• Iran Readies Offer to Limit Its Nuclear Program - Jay Solomon
  Iran is preparing a package of proposals to halt production of near-weapons-grade nuclear fuel, a key demand of the U.S., according to officials briefed on diplomacy ahead of talks in Geneva next week. Tehran is expected to offer to stop enriching uranium to levels of 20% purity. Iran is also considering offering the closure of an underground uranium-enrichment facility near Qom. In return, Tehran will request that the U.S. and EU begin scaling back sanctions.
      "The Iranians are preparing to go to Geneva with a serious package," said a former Western diplomat who has discussed the incentives with senior Iranian diplomats in recent weeks. "These include limits on the numbers of centrifuges operating, enrichment amounts and the need for verification." But by falling short of a complete shutdown of enrichment, the anticipated Iranian offer could divide the U.S. from its closest Middle East allies, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia. (Wall Street Journal)
      See also Steinitz: Iran's Proposals Are a "Joke"
  The reported proposals that Iran intends to present at upcoming nuclear talks are a "joke," Israeli Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz said on Wednesday. "Closing the Qom facility means Iran will be able to produce five instead of six nuclear bombs in the first year, and giving up enrichment at 20% is less meaningful now that Iran has 20,000 centrifuges."  (Jerusalem Post)
• Israelis, Palestinians Intensify Talks Despite Skepticism - Crispian Balmer and Ali Sawafta
  Israeli and Palestinian negotiators held a new round of talks on Monday, picking up the tempo of their meetings at the request of the U.S. in the face of widespread skepticism that they will ever reach a deal. The two sides resumed direct peace negotiations in late July and have conducted a series of discussions far from the gaze of the media over recent weeks, without any outward hint of the slightest breakthrough.
      However, a senior Palestinian official told Reuters that the talks were intensifying, with the negotiating teams agreeing to meet for up to eight hours a day and to see one another more regularly. "As the Americans requested, we are upping the tempo of the discussions," the official said. "So far we have achieved nothing."  (Reuters)
      See also U.S. Middle East Peace Envoy Expands Staff - Laura Rozen
  Middle East peace envoy Martin Indyk is expanding his team as the U.S. prepares to intensify its role facilitating Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. (Al-Monitor)
• Turkish President Says Israel's Apology Was "Too Late"
  Turkish President Abdullah Gul told the Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot that Israel apologized to Turkey "too late" after Israeli navy commandoes stormed a Turkish ship on its way to Gaza in May 2010, and nine Turkish activists were killed. "Israel responded to part of our expectations when it apologized. But this step was taken at a late stage; Israel apologized too late. Some of our expectations have not yet been met," Gul said.
      A Turkish diplomatic advisor was reported as saying, "As long as Erdogan is the prime minister of Turkey, there will not be a change for the positive in relations with Israel."  (Zaman-Turkey)

• Turkish PM Erdogan Hosts Hamas Leader Mashaal - Herb Keinon
  Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal traveled Tuesday to Turkey for his third visit since September 2012 to meet with Prime Minister Erdogan. A September Pew Research Center poll of Muslim publics found that 73% of Turks held an unfavorable view of Hamas, as opposed to only 5% that viewed the group favorably. (Jerusalem Post)
• Israel Protests to UN over Iran Disarmament Role - Barak Ravid
  Israel on Tuesday protested the appointment of Iran as special rapporteur of the UN General Assembly's Committee on Disarmament and International Security.
      Israel's ambassador to the UN, Ron Prosor, wrote to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon: "It is inconceivable that a state under Security Council sanctions for suspected WMD proliferation activities would be allowed to hold this position. Permitting Iran to serve on the UN's leading disarmament committee is like appointing a drug lord CEO of a pharmaceutical company. How is it possible to entrust the reporting on disarmament to a country that itself is likely to be the subject of the report?"
      "Rather than provide a global stage for Iran's defiance and deception, the UN should shine a spotlight on the regime's ongoing pursuit of nuclear weapons and its support for terrorism across the globe."  (Ha'aretz)

