DAILY ALERT

In-Depth Issues:

New Worry Rises After Iran Claims Nuclear Steps - William J. Broad and David E. Sanger (New York Times)
    Western analysts long suspected that Iran had a second, secret program separate from the activity at its main nuclear facility at Natanz.
    Then on Thursday, Ahmadinejad said that Tehran was "presently conducting research" on the advanced P-2 centrifuge, boasting that it would quadruple Iran's enrichment powers.
    If Iran moved beyond research and actually began running the machines, it could force American intelligence agencies to revise their estimates of how long it would take for Iran to build an atom bomb.

    See also Iran Expanding, Reinforcing Atomic Sites - Mark Heinrich (Reuters)
    New satellite imagery indicates Iran has expanded its uranium conversion site at Isfahan and reinforced its Natanz underground uranium enrichment plant against possible military strikes, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a U.S. think tank, said.
    "Iran is taking extraordinary precautions to try to protect its nuclear assets," said ISIS head David Albright, an ex-UN arms inspector and nuclear expert.

    See also Iran Raises Efforts to Obtain U.S. Arms Illegally - John Pomfret (Washington Post)
    The Iranian government has intensified efforts to illegally obtain weapons technology from the U.S., seeking spare parts to maintain its aging American-made air force planes, its missile forces, and its nuclear weapons program, according to federal law enforcement authorities.

Ahmadinejad's Demons - Matthias Kuntzel (New Republic)
    During the Iran-Iraq War, Khomeini sent Iranian children, some as young as twelve years old, to the front lines where they marched in formation across minefields toward the enemy, clearing a path with their bodies.
    They were part of the Basiji, a mass movement started to supplement the army.
    Ahmadinejad reportedly served as a Basij instructor during the Iran-Iraq War. He regularly appears in public wearing a black-and-white Basij scarf and, in his speeches, he routinely praises "Basij culture" and "Basij power."
    The Basiji's cult of self-destruction would be chilling in any country. In the context of the Iranian nuclear program, however, its obsession with martyrdom amounts to a lit fuse.
    Nowadays, Basij students are encouraged to enroll in technical and scientific disciplines.

Iran Suicide Bombers "Ready to Hit Britain" - Marie Colvin, Michael Smith, and Sarah Baxter (Times-UK)
    Iran has formed battalions of suicide bombers to strike at British and American targets if the nation's nuclear sites are attacked.
    According to Iranian officials, 40,000 trained suicide bombers are ready for action.
    Last month, members of the Special Unit of Martyr Seekers in the Revolutionary Guards marched in a military parade, dressed in uniforms with explosive packs around their waists and detonators held high.
    At a recruiting station in Tehran recently, volunteers ticked a box stating whether they would prefer to attack American targets in Iraq or Israeli targets.

Passover Tourism to Israel Up 20% (Ha'aretz)
    About 90,000 foreign tourists are expected to visit Israel during Passover week, a 20% increase over last Passover, according to Tourism Ministry figures.

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Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):

Observations:

Zero Tolerance - Amos Harel (Ha'aretz)

• Only a decisive move by the new Hamas government against the cells launching the Kassam rockets will cause Israel to end its military campaign against them. "When it comes to terror from Gaza, we have to set a zero-tolerance threshold," said Maj.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Operations Branch in the IDF General Staff, last week. "It seems insane to me to let them thrive and flourish when they are firing rockets at us."
• The PA now has full physical control in the Gaza Strip, and as far as Israel is concerned, the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza deprived the Palestinians of any excuse for firing at the Negev. Israel is demanding the Hamas government accept full responsibility and maintain total quiet. And as Israel is permitted to react from its own territory to Hizballah attacks from Lebanon - and with all due force - so, too, can it react to rocket attacks from Gaza.
• "We shouldn't find ourselves in the situation that existed in [the Jerusalem neighborhood of] Gilo, when it took us a year and a half to understand that it was not possible to accept daily firing on civilians," Eisenkot said.
• "I estimate that in this round, they [Hamas] will step hard on the brakes. The heads of Hamas are capable of doing so...and they have additional obligations to uphold: providing basic security to citizens, ending the anarchy in the streets, paying salaries, when there is not yet anywhere to take the money from. They need some time and quiet right now, in order to bring about stability in the domestic arena within the Palestinian Authority and to gain control of the positions of power."
• Eisenkot does not believe there will be any ideological turnaround in Hamas, but does feel the organization will carry out the "requisite ideological adjustments" to survive and rescue the PA from its economic crisis. "They don't see things in our timeframe - in the here and now - but in the longer term, of decades and centuries."

      See also Maj.-Gen. Yitzhak Harel: "We Are at War" - Yaakov Katz
  "We are at war," declares Maj.-Gen. Yitzhak Harel, head of the IDF's Planning Directorate, who is retiring in a few months after 31 years of military service. The PA, he says, has been taken over by a group of Hamas terrorists and murderers, and the IDF's current operation against Kassam rocket fire in the Gaza Strip is no different from a war. "Eventually, there will be no Kassam fire. The question is how many steps we need to climb before we get there....The main question is: When will the Palestinians decide that it is no longer worth it for them to continue firing the rockets?" (Jerusalem Post)