families' homes in the middle of the night, leaving painted assassination threats. In some cases, they spread loose nails and threw stink bombs. They confronted staff at the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Detroit and threatened: "I'll be back...we're going to come back with lots of people." The group posted a message: "Our duty to Palestine is to damage, disrupt, and destroy the colonizers' operations by any means necessary. We call on revolutionaries across the world to take decisive, escalatory action....Glory to our martyrs, power to our freedom fighters!" This is the rhetoric of lunatics, precisely the kind of psychotic terror-worshiping loose cannons you'd want law enforcement keeping an eye on. (Commentary) See also U. of Michigan Students and Graduates Charged with Violent, Anti-Israel Plot to Terrorize University, Jews - Adam Kredo (Washington Free Beacon) Four British pro-Palestinian activists were sentenced over a 2024 raid on a factory operated by Israeli defense firm Elbit which caused more than 1 million pounds of damage, with the judge giving longer terms after determining there was a "terrorism connection." Charlotte Head, 30, Samuel Corner, 23, Leona Kamio, 30, and Fatema Zainab Rajwani, 21, members of the banned group Palestine Action, assaulted the Elbit Systems UK facility in Bristol. Corner, who hit a police officer with a sledgehammer, was sentenced to seven years and eight months. Kamio and Head were sentenced to five years, while Rajwani was sentenced to four years and eight months. (Reuters-CNN) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
A senior diplomatic source told Israel Hayom that if a deal is reached to end the war with Iran, Israel would be able to defend itself against threats, but its conduct must be coordinated with the U.S. The source said Trump promised Netanyahu that the nuclear issue would be resolved in the most complete manner; otherwise there would be no deal. Trump said all the reasons that led the two countries to go to war would be addressed, including the issue of missiles and support for regional terrorist organizations. According to the source, the issue of Lebanon remains open, with the understanding that the rules of the most recent ceasefire agreement remain in force, under which Israel is permitted to strike whenever an emerging threat against it arises. (Israel Hayom) See also IDF Strikes Hizbullah in Beirut in Response to Drone Attacks - Itamar Eichner The IDF targeted a Hizbullah command center in Beirut's Dahieh district on Sunday after Hizbullah launched three UAVs that exploded inside Israeli territory. (Ynet News) In the last few weeks, the IDF has advanced past the Litani River in Lebanon and is now approaching the Zaharani River. Defense officials believe that if Hizbullah could be cleared out south of the Zaharani River, the threat to Israel's northern border villages would shrink dramatically. (Jerusalem Post) Lt.-Col. B., 37, is the outgoing commander of the IDF's Maglan special forces unit, which has seen months of continuous fighting and deep ground operations in Lebanon. He described what he sees as the collapse of Hizbullah's defensive network. "I think we are fighting an organization that has been badly beaten," he said. "A year and a half ago, Hizbullah was still fighting us directly. Today, it barely dares to create friction with the army. It is simply retreating. Their commanders are sending them into southern Lebanon simply to die, and they are trying to avoid engaging us face to face." He described the destruction of Hizbullah's underground complex beneath Beaufort Ridge, north of the Litani River, in an area used to attack Israeli communities in northern Israel. He described "an underground city" with food and water supplies lasting months, operating rooms and a fully equipped underground hospital capable of treating wounded fighters. "We found an insane amount of weapons and huge warehouses containing hundreds of explosive devices that were intended to be deployed along the roads. Above all, you see a clear Iranian fingerprint....A project built over decades became irrelevant within a single week." (Ynet News) In one of the tunnels beneath Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon, IDF troops discovered maps outlining northern Israel communities that border Lebanon. The tunnel network reportedly can accommodate hundreds of Hizbullah operatives across multiple rooms designed for long-term use. The rooms include living quarters, plumbing, electrical infrastructure, and extensive anti-tank and aerial defense arrays. (Jerusalem Post) "Hizbullah's image as Lebanon's protector collapsed long ago," said Dr. Yossi Mansharof, a researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy. "But now its image as the protector of the Shiites is also beginning to crumble. Hizbullah is at a low point in terms of its