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Only Much Harsher Sanctions Can Halt Iran Nuclear Program

(Ha'aretz) Ephraim Kam - By rejecting the P5+1 offer, the Iranian regime has placed itself in a difficult position and played into the hands of the American administration. The country is perceived as having torpedoed the dialogue initiated by Washington, thereby signaling that reaching an agreement with it on its nuclear program is out of the question. Rejection of the deal by Iran has also made an opponent of Russia, which had previously blocked efforts to impose sanctions on the country, but has now expressed readiness to join those efforts. As the level of international confidence in Iran's behavior was steadily sinking, President Ahmadinejad proceeded to pour fuel on the fire with the publication of a number of harsh statements. The dominant mood within the Iranian leadership at present is one of a lack of faith in the intentions of the Obama administration, a reluctance to enter into a genuine dialogue with it, and suspicion that Washington would not have carried out its part in the uranium deal if Iran had adopted it. There is a definite chance that the Americans will mobilize international support - including that of Russia and China - for the imposition of a new round of sanctions against Iran, but the prospects are that they will not be very far reaching, and in such circumstances Iran sees no need to give in, as long as it attains its strategic goal: achieving nuclear weapons capability. If Iran is to be stopped, two conditions need to be met: Much harsher sanctions must be imposed, and the Iranians must believe they truly face the threat of a military operation if they do not suspend their nuclear program. At present, neither of these conditions sufficiently exists. Col. (res.) Ephraim Kam, Ph.D., formerly of the IDF Military Intelligence research division, is deputy head of the Institute for National Security Studies.
2009-12-14 09:08:03
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