| DAILY ALERT |
Thursday, April 17, 2025 |
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites in May but was waved off by President Trump in recent weeks in favor of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear program, according to administration officials. Israel had sought to set back Iran's ability to build a bomb at a time when Iran has been weakened militarily and economically. Almost all of the plans would have required U.S. help. Earlier in April, Trump informed Israel of his decision that the U.S. would not support an attack and discussed it with Prime Minister Netanyahu during his recent visit to Washington. Trump made clear to Netanyahu that he would not provide American support for an Israeli attack while the negotiations were playing out. Israel has long planned to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, rehearsing bombing runs and calculating how much damage it could do with or without American help. But support within the Israeli government for a strike grew after Iran suffered a string of setbacks last year. In attacks on Israel in April, most of Iran's ballistic missiles were unable to penetrate American and Israeli defenses. Air defense systems in Iran were destroyed, along with facilities to make missile fuel. Hizbullah, Iran's key ally, was decimated, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria cut off a prime route of weapons smuggling from Iran. Inside the Trump administration, some officials voiced concerns about the Israeli plan, including Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence; Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; and Vice President JD Vance. There is still significant debate within Trump's team about what kind of agreement with Iran would be acceptable. If the talks failed, Trump could then support an Israeli attack, Vance said. (New York Times) See also Israel Has Seriously Considered Attacking Iran's Nuclear Program Multiple Times - Yonah Jeremy Bob Following Iran's second missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024, Jerusalem seriously considered taking out Tehran's nuclear program at the time. Israel's air force was confident that it could pull off such an operation, following its successful retaliatory attacks on Iran in April 2024 and on the Houthis in Yemen, which is even farther away. But top Israeli officials were not ready to carry out such an operation without U.S. approval. The leak of Israeli plans to the New York Times appears to be an American attempt to send a message to Khamenei about how close he came to losing his nuclear program and how close he could come if the current nuclear talks do not succeed. (Jerusalem Post) U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff wrote on X on Tuesday, "A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal. Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program. They don't need to enrich past 3.67%. This is going to be much about verification on the enrichment program and then ultimately verification on weaponization." Witkoff told Fox News on Monday that verification measures should cover "the type of missiles that they have stockpiled there, and it includes the trigger for a bomb." "Israel can't live with Iran on the threshold, but the U.S. can. That is the major difference," said Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. President Trump has indicated that he strongly prefers a diplomatic solution to military action. But he has continued to threaten harsh consequences for Tehran if it doesn't agree to a new nuclear deal swiftly. "It's really simple," Trump said on Monday. "They can't have a nuclear weapon, and they've got to go fast, because they're fairly close to having one, and they are not going to have one." Asked if that includes the possibility of a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, he replied, "Of course it does." (Wall Street Journal) Since early April, U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers operating out of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean have been using 30,000-lb., GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators - the biggest "bunker buster" bomb - against underground Houthi targets. This would be the first time the weapon has been used in combat. The use of these bombs in Yemen sends a clear message to Iran as the U.S. government negotiates a nuclear deal. The GBU-57 is said to be able to penetrate 200 feet of concrete before exploding. Its development was commissioned following the 2003 Iraq War, where existing bunker buster bombs were found to be inadequate for the most hardened structures. It is the weapon of choice for buried targets, such as the Iranian bunkers where its nuclear program is being worked on. (Aviationist-Italy) Yemeni militias are planning a ground offensive against the Houthis in an attempt to take advantage of a U.S. bombing campaign that has degraded the group's capabilities, Yemeni and U.S. officials say. Private American security contractors have provided advice to the Yemeni factions on a potential ground operation. The U.S. is open to supporting a ground operation by local