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Obama's Mideast Vision

[Daily Star-Lebanon] Michael Young - Obama feels that an America forever signaling its desire to go home will make things better by making America more likable. That's not how the Middle East works. Politics abhor a vacuum, and as everyone sees how eager the U.S. is to leave, the more they will try to fill the ensuing vacuum to their advantage, and the more intransigent they will be when Washington seeks political solutions to prepare its getaway. That explains the upsurge of bombings in Iraq lately, and it explains why the Taliban feel no need to surrender anything in Afghanistan. Engagement of Iran and Syria has also come up short. However, there was always something counterintuitive in lowering the pressure on Iran in the hope that this would generate progress in finding a solution to its nuclear program. Where the Obama administration erred was in not seeing how dialogue would buy Iran more time to advance its nuclear projects, precisely what the Iranians wanted, while breaking the momentum of international efforts to force Tehran to concede something - for example, temporary suspension of uranium enrichment. For Obama to rebuild such momentum today seems virtually impossible, when the U.S. itself has made it abundantly clear that it believes war is a bad idea. In Syria, the Assad regime has shown no signs of breaking away from Iran, even as it has facilitated suicide attacks in Iraq and encouraged Hamas' intransigence in inter-Palestinian negotiations in Cairo. The Obama administration can, of course, take the passive view that Syria is entitled to destabilize its neighbors in order to enhance its leverage; or it can behave like a superpower and make the undermining of vital U.S. interests very costly for Bashar Assad. But it certainly cannot defend its vital interests by adopting a passive approach. With respect to the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, Obama has taken Israel on over its settlements. However, there is more to Palestinian-Israeli peace than settlements. Obama is exerting considerable political capital to confront Israel, but it may be capital wasted at a moment when Hamas can still veto any breakthrough from the Palestinian side and render the whole enterprise meaningless. But how can the U.S. weaken Hamas when improving relations with its main regional sponsors, Iran and Syria, remains a centerpiece of American efforts?
2009-08-28 08:00:00
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