• Hamas and Hizbullah Face Reform or Collapse - Orit Perlov
  Discourse on Palestinian and Lebanese social networks over the past six months indicates a surprising trend. Violent resistance against Israel by Hizbullah and Hamas has lost its legitimacy in both Lebanese and Palestinian society. Both movements were founded in the 1980s as Islamic resistance movements based on the principle of violent struggle against the "Zionist occupation."
      Since the onset of the Arab Spring, these two movements have lost much of their political power, the support of Arab public opinion, and most important, their domestic support. There has been a shift in focus by Arab civil societies from outside to inside - from foreign policy to domestic affairs. Nationalism and Islamism have been replaced by a demand for democratization, rights, and freedom.
      Trend analysis of the social networks reveals that for the first time, the "enemy from within" (Hizbullah and Hamas) is regarded as more dangerous than the "enemy from without" (Israel). Civil society in Lebanon, including parts of the Shiite population, now reflects overwhelming opposition to Hizbullah's policy in Syria and Lebanon. In Gaza, Internet discourse reveals that for the first time, a majority of the population want to overthrow the Hamas regime. The writer, a research fellow at INSS, is the former co-editor of the Israel Foreign Ministry website in Arabic. (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
• Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible, But Not Normal Ties with U.S. - Abolhassan Bani-Sadr
  Since the hostage crisis 34 years ago, the Iranian regime has made the U.S. a linchpin of its domestic and international politics. For a still-powerful faction within the leadership, normalization would spell the end of the regime. They will thus try to oppose it in any way they can.
      One of the fears expressed in Rouhani's speech was the open admission that sanctions have been effective in deeply damaging the economy. Another was the admission that the factor of "time" is working against Iran.
      The Iranian regime is not a "regional power" but is actually quite weak. In order to maintain its current geo-political position, Iran has had to take a large amount of money from its impoverished economy and spend it on Syria and Hizbullah. Moreover, the main cause of Iran's current disastrous economic situation is not the result of sanctions, but of sheer ineptitude in management as well as massive financial corruption by the Revolutionary Guards and other actors within the military-financial mafia.
      The current attempt to shift Iran's nuclear policy is the latest desperate move by a regime seeking to ensure that any path toward normalization will be accompanied by a U.S. guarantee not to follow a policy of regime change. The nature and history of post-revolutionary Iran tells me that the chances of normalizing relations between Iran and the U.S. are not very high. At the same time, the chances of reaching the deal over the nuclear issue are well within reach. The writer, who served as president of Iran (1980-1981), lives in exile outside Paris. (Christian Science Monitor)
• The Rouhani Phenomenon - Aaron David Miller and Mitchel Hochberg
  The emergence of Rouhani is the perfect play against the U.S., because his election as president really does reflect reformist tendencies within the Iranian public and polity. Sanctions are ruining the economy and hold the potential to create serious popular discontent. Why not send abroad a smiling, attractive, and forthcoming president who can tone down the anti-Israeli rhetoric, accept the Holocaust, and deny Iran has a nuclear weapons program, even while Tehran continues to pursue said program?
      The Iranian leadership can lie, dissemble, and pursue this two-track strategy without blinking an eye and without fear of any domestic backlash, all in an effort to see what kind of sanctions relief it can achieve and what it has to pay for it. If the price isn't right, it can recalibrate and effortlessly return to the hard-line rhetoric of Rouhani's predecessor. (Foreign Policy)

Israeli-Egyptian Peace Holding after Forty Years - Ehud Yaari (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

• Over recent decades, Egypt has stuck to its traditional anti-Zionist stance while maintaining the March 1979 peace treaty.
• Efforts to widen various forms of nonmilitary cooperation have invariably met with failure. Israeli assistance with modernizing Egyptian agriculture, sponsored by visionary politician Yousef Wali, was gradually abandoned in the face of strong anti-Israel sentiment. Terrorism-related travel warnings have slowed Israeli tourism to Egypt to a trickle of mainly Arab Israelis vacationing at Red Sea resorts.
• The peace treaty's most salient benefit is the military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries, which reached unprecedented levels this year. Today, Israeli and Egyptian officers hold almost daily meetings and have established an efficient system of communications.
• This cooperation stems from a mutual interest in curbing the terrorist factions that have emerged in Sinai. Now that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have been ousted, both Israel and Egypt view the Hamas administration in Gaza as an adversary to be contained.
• The unprecedented deployment of Egyptian troops in central and eastern Sinai through the Agreed Activities Mechanism has shown that the two countries do not need to resort to the highly risky exercise of revising the peace treaty.
  
  The writer, an international fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Middle East commentator for Israel's Channel Two television.