legitimacy, both inside the country and within the Shiite community." Over the past two weeks, the IDF has expanded the ground maneuver in Lebanon, crossing the Litani River at several points. While the IDF tends not to report on its progress in southern Lebanon, statements by Hizbullah make it possible to understand where Israeli forces are located, as do satellite images, which show where buildings have recently been destroyed. Based on this data, four active fronts can be identified in which the IDF is advancing beyond the previous yellow line. Field commanders who have recently encountered Hizbullah report that its combat standard has declined significantly. Nevertheless, Hizbullah is still carrying out dozens of operations every day against IDF soldiers. According to the Alma Research and Education Center, over the past week Hizbullah carried out 198 attacks, 168 of them aimed at IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon and 30 at Israeli territory. That same week, the IDF carried out 436 strikes, half of them north of the Litani. Hizbullah has suffered an estimated 8,000 dead and thousands more wounded since Oct. 7, out of 50,000-80,000 regular and reserve operatives - 10% of its manpower, an enormous number by any measure - including hundreds of its most skilled fighters. Yet Hizbullah has recruited new fighters by lowering the age of its recruits. Dozens of Hizbullah's dead in recent weeks have been teenagers. (Israel Hayom) A new campaign organized by a group of Palestinian activists, exiled social media influencers, and journalists, mostly from Gaza, calls on Gazans to take to the streets on June 26 to protest Hamas rule and the current reality they face. "The people of Gaza need to rebuild their lives. The suffering has to stop," said Gazan journalist Abed al-Hamid Abed al-Ati, who now lives in Cairo. "People have been displaced and left in tents, and they're just not seeing, at least for now, any real signs on the ground that their lives are about to significantly change and get better soon. We reject the continuation of this war. It needs to end." "Those responsible for bringing war and destruction upon us do not deserve to continue leading and should relinquish power. An entire people has been punished because of the reckless gamble of one organization." (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran Ahmad Vahidi, 67, commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has emerged as a key power broker in Iran who is pushing a hard line at the negotiating table with Washington. The Revolutionary Guard and those close to it have stood as the biggest obstacle to an agreement. For months, Vahidi, whose predecessor was killed on the first day of the war, has tussled with more public-facing, political figures in the Iranian leadership. Each time, he has come out on top. Vahidi was a founding member of the Revolutionary Guard and took charge of its intelligence branch in 1982. He helped establish the Quds Force, which specialized in training foreign militias to attack Iran's enemies, and became its first commander in 1988. In the 1990s, he helped develop Hizbullah into the dominant military force in Lebanon. Vahidi was sanctioned by the U.S. for helping oversee a crackdown on protests over women's rights in 2022 and is wanted by Interpol for helping orchestrate the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people and injured hundreds more. Throughout the war, Vahidi has frequently overruled Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian, said Arab, Iranian and European officials. (Wall Street Journal) It all depends on the question you ask. If you ask why Israel and the U.S. haven't already succeeded at regime change, then Iran is the winner. But if you speak to top IDF and Mossad officials, immediate regime change was never in play - that the most the current war could achieve was to help improve conditions for regime change. The real goals of the last two wars with Iran in June 2025 and early 2026 were to push back two existential threats by a couple of years: nuclear weapons and massive ballistic missile volumes. Those two primary goals were unequivocally achieved. Israel has failed to defeat Iran, Hizbullah, and Hamas. But Israel has thoroughly bludgeoned and weakened all of those enemies in ways that cannot be restored in a year or two, and may not be fully restorable. (Jerusalem Post) Iran has treated international commitments as instruments of convenience, complying when under acute pressure and accelerating forbidden activities when that pressure eases. Verification has always been the Achilles' heel. Iran's territory, history of undeclared facilities, and demonstrated ability to delay or obstruct inspectors make robust, real-time monitoring extraordinarily difficult. Even the 2015 JCPOA's relatively intrusive provisions proved insufficient once political will in