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Who Loses the Iran Game?

(Washington Post) David Ignatius - How will the confrontation over Iran's nuclear program evolve during the next year? If a simulation game played at Harvard last week is any guide, Iran will be closer to having the bomb, and America will fail to obtain tough UN sanctions; diplomatic relations with Russia, China and Europe will be strained; and Israel will be threatening unilateral military action. The simulation was organized by Graham Allison, the head of the Belfer Center at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. It was animated by the key players: Nicholas Burns, former undersecretary of state, as President Obama; and Dore Gold, Israel's former ambassador to the UN, as Prime Minister Netanyahu. When America asked for assurances that Israel wouldn't attack Iran without U.S. permission, the Israeli prime minister, as played by Gold, refused to make that pledge, insisting that Israel alone must decide how to protect its security. Whereupon Burns' president warned that if Israel did strike, contrary to U.S. interests, Washington might publicly denounce the attack. Gold said the game clarified for him a worrying difference of opinion between U.S. and Israeli leaders: "The U.S. is moving away from preventing a nuclear Iran to containing a nuclear Iran - with deterrence based on the Cold War experience. That became clear in the simulation. Israel, in contrast, still believes a nuclear Iran must be prevented."
2009-12-07 10:21:10
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