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Why the Iranian Alliance Will Fail

[Ha'aretz] Jonathan Spyer - In the course of 2009, the Iranian-led bloc of states and movements has suffered a series of setbacks. Hamas' belief that it could deter Israel from a major ground operation in Gaza derived from a key item of faith guiding the Iran-led alliance - namely, that Israel is a tired society no longer capable of successful national defense. But Israel demonstrated its ability to deliver a telling military blow to Hamas-led Gaza, at minimum cost to itself. It also showed that the asymmetric-warfare methods developed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and applied by Hamas in Gaza are not foolproof. The June 7 elections in Lebanon delivered an additional blow to the Iran-led bloc with the unexpected defeat of Hizbullah, a blow to the aura of invincibility and inevitability that Hizbullah has worked to weave around itself. However, the most decisive setback to this bloc has been the ongoing unrest in Iran where the demonstrations against the rigged presidential elections have made a mockery of the claim that Iran represents "popular will" in the region against corrupt pro-Western regimes. The regime is increasingly seen as just another Middle Eastern government holding power against the will of its own people. The writer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center at the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya.
2009-08-07 06:00:00
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