(Jerusalem Post) Yonah Jeremy Bob - To achieve a new and improved security situation in the north, Israel has examined the possibility of keeping at least two full divisions of IDF soldiers on the northern border for many years/indefinitely, instead of the single division which was there pre-Oct. 7. Israel has succeeded in clearing out around 90% of Hizbullah's Radwan special forces and close to 100% of the lookout towers which were in southern Lebanon, including continual airstrikes on later attempts to reconstitute certain lookout positions. During the current war, the IDF has killed around 500 Hizbullah fighters, including over half of its southern Lebanon commanders, compared to fewer than 30 Israelis killed in the north. By December, the IDF shifted from light proportional responses to disproportionate counterattacks, even 100 km. deep into Lebanon. Israel has failed to get Hizbullah to stop firing rockets, anti-tank missiles, and drones at the north, but it seems relatively clear that a ceasefire with Hamas would achieve that. During the November 23-30 ceasefire with Hamas, Hizbullah unilaterally stopped firing on Israel. Based on a series of high-level defense briefings, I maintain that the mega war between Israel and Hizbullah is not going to happen during this current conflict. In two to five years, quite possibly, but not in the coming months. Neither side's military leaders want to have a big war now.
2024-07-11 00:00:00Full ArticleBACK Visit the Daily Alert Archive