key capitals wavered. Enforcement mechanisms, whether snapback sanctions or military consequences, have depended on sustained U.S. and allied commitment - something that has proven elusive across administrations. Military pressure alone has not transformed the regime's ideology or behavior. The Islamic Republic's core opposition to U.S. influence and support for regional proxies has survived leadership losses and battlefield setbacks. Long-term strategy against Iran has repeatedly foundered on domestic political shifts. Iran's leadership has learned to play for time, calculating that U.S. policy coherence rarely survives a single presidential term. Any agreement that depends on consistent enforcement across future administrations asks for something the American political system has not delivered on Iran policy in decades. The current posture - sustained but episodic pressure combined with openness to a possible new deal - assumes that a verifiable and enforceable agreement is achievable with a leadership whose ideology prioritizes resistance and whose external patrons have incentives to help it evade constraints. A decisive and overt regime change campaign represents the alternative that confronts these realities directly. It does not rely on persuading Iran's current leadership to abandon core strategic assets or on maintaining perfect verification against a determined cheater. Instead, it targets the source of the problem. We must weigh the risks of action against the mounting, compounding perils of inaction. The writer is a U.S. Army Special Forces combat veteran with 25 years of service. (RealClear Defense) Over the past few days, Iran has shot down an American helicopter, attacked Kuwait's international airport, menaced Hormuz with drones, and launched missiles at Israel. This is not the behavior of an adversary that is desperate for peace. Meanwhile, Iran has been secretly sealing off its subterranean cache of highly enriched uranium. This will make securing the material, America's main objective, immeasurably more difficult, even if an agreement is signed. The regime has always had the same beliefs. Apocalyptic war against the West will cause a Messianic figure to emerge from invisibility and lead the Shia faithful to global domination in the endtimes. That remains its reality. You can't do a deal with that. (Telegraph-UK) Israel and the West Since Oct. 7, we are told that Israel has lost the world. It has squandered international goodwill. It has alienated its allies. It has isolated itself through its conduct in Gaza. Israel was attacked in the most brutal massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, responded by fighting a just war against the organization that carried out that massacre, and somehow emerged as the primary culprit in the eyes of much of the international community. There is only one problem with this theory. It assumes Israel enjoyed remarkable support before Oct. 7. When exactly was this golden age? Was it when student groups were calling for boycotts, divestment, and sanctions against the Jewish state? Was it when anti-Israel activism became a permanent feature of university life? Or was it at the UN, where Israel has long occupied a unique category of international obsession? From 2015 through 2024, the UN General Assembly adopted more than twice as many resolutions against Israel as it did against all other countries combined. At the UN Human Rights Council, democratic Israel has routinely attracted more condemnation than regimes run by dictators, warlords, and revolutionary clerics. Apparently, the world's most pressing human rights crisis is not Syria, Iran, North Korea, or Russia. We are told Gaza transformed Israel into an international outcast. Curiously, many international institutions seem to have reached that conclusion years before Gaza. The idea that Oct. 7 destroyed decades of goodwill would be more persuasive if anyone could point to the decades of goodwill. Before Israeli forces had entered Gaza in significant numbers, before casualty figures dominated headlines, before military operations had fully unfolded, many people had already decided who the villain was. A remarkable amount of outrage appeared before Israel had done much of anything in Gaza at all. Israel is subjected to demands rarely made of any other country. It is expected to defeat enemies without defeating them and eliminate threats without using force. If support disappears the moment it is tested, was it ever support at all? An ally who vanishes during a war was never much of an ally. And support that exists only during periods of calm is not support in any meaningful sense of the word. (Times of Israel) After Hizbullah bombed northern Israel, the IDF struck the group's headquarters in Beirut. Iran responded by launching missiles at the Jewish state, and the Israeli military then struck targets in Iran. