• Israel and Turkey Nearing Deal to Normalize Relations - Deniz Zeyrek
  Turkey and Israel are nearing a deal to end strained relations stemming from the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010. Israel apologized to Turkey in 2013 and agreed on compensation for the Turkish victims. Turkey's third condition was the lifting of the blockade on Gaza.
      Under the agreement, all aid from Turkey will be delivered to Gaza through Israel's Ashdod port. Israel will enable Turkey to build a hospital and desalinization plant in Gaza and, together with Germany, to build an electric power plant. "The most important thing here is lifting the isolation of Gaza for humanitarian purposes," Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on June 17. (Hurriyet-Turkey)
      See also Israel: Turkey Accord "Very Close" - Herb Keinon
  Israel and Turkey are "very close" to a rapprochement agreement, Yaakov Nagel, acting head of Israel's National Security Council, told Israel Radio on Tuesday. According to media reports, Turkey will prevent Hamas from acting against Israel from its territory. (Jerusalem Post)
• South Korea Warns of Islamic State Threat to U.S. Bases - Jesse Johnson
  Islamic State has gathered information on 77 U.S. and NATO air force facilities around the globe and is urging its supporters to attack them, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a statement Sunday. Islamic State has listed both South Korea and Japan as terrorist targets since last year.
      The National Institute for Defense Studies Japan, the Defense Ministry’s core research arm, said in its 2016 East Asia Strategic Review released in March that Islamic State was becoming a growing threat to East Asia, including Japan. This was highlighted by the kidnapping and killing of Japanese nationals. (Japan Times)
• Islamic State Expands with Six Armies on Three Continents - Rowan Scarborough
  The Islamic State has created at least six functioning armies outside its Iraq-Syria base, the Congressional Research Service said in a June 14 report, "Islamic State and U.S. Policy." Islamic State is metastasizing globally by attracting waves of henchmen in Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Afghanistan. The six franchises are not simply cells but viable armies with training bases, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank weapons, and hundreds, if not thousands, of fighters.
      The Islamic State in Egypt, which may have more than 1,000 members, claimed responsibility for bringing down Metrojet Flight 9268 over Sinai, killing all 224 people onboard on Oct. 31, 2015. The Islamic State in Saudi Arabia has taken credit for a series of attacks since 2014. The Islamic State in Libya has as many as 6,000 fighters. The Islamic State in Nigeria, also known as Boko Haram, has killed thousands of innocents. The Islamic State in Khorasan Province, Afghanistan, has 3,000 fighters including hundreds of ex-Taliban. The Islamic State in Yemen has unleashed a series of attacks on Shiite mosques. (Washington Times)

• Israel Blasts Europe's "Colonialist" Peace Initiative - Raphael Ahren
  Europe's approach to Israel appears to be a resurrection of its past colonialism, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Emmanuel Nahshon told the Times of Israel on Tuesday. "When I look at the sequence of the EU implementing labeling [for settlement products] and now the endorsement of an international conference, I feel that those are the ghosts of a colonial European past coming back to life....They have no credibility whatsoever if they deal with this [Israeli-Palestinian] conflict without dealing with the major issues that are far more important to Europe and the world, starting with the Syrian civil war, and challenges that Europe itself is facing, such as Brexit, immigration and Islamic terror."
      "Whenever you are a European leader unpopular at home, and whenever you face insurmountable challenges, then there's nothing like organizing a conference on Israel to create a false agenda that will attract attention elsewhere....If the EU really wants to promote the peace process it should invest all its energies to bring the Palestinians back to the negotiation table." That is the only way to achieve progress, as evidenced by Israel's peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, he said. (Times of Israel)
• Palestinian Mistakenly Killed during Palestinian Attack on Jerusalem-Tel Aviv Highway - Tovah Lazaroff
  The IDF is investigating the shooting death of a 15-year-old and the wounding of four other Palestinian teens who were driving near a violent Palestinian attack on Israeli motorists on Route 443 early Tuesday. The teens were in a car on a Palestinian road underneath Route 443, just as soldiers were shooting at suspects who had thrown stones and firebombs at cars on the highway, a main artery between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. "A preliminary investigation showed that they were close to the scene but were not involved in the violence," an IDF spokeswoman said.
      Israel Foreign Ministry spokesman Emmanuel Nahshon said that were it not for the difficult security situation that is entirely the fault of Palestinian incitement and terrorism, "Israel would not have to use force to protect its citizens." Unfortunately, Nahshon said, "the list of Israelis killed by rocks thrown by Palestinians on the roads is a long list, and every injured Israeli proves the need to use security measures against this phenomenon." Over the past eight months, Palestinian attacks have killed 34 people, including two American citizens. (Jerusalem Post)