forces, the U.S. officials said. The U.S. launched its air operation targeting the Houthis on March 15, saying it was meant to defend American interests, deter enemies, and restore freedom of navigation in one of the most important commercial shipping waterways. The U.S. has launched more than 350 strikes during its current campaign but hasn't released any battlefield assessment since the initial strikes. U.S. officials said the recent arrival of a second aircraft carrier in the region will likely lead to increased strikes for at least several more weeks. (Wall Street Journal) Jordan has arrested 16 members of the Muslim Brotherhood who were trained and financed in Lebanon and had plotted attacks on targets inside the kingdom involving rockets and drones, authorities said on Tuesday. Jordanian security forces found a rocket manufacturing facility with dozens of rockets alongside a drone factory, and at least one rocket ready for launch. The Brotherhood's political arm in Jordan, the Islamic Action Front, became the largest political grouping in the parliament after last September's parliamentary elections, although most seats are still held by government supporters. Jordanian security officials said the plot was linked to Iran and its allies' clandestine efforts to recruit agents to carry out acts of sabotage within the kingdom. "The plot aimed at harming national security, sowing chaos and causing material destruction inside the kingdom," the General Intelligence Department said. (Reuters) See also Hamas-Trained Cell in Lebanon Linked to Jordan Missile Plot - Lior Ben Ari Lebanon's LBCI reported on Wednesday that the suspects involved in the terror plot uncovered in Jordan had been trained by Hamas operatives in Lebanon. (Ynet News) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited northern Gaza on Tuesday and emphasized the importance of continuing the military pressure on Hamas. He said, "I would like to tell you what we are fighting for and why we are fighting: A post today issued by the tyrant of Iran, the Ayatollah Khamenei, explains why Israel must be destroyed. He did this during the negotiations with the Americans. We are fighting for our existence. We are fighting for our future." (Prime Minister's Office) Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Benny Gantz, a former defense minister and IDF chief of staff who today leads the opposition National Unity party, said Thursday on X: "The Iranian Regime are experts at stalling. The State of Israel must, and can, remove the prospect of Iranian nuclear capabilities. Coordinating closely with our great ally the United States, it is time to change the Middle East." (Jerusalem Post) Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed on Wednesday that Israel is planning to arrange distribution of humanitarian aid directly to Gazans without Hamas involvement. Israel's policy includes stopping humanitarian aid that underlies Hamas's control over the population, and creating infrastructure for distribution through civilian companies. The plan would establish supply distribution centers in southern and central Gaza under IDF control. International organizations employing foreign workers or Palestinians approved by the IDF would be responsible for distribution. Gaza residents would access these areas with minimal or no contact with the IDF to receive supplies. (Israel Hayom) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War Israeli troops have taken over a third of Gaza in the north and south as part of a new strategy to ratchet up pressure on Hamas. Israel is now threatening to hold land indefinitely as it presses Hamas to release the hostages. Israel's military said it was following an updated defense strategy that calls for maintaining a broad military presence in buffer zones that have been cleared of threats. Evacuations were ordered to reduce harm to civilians. (Wall Street Journal) After Israel blocked aid to Gaza that Hamas had been seizing and selling to raise funds, and after it targeted Hamas officials who played important roles in distributing cash, salary payments to many Gaza government employees have ceased, while many senior Hamas fighters and political staff have received only half of their pay. "There is a big crisis in Hamas in terms of getting money," said Moumen Al-Natour, a Palestinian lawyer from Shati in central Gaza. "They were mainly dependent on humanitarian aid sold in black markets for cash." The reduced payments are making it harder for Hamas to bring in new recruits. Israel's currency is legal tender in Gaza, which hasn't received new shekel bills since the fighting began 18 months ago. Many of Gaza's 56 bank branches and 91 ATMs have been destroyed or rendered out of service over the course of the war. (Wall Street Journal) Hizbullah The Lebanese army has increased its deployment in the country's south over the past few months, confiscating Hizbullah's arms and dismantling its positions under the terms of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement, according to Lebanese military officials and diplomats. An additional 1,500 troops have been deployed in the south, closest