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper responded, "Both sides must show restraint and de-escalate immediately." This call for de-escalation may appear balanced, but it obscures a fundamental reality: it was Iran that chose to escalate by launching missiles at Israeli population centers. Israel responded by targeting military and strategic sites. There has been remarkably little emphasis on the fact that Hizbullah initiated the conflict. Nor has sufficient attention been paid to the displaced Israeli civilians, the homes damaged or destroyed by Hizbullah attacks, and the prolonged disruption and insecurity imposed on northern Israel. For decades, Hizbullah has acted as Iran's most powerful regional proxy, exercising enormous influence over Lebanon's political and security institutions. By significantly weakening the Shia terror group, Israel has helped restore a degree of Lebanese sovereignty, enabling the government to enter into negotiations with Israel despite the opposition of Hizbullah and the Iranian regime. The persistent blurring of responsibility in official British statements is puzzling given that Iran's leadership is committed to Israel's destruction and has spent years building what it proudly describes as a regional "axis of resistance." This habit of false equivalence risks encouraging precisely the actors threatening the "peace and stability" the foreign secretary invokes. Britain's Gulf allies know who attacked their countries. They know that the principal threat to regional stability is not Israeli self-defense but Iranian expansionism. It is firmly in Britain's interests that Iran's ability to destabilize the region is diminished, that its nuclear ambitions are thwarted, and that Hizbullah's grip on Lebanon is broken or at least weakened. Britain should be clear-eyed and outspoken about who is driving this conflict and whose defeat would make both the Middle East and Britain safer. (Jewish Chronicle-UK) Palestinian Arabs Six months after President Trump announced his ceasefire initiative for Gaza, Hamas is still armed, still in control of large parts of Gaza, and still openly refusing to surrender its weapons. Last week, mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey gathered in Cairo with Hamas leaders and representatives of several Palestinian factions in yet another attempt to persuade the Iran-backed Islamist group to comply with Trump's peace plan, which calls for the demilitarization of Gaza and the decommissioning of weapons held by Hamas and other armed groups. The message Hamas is sending remains as defiant as ever. Hamas continues to set conditions before it would even consider surrendering its weapons. Among its demands are a full Israeli withdrawal, increased humanitarian aid, guarantees for the safety of its leaders and members, the dismantling of armed groups it claims are backed by Israel, and the integration of its administrative personnel into any future governing structure in Gaza. Hamas is behaving like a victorious army dictating its terms. The notion that Hamas would voluntarily surrender the means that allow it to dominate Gaza, intimidate Palestinians, and wage jihad (holy war) against Israel is detached from reality. Hamas did not spend decades building a military infrastructure, digging tunnels, stockpiling rockets, and indoctrinating generations of Palestinians only to hand over its weapons because mediators asked politely. Terrorist organizations do not voluntarily negotiate themselves out of existence. No serious observer believes that Hamas would permanently relinquish its military capabilities while continuing to exist as a political movement. Any agreement that allows Hamas to survive politically while retaining influence over Gaza is only postponing the next war. The fundamental problem with the current approach is that it treats Hamas as a legitimate political actor. Negotiating with Hamas over whether it should surrender its weapons is like negotiating with a bank robber over whether he should keep his gun. That Qatar and Turkey are once again serving as mediators just adds another layer of lunacy to the process. Both countries have long been among Hamas's most important political and financial supporters. Hamas leaders have enjoyed safe haven in Qatar and Turkey for years. Hamas and Iran are not interested in peace. They are interested in survival. In their eyes, if they can maneuver the "Great Satan," the U.S., to compromise, they win and America loses. Survival means remaining armed so that they can continue pursuing the elimination of Israel. (Gatestone Institute) Observations: What America Gets for $3.8 Billion in Military Aid to Israel - and the Way Ahead - Maj. (ret.) John Spencer (Substack)
The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at West Point's Modern War Institute. |
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