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In Tehran, There's No Going Back

[Weekly Standard] Reuel Marc Gerecht - What's happening in Iran now is all about democracy, about the questioning of authority. Democracy in Iran implies regime change. Khamenei has forced Mousavi and the people behind him into opposition to himself and the political system he leads. Unless Mousavi gives up, a permanent opposition to Khamenei and his constitutionally ordained supremacy has now formed. The smart money should still be on a coup by the Revolutionary Guard if Khamenei does not stand firm against Mousavi. The Guard's commanders, who are among the most ideologically committed Islamists in Iran, certainly would be willing to kill their countrymen to protect the system they cherish. But there may be cracks in the rank and file's esprit that are hard for outsiders to see. No matter what happens, the Islamic Republic as we have known it is probably over. All regimes need some sense of legitimacy to survive. The illusion of representative government backing the Islamic revolution has been inextricable from Iran's identity since 1979. If Iran collapses into just another military dictatorship, this populist raison d'etre goes with it. In addition, if Khamenei ends up giving a green light to the slaughter of young Iranians on the streets, he'll probably lose the clergy. A coup by the Revolutionary Guard would be an unmitigated disaster in the eyes of most mullahs, who would go into permanent opposition. The writer is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
2009-06-30 06:00:00
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