to the border with Israel, bringing the total to 6,000, with 4,000 more still being recruited, military officials said. Such an effort was unimaginable only a year ago, when Hasan Nasrallah, Hizbullah's leader, was alive. A diplomat with knowledge of the matter said a five-member committee headed by a U.S. official is overseeing the implementation of the agreement. The committee receives coordinates of arms depots and missile launchers from the Israelis or UN peacekeepers and then the Lebanese military is to take action. The diplomat said the armed forces have so far dismantled more than 500 military sites operated by Hizbullah and other groups. In recent weeks, calls have mounted for the Lebanese military to disarm Hizbullah across the country, not just south of the Litani River close to Israel. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said his country is working to ensure the state's right to monopolize the bearing of arms "north and south of the Litani." (Washington Post) Some 400 Hizbullah field commanders are slated to leave Lebanon for South American countries, including Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and Ecuador, according to a Latin American diplomatic source, the Saudi news outlet Al Hadath reported Wednesday. 200 commanders have already reached South America, with the rest expected in due course. Hizbullah already has an established terrorist network in South America. On Tuesday, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated that 2025 would mark the exclusive centralization of weapons in state hands. He asserted that Hizbullah's disarmament would be achieved "through dialogue." Senior Hizbullah figure Mahmoud Qamati responded to the government's call to disarm the organization. "We are committed to our weapons, we are committed to our resistance. Whoever reaches out to touch our weapons - their hand will be cut off." (Israel Hayom) Weekend Features Romi Gonen, 24, and Emily Damari, 28, both wounded, were held together in Gaza for 431 days. Romi: "Imagine sitting for a year and five months with an arm injury that renders you completely unable to function and in constant, severe pain." Emily lost two fingers. She said: "When we did the laundry, it was one of her hands and one of mine. When we washed the dishes, it was one of her hands and one of mine. When we let off steam by kickboxing each other, it was one of her hands and one of mine." "Even after we got out, we weren't separated. We were in rooms next to each other at the hospital, then at the hotel, then during surgery, and now in rehab together. While the rest of the world is moving on, Romi and I are still living October 7, still putting together our pieces, still healing, still hurting, still comforting each other." Romi: "Two wounded girls, two working hands, and two souls bleeding. That's how our journey began. Over time, a kind of cosmic bond formed between us. We were each other's light in the darkest, most horrific place....We were each other's refuge in the moments that shattered us, when we couldn't imagine standing back up again....Emily was the light at the end of my tunnel when I lost hope." (Ynet News) Israel has decided to return the decades-old Vulcan antiaircraft system, which has not been operational in the Israel Defense Forces for 20 years, to counter the growing threat posed by drones. Three systems have already become operational, and five more are expected to be deployed by August. The Vulcan is a 20-mm. Gatling gun, mounted on an armored personnel carrier. It has a firing rate of up to 60 rounds per second - 3,600 rounds per minute. The Vulcan was retired in 2006 as more advanced systems like the Iron Dome took precedence. Since October 2023, dozens of UAVs have breached Israeli airspace, in some instances causing casualties - such as the October 2024 attack on an infantry base in which four soldiers were killed. To bring the Vulcan back online, the IDF retrieved old APCs from warehouses and scrapyards - and even a museum - and refurbished them. (Makor Rishon-Israel Hayom) The largest shopping mall in the West Bank opened on Saturday in Ramallah with live music, dance performances, and a large public turnout. Palestinian Authority officials, including Ramallah Governor Laila Ghannam, attended the event. The mall's director is Qassam Barghouti, son of imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti. The six-floor mall has 165 stores, including Ramallah's fifth KFC branch, as well as a cinema, a rooftop pool, an escape room, an ice skating rink, and multiple playgrounds for children. (Ha'aretz) Kesem Energy has signed a $2 billion gas supply agreement with Energean over 17 years from the Karish-Tanin gas fields and a $700-800 million agreement with the Tamar field, operated by Chevron. Kesem Energy will build a natural gas power plant at the Kesem junction near Rosh Haayin in central Israel, scheduled to begin operating in 2029. (Globes) Observations: Israel's Most Conclusive Victory since 1949 - Edward N. Luttwak (Tablet)
The writer is a contractual strategic consultant for the U.S. government. |
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