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Prepared for the
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
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To contact the Presidents Conference: click here In-Depth Issue:
IDF: "Hamas Exploiting Calm" - Hanan Greenberg (Yediot Ahronot-English)
See also
Palestinians Planting Explosives in Preparation for Renewed Hostilities in Gaza (Ha'aretz)
Freed Prisoner Killed on Terror Mission - Margot Dudkevitch (Jerusalem Post)
Unedited French Video Shows al-Dura Not Hit by Israeli Fire - Eva Cahen
(CNS News)
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Assassins who killed Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, traveled from Iraq through Syria to carry out the attack, according to Rachid Mezher, the Beirut judge leading the inquiry into the bombing. He said that the organizers had been recruited from Islamist groups linked to Syria and operating against the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. Investigators believe a suicide bomber drove a car laden with explosives into the convoy last Monday. Mezher said that a video in which Ahmed Abu Adas, a Palestinian Lebanese, said the attack was the work of the "Victory and Jihad in Greater Syria" group, was a genuine claim of responsibility. Abu Adas attended Beirut mosques known to be recruiting grounds for the Ansar al-Islam group, linked to the Jordanian extremist al-Zarqawi. The Beirut attack bore similarities to suicide bombings carried out in Iraq by al-Zarqawi. "We know that Adas had Saudi Arabian nationality and used his passport to travel to Iraq and Syria," said Mezher. (Telegraph-UK) See also Syrian Drug Link to Beirut Blast - Uzi Mahnaimi The murder of Rafik al-Hariri may have been the work of Syrian intelligence officers trying to protect their share of Lebanon's $1 billion-a-year drugs trade. The theory received backing from a Kuwaiti newspaper which blamed the killing on leading figures in the Syrian military. Drugs are only part of the economic benefits derived by Syria. Syrian workers send home up to $1 billion a year and water is pumped from the al-Assi River. "If the Syrians quit Lebanon, not only will the ruling sect lose the dirty drug money but the Syrian state will collapse in six months," said one Lebanese source. (Times-UK) See also Deep Roots Hold Syrian Influence in Lebanon - Megan K. Stack "Syria considers its presence here not as something temporary, not as a foreign occupation, but as something natural. They think that Lebanon is a part of Syria," said former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel. Even if the soldiers left, Syrian influence would linger in the form of intelligence agents and Lebanese who make a living on the Syrian payroll. (Los Angeles Times) Members of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq are open to negotiating an end to their struggle with the U.S. "We are ready to work with you," said a middle-aged former member of Saddam Hussein's regime who is a senior representative of the self-described nationalist insurgency. Parts of the insurgency in Iraq are prepared to talk and move toward putting away their arms - and the U.S. is willing to listen. Hard-line Islamist fighters like al-Zarqawi's al-Qaeda group will not compromise in their campaign to create an Islamic state, but senior Iraqi insurgent commanders said several "nationalist" rebel groups - composed predominantly of ex-military officers - have moved toward a strategy of "fight and negotiate." (TIME) Egypt Saturday postponed a conference of G-8 and Arab ministers on promoting democracy set for next month, apparently in reaction to Washington's pointed criticism of the arrest of Ayman Nour, the leader of an opposition party. "Egypt is trying to send a message to the Bush administration that it can't be pressured," said Fawaz Gerges, a Mideast expert at Sarah Lawrence College. (AP/Washington Post) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon signed evacuation directives Sunday giving Gaza and northern West Bank settlers five months to leave their homes - by July 20, 2005. The government approved the disengagement plan Sunday by a 17-5 margin. Voting against were ministers Benjamin Netanyahu, Tzachi Hanegbi, Yisrael Katz, Natan Sharansky, and Danny Naveh. The ministers also voted 20-1 in favor of a modified West Bank security fence route that includes much of the settlement bloc of Gush Etzion, and the town of Maaleh Adumim next to Jerusalem. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz estimated the removal of settlements would take about seven weeks. (Yediot Ahronot-English) Israel released 500 prisoners Monday as a goodwill gesture toward PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. Israel plans to release an additional 400 prisoners within the next three months. Just 200 of the 500 prisoners released Monday have served two-thirds of their sentences. (Ha'aretz) The IDF will not withdraw from the Philadelphia Corridor between Gaza and Egypt until all weapons smuggling stops completely, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem Sunday. Mofaz expressed confidence that Israeli intelligence in the Gaza Strip will be able to prevent terrorist attacks after Israel withdraws. He said that experience has taught Israel not to rely on the Palestinians to maintain Israel's security. (Jerusalem Post) Egypt has named Mohammed Assem as its new ambassador to Israel, Israel's Foreign Ministry said Sunday. Assem is Egypt's ambassador to Sudan. (AP/Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
Both the administration and Congress seem to have decided to pressure Syria by ratcheting up the economic sanctions already in place against it. This is pointless, because economic sanctions, particularly unilateral American ones, have an unblemished record of failure. When sanctions have worked, it is because they have been multilateral sanctions, usually authorized through the UN. The U.S. has begun to try to gather an international coalition against Syria. It is unlikely to produce UN sanctions, but it might put real pressure on the Syrian regime politically. Syria does not think of itself as a pariah state like North Korea - and if it does not stop funding terrorists, occupying Lebanon and crushing all dissent, it should be treated as such. Washington has many gripes with Syria - its support for the insurgency in Iraq being the biggest - but it should focus single-mindedly on one issue that can gain international support: getting Syria out of Lebanon. (Newsweek) See also Syria After Hariri - Edward S. Walker and Maggie Mitchell Salem Washington and Paris will not let up their commitment to free Lebanon. In Washington, Syria is frequently referred to as a "low-hanging fruit" - and not without reason. Bush pledged in his inaugural address to end tyranny, and his advisers are actively looking for the most expedient ways of fulfilling his vision. What the perpetrators of Monday's attack may have miscalculated is Bush's personal ire at Hariri's assassination. But Damascus cannot expect to continue peddling intelligence in Iraq, peace talks with Israel, and intercession with Iran for its oppressive presence in Lebanon. That is old math. (Boston Globe) Hamas wants to maintain a confrontational cease-fire, studded with occasional incidents, which will provide the constant threat of exploding the entire deal. It sees the cease-fire as a way of stopping, or at least reducing, the operations of the Israeli army and the Shin Bet against its members. In Israel there are the usual starry-eyed pundits predicting that Hamas is about to transform itself from a terrorist underground to a political party. But this is a serious mistake. Hamas seeks a political cover for its military movement, not its elimination. (Jerusalem Report) Observations:
The Calm Before the Storm - Danny Rubinstein (Ha'aretz)
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