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Will More Sanctions Against Iran Work?

(Middle East Strategy at Harvard) Raymond Tanter - Heightened fears about Iran's secret nuclear capabilities and stumbling nuclear talks point toward yet another round of UN sanctions. Previous U.S. and UN sanctions against Iran have been "smart" sanctions - targeting individuals and entities related to specific behavior. The next round, likely to involve restricting Iran's imports of gasoline, represents a different approach, designed to have a macroeconomic impact to change the strategic calculus of Iran's rulers. However, despite Reliance (of India) cutting off gasoline sales to Iran, it is doubtful that Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Lukoil, Zhuhai Zhenrong, or any of Iran's other gasoline suppliers would sacrifice lucrative contracts with Iran because of a threat of being cut off from U.S. government contracts. Russia and China could lose economic investments in Iran if those countries participated in gasoline restrictions. Any economic pressure, even if it is not decisive, is welcome. And producing consensus for another sanctions round is useful in case force has to be used later. But there is little leverage to compel international corporations to suspend gasoline sales to Iran, and Tehran has options for plugging the shortfall and dampening economic damage. The writer is professor emeritus of political science at the University of Michigan.
2009-12-03 10:22:45
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