DAILY ALERT

In-Depth Issues:

Israeli Defense Sources: Iran Missile Test Not Advanced Shahab-3 as Tehran Claims - Yuval Azoulay and Yossi Melman (Ha'aretz)
    The long-range missile launched as part of a large-scale military exercise in Iran on Wednesday is not a more capable version of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile as Iran claimed, according to Israeli experts.
    "From what I saw, this is an old version of the Shahab-3 and, contrary to their claims, it is not capable of reaching 2,000 kilometers, only 1,300 kilometers," said Uzi Rubin, who was program director for Israel's Arrow anti-missile system.
    "The Iranians have a tendency to exaggerate to a certain extent the capabilities of their missiles," he said.
    Intelligence analysts estimate that Iran has several hundred Shahab-3s in its arsenal, as well as a much larger stockpile of several thousand shorter range missiles (up to 400 km.) capable of targeting U.S. forces in Iraq or their allies in the Persian Gulf.
    See also The Global Range of Iran's Ballistic Missile Program - Uzi Rubin (ICA/JCPA)

U.S. Navy Conducts Anti-Missile Training (Strategy Page)
    Last week, the U.S. Navy conducted anti-missile training as two Aegis warships (one off the coast of Israel, and the other in the Persian Gulf) practiced defeating a combined missile attack from Syria, Lebanon, and Iran against Israel.
    So far, the Aegis system has knocked down nearly 90% of the missiles fired towards it.
    The Aegis system has a range of over 500 km. and a maximum altitude of over 160 km.
    By the end of the year, the U.S. Navy will have 18 ships equipped with the Aegis anti-missile system.

U.S. Troops in Iraq Face a Powerful New Weapon: Rocket-Propelled Bombs - Ernesto Londono (Washington Post)
    Shiite militiamen have begun using powerful rocket-propelled bombs to attack U.S. military outposts in recent months.
    U.S. military officials call the devices Improvised Rocket Assisted Munitions, or IRAMs. They are propane tanks packed with hundreds of pounds of explosives and powered by 107mm rockets, often fired by remote control from the backs of trucks, sometimes in close succession.
    U.S. military officials say IRAM attacks have the potential to kill scores of soldiers at once. A June report on the Web site Long War Journal called the explosives-filled propane tanks "flying IEDs."

Islamic Pressure Growing on Egypt's Coptic Christians - Ellen Knickmeyer (Washington Post)
    Under pressure from fundamentalist forms of Islam and bursts of sectarian violence, the most populous Christian community in the Middle East is seeking safety by turning inward, cutting day-to-day social ties that have bound Muslim to Christian in Egypt for centuries.
    Attacks this summer on Coptic monks and shopkeepers, and scattered clashes between Muslims and Christians, have compelled many of Egypt's estimated 6 to 8 million Copts to isolate themselves in a nation with more than 70 million Muslims.

News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):

Observations:

Iran's Missile Threat - Editorial (Wall Street Journal)

• Talk about timing. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was in Prague signing an agreement that's a first step toward protecting Europe from ballistic missile attack. As if on cue, Tehran tested nine missiles, including several capable of reaching southern Europe, as well as Israel and U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East. Who says Iran isn't a threat?
• No one in the neighborhood - least of all the Russians - actually believes Iran's missile program is anything but dangerous. Russians talk privately about the Iranian threat, and it's not hard to imagine a scenario whereby Tehran shares a missile - and perhaps a nuclear warhead - with its brother Muslims in Chechnya.
• Iran's tests are a useful reminder of just how real the Iranian threat is - and how rapidly it is growing. One of the missiles tested was the latest update of the Shahab-3.
• Replace the payload with a lighter one - say, a nuclear warhead - and the range gains 1,000 miles. Add a booster and the range can be extended even farther. U.S. intelligence estimates that Iran will have a ballistic missile capable of reaching New York or Washington by 2015.
• Iran may already have the capability to target the U.S. with a short-range missile by launching it from a freighter off the East Coast. A few years ago it was observed practicing the launch of Scuds from a barge in the Caspian Sea.