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Prepared for the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs | ||||
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009 | ||
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In-Depth Issues:
Is Iran Designing Warheads? - William J. Broad, Mark Mazzetti and David E. Sanger (New York Times)
Iran Test Fires Two Missiles Capable of Reaching Israel, U.S. Bases - Jeffrey Fleishman (Los Angeles Times)
Muslims Attack French Tourists on Jerusalem's Temple Mount - Isabel Kershner (New York Times)
U.S., Arabs Support Yemeni Government in Fight Against Rebels (AFP)
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
The leaders of the U.S., France, and Britain issued a statement Friday saying: "Iran's decision to build yet another nuclear facility without notifying the IAEA represents a direct challenge to the basic compact at the center of the non-proliferation regime....This site deepens a growing concern that Iran is refusing to live up to those international responsibilities, including specifically revealing all nuclear-related activities. As the international community knows, this is not the first time that Iran has concealed information about its nuclear program. Iran has a right to peaceful nuclear power that meets the energy needs of its people. But the size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program." (White House) See also U.S. Background Briefing on Iranian Nuclear Facility "We have known for some time now that Iran was building a second underground enrichment facility...located near the city of Qom, a very heavily protected, very heavily disguised facility...designed to hold about 3,000 centrifuge machines....Our information is that the Iranians began this facility with the intent that it be secret, and therefore giving them an option of producing weapons-grade uranium without the international community knowing about it." (White House) See also British Intelligence Played "Big Part" in Iranian Nuclear Discovery - Francis Elliott (Times-UK) The revelation of a hidden nuclear facility and the threat of more sanctions if Tehran does not cooperate with the new U.S.-sponsored diplomatic initiative appear to have deepened the political fissures rather than led Iranians to close ranks. The critical unknown is whether the escalating pressures will lead the theocracy to compromise or make it even more obstinate once it reaches the negotiating table. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told CBS on Sunday, "If we don't get the answers that we are expecting and the changes in behavior that we are looking for, then we will work with our partners to move for sanctions." "The burden has now shifted....They have to come to this meeting on Oct. 1 and present convincing evidence as to the purpose of their nuclear program. We don't believe that they can present convincing evidence that it's only for peaceful purposes. But we are going to put them to the test." (TIME) See also Gates: "The Iranians Have the Intention of Having Nuclear Weapons" - Interview with Defense Secretary Robert Gates (ABC News) The Obama administration is scrambling to assemble a package of harsher economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program that could include a cutoff of investments to the country's oil-and-gas industry and restrictions on many more Iranian banks than those currently blacklisted, senior administration officials said Sunday. The administration also is seeking to build a broader coalition of partners for sanctions so that it may still be able to act against Iran even if China and Russia were to veto harsher measures in the UN Security Council. In the upcoming Oct. 1 meeting between the U.S. and Iran, the Americans are expected to press for quick access and blueprints to a newly disclosed Iranian nuclear site. American efforts to marshal worldwide pressure against Iran have gained traction since the revelation last Friday that Iran was operating a clandestine nuclear site. However, administration officials said the U.S. was not likely to win support from its European allies for an embargo on shipments of gasoline or other refined fuel to Iran. (New York Times) See also U.S. Aims to Isolate Iran If Talks Fail - Glenn Kessler The Obama administration is laying plans to cut Iran's economic links to the rest of the world if talks over the country's nuclear ambitions founder. The administration would extend a prohibition against providing the "transfer of financial resources or services" to aid Iran's nuclear and missile programs to include insurance companies, export credits and the like. (Washington Post) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Israel and the U.S. will continue their talks in Washington on Wednesday on the framework for relaunching Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. There are currently disagreements between Israel and the Palestinians over a number of issues. First, the Palestinians want to restart the talks where the government of Ehud