Prepared for the
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations

by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
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  DAILY ALERT Wednesday,
December 10, 2014


In-Depth Issues:

Poll Shows Strong Palestinian Support for Attacks on Israelis (AP-Washington Post)
    80% of Palestinians support individual attacks to stab Israelis or ram cars into crowded train stations, according to a poll released Tuesday by Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.
    The poll also found that more than half of Palestinians support a new uprising against Israel, and that Hamas would win presidential elections if they were held today.
    See also Poll: Palestinians Are Convinced that Israel Intends to Destroy Al-Aqsa Mosque - Khalil Shikaki (Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research)
    A poll conducted in the West Bank and Gaza on 3-6 December 2014 found that 86% of Palestinians believes that the Noble Sanctuary (the Temple Mount) in Jerusalem is in grave danger.
    56% believe that Israel intends to destroy al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock and replace them with a Jewish temple; 21% believe it intends to divide the plateau so that Jews would have a synagogue alongside the Muslim holy places; and 9% believe that Israel intends to change the status quo by allowing Jews to pray there. Only 6% believe that Israel is interested in maintaining the status quo without change.
    Half of the Palestinian public believes that Israel will indeed succeed in implementing its plans for the Noble Sanctuary.
    56% support return to an armed intifada, compared to 50% three months ago and 41% six months ago. 70% believe that the chances for establishing a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or non-existent.
    Perception of corruption in PA institutions stands at 81%. 43% of Gazans say they seek emigration to other countries, compared with 23% in the West Bank.
    See also "Al-Aqsa Is in Danger": The Lie that Won't Die - Nadav Shragai (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)




Half of Gaza War Dead Were Terrorists (Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center)
    150 additional names of Palestinians killed in the Gaza war have been examined, meaning 1,165 names have been examined to date, over half the total number.
    Of the 1,007 dead who could be identified, terrorist operatives constitute 52%, while non-involved civilians constitute 48%.




Preacher at Al-Aqsa Mosque: "The Armies of the Islamic State Will Liberate This Land from the Jews" (MEMRI TV)
    In a Friday sermon at Al-Aqsa Mosque posted on the Internet on Nov. 28, 2014, Sheik Omar Abu Sara said:
    "By Allah, the Jews are the most evil of Allah's creations. They are the most evil creatures to have walked this Earth."
    "I say to the Jews loud and clear: The time for your slaughter has come. The time to fight you has come. The time to kill you has come. Allah willing, we are ready for the task - we and the loyal and faithful Muslims, along with the armies of the state of the Islamic Caliphate, which will come to liberate this land from your filth."
    "When the day of your slaughter arrives, we shall slaughter you without mercy. Oh Allah, make that day come faster."
    View the Video (MEMRI TV)



