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The War and Peace Index

(Newsweek) Dan Ephron - For more than 15 years now, two Tel Aviv University political scientists, working with pollsters, have been tracking Israeli opinion about the peace process that began with the 1993 Oslo accord. In recent years only about 40% of Israelis say they long for a rejuvenated peace process with the Palestinians. An even smaller number, about 20%, believe such talks would amount to anything - even though more Israelis than ever now say they're willing to live alongside an independent Palestinian state. What's changed is that more Israelis than ever also seem to feel little urgency about reaching that goal. While the absence of peace is exacting a very low price, Israeli attempts to forge a peace deal have exacted a very high one. Most Israelis, in this analysis, associate the Oslo accords not just with the historic handshake on the White House lawn but with the first suicide attacks by Palestinians. Ask Israelis what they got in return for their offer at Camp David nearly a decade ago to hand over most of the West Bank and they'll point to the second intifada. In Israeli minds, Palestinians should have been grateful for the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza - instead they fired rockets at Israel. As Tamar Hermann, one of the political scientists who run the War and Peace Index, told me recently, "Israelis are looking around and saying, 'We've achieved normalcy. We don't have bombings. The stock market's OK. Why should we launch another messy peace process that may rock the boat again?'"
2010-01-04 08:43:05
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