Olmert left off, while Netanyahu argues that he is not bound by Olmert's proposals. Second, the Palestinians want the negotiations to focus on the principle of a solution based on the 1967 borders, and Netanyahu strongly disagrees. Third, the Palestinians want a two-year timeframe for the achievement of a permanent agreement, while Israel objects. (Ha'aretz) Tensions are mounting between Israel and the PA following Ramallah's call on the International Court at The Hague to examine claims of "war crimes" allegedly committed by the IDF during the Gaza operation. Israeli security sources said the move was authorized by Prime Minister Fayyad and PA Chairman Abbas. At the time of the operation last winter, senior PA officials had encouraged Israel to step up the pressure on Hamas, and even to attempt to bring its rule in the territory to the point of collapse. "The PA has reached the point where it has to decide whether it is working with us or against us," a senior Israeli defense official said. Israeli sources note the growing presence of Palestinian security personnel in civilian clothing in eastern Jerusalem, contrary to the obligations of the PA. The PA security personnel have stepped up their presence in Jerusalem's medical and educational facilities, and have been involved in the abduction of Palestinians suspected of selling property to Jews. (Ha'aretz) IDF jets attacked an Islamic Jihad unit preparing a rocket for launch toward Israel Friday night, killing three, an IDF spokesperson said Saturday. An IDF aircraft fired a single rocket at the group, killing Mahmoud Bana, Kamal Dahdouh and Muhammed Marshoud. Security sources believe this unit was responsible for firing a rocket at Sderot on Rosh Hashanah. Kamal Dahdouh was the son of Khaled Dahdouh, a former head of the Islamic Jihad military wing targeted by Israel in 2006. Security sources said that there has been a recent increase in attempts by Palestinian organizations, especially Islamic Jihad and al-Qaeda affiliated groups, to carry out attacks against IDF patrols around Gaza and to launch shells and rockets at Israeli-populated areas nearby. (Ha'aretz) See also IDF Releases Video of Strike on Terrorists - Hanan Greenberg The IDF released a video on Saturday showing the terrorists carrying the rocket, setting it up, and then the airstrike. (Ynet News) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
Friday's revelations about the second uranium enrichment plant cast a particularly dark shadow over Iranian intentions, and they come after more than 20 years of deception and stonewalling by Tehran. It is critical that we set clear timelines and benchmarks by which to judge Iranian intentions as well as unambiguous consequences if Iran fails to meet the criteria. The window for Iran to demonstrate seriousness of purpose should start with the Oct. 1 meeting and, as Obama has indicated, should close by the end of the year. The writer is chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. (Washington Post) Ahmadinejad and his cronies cannot be remotely trusted. They are cheats and deceivers. After the events of the last few days, the world can make this judgment with confidence. (Financial Times-UK) The supposedly secret installation had been known to Western intelligence agencies - Britain, France, the U.S. and undoubtedly Israel - for several years. Its existence had been deduced by intelligence analysts from Iranian purchases abroad, and it was pinpointed sometime afterward. What had changed was that news of it had gone public. This happened not because Obama announced it but because the Iranians beat him to it after discovering that their cover was blown. No one should believe Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Iran seems intent on developing a nuclear weapons program and the missiles capable of delivering them. This - not the public revelations of a known installation - is the real crisis. Only the U.S. has the capability to obliterate Tehran's underground facilities. Washington may have to act. (Washington Post) If negotiations get dragged out to December and then the West begins experimenting with sanctions, precious time will have been lost. And if further sanctions depend on obtaining a consensus in the UN Security Council, Iran will work furiously to complete its race to the nuclear finishing line. When I researched my new book, The Rise of Nuclear Iran: How Tehran Defies the West, I found that numerous Iranian diplomats admitted in Farsi that they used negotiations to play for time and move their nuclear program forward. For this reason, severe sanctions must begin immediately and be tested quickly to see if they have any impact. Under these circumstances, immediate and severe sanctions are necessary to indicate that the West is serious and has the political will which Iran thinks it lacks. The time for a firm line is now - not in December. (National Review) Observations: Restarting the Middle East Peace Process - Robert Satloff (New Republic)
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