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Iran Hasn't Won Yet

(The Australian) Jonathan Spyer - The salient strategic fact in the Middle East today is the Iranian drive for regional hegemony. This goal of hegemony is being pursued through the assembling of a bloc of states and organizations under Iranian leadership. The pro-Iranian bloc includes Syria, Sudan, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas among the Palestinians, and the Houthi rebel forces in northern Yemen. The Iranian nuclear program is an aspect of this ambition. A nuclear capability is meant to form the ultimate insurance for the Iranian regime as it aggressively builds its influence across the region. This Iranian objective is being promoted by a rising hardline conservative elite within the Iranian regime and is personified by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Their aim is a second Islamic revolution that would revive the original fire of the revolution of 1979. They appear to be aiming for the augmenting of clerical rule with a streamlined, brutal police-security state, under the banner of Islam. Building Iranian power and influence throughout the Middle East is an integral part of their strategy. The ongoing unrest in Iran probably does not constitute an immediate danger to the regime. But it surely indicates that large numbers of Iranians have no desire to see their country turned into the instrument of permanent Islamic revolution and resistance envisaged by the hardline conservatives. In addition, the Iranian resistance model failed in a straight fight with the Israeli Defense Forces one year ago in Gaza when Hamas' 100-man "Iranian unit" suffered near destruction. The Hamas regime in Gaza managed to kill six IDF soldiers in the entire war. This is a failure, recorded as such by all regional observers. The writer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya, Israel.
2010-01-08 08:36:02
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