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The Iranian Incursion into Iraq in Context

(Stratfor) George Friedman - A small number of Iranian troops entered Iraq where they took control of an oil well and raised the Iranian flag on Dec. 18. The incursion was shaped to make the point that Iran has options that it might use regardless of whether the U.S. chooses sanctions or war. It made this point without forcing the U.S. into precipitous action. The location was politically ambiguous. The force was small. Casualties were avoided. At the same time, it was an action that snapped a lot of people to attention. Oil prices climbed. Baghdad and Washington scrambled to try to figure what was going on, and for a while Washington was clearly at a loss, driving home the fact that the U.S. doesn't always respond quickly and efficiently to surprises initiated by the other side.
2009-12-22 08:00:09
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