• To Defeat ISIS, We Must Take the Iranian Threat Seriously - Dennis Ross
  To defeat ISIS we must blunt its appeal. ISIS claims to have a divine mandate. Suffering military defeats can demonstrate the hollowness of this claim. Ultimately, we need the Sunnis - clerics, tribes and governments - to discredit and replace ISIS on the ground. If Sunnis are politically and economically excluded and repressed, it will be only a matter of time before we see the next incarnation of ISIS.
      Sunnis see a predatory Iran using Shiite militias to dominate the region and fear the U.S. is ready to acquiesce in their dominance. Until we can show we take the Iranian threat seriously, and will work with our Sunni partners to raise the cost to Iran of its destabilizing actions, the Sunnis will be unlikely to play the role that only they can against ISIS. The writer, counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, was a senior Middle East adviser to President Obama from 2009 to 2011. (USA Today)
• Who's Winning the Middle East's Cold War? - Robert Harvey
  There are few problems in the wider Middle East that cannot be traced back to the power rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. For the moment, the Iranians seem to be riding high. Following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's decision to agree to an international deal limiting Iran's nuclear capability, Western sanctions have been all but removed. Meanwhile, Iran's creeping de facto annexation of parts of Iraq - astonishingly, with American acceptance - continues. Iran also has an overwhelming manpower advantage, with a population of 77 million, compared to Saudi Arabia's 28 million.
      The Saudis believe that their great traditional ally, the U.S., betrayed them by concluding the nuclear deal with Iran. Meanwhile, they fear that the chaos in neighboring Iraq has exposed them to chronic strategic risks. Yet the long-term outcome of this cold war is not hard to predict. The Shia might be able to maintain influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon (through Hizbullah), but some 90% of Arabs are Sunni Muslims, and thus potential Saudi allies. The writer is a former member of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee. (Project Syndicate)

The "Occupation" Ended 20 Years Ago - Efraim Karsh (Jerusalem Post)

• The declaration of principles (DOP, or Oslo I) signed on the White House lawn in September 1993 by the PLO and the Israeli government provided for Palestinian self-rule in the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip.
• On September 28, 1995, despite the PA's abysmal failure to clamp down on terrorist activities in the territories under its control, the two parties signed an interim agreement, and by the end of the year Israeli forces had been withdrawn from the West Bank's populated areas with the exception of Hebron (where redeployment was completed in early 1997).
• On January 20, 1996, elections to the Palestinian Council were held, and shortly afterward both the Israeli Civil Administration and military government were dissolved.
• Israel relinquished control over virtually all of the West Bank's 1.4 million residents. Since that time, nearly 60% of them have lived entirely under Palestinian jurisdiction (Area A). Another 40% live in towns where the PA exercises civil authority but Israel has "overriding responsibility for security" (Area B). Some 2% of Palestinians continue to live in areas where Israel has complete control, but even there the PA maintains "functional jurisdiction"(Area C).
• In short, since the beginning of 1996, and certainly following the completion of the redeployment from Hebron in January 1997, 99% of the Palestinian population of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip has not lived under Israeli occupation. As the virulent anti-Israel and anti-Jewish media, school system and religious incitement can attest to, during these years, any presence of a foreign occupation has been virtually non-existent.
• This means that the presentation of terrorism as a natural response to the "occupation" is not only completely unfounded but the inverse of the truth.
  
  The writer is emeritus professor of Middle East and Mediterranean Studies at Kings College London, and a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Bar-Ilan University.