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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • Iran Won't Send Its Nuclear Fuel Abroad
    Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said on Tuesday that the country does not plan to send its nuclear fuel abroad. Asked whether Iran would transfer its uranium stockpile to Russia to provide fuel for its power plants in the future, he said in Tehran, "We will not give fuel to anyone and we are not supposed to send it abroad....We want that the whole nuclear fuel process be carried out on Iranian soil."
        Salehi added, "At present, we have 1,000 machines of the second generation of centrifuges which have been installed, a chain of which, including 164 machines, is now under test." He also said Iran is in possession of the fourth and sixth generation of centrifuges. (ISNA-Iran)
  • Petraeus: Don't Cut Iran Sanctions
    Former CIA director Gen. David Petraeus said that any nuclear deal with Iran should not include a significant decrease in sanctions on the country. "No deal is better than a bad deal," Petraeus told the UJA-Federation of New York on Monday. "And turning the screw on the sanctions is better in the end."  (JTA)
  • Arabs Move into Jewish Neighborhoods in Jerusalem - Dan Williams
    A growing number of Arabs are moving into Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem. Around Mount Scopus where the Hebrew University is based and many Palestinians study, about 16% of residents are either Arab citizens of Israel or Palestinians, according to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics. Official figures from 2013 show 7.4% of residents of the French Hill neighborhood are Arabs, and Rawya Mazal, an Israeli Arab realtor, believes the true non-Jewish population is closer to 20%.
        In Pisgat Ze'ev and Neve Yaacov, 1 to 2% of residents are now Israeli Arab or Palestinian, numbering several hundred families. Sabrine Jabber, 26, is a Muslim Arab who has spent half her life in Neve Yaakov. "My neighbors know me and I know them. We get on fine."  (Reuters)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Attack in Syria "Reveals New Hizbullah Smuggling Route" - Roi Kais
    The purported attack by Israel against weapons depots in Syria on Sunday has revealed new smuggling routes into Lebanon, Asharq Al-Awsat reported Monday. The airstrike at Dimas occurred 40 km. from the traditional smuggling routes between Syria and Lebanon.
        Rami Abdul Rahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, "the Dimas area contains weapons caches, including at least one with rockets." He said they were storage facilities that had become a repository for Hizbullah weapons and that Hizbullah was believed to command some of them, despite the fact that Syria's Fourth Division was officially in control. Rahman added that the evidence suggested Hizbullah was concentrating its rockets in the facilities before transporting them to Lebanon. The Saudi newspaper Al Watan quoted Syrian opposition sources who said the facilities were utterly destroyed. (Ynet News)
        See also Israel Set to Keep Targeting Game-Changing Hizbullah Arms - Nicholas Blanford
    Israel's airstrikes in the Damascus area Sunday marked the eighth separate sortie against advanced weapons systems destined for Hizbullah since January 2013, when Israel launched its policy of pre-emptive raids against stockpiles of what it considers "game-changing" weapons. Syria, despite acknowledging the air raids, is unlikely to respond directly. Its military capabilities are overstretched in confronting rebel forces and it cannot afford to risk an escalation with the powerful Israeli military.
        If Hizbullah was to retaliate to Sunday's strikes, its options are fewer than earlier in the year. The Syrian regime has lost ground in the Golan Heights to rebel forces in the past three months which has reduced Hizbullah's ability to use the area as an alternative theater of retaliation. Israel's policy of attacking "game-changing" weapons systems will likely continue as long as targets can be identified, irrespective of whether they are in Syria or Lebanon. (Daily Star-Lebanon)
  • U.S. Christian Plotted to Blow Up Muslim Holy Sites - Eli Senyor and Itay Blumental
    Adam Everett Livix, 30, an American Christian, was indicted Monday for plotting to blow up Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem, the Israel Justice Ministry said Tuesday. According to the indictment, Livix passed himself off as a member of the elite American Navy SEALS. In October, Livix asked his roommate, a serving soldier in the IDF, to help him obtain explosive material. Last week, police went to arrest Livix at his 7th-floor apartment, but he initially escaped by leaping onto a 6th-story patio before finally being apprehended.
        According to the Israel Security Agency, Livix arrived in 2013 and lived in the Palestinian Authority - in Hebron and in Bethlehem. He entered Israel and has been staying in the country illegally. (Ynet News)
  • Israel Decries "Unfounded" Amnesty International Gaza Report - Stuart Winer
    Israel on Tuesday deplored an Amnesty International report accusing it of war crimes during the summer conflict in Gaza. The Foreign Ministry said the group offered "a decontextualized description of events, while relying heavily on testimonies gathered by unnamed local 'fieldworkers,' who are not identified and whose credibility is never questioned." The ministry said the report failed to "investigate the systematic and deliberate firing of rockets and mortars at Israel's civilian population by an internationally-recognized jihadist terror group."
        The Foreign Ministry noted safety measures the IDF employed to avoid civilian causalities that were "unprecedented in modern warfare." "The IDF does not intentionally target civilians or civilian property; its activity is dictated by international law, is directed against military objectives, and abides by the principle of proportionality."  (Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
  • Iran's Missile Arsenal and the Nuclear Negotiations - Farzin Nadimi
    Iran already possesses the region's largest arsenal of ballistic missiles and rockets, and the Islamic Republic has developed the only satellite-launch capability in the Middle East besides Israel. In May, Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan ruled out any negotiations over Iran's missile arsenal. It would be unrealistic to expect Iran to unilaterally stop its missile program, or dismantle its arsenal, but the Iranians might still be encouraged or even compelled to undertake transparency measures and adhere to certain capping mechanisms.
        Considering that the Iranians could well develop maximum-range IRBMs and ICBMs by the coming decade, the international emphasis now should be on establishing a viable monitoring regime for Iranian missile efforts. (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
  • Iran Nuclear Talks: What's Happened So Far - Paul Richter
    Diplomats seeking to limit Iran's nuclear program have long said they wouldn't keep bargaining if officials in Tehran proved unwilling to budge. But after a year of negotiations and two missed deadlines, the diplomats have done just that, failing to meet the latest cutoff date, Nov. 24, and instead extended negotiations for seven months.
        Iran, which considers its program a symbol of national achievement, has rejected demands to dismantle its $100-billion nuclear infrastructure. And by 2021, it wants to expand its enrichment capability twentyfold by adding thousands of centrifuges.
        When the latest talks ended, division remained on several key issues: how much enrichment capacity Iran would be allowed to keep, how long the agreement should last, how closely Iran's program would be monitored, how much nuclear research it could conduct, and how it would redesign the Arak reactor. (Los Angeles Times)
Observations:

How the Islamic State (ISIL) Threatens the West - Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi (Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)

  • The Islamic State is an enemy of Western civilization because of its stringent implementation of Shariah (Islamic law), which includes mass killing of unbelievers and apostates, public beheading and crucifixion, chopping off thieves' hands and legs, flogging cigarette smokers and alcohol consumers, allowing sex slaves, stifling with an iron fist any opposition, and depriving people of basic human rights.
  • The war in the Levant is not a political or territorial conflict that can be resolved by negotiations and compromise. The Islamic State leaves no doubt as to its determination to relentlessly conduct jihad to spread the rule of Islam and the word of Allah, first in the Middle East and later in Europe and North America.
  • The cornerstone of the Islamic State's publicly reiterated strategic goal is to conquer Rome, the capital of Italy and home of the Vatican, in order to strike the symbol of Christianity. Spain is portrayed as a formerly Islamic occupied country, as are other parts of Europe, and all must be liberated. This is not a far-fetched, harmless fantasy; it is an actual plan of action.
  • The Islamic State calls upon all Muslims to initiate attacks throughout the world with the explicit purpose of indiscriminately killing nonbelievers by all available means. The Islamic State threatens our strategic interests because of its unwavering determination to pursue a foreign policy of jihad in which Western civilization is the prime enemy.

    IDF Lt. Col. (ret.) Jonathan D. Halevi is a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and co-founder of the Orient Research Group Ltd. This report is based on his presentation to the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the House of Commons of the Parliament of Canada on December 9, 2014.

        See also Video: Another Canadian Jihadi - Yahya (John) Maguire - Ezra Levant interviews Jonathan Halevi (Sun News-Canada)

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