DAILY ALERT

In-Depth Issues:

Is Bin Laden Moving on from Iraq? - Paul Reynolds (BBC News)
    The two latest messages believed to be from Osama Bin Laden emphasize the centrality of a struggle against Israel and raise the question as to why he did not concentrate on Iraq.
    Perhaps the shift from Iraq to the "Palestinian question" is meant to attract support, leading to a theory among some Western intelligence analysts that al-Qaeda accepts that it is in trouble in Iraq.
    "Al-Qaeda could now be preparing its followers for a strategic failure in Iraq. It therefore needs a rallying cry and Palestine is a no-brainer," said Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
    "There is some evidence that support for Osama Bin Laden has been dropping in the Arab world because of revulsion about al-Qaeda behavior and especially the killing of Muslims."
    "On the other hand, there is still an appetite and ambition to engage in terrorism spectaculars in Western Europe and the U.S., though the capacity might not match the ambition. But they only have to be lucky once."

The Development of Hamas Rocket Capabilities (Strategy Page)
    Israeli intelligence officials believe Hamas currently has, in Gaza, several hundred factory-made BM-21 rockets, each with a range of 20 km. They also have 6-km.-range B-12 rockets. The locally-made Kassam II has about the same range, but the B-12 is more reliable.
    In 2002, Hamas began firing Kassam I rockets at Jewish settlements in Gaza and into southern Israel. By 2003, there was the Kassam II, with a range of 8 km. The Kassam III has a range of 10 km.
    By June 2004, about 200 Kassams had been fired into southern Israel. By the end of 2005, over 400 Kassams had been fired at Israeli targets. In the next six months, another 600 rockets were fired. About a thousand Kassams were fired into Israel during 2006. This doubled, to two thousand in 2007, and during the first four months of 2008, another 2,000 were fired.
    For every 30-40 Kassams fired, an Israeli is killed or wounded.
    Hamas has hopes that someday soon they will attack in conjunction with Hizbullah firing rockets into northern Israel, and Iran firing rockets into Tel Aviv.

Israeli Hospital Saves West Bank Woman Bitten by Snake - Judy Siegel-Itzkovich (Jerusalem Post)
    Nadia Ayad, 30, from Jenin, was evacuated to Emek Medical Center in Afula on Monday after having been bitten by a poisonous viper snake, where she was treated with a special antidote suited to the toxin.
    She and her family expressed their gratitude to the doctors and nurses for saving her life.

Arab Israeli Media and Internet Use Survey (Mena Report/Al-Bawaba-Jordan)
    A new survey of Arab Israelis reveals that 85% with TV have satellite TV systems. Of these, 87% tune into Nile Sat, 73% tune into Arabsat.
    94% of Arab Israelis who watch TV reported a preference for Arabic-language TV. 54% also watch TV in Hebrew.

News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):

Observations:

Anti-Jewish Bias Seen in Michigan Spy Case - Eli Lake (New York Sun)

• For the past 11 years, Army tank engineer David Tenenbaum has been trying to undo the damage the government did to him in four days in 1997, when he was accused of being a spy for Israel. The U.S. attorney ultimately declined to prosecute the case, stating in a letter that the government failed to produce enough evidence to warrant prosecution despite a thorough investigation.
• The Pentagon inspector general's investigation into the handling of the Tenenbaum case concluded: "Mr. Tenenbaum experienced religious discrimination when his Judaism was weighed as a significant factor in the decision to submit him for an increase in his security clearance." The investigation quoted several Pentagon officials involved in the case against Tenenbaum acknowledging that his religion and his contacts in Israel were grounds at least in part for launching the investigation against him.
• "There are other cases that have been brought to our attention over the years. Often people are afraid to go public for fear of further retribution, but there clearly has to be a systemic approach to this and let justice be done for those who have been discriminated against," said the executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, Malcolm Hoenlein.
• "This case is a blatant example of discrimination that is tolerated within the system against Jews and perhaps others. For 11 years this innocent man has suffered and paid a heavy price, personally, financially, socially. There is no compensation that is adequate for that suffering."
• A former chairman of the Defense Policy Advisory Board and a senior Pentagon official in the Reagan administration, Richard Perle, said, "There is no balanced commitment to a sense of judgment from the people who are responsible for conducting these investigations....There is a wholly unjustified suspicion of Jews in sensitive positions, and especially Orthodox Jews."
• Tenenbaum noted: "My father was a Holocaust survivor. He was the only one who survived. He passed away a year before this happened. Can you imagine him seeing his only son being singled out for the same reason he was